基于TVARMA的飞行器结构响应序列参数谱估计

针对时变自回归滑动平均(TVARMA)模型参数谱估计容易出现谱峰漂移的问题,提出一种基于组合目标函数和遗传算法的TVARMA模型参数估计方法,并将之应用于飞行器结构响应序列的谱估计。首先,通过长自回归方法和增广最小二乘方法获得TVARMA模型参数初始估计值;其次,依据连续函数极值条件推导模型参数的频域约束条件并结合罚函数方法构造组合目标函数;最后,采用遗传算法对模型参数进行优化获得使组合目标函数最小的参数值作为TVARMA模型参数的最优估计。应用结果表明:该方法可以克服谱峰漂移现象,提高模型在时域和时频域的建模精度。     

基于ARMA模型的煤矿瓦斯灾害预测研究

瓦斯预测有助于减少煤矿瓦斯灾害损失,甚至可以完全避免严重事故或灾害的发生.使用时间序列分析法,建立瓦斯灾害预测的自回归滑动平均ARMA模型,用AIC信息量准则实现模型定阶,用最小二乘法确定模型中的未知参数.对于非平稳时间序列,经差分处理后得到平稳时间序列,再用ARMA模型进行预测.仿真结果表明建立的预测模型和数据处理方法能获得较准确的预测结果.     

基于时变神经网络的非线性时变系统建模

提出时变神经网络模型,用以逼近未知非线性时变映射,实现非线性时变系统建模.将时变神经网络的权值学习作为时变系统的时变参数估计问题,并基于迭代学习机制,给出在同一时刻沿迭代轴训练网络权值的迭代学习最小二乘算法.理论上证明了该算法的全局收敛性.给出的数值算例表明所提算法在非线性时变系统建模方面的有效性.     

基于两步分解法和SARIMA的非饱和机场能耗预测

针对非饱和机场能耗时间序列的非线性和非平稳性特点,提出一种基于两步分解法和季节差分自回归滑动平均模型相结合的组合预测法。利用自适应噪声完整集成经验模态分解法和样本熵,将原始能耗时间序列分解为从高频至低频且复杂度不同的分量。再利用变分模态分解法对高频复杂分量再次分解,得到一系列呈现弱非线性且相对平稳的子序列。采用季节差分自回归滑动平均(SARIMA)模型对各子序列进行建模预测,将各子序列预测结果叠加得机场能耗预测值。实验结果表明,该方法可以有效提高非饱和机场能耗的预测精度。     

基于KPLS和LS-SVM的过程参数预测及其应用

针对有色冶炼净化过程流程长、影响因素多以及非线性强等特点,提出了一种结合最小二乘支持向量机和核偏最小二乘回归的过程参数预测方法。考虑到过程参数时间序列具有高噪声和非平稳等特性,首先基于小波多分辨率分析方法将参数时间序列分解成具有不同频率特征的子序列,然后根据分解后各自序列的特点,利用最小二乘支持向量机和核偏最小二乘回归法对各子序列进行建模,最后对各分量预测信号重构合成得到最终的预测结果。将该建模方法应用于锌湿法冶炼净化除钴过程钴离子浓度的预测,并应用工业现场的数据进行了实验验证,结果表明,该预测模型性能优于最小二乘支持向量机模型,具有较好的泛化能力和较强的鲁棒性。     

非线性时间序列建模的混合自回归滑动平均模型

提出了一类用于非线性时间序列建模的混合自回归滑动平均模型(MARMA).该模型是由K个平稳或非平稳的ARMA分量经过混合得到的.讨论了MARMA模型的平稳性条件和自相关函数.给出了MARMA模型参数估计的期望极大化(expectation maximization)算法.运用贝叶斯信息准则(Bayes information criterion)来选择该模型.MARMA模型分布形式富于变化的特征使得它能够对具有多峰分布以及条件异方差的序列进行建模.通过两个实例验证了该模型,并和其他模型进行比较,结果表明MARMA模型能够更好地描述这些数据的特征.     

经验模式分解与时间序列分析在网络流量预测中的应用

提出一种经验模式分解和时间序列分析的网络流量预测方法. 首先,对网络流量时间序列进行经验模式分解,产生高低频分量和余量;然后,对各分量进行时间序列分析,确保高频分量采用改进和声搜索算法优化的最小二乘支持向量机模型、低频分量和余量采用差分自回归滑动平均模型进行建模和预测;最后,将预测结果通过RBF神经网络进行非线性叠加,得到最终的预测值.仿真实验表明,所提出方法具有更好的预测效果和更高的预测精度.     

基于递推最小二乘估计的动力学模型参数识别

动力学建模过程中,模型参数的不确定性和参数的未知变化使得建模精度大为降低。通过对非线性最小二乘估计理论的研究,提出动力学模型参数的最小二乘估计,并设计出相应的估计器,基于现场数据给予模型较为准确的定论。应用于曲柄滑块机构中滑块与滑动面间的摩擦系数的估计,经过较少的迭代次数获得满意的估计效果。为动力学模型参数识别,建立更精确模型提供一个有效的途径。     

具有限定记忆的辅助变量参数辨识法与仿真研究

最小二乘参数辨识法可用于动态系统、静态系统、线性系统、非线性系统的参数估计。可用于离线估计,也可用于在线估计。最小二乘辨识法简单、实用,其递推算法收敛可靠,并且当模型噪声为白噪声时,可得到无偏、一致和有效的估计,从而得到广泛的应用。但当模型噪声是有色噪声时,最小二乘参数估计不是无偏、一致估计,并且随着数据的增长,最小二乘递推辨识算法将出现数据饱和现象,以致递推算法慢慢失去修正的能力。辅助变量递推算法解决了噪声的模型结构不确定且模型噪声是有色噪声时,最小二乘参数估计的元偏性和一致性问题,但依然存在数据饱和问题。为此在辅助变量递推算法的基础上引入限定记忆方式,获得了具有限定记忆的辅助变量参数估计递推算法,解决了辅助变量递推算法的数据饱和问题。仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性。     

基于时变RBF网络的非线性时变系统建模

在常规RBF神经网络中采用时变权值,将其应用于非线性时变系统的建模。采用减聚类算法确定网络隐含层神经元数与基函数中心参数,以迭代学习最小二乘算法修正神经网络时变权值,给出时变RBF网络的学习算法。分析表明,迭代学习最小二乘权值修正算法保证了网络时变权值的有界性,迭代误差收敛于零。仿真结果验证了该方法在非线性时变系统建模方面的有效性。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.