Simplified Approximation Procedure for Performance-Based Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential

Performance-based procedures for evaluation of liquefaction potential have been shown to provide more consistent and accurate indications of the actual likelihood of liquefaction in areas of different seismicity than conventional procedures. The process of performing a complete site-specific performance-based evaluation of liquefaction potential, however, requires numerous calculations involving quantities that many geotechnical engineers are not familiar with. This paper shows how the results of complete performance-based analyses can be expressed in terms of a scalar parameter corresponding to a particular element of soil in a reference soil profile, and presents procedures for adjustment of that parameter to account for site-specific conditions that differ from those of the reference profile. The procedures are shown to closely approximate the results of complete site-specific performance-based evaluations. Engineers can then use mapped values of the scalar parameter, along with the recommended adjustment procedure, to realize the benefits of a performance-based evaluation without having to actually perform the performance-based calculations.     

Liquefaction Opportunity Mapping via Seismic Wave Energy

An empirical, energy-based methodology for liquefaction hazard assessment and microzonation mapping is presented. The approach is probabilistic, considers the uncertainty in the liquefaction criterion, and is applicable to most earthquake-induced liquefaction analyses. The examples illustrated are for water-saturated sands at level ground. The energy of ground shaking is estimated from the Fourier amplitude spectra of the incident waves. The susceptible materials are characterized only by their corrected standard penetration test value N? and overburden pressure σ0. Illustrative microzonation maps of liquefaction opportunity are shown for the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Two types of maps are presented, one showing the average return period of liquefaction occurrence (for given N? and σ0), and another one showing distribution of N? with equal probability to liquefy during 50 years exposure (for given σ0). An advantage of the method is that the result is given directly in terms of in situ albeit simple soil characteristics rather than in terms of laboratory tests and peak acceleration. Possible applications of the computed opportunity maps are discussed.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Sliding Displacement of Slopes: Scalar and Vector Approaches

Sliding block displacements often are used to evaluate the potential for ground failure due to slope instability. The procedures used to assess sliding block displacement typically use deterministic or pseudoprobabilistic approaches, in which the uncertainties in the expected ground motion and resulting displacement are either ignored or not treated in a rigorous manner. Thus, there is no concept of the actual hazard associated with the computed displacement. This paper presents a fully probabilistic framework for assessing sliding block displacements. The product of this analysis is a displacement hazard curve, which provides the annual rate of exceedance, λ, for a range of displacement levels. The framework considers two procedures that will yield a displacement hazard curve: (1) a scalar hazard approach that utilizes a single ground motion parameter and its associated hazard curve to compute permanent displacements; and (2) a vector hazard approach that predicts displacements based on two (or more) ground motion parameters and the correlation between these parameters. The vector approach reduces the displacement hazard significantly, as compared with the scalar approach, because of the reduction in the variability in the displacement prediction. Comparison of the fully probabilistic approach with an approach using probabilistically derived ground motions reveals that using a ground motion for a given hazard level does not produce a displacement level with the same hazard.     

Assessing Probability-based Methods for Liquefaction Potential Evaluation

This paper presents an assessment of existing and new probabilistic methods for liquefaction potential evaluation. Emphasis is placed on comparison of probabilities of liquefaction calculated with two different approaches, logistic regression and Bayesian mapping. Logistic regression is a well-established statistical procedure, whereas Bayesian mapping is a relatively new application of the Bayes’ theorem to the evaluation of soil liquefaction. In the present study, simplified procedures for soil liquefaction evaluation, including the Seed–Idriss, Robertson–Wride, and Andrus–Stokoe methods, based on the standard penetration test, cone penetration test, and shear wave velocity measurement, respectively, are used as the basis for developing Bayesian mapping functions. The present study shows that the Bayesian mapping approach is preferred over the logistic regression approach for estimating the site-specific probability of liquefaction, although both methods yield comparable probabilities. The paper also compares the three simplified methods in the context of probability of liquefaction, and argues for the use of probability-based procedures for evaluating liquefaction potential.     

Seismic Performance of a River Dike Improved by Sand Compaction Piles

Sand compaction piling is one of the commonly used countermeasures for earthquake liquefaction hazard of river dikes. This paper presents a case study of the performance of an instrumented dike in northeast Japan that was improved by sand compaction piles and subjected to the 2003 Northern Miyagi Earthquake, with the aim to better understand the effectiveness of this ground improvement method. Simulation has been carried out by means of a fully coupled numerical procedure which employs a sophisticated cyclic elastoplastic constitutive model and the updated Lagrangian algorithm. Comparisons between the field measurements and the computed responses, including the time histories of accelerations and pore-water pressures at different locations, show reasonably good agreement. Numerical simulation has also been made of the same dike but without ground improvement to identify the effects of sand compaction piles in altering the performance of the dike. The study demonstrates that the comprehensive numerical procedure is a promising tool for development of seismic performance-based design of earth structures.     

Simplified Procedure for Developing Joint Distribution of amax and Mw for Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis

This paper presents an innovative approach for a probabilistic analysis of liquefaction hazard at a given site in a specified exposure time based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps data. The foundation of this new approach is a simplified procedure for obtaining a joint distribution of peak ground surface acceleration (amax) and moment magnitude of earthquake (Mw) at any given locality in the United States based on the USGS website data. The developed joint probability distribution of amax and Mw can be readily combined with the conditional probability of liquefaction (given a pair of amax and Mw) to obtain the total probability of liquefaction at a given site in a specified exposure time. Detailed formulation of the new approach is presented and demonstrated with examples.     

Retesting of Liquefaction and Nonliquefaction Case Histories from the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone was mobilized to retest 18 selected sites that are particularly important because of the intense ground shaking they sustained despite their high fines content and/or because the site did not liquefy. Of the sites reinvestigated and carefully reprocessed, 13 were considered accurate representative case histories. Two of the sites that were originally investigated for liquefaction have been reinvestigated for cyclic failure of fine-grained soil and removed from consideration for liquefaction triggering. The most important outcome of these field investigations was the collection of more accurate data for three nonliquefaction sites that experienced intense ground shaking. Data for these three case histories is now included in an area of the liquefaction triggering database that was poorly populated and will help constrain the upper bound of future liquefaction triggering curves.     

Centrifuge Testing to Evaluate and Mitigate Liquefaction-Induced Building Settlement Mechanisms

The effective application of liquefaction mitigation techniques requires an improved understanding of the development and consequences of liquefaction. Centrifuge experiments were performed to study the dominant mechanisms of seismically induced settlement of buildings with rigid mat foundations on thin deposits of liquefiable sand. The relative importance of key settlement mechanisms was evaluated by using mitigation techniques to minimize some of their respective contributions. The relative importance of settlement mechanisms was shown to depend on the characteristics of the earthquake motion, liquefiable soil, and building. The initiation, rate, and amount of liquefaction-induced building settlement depended greatly on the rate of ground shaking. Engineering design procedures should incorporate this important feature of earthquake shaking, which may be represented by the time rate of Arias intensity (i.e., the shaking intensity rate). In these experiments, installation of an independent, in-ground, perimetrical, stiff structural wall minimized deviatoric soil deformations under the building and reduced total building settlements by approximately 50%. Use of a flexible impermeable barrier that inhibited horizontal water flow without preventing shear deformation also reduced permanent building settlements but less significantly.     

Estimating Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Displacements Using the Standard Penetration Test or Cone Penetration Test

A semiempirical approach to estimate liquefaction-induced lateral displacements using standard penetration test (SPT) or cone penetration test (CPT) data is presented. The approach combines available SPT- and CPT-based methods to evaluate liquefaction potential with laboratory test results for clean sands to estimate the potential maximum cyclic shear strains for saturated sandy soils under seismic loading. A lateral displacement index is then introduced, which is obtained by integrating the maximum cyclic shear strains with depth. Empirical correlations from case history data are proposed between actual lateral displacement, the lateral displacement index, and geometric parameters characterizing ground geometry for gently sloping ground without a free face, level ground with a free face, and gently sloping ground with a free face. The proposed approach can be applied to obtain preliminary estimates of the magnitude of lateral displacements associated with a liquefaction-induced lateral spread.     

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.     

Liquefaction Hazard Mapping—Statistical and Spatial Characterization of Susceptible Units

In this paper, we present a three step method for characterizing geologic deposits for liquefaction potential using sample based liquefaction probability values. The steps include statistically characterizing the sample population, evaluating the spatial correlation of the population, and finally providing a local and/or global estimate of the distribution of high liquefaction probability values for the deposit. When spatial correlation is present, ordinary kriging can be used to evaluate spatial clustering of high liquefaction probability values within a geologic unit which in turn can be used in a regional liquefaction potential characterization. If spatial correlation is not present in the data, then a global estimate can be used to estimate the percentage of samples within the deposit which have a high liquefaction probability. By describing the liquefaction potential with a binomial distribution (high versus low), a global estimate can provide an estimate of the mean as well as uncertainty in the estimate. To demonstrate the method, we used a dense data set of subsurface borings to identify and characterize liquefiable deposits for hazard mapping in Cambridge, Mass.     

CPT-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of In Situ Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of “thin” liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., “fines” adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performance-based engineering applications, Bayesian “regression” methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations.     

Simplified Method for Spatial Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential in the St. Louis Area

As a part of an earthquake hazard mapping program being undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in the St. Louis metropolitan area, surficial geologic mapping and subsurface geotechnical data have been compiled into a three-dimensional geographic information system (GIS). The potential for soil liquefaction was then spatially evaluated by using subsurface information from 562 boreholes for an assumed M7.5 earthquake emanating from the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Geotechnical data (standard penetration test N-values, overburden pressure, and depth-to-groundwater) and the scenario peak ground accelerations (PGA = 0.1, 0.20, and 0.30??g) were applied to evaluate the factor of safety (FS) against earthquake-induced liquefaction. The liquefaction potential index (LPI) method was used in these evaluations because it allows for calculations of FS with depth for 10–25 discrete stratigraphic horizons overlying the bedrock across the St. Louis metropolitan area. LPI values were derived from the correlation between calculated LPI values and the depths-to-groundwater within late Quaternary stratigraphic units. The St. Louis metropolitan area was then classed according to four levels of severity of risk from liquefaction: (1)?no liquefaction potential, (2)?little-to-no likelihood, (3)?moderate, and (4)?severe.     

Analyzing Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads Using Strength Ratios

The writers backanalyzed 39 well-documented liquefaction-induced lateral spreads in terms of a mobilized strength ratio, su(mob)/σvo′ using the Newmark sliding block method. Based on the inverse analyses results, we found that the backcalculated strength ratios mobilized during lateral spreads can be directly correlated to normalized cone penetration test tip resistance and standard penetration test blow count. Remarkably, Newmark analysis-based strength ratios mobilized during these lateral spreads essentially coincide with liquefied strength ratios backcalculated from liquefaction flow failures. The mobilized strength ratios appear to be independent of the magnitude of lateral displacement (at least for displacements greater than 15?cm) and the strength of shaking (in terms of peak ground acceleration). Furthermore, the mobilized strength ratios backcalculated from these cases appear to be consistent for a given depositional environment and do not appear to be severely impacted by potential water layer formation.     

Evaluation of Cyclic Softening in Silts and Clays

Procedures are presented for evaluating the potential for cyclic softening (i.e., onset of significant strains or strength loss) in saturated silts and clays during earthquakes. The recommended procedures are applicable for fine-grained soils with sufficient plasticity that they would be characterized as behaving more fundamentally like clays in undrained monotonic or cyclic loading. The procedures are presented in a form that is similar to that used in semiempirical liquefaction procedures. Expressions are developed for a static shear stress correction factor and a magnitude scaling factor. Guidelines and empirical relations are presented for determining cyclic resistance ratios based on different approaches to characterizing fine-grained soil deposits. The potential consequences of cyclic softening, and the major variables affecting such consequences, are discussed. Application of these procedures is demonstrated through the analysis of the Carrefour Shopping Center case history from the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake. The proposed procedures, in conjunction with associated liquefaction susceptibility criteria, provide an improved means for distinguishing between the conditions that do and those that do not lead to ground deformations in fine-grained soil deposits during earthquakes.     

Cyclic Softening of Low-Plasticity Clay and Its Effect on Seismic Foundation Performance

During the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake (Mw = 7.6), significant incidents of ground failure occurred in Wufeng, Taiwan, which experienced peak accelerations ～ 0.7?g. This paper describes the results of field investigations and analyses of a small region within Wufeng along an E–W trending line 350?m long. The east end of the line has single-story structures for which there was no evidence of ground failure. The west end of the line had three to six-story reinforced concrete structures that underwent differential settlement and foundation bearing failures. No ground failure was observed in the free field. Surficial soils consist of low-plasticity silty clays that extend to 8–12?m depth in the damaged area (west side), and 3–10?m depth in the undamaged area (east side). A significant fraction of the foundation soils at the site are liquefaction susceptible based on several recently proposed criteria, but the site performance cannot be explained by analysis in existing liquefaction frameworks. Accordingly, an alternative approach is used that accounts for the clayey nature of the foundation soils. Field and laboratory tests are used to evaluate the monotonic and cyclic shear resistance of the soil, which is compared to the cyclic demand placed on the soil by ground response and soil–structure interaction. Results of the analysis indicate a potential for cyclic softening and associated strength loss in foundation soils below the six-story buildings, which contributes to bearing capacity failures at the edges of the foundation. Similar analyses indicate high factors of safety in foundation soils below one-story buildings as well in the free field, which is consistent with the observed field performance.     

Subsurface Characterization at Ground Failure Sites in Adapazari, Turkey

Ground failure in Adapazari, Turkey during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake was severe. Hundreds of structures settled, slid, tilted, and collapsed due in part to liquefaction and ground softening. Ground failure was more severe adjacent to and under buildings. The soils that led to severe building damage were generally low plasticity silts. In this paper, the results of a comprehensive investigation of the soils of Adapazari, which included cone penetration test (CPT) profiles followed by borings with standard penetration tests (SPTs) and soil index tests, are presented. The effects of subsurface conditions on the occurrence of ground failure and its resulting effect on building performance are explored through representative case histories. CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction triggering procedures adequately identified soils that liquefied if the clay-size criterion of the Chinese criteria was disregarded. The CPT was able to identify thin seams of loose liquefiable silt, and the SPT (with retrieved samples) allowed for reliable evaluation of the liquefaction susceptibility of fine-grained soils. A well-documented database of in situ and index testing is now available for incorporating in future CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction triggering correlations.     

Simplified Cone Penetration Test-based Method for Evaluating Liquefaction Resistance of Soils

This paper presents a new simplified method for assessing the liquefaction resistance of soils based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A relatively large database consisting of CPT measurements and field liquefaction performance observations of historical earthquakes is analyzed. This database is first used to train an artificial neural network for predicting the occurrence and nonoccurrence of liquefaction based on soil and seismic load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to generate a set of artificial data points that collectively define the liquefaction boundary surface, the limit state function. An empirical equation is further obtained by regression analysis to approximate the unknown limit state function. The empirical equation developed represents a deterministic method for assessing liquefaction resistance using the CPT. Based on this newly developed deterministic method, probabilistic analyses of the cases in the database are conducted using the Bayesian mapping function approach. The results of the probabilistic analyses, expressed as a mapping function, provide a simple means for probability-based evaluation of the liquefaction potential. The newly developed simplified method compares favorably to a widely used existing method.     

Probabilistic Framework for Liquefaction Potential by Shear Wave Velocity

This paper presents a new empirical equation for assessing liquefaction resistance of soils based on shear wave velocity Vs and the results of probabilistic analyses based on this empirical equation. A database consisting of in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction∕nonliquefaction in historic earthquakes is analyzed. This database is first used to train and test an artificial neural network to predict the occurrence of liquefaction∕nonliquefaction based on soil and seismic load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish the empirical equation. The concept of clean soil equivalence is introduced and used in the development of the empirical equation. The established empirical equation represents a deterministic method for assessing liquefaction resistance of a soil. Based on this newly developed deterministic method, probabilistic analyses of the cases in the database are conducted using the logistic regression approach and the mapping function approach. The results provide a basis for risk-based evaluation of liquefaction evaluation.     

Centrifugal Modeling of Seismic Behavior of Large-Diameter Pipe in Liquefiable Soil

This study focused on the behavior of a large-diameter burial pipe with special reference to its stability against flotation subject to soil liquefaction. Centrifugal modeling technique was used where the results are presented for a total of eight shaking table tests conducted on the burial pipe in a laminar box under 30g gravitational field. The ground was prepared with Nevada sand at a relative density of 38% and shaken with a sinusoidal wave at an amplitude of 0.5g. The use of a viscous fluid in a saturated soil deposit satisfied the time scaling relationships of both dynamic and dissipation phenomena. The centrifugal modeling technique simulated flotation of pipeline as the soil liquefied. A technique that used gravels and geosynthetic material was used to mitigate flotation. The response of the soil deposit, in terms of acceleration and excess pore pressure, was investigated. The uplifting of the pipe, earth pressure response and ground surface deformation were also presented. Based on the test results, a design procedure was proposed for the burial pipe in resisting flotation due to soil liquefaction. The deadweight and stiffness of the gravel unit, which was confined by geosynthetic, were important items in design.