CPT-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of In Situ Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of “thin” liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., “fines” adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performance-based engineering applications, Bayesian “regression” methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations.     

Normalizing the CPT for Overburden Stress

Effective overburden stress can have a significant influence on cone penetration test (CPT) measurements. This influence can lead to an incorrect assessment of soil strength/resistance for such purposes as liquefaction triggering analysis. For an accurate measurement of tip and sleeve resistance, unbiased by overburden stress, it is essential to normalize these index measurements appropriately. Presented herein is a comprehensive study reviewing all aspects of CPT normalization. A result of this study is a variable normalization procedure for the CPT that is based on both empirical results and theoretical analysis. This paper presents these results in the form of an improved normalization scheme and discusses its application in practice.     

SPT and CPT Testing for Evaluating Lateral Loading of Deep Foundations

Current design software (FloridaPier, Com624P) requires p-y curves to estimate the foundation lateral load resistance. Input parameters used to develop these curves can be obtained from in situ [standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT)] correlations. This paper presents an evaluation of predictions using input soil parameters from SPT and CPT correlations versus field measured values. A lateral load test database consisting of 24 SPT and 6 CPT data sets was developed. The comparisons showed that four different SPT correlations for ? coupled with three different k-values all produce similar R-values. (R-value = measured∕predicted × 100%). Therefore, little difference exists between the SPT correlation combinations, albeit the estimated k value has a greater effect on predicted deformation. Similar combinations of CPT correlations also show little effect among the commonly used correlations. SPT predictions are quite conservative at low load levels (R-values ≈ 53%) and remain conservative (R-values ≈ 87%) at high load levels. Also, the scatter (standard deviation) is high (≈40%). CPT evaluations gave unconservative predictions (R-values ≈ 105 to 154%). In addition, the scatter (standard deviation) is high (≈34 to 74%).     

Standard Penetration Test-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential

This paper presents new correlations for assessment of the likelihood of initiation (or “triggering”) of soil liquefaction. These new correlations eliminate several sources of bias intrinsic to previous, similar correlations, and provide greatly reduced overall uncertainty and variance. Key elements in the development of these new correlations are (1) accumulation of a significantly expanded database of field performance case histories; (2) use of improved knowledge and understanding of factors affecting interpretation of standard penetration test data; (3) incorporation of improved understanding of factors affecting site-specific earthquake ground motions (including directivity effects, site-specific response, etc.); (4) use of improved methods for assessment of in situ cyclic shear stress ratio; (5) screening of field data case histories on a quality/uncertainty basis; and (6) use of high-order probabilistic tools (Bayesian updating). The resulting relationships not only provide greatly reduced uncertainty, they also help to resolve a number of corollary issues that have long been difficult and controversial including: (1) magnitude-correlated duration weighting factors, (2) adjustments for fines content, and (3) corrections for overburden stress.     

Simplified Cone Penetration Test-based Method for Evaluating Liquefaction Resistance of Soils

This paper presents a new simplified method for assessing the liquefaction resistance of soils based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A relatively large database consisting of CPT measurements and field liquefaction performance observations of historical earthquakes is analyzed. This database is first used to train an artificial neural network for predicting the occurrence and nonoccurrence of liquefaction based on soil and seismic load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to generate a set of artificial data points that collectively define the liquefaction boundary surface, the limit state function. An empirical equation is further obtained by regression analysis to approximate the unknown limit state function. The empirical equation developed represents a deterministic method for assessing liquefaction resistance using the CPT. Based on this newly developed deterministic method, probabilistic analyses of the cases in the database are conducted using the Bayesian mapping function approach. The results of the probabilistic analyses, expressed as a mapping function, provide a simple means for probability-based evaluation of the liquefaction potential. The newly developed simplified method compares favorably to a widely used existing method.     

Mapping Liquefaction Potential Considering Spatial Correlations of CPT Measurements

The past studies of liquefaction phenomena during earthquakes have contributed to the development of simplified methods employing field test data to assess the liquefaction potential. Since the field data are limited by exploration cost, it is of interest to obtain valuable and meaningful distribution of liquefaction potential of an area from the limited data. This study proposes a method for assessing liquefaction potential over an extensive area according to the random field concept. The spatial structures of soil properties are estimated from the available cone penetration test (CPT) measurements. The soil properties at unsampled locations are simulated using Monte Carlo simulation. The reliability against liquefaction at every location within the study area is evaluated to map the liquefaction potential. The comparison between simulated distributions of liquefaction potential and observed liquefaction phenomena is discussed. The spatial correlation of soil property provides more information than the traditional approach that solely uses the field test data. The influences of CPT data, penetration locations, and spatial structures of soil properties on the mapping results of liquefaction potential are also discussed.     

Accounting for Soil Aging When Assessing Liquefaction Potential

It has been recognized that liquefaction resistance of sand increases with age due to processes such as cementation at particle contacts and increasing frictional resistance resulting from particle rearrangement and interlocking. As such, the currently available empirical correlations derived from liquefaction of young Holocene sand deposits, and used to determine liquefaction resistance of sand deposits from in situ soil indices [standard penetration test (SPT), cone penetration test (CPT), shear wave velocity test (Vs)], are not applicable for old sand deposits. To overcome this limitation, a methodology was developed to account for the effect of aging on the liquefaction resistance of old sand deposits. The methodology is based upon the currently existing empirical boundary curves for Holocene age soils and utilizes correction factors presented in the literature that comprise the effect of aging on the in situ soil indices as well as on the field cyclic strength (CRR). This paper describes how to combine currently recorded SPT, CPT, and Vs values with corresponding CRR values derived for aged soil deposits to generate new empirical boundary curves for aged soils. The method is illustrated using existing geotechnical data from four sites in the South Carolina Coastal Plain (SCCP) where sand boils associated with prehistoric earthquakes have been found. These sites involve sand deposits that are 200,000?to?450,000?years in age. This work shows that accounting for aging of soils in the SCCP yields less conservative results regarding the current liquefaction potential than when age is not considered. The modified boundary curves indicate that old sand deposits are more resistant to liquefaction than indicated by the existing empirical curves and can be used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at a specific site directly from the current in situ properties of the soil.     

CPT-Based Probabilistic Soil Characterization and Classification

Due to lack of soil sampling during conventional cone penetration testing, it is necessary to characterize and classify soils based on tip and sleeve friction values as well as pore pressure induced during and after penetration. Currently available semiempirical methods exhibit a significant variability in the estimation of soil type. Within the confines of this paper it is attempted to present a new probabilistic cone penetration test (CPT)-based soil characterization and classification methodology, which addresses the uncertainties intrinsic to the problem. For this purpose, a database composed of normalized corrected cone tip resistance (qt,1,net), normalized friction ratio (FR), fines content (FC), liquid limit (LL), plasticity index (PI), and soil type based on the unified soil classification system was complied. Soil classification was performed by laboratory testing of the standard penetration test disturbed samples retrieved from the boreholes within mostly 2?m of each CPT hole. The resulting database was probabilistically assessed through Bayesian updating methodology allowing full and consistent representation of relevant uncertainties, including (1) model imperfection; (2) statistical uncertainty; and (3) inherent variability. As a conclusion, different sets of FC, LL, PI, and A-line boundary curves along with a new CPT-based, simplified soil classification scheme are proposed in the qt,1,net and FR domain. Probabilistic uses of the proposed models are illustrated through a set of illustrative examples.     

Prediction of Soil Composition from CPT Data Using General Regression Neural Network

Soil type is typically inferred from the information collected during a cone penetration test (CPT) using one of the many available soil classification methods. In this study, a general regression neural network (GRNN) was developed for predicting soil composition from CPT data. Measured values of cone resistance and sleeve friction obtained from CPT soundings, together with grain-size distribution results of soil samples retrieved from adjacent standard penetration test boreholes, were used to train and test the network. The trained GRNN model was tested by presenting it with new, previously unseen CPT data, and the model predictions were compared with the reference particle-size distribution and the results of two existing CPT soil classification methods. The profiles of soil composition estimated by the GRNN generally compare very well with the actual grain-size distribution profiles, and overall the neural network had an 86% success rate at classifying soils as coarse grained or fine grained.     

Case History Evaluation of Laterally Loaded Piles

This paper examines seven case histories of load tests on piles or drilled shafts under lateral load. Since the current design software to estimate lateral load resistance of deep foundations requires p-y curves. The first approach used was correlative whereby soil parameters determined from in situ tests [standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT)] were used as input values for standard p-y curves. In the second approach p-y curves were calculated directly from the stress deformation data measured in dilatometer (DMT) and cone pressuremeter tests. The correlative evaluation revealed that, on the average, predictions based upon the SPT were conservative for all loading levels, and using parameters from the CPT best predicted field behavior. Typically, predictions were conservative, except at the maximum load. Since traditionally SPT and CPT correlation-based p-y curves are for “sands” or “clays,” this study suggests that silts, silty sands, and clayey sands should use cohesive p-y curves. For the directly calculated curves, DMT derived p-y curves predict well at low lateral loads, but at higher load levels the predictions become unconservative. p-y curves derived from pressuremeter tests predicted well for both “sands” and “clays” where pore pressures are not anticipated.     

Estimation of Footing Settlement in Sand

The settlement of foundations under working load conditions is an important design consideration. Well‐designed foundations induce stress‐strain states in the soil that are neither in the linear elastic range nor in the range usually associated with perfect plasticity. Thus, in order to accurately predict working settlements, analyses that are more realistic than simple elastic analyses are required. The settlements of footings in sand are often estimated based on the results of in situ tests, particularly the standard penetration test (SPT) and the cone penetration test (CPT). In this article, we analyze the load‐settlement response of vertically loaded footings placed in sands using both the finite element method with a nonlinear stress‐strain model and the conventional elastic approach. Calculations are made for both normally consolidated and heavily overconsolidated sands with various relative densities. For each case, the cone penetration resistance qc is calculated using CONPOINT, a widely tested program that allows computation of qc based on cavity expansion analysis. Based on these analyses, we propose a procedure for the estimation of footing settlement in sands based on CPT results.     

Database Assessment of CPT-Based Design Methods for Axial Capacity of Driven Piles in Siliceous Sands

Numerous cone penetration test (CPT)-based methods exist for calculation of the axial pile capacity in sands, but no clear guidance is presently available to assist designers in the selection of the most appropriate method. To assist in this regard, this paper examines the predictive performance of a range of pile design methods against a newly compiled database of static load tests on driven piles in siliceous sands with adjacent CPT profiles. Seven driven pile design methods are considered, including the conventional American Petroleum Institute (API) approach, simplified CPT alpha methods, and four new CPT-based methods, which are now presented in the commentary of the 22nd edition of the API recommendations. Mean and standard deviation database statistics for the design methods are presented for the entire 77 pile database, as well as for smaller subset databases separated by pile material (steel and concrete), end condition (open versus closed), and direction of loading (tension versus compression). Certain methods are seen to exhibit bias toward length, relative density, cone tip resistance, and pile end condition. Other methods do not exhibit any apparent bias (even though their formulations differ significantly) due to the limited size of the database subsets and the large number of factors known to influence pile capacity in sand. The database statistics for the best performing methods are substantially better than those for the API approach and the simplified alpha methods. Improved predictive reliability will emerge with an extension of the database and the inclusion of additional important controlling factors affecting capacity.     

Subsurface Characterization at Ground Failure Sites in Adapazari, Turkey

Ground failure in Adapazari, Turkey during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake was severe. Hundreds of structures settled, slid, tilted, and collapsed due in part to liquefaction and ground softening. Ground failure was more severe adjacent to and under buildings. The soils that led to severe building damage were generally low plasticity silts. In this paper, the results of a comprehensive investigation of the soils of Adapazari, which included cone penetration test (CPT) profiles followed by borings with standard penetration tests (SPTs) and soil index tests, are presented. The effects of subsurface conditions on the occurrence of ground failure and its resulting effect on building performance are explored through representative case histories. CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction triggering procedures adequately identified soils that liquefied if the clay-size criterion of the Chinese criteria was disregarded. The CPT was able to identify thin seams of loose liquefiable silt, and the SPT (with retrieved samples) allowed for reliable evaluation of the liquefaction susceptibility of fine-grained soils. A well-documented database of in situ and index testing is now available for incorporating in future CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction triggering correlations.     

Probabilistic Models for Cyclic Straining of Saturated Clean Sands

A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and “index” test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a series of stress-controlled cyclic triaxial and simple shear tests were performed on laboratory-constituted saturated clean sand specimens. The variabilities in testing conditions (i.e., type of test, consolidation procedure, confining pressure, rate of loading, etc.) were corrected through a series of correction schemes, the effectiveness of which were later confirmed by the discriminant analyses results. Volumetric and shear strain boundary curves were developed in the cyclic stress ratio versus N1,60,CS or qc,1 domain. In addition to being based on significantly extended and higher quality databases, contrary to the existing judgmentally derived deterministic ones, proposed correlations have formal probabilistic bases, and so provide insight regarding uncertainty of strain predictions or probability of exceeding a target strain value. Probabilistic uses of the proposed correlations were illustrated by three sets of examples. A companion paper applied and calibrated the proposed volumetric strain correlation to semiempirically evaluate postearthquake settlement of level, free-field sites. For the calibration, case history soil profiles, composed of a broad range of sand types and depositional characteristics, shaken by a number of earthquakes, were used. Superior predictions of field settlements by this laboratory data-based cyclic strain assessment approach were concluded to be strongly mutually supportive.     

Hydraulic Conductivity Measurement from On-the-Fly uCPT Sounding and from VisCPT

Detailed profiles of hydraulic conductivity are recovered from the deployment of direct-push permeameters at the Geohydrologic Experimental and Monitoring Site, Kansas. Measurements with thin tapered tips, and with standard cone penetration test (uCPT) tips, show only minor differences, suggesting that tip-local disturbance effects are small, and that routine uCPT measurements are therefore representative of pristine conditions. Permeameter measurements are correlated against closely deployed uCPT measurements, estimates of hydraulic conductivity from uCPT sounding correlations, and from grain size correlations derived from both vision CPT (VisCPT) and from cone metrics. On-the-fly evaluations of hydraulic conductivity require that the tip-local pressure field is both steady and partially drained. Continuous penetration is shown to yield pore pressures sufficiently close to steady to enable conductivities to be directly determined. Cone metrics of cone resistance, sleeve friction, and pore pressure ratio are shown to be sufficient to discriminate between partially drained and undrained behavior, and therefore to define the permissible regime where conductivities may be determined from uCPT sounding data. Estimates of hydraulic conductivities from uCPT sounding data are shown to correlate with independently measured magnitudes of hydraulic conductivity recovered using the permeameter tests. However, most of hydraulic conductivities from the permeameter tests (4.5?cm length screen) are underpredicted, suggesting that storage effects, the inability to reach a steady state, or the effects of dilation may influence the response. Profiles of hydraulic conductivities evaluated from the on-the-fly method also correlate well with the permeameter measurements. Predictions from soil classification and from VisCPT methods are also capable of estimating conductivities, with soil classifications giving the closest correlations of these two for this particular suite of data.     

Retesting of Liquefaction and Nonliquefaction Case Histories from the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone was mobilized to retest 18 selected sites that are particularly important because of the intense ground shaking they sustained despite their high fines content and/or because the site did not liquefy. Of the sites reinvestigated and carefully reprocessed, 13 were considered accurate representative case histories. Two of the sites that were originally investigated for liquefaction have been reinvestigated for cyclic failure of fine-grained soil and removed from consideration for liquefaction triggering. The most important outcome of these field investigations was the collection of more accurate data for three nonliquefaction sites that experienced intense ground shaking. Data for these three case histories is now included in an area of the liquefaction triggering database that was poorly populated and will help constrain the upper bound of future liquefaction triggering curves.     

Pile Behavior due to Excavation-Induced Soil Movement in Clay. I: Stable Wall

A series of centrifuge model tests has been conducted to investigate the behavior of a single pile subjected to excavation-induced soil movements behind a stable retaining wall in clay. The results reveal that after the completion of soil excavation, the wall and the soil continue to move and such movement induces further bending moment and deflection on an adjacent pile. For a pile located within 3?m behind the wall where the soil experiences large shear strain (>2%) due to stress relief as a result of the excavation, the induced pile bending moment and deflection reach their maximum values sometime after soil excavation and thereafter decrease slightly with time. For a pile located 3?m beyond the wall, the induced pile bending moment and deflection continue to increase slightly with time after excavation until the end of the test. A numerical model developed at the National University of Singapore is used to back-analyze the centrifuge test data. The method gives a reasonably good prediction of the induced bending moment and deflection on a pile located at 3?m or beyond the wall. For a pile located at 1?m behind the wall where the soil experiences large shear strain (>2%) due to stress relief resulting from the excavation, the calculated pile response is in good agreement with the measured data if the correct soil shear strength obtained from postexcavation is used in the analysis. However, if the original soil shear strength prior to excavation is used in the analysis, this leads to an overestimation of the maximum bending moment of about 25%. The practical implications of the findings are also discussed in this paper.     

Load Testing and Settlement Prediction of Shallow Foundation

The purpose of this study was to critically examine insitu test methods as a means for predicting settlement of shallow foundations. Accordingly, a 1.8?m (6?ft) diameter concrete footing was statically load tested. Prior to construction, insitu [standard penetration test (SPT), cone penetration test (CPT), dilatometer (DMT), and pressuremeter (PMT)] and laboratory tests were performed to determine engineering properties of the soil. Predictions of the footing settlement were made by traditional as well as finite element methods. The results of the static load test showed settlements were over predicted by all methods. However, the traditional methods provided reasonable settlement estimates using either SPT-N or back computed CPT(N) as input. Finite element analyses using either DMT or CPT derived input parameters provided reasonable settlement estimates. Finite element analyses using SPT or PMT derived input parameters provided poor settlement estimates. The Mohr–Coulomb (elastoplastic) model, accounting for overconsolidation, provided better estimates than the hardening soil (hyperbolic-cap) model for all insitu test derived parameters.     

Logistic Regression Model for Evaluating Soil Liquefaction Probability Using CPT Data

A simple model for evaluating liquefaction probability using cone penetration test (CPT) data is developed based on logistic regression analyses of 396 case histories. The proposed model uses the normalized cone penetration resistance and soil behavior type index as input parameters; therefore, only CPT testing is necessary for evaluating the liquefaction probability of a site. The selection of the model parameters and the expression of equations are based on results of probability examinations and rigorous statistical analyses. Moreover, the derivation of the logistic regression model is presented in a system of equations. The incorporation of these procedures in developing the model not only fully satisfies the statistic requirements but also highlights the physical meanings of the model parameters. Comparisons of the proposed probability model with previously proposed deterministic and probabilistic approaches are performed to demonstrate the improvements. For practical purposes, the developed model is implemented to establish the relationship between the factor of safety against liquefaction and the probability of liquefaction.     

2D and 3D Numerical Modeling of Combined Surcharge and Vacuum Preloading with Vertical Drains

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical analysis of a case study of a combined vacuum and surcharge preloading project for a storage yard at Tianjin Port, China. At this site, a vacuum pressure of 80?kPa and a fill surcharge of 50?kPa were applied on top of the 20-m-thick soft soil layer through prefabricated vertical drains (PVD) to achieve the desired settlements and to avoid embankment instability. In 3D analysis, the actual shape of PVDs and their installation pattern with the in situ soil parameters were simulated. In contrast, the validity of 2D plane strain analysis using equivalent permeability and transformed unit cell geometry was examined. In both cases, the vacuum pressure along the drain length was assumed to be constant as substantiated by the field observations. The finite-element code, ABAQUS, using the modified Cam-clay model was used in the numerical analysis. The predictions of settlement, pore-water pressure, and lateral displacement were compared with the available field data, and an acceptable agreement was achieved for both 2D and 3D numerical analyses. It is found that both 3D and equivalent 2D analyses give similar consolidation responses at the vertical cross section where the lateral strain along the longitudinal axis is zero. The influence of vacuum may extend more than 10?m from the embankment toe, where the lateral movement should be monitored carefully during the consolidation period to avoid any damage to adjacent structures.