From site to system: Approaches for producing system-wide estimates of fish habitat in large rivers

Worldwide, many productive rivers are dam-regulated and rely on flow management strategies that must balance support of ecological processes with human water use. One component of evaluating this balance is to understand ecological consequences of alternative flow management strategies, which has often been accomplished by coupling population dynamics models with models that relate streamflow to habitat availability and quality. Numerous methods assign habitat availability to locations within a river basin: These include fine-scale field-measured values that are extrapolated to other locations within the basin having similar physical characteristics or equation-driven values created by functions of model-predicted values of physical characteristics. The array of options for creating habitat models is evolving rapidly as high-resolution remote-sensing data becomes more accessible and computational capacity improves. Our objective was to identify trade-offs among approaches that assign habitat relationships to large rivers and to create a decision support tool to supplement choices of extent and granularity. Using a selection of case studies that represent a breadth of scales and diverse trade-offs, we demonstrate the need for a transparent process of data evaluation and assessment to determine the appropriate fit for model scope or context that best supports management needs and recognize sources of uncertainty. The structured approach proposed here aims at improving future model development and refine population dynamics models that inform the management of rivers.     

Surface and subsurface water coupled ecological model in a mangrove swamp,Ishigaki Island,Japan

A surface and subsurface water coupled ecological model is presented to describe material cycling in a mangrove area, to which an ecosystem model is applied in order to account for chemical and biological reactions as well as physical processes. In this model, the nutrient transport from the groundwater to the river is estimated by the combined use of field measurements and numerical simulation of subsurface flow. The water movement and temporal variations in nutrient concentration obtained from the numerical simulation show a good agreement with the field observations, indicating that this model is valid for simulating material cycling in a mangrove area. The numerical simulation reveals that the supply of dissolved nutrients from the mangrove to the coastal area during spring tides is about 1.6 to 5.5 times larger than that during neap tides.     

Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change

An original modeling framework for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been implemented in the evaluation of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, vulnerability and resiliency of the Red River Basin flood protection system (Manitoba, Canada). The modeling framework allows for an evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model. The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change of flood patterns: flood starting time, peak value and timing. The results show increase in the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow volume in the Red River basin under the future climate change scenarios. Most of the floods generated using three different climate models had an earlier starting time and peak time. The assessment of the performance of Red River flood protection system is based on the flood flows, the capacity of flood control structures and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. In the Assiniboine River Basin, higher reliabilities at downstream locations are obtained indicating that Shellmouth reservoir plays an important role in reducing downstream flooding. However, a different trend was identified in the Red River Basin. The study results show that flood protection capacity of the Red River infrastructure is sufficient under low reliability criteria but may not be sufficient under high reliability criteria.     

A one hundred year review of the socioeconomic and ecological systems of Lake St. Clair,North America

There is a growing concern about continued impairment of aquatic ecosystems resulting from increasing population size, land use, climate change, and the feedbacks that may harm human well-being. We describe a 100 year multi-disciplinary overview of changes in Lake St. Clair, North America to identify knowledge gaps and needs to build the foundation for creating coupled human and natural system models. Our historical analysis indicates that the socioeconomic dynamics are inextricably linked to the urban dynamics of the Detroit metropolitan area. Environmental degradation and human health issues led to the adoption of relevant policies, including construction of wastewater treatment facilities by the 1960s. Climate trends during the 100-year period indicate a wetter region, which is influencing lake levels. Since the mid-1980s and 90s invasive zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugenis) have significantly altered the ecological structure and function of the lake. Waterborne illnesses due to contaminated drinking water were once an issue but current human health risks have shifted to contaminated recreational waters and coastal pollution. Key research needs for building coupled models include geo-referencing socioeconomic and ecological data to accurately represent the processes occurring within the political and watershed boundaries; assessing ecosystem services for human well-being; and developing research hypotheses and management options regarding interactions among land use, people and the lake. Lake St. Clair has gone through extensive changes, both socioeconomically and ecologically over the last 100 years and we suggest that it serves as a useful case study for the larger Great Lakes region.     

深圳河流域内陆侧洪涝风险分析

基于致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体与防灾减灾能力四大风险要素对深圳河流域内陆侧的洪涝风险进行分析,构建以雨、洪、潮叠加的复杂致灾因子危险性和高度城市化带来的高易损性为特征的沿海城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,用层次分析法修正熵权法以确定评价指标的权重,得到洪涝的危险性风险、易损性风险和综合风险区划。结果表明：福田区西南部至罗湖区西南部是极高危险性与极高易损性的统一体,在防洪减灾中应予以较全方位的重点防护,其他低易损性且高危险性地区只需根据主导的危险性因子给予有所侧重的防护措施;构建的沿海城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系可为政府防灾减灾规划与防洪应急响应提供必要的参考依据,亦可为防灾资源分配和灾后恢复重建提供有效信息。     

Morphodynamic signatures derived from daily surface elevation dynamics can explain the morphodynamic development of tidal flats

Understanding the sensitivity of tidal flats to environmental changes is challenging. Currently, most studies rely on process-based models to systematically explain the morphodynamic evolution of tidal flats. In this study, we proposed an alternative empirical approach to explore tidal flat dynamics using statistical indices based on long-term time series of daily surface elevation development. Surface elevation dynamic (SED) indices focus on the magnitude and period of surface elevation changes, while morphodynamic signature (MDS) indices relate sediment dynamics to environmental drivers. The statistical analyses were applied to an intervention site in the Netherlands to determine the effect of recently constructed groynes on the tidal flat. Using these analyses, we were able to (1) detect a reduction in the daily SED and (2) determine that the changes in the daily SED were predominantly caused by the reduction in wave impact between the groynes rather than the reduction in tidal currents. Overall, the presented results showed that the combination of novel statistical indices provides new insights into the trajectories of tidal flats, ecosystem functioning, and sensitivity to physical drivers (wind and tides). Finally, we suggested how the SED and MDS indices may help to explore the future trajectories and climate resilience of intertidal habitats.     

基于ArcGIS对广东省暴雨洪涝灾害风险的初步研究

选用暴雨洪涝灾害的致灾因子、孕灾因子、承灾因子和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标构建洪涝灾害风险评估体系,运用ArcGIS对广东省暴雨洪涝灾害进行风险区划,结果显示,广东省暴雨洪灾高风险区域主要在粤东、粤西沿海区域和北江中下游清远附近区域。     

区域复合系统视域下广东省水资源承载力研究

建立健全水资源承载力监测机制是保障区域水安全的重要举措。以影响水资源承载力的复杂多要素作为研究视角,基于经济子系统、水资源子系统、水环境子系统和社会子系统,运用系统动力学方法构建广东省水资源承载力复合系统仿真模型,在验证模型一致性的基础上,提出零参数、节水型、产业结构优化型、环境保护型和综合型5种不同调控情景假设,分析各情景下广东省水资源承载力变动趋势。结果表明:零参数调控情景下水资源承载力变动相对稳定,节水型、产业结构优化型、环境保护型可对区域经济、水资源消耗、可用水资源量和生态环境产生局部改善,而综合调控型情景能够实现各水资源承载力评价指标的系统优化,满足协调推进水资源承载力提升的要求,可为推动节水型社会建设提供决策支持。     

感潮河口平原防洪排涝的探索——以浙江省某河口为例

我国海岸线绵长,河口港湾众多,东南沿海地区在台风季节经常不同程度地受到台风影响。台风期的强降雨和风暴潮给很多地区带来洪涝灾害,造成较大的经济损失。以浙江省某感潮河口地区为例,充分利用河口地区特殊地理条件,提出将河口挡潮闸外移以增加调蓄容积,保障区域防洪排涝安全,并以此作为一种提高沿海感潮河口防洪排涝能力的思路。     

永定河倒虹吸动床模型试验及防护措施研究

模拟4种永定河洪水流量过程,通过水流重力相似、水流阻力相似、泥沙起动相似、水流输沙能力相似、河床变形相似、水流运动时间相似等模型,试验永定河洪水过程对河道的冲刷影响情况.从而确定倒虹吸的防护措施.     

海岸红树林与海啸波相互作用实验研究

2004年发生的印度洋海啸给印度洋沿岸的亚非13个国家造成巨大的经济损失。多份实地考察报告都表明了红树林具有保护海岸的作用。就此,研究海啸波（孤立波）穿过红树林后透射波和反射波的变化情况,实验结果表明：透射波高随着入射波高的增大而增大,随着红树林分布密度的增大而减小;对于一定分布密度的红树林,反射系数和透射系数对入射波...     

LONG‐TERM COTTONWOOD FOREST DYNAMICS ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER,USA

The upper Missouri River bottomland in north‐central Montana, USA, retains much of the physical character it had when traversed by Lewis and Clark around 1805. We used geospatial data to quantify long‐term changes in the distribution of bottomland vegetation, land use patterns and channel planform for a 257‐rkm segment of the Missouri River above Fort Peck Reservoir. This segment is less ecologically altered than downstream segments, but two dams completed in the mid‐1950s have decreased the frequency and magnitude of floods. The area of forest is sparse because of geomorphic setting but, contrary to public perception, has remained relatively constant during the past century. However, the stability of forest area obscures its spatial and temporal dynamics. We used state and transition models to quantify fates and sources of forest during two periods: 1890s–1950s and 1950s–2006. Total forest area was 6% greater in 2006 than it was in the 1890s, largely due to reduced forest loss to erosional processes and gains related to progressive channel narrowing. Channel narrowing resulted in part from human‐caused peak flow attenuation. A modified transition matrix, used to examine future steady‐state conditions, projected little change in forest area; however, these projections are likely an overestimate. The extent to which 2006 forest area represents a transient adjustment to a new flow regime versus a dynamic, quasi–steady state will be determined by the long‐term interplay among hydrologic factors, channel processes, water management and land use practices. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

生态护坡在近河人工湖工程中的应用

本文利用生态护坡工程措施解决了沈阳浑河王家湾人工湖河床破坏严重的险工问题。沿人工湖护坡坡面上半段采用枕状植生袋堆叠形式,下半段采用蜂巢格网护垫形式,并在施工后挑选根茎长的植物种子喷植。观测结果表明:采用枕状植生袋和蜂巢格网护垫相结合的工程措施对稳固沿岸堤防、提高生物多样性和提高防洪能力等均有显著效果。     

黄河下游宽滩区不同运用模式滞洪沉沙效果试验

黄河下游宽滩区既是大洪水期行洪通道,具有滞洪、沉沙功能,又是180多万滩区人民居住场所。如何解决保证滩区群众生命财产安全与自然行滞洪、沉沙功能的发挥这一对矛盾,是治黄工作长期面临的难题之一。通过对比不同滩区运用模式下宽滩区洪水淹没范围、滞洪量和沉沙量,分析宽滩区不同运用模式对滩区滞洪沉沙效果的影响,以期为黄河下游河道治理和宽滩区安全建设提供有力科学依据。研究结果表明,两种洪水条件下无防护堤模式淹没范围均大于防护堤模式;中常洪水条件无防护堤模式滞洪量和沉沙量大于防护堤模式;大洪水条件无防护堤模式总滞洪量稍小于防护堤模式、沉沙量大于防护堤模式;两种洪水条件防护堤模式高村以下窄河段滩区漫滩状况均较无防护堤模式严重。     

基于情景分析技术的太湖流域洪水风险动因与响应分析研究初探

利用情景分析技术对未来可能影响太湖流域洪水灾害的洪水风险动因和响应进行分析研究,初步确定了影响太湖流域未来洪水风险的动因与响应,在动因与响应的识别和描述的基础上,对动因、响应与洪水风险之间的关系进行了分析,并对动因的相对重要性进行大致排序,分析了太湖流域为应对未来洪水风险所采取的响应的影响及其可持续性,总结归纳了太湖流域未来可能发生的极端异常洪水灾害事件。结果表明,降雨等自然气候和城市化等经济社会因素是影响太湖流域未来洪水风险的主要动因;环湖大堤加固工程、城市地下蓄排系统等是可持续性评价指标较好的响应措施。针对太湖流域可能发生的极端异常洪水灾害事件较多,并且影响重大,提出对这些极端异常洪水灾害事件需要更加深入研究,以便得到更进一步的结论。     

英国的洪水风险管理

为了减少洪水造成的破坏和损失，近年来世界各国的洪水管理已从单一的防洪工程向洪水风险管理转变。除了能进行有效的洪水防御外，洪水风险管理还被认为是维持生物多样性、河流及海岸生态系统的重要手段。回顾了英国的洪水风险管理及其组成体系，并分析讨论了未来可能面临的问题及应对措施。结果表明，随着全球气候变化及社会经济发展，洪水发生的频率及其影响正在增加。因此，如何全面综合考虑降雨、径流、河流、洪泛区以及人类活动、社会经济规划、发展和管理等诸多因素是实施洪水风险管理面临的重要课题。     

北京市河道存在的问题及治理对策

北京城市河道存在排水防洪未完全达标、河道水质污染严重、河道周边生态与环境恶劣等问题.要采取加强规划、进行"雨洪利用"、建设滞洪区、改进产汇流计算方法等综合措施提高河道的防洪能力;采取污水截流、进行河水原位处理及构建河道生物链等措施改善河道水质;采取生态护坡,创造自然河流形态,完善法规建设,加强管理等措施恢复河道的自然生态.     

A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources

A risk assessment model for water shortage was constructed from the risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model was demonstrated in the city of Jinhua in Zhejiang Province, China. The study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective when compared with the traditional model, based on analytical results from a small sample. The risk assessment result was used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. The author advances that the carrying capacity of water resources should be defined as the maximum bearing capacity of water resources for human activity in certain stages of social development under the sound circle of the ecological system. Further study on Jinhua was also performed in the paper, and the result indicates that water shortage in this city is not of the relevant type of water source and can classified in terms of water quality type as well as water conservancy. In order to verify the result of the theoretical investigation in the present paper, the author also simulates the dynamic changing process of carrying capacity of water resources under the condition of enforcement of the future policy in the city. The simulation uses the model of system dynamics (SD), according to the historical data of the city over twenty years and the governmental standard for comprehensively building a comfortable society by 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that the primary scheme of unilaterally pursuing the fast development of the economy at the expense of environment and the secondary scheme of taking environmental protection as the primary goal via slowing of development of the economy are undesirable for Jinhua. Furthermore, a scheme of simultaneously giving consideration to both economic development and environmental protection should be the preferred scheme. However, if the present amount of water supply is constantly maintained in the near future, the requirement for water supply will not be satisfied under the balanced considerations of economy and environment. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region can be effectively improved only under the situation of not only strengthening the investment in environmental protection but also increasing income and reducing expenditure year after year.     

流域未来洪水风险动因响应关系定性分析方法的研究

流域未来洪水风险的情景分析,涉及到众多自然因素、人为因素以及这些因素之间复杂的相互作用关系。为构建未来洪水风险情景、开展未来预见研究,借鉴英国已有的研究经验,提出了流域未来洪水风险动因响应关系的定性分析方法,该方法有助于清楚地分析洪水灾害系统中各因素之间的关系、各因素影响洪水风险的作用机制,以及它们影响未来洪水风险的趋势。文中以太湖流域为研究对象,通过描述影响流域未来洪水风险的重要因素,建立起各因素之间的洪水风险动因响应关系,并判断了各因素影响未来洪水风险的重要性和不确定程度,从而为研究流域未来洪水风险提供了必要的基础信息。     

极端条件下堆石坝溃坝风险及应急预案

考虑洪水漫顶条件下的溃决模式,拟定汛限水位、校核洪水位与校核洪水流量、多年平均入库流量的极端组合方式,采用DB-IWHR模型计算堆石坝溃坝洪水过程;利用MIKE 21模拟洪水演进过程,取支流历史最大洪水过程并使其与干支流洪峰遭遇,评估洪水对下游的淹没风险.以涔天河大坝为例,根据库容、堆石材料参数等确定不同入库洪水组合方...