A smart meter data-driven distribution utility rate model for networks with prosumers

Distribution grids across the world are undergoing profound changes due to advances in energy technologies. Electrification of the transportation sector and the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as photo-voltaic panels and energy storage devices, have gained substantial momentum, especially at the grid edge. Transformation in the technological aspects of the grid could directly conflict with existing distribution utility retail tariff structures. We propose a smart meter data-driven rate model to recover distribution network-related charges, where the implementation of these grid-edge technologies is aligned with the interest of the various stakeholders in the electricity ecosystem. The model envisions a shift from charging end-users based on their KWh volumetric consumption, towards charging them a grid access fee that approximates the impact of end-users’ time-varying demand on their local distribution network. The proposed rate incorporates two cost metrics affecting distribution utilities (DUs), namely magnitude and variability of customer demand. The proposed rate can be applied to prosumers and conventional consumers without DERs.     

Creating value from diverse knowledge in megaproject innovation ecosystems

Although considerable emphasis has been placed on innovation in megaprojects research, it remains unclear how to obtain valuable outputs in megaproject innovation ecosystems. In view of the key role of knowledge in innovation activities, this study aims to explore the latent mechanism underlying the relationship between knowledge input and output quality, and how this relationship is impacted by ecosystem peers. We argue that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the size of knowledge base and the likelihood of high-quality output as a result of both the creation-potential effect and the integration-difficulty effect caused by the increase in knowledge base size. An empirical analysis of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project confirms it and shows that the inverted U-shaped curve will be flattened as the relative search breadth of ecosystem peers increases. Our findings deepen the theoretical understanding of innovation activities in megaprojects, and provide new insights into co-creation in megaprojects innovation ecosystems.     

A system dynamic model for the assessment of different exposure routes in aquatic ecosystems

With the exception of a limited number of highly persistent lipophilic pollutants, waterborne exposure is considered the most relevant exposure route for aquatic organisms, and even the only relevant exposure route in lower tier assessment, while the potential for bioaccumulation is only evaluated as secondary poisoning for birds and mammals. In addition, some evaluations consider that only the dissolved fraction is bioavailable for pelagic organisms. The lack of easy and cost-effective assessment methods is probably the main reason to disregard the contribution of other routes. This paper presents a system dynamics model that estimates the time-dependent accumulation of toxic chemicals through the food chain, and has also the potential to include the exposure from sediment. The generic ecosystem includes a primary producer and three levels of consumers, represented by unicellular algae, cladoceran invertebrates, cladoceran-eating fish and fish-eating fish, respectively. Nevertheless, the model, built using Microsoft Excel software, allows any number of levels and ecological-exposure relationships. The results obtained for four illustrative pollutants demonstrate that factors such as the binding to algae and other edible particles or food chain exposure for lipophilic non-persistent chemicals may constitute significant exposure routes. The current low tier European ecological risk assessment guidelines do not cover these aspects, and therefore may under estimate the real risk for both aquatic organisms and their predators. The model includes a simplified worst-case alternative that normally can be calculated using the existing information. Under a tiered approach, the simplified alternative is proposed to trigger the need of the toxicokinetics assays required to perform the complete time-dependent calculation.     

Measuring the value and the role of soft assets in smart city development

The global trend in urban planning is moving towards smart city (SC) development. This involves a combination of smart infrastructure, innovative technologies and the use of ‘soft assets’ to create more effective integration of the changes within each urban community. This paper outlines and analyses a framework to measure soft assets in SC implementation to assist policy discussions in urban development. The different approaches to identifying and measuring intangible or soft assets by leading researchers, practitioners, and public organizations are reviewed and evaluated. Fundamentally, intangible/soft assets are unique, and context-dependent by nature. They are powerful assets creating value and are connected to other assets to yield outcomes and impact according to alignment to SC objectives. Reviewing several approaches to measurement clearly indicates that the way intangible/soft assets are addressed differ according to different frameworks used, including the accounting framework, strength of management control, and using the assets as an integral part of knowledge management. These tools make it possible to identify, measure and understand the roles of soft assets and explain how they are intricately linked at multi-dimensional and multi-tier levels of urban development. Effective use of soft assets greatly strengthens the ability of a city administration or Local Government Unit (LGU) to provide innovative solutions and create value if the assets are optimized and aligned with the SC development goals. The value creation framework is also changed and adapted accordingly. Thus understanding SC effectiveness is increased by properly defining and providing an evaluation framework for soft assets which in turn assists policy makers and LGU administration make SCs more sustainable.     

InnoDiff: A project-based model for successful IT innovation diffusion

In spite of the importance of information technology (IT) for many organizations to help manage the enterprise daily transactions, IT project failure rates still remain high and are of great concern. This obliges continued exploration of new process models and organization structures to nurture strong project performance. This paper presents a new generic model for successful implementation of IT projects referred to as InnoDiff. The model uses Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) as a test bed. Furthermore, the paper also presents a case study that demonstrates the detailed application of InnoDiff during the course of executing the Human Resource Management System (HRMS) within the Wide Access Network (WAN) at the National Guard Health Affairs (NGHA) in Saudi Arabia.     

A time-dependent earned value model for software projects

This paper proposes a formal method for including time dependence into Earned Value (EV) management. The model requires three parameters, which map directly to the fundamental “triple constraint” of scope, cost, and schedule: the reject rate of activities, the cost overrun parameter, and the time to repair the rejected activities. Time dependent expressions for the planned value, earned value, and actual cost are derived, along with the cost performance index (CPI) and schedule performance index (SPI). The model is built on the well-established Putnam–Norden–Rayleigh (PNR) labor rate profile, which is a useful representation for large software projects. We apply the model to a well-known software dataset, demonstrating how to estimate the project's final cost, which converges faster to the correct answer with less variability than standard Estimate-at-Completion (EAC) calculations. The model also accurately predicts the required revised labor profile and the new schedule.     

A quantitative model for evaluating landforms visual value

This paper presents an evaluation methodology of the visual value of various landforms. The term ‘visual value’ refers to the public preference of various forms of the Earth's relief. It is a figure which, even though it depends on various subjective factors, aims to quantify and to predict the preference of the public for each ground morphology. A questionnaire survey was undertaken using a sample of 221 persons in the broader Athens. The means used to demonstrate the various forms of reliefs are 32 perspective digital relief images. Following this, and in order to investigate the elements of the relief that affect its visual value, 20 quantitative indices were developed and examined so as to select the best ones. Linear prediction models of the visual value were investigated from the previous elements, through a regression process. The application of the proposed model in physical environment planning are many, such as the identification of the positions that offer the best or worst view for the spatial arrangement of various activities, the prediction of visual impact by arranging works that alter the relief of a region, etc.     

浅析湖南中小城市规划建设的发展

湖南中小城市在城市规划建设发展中存在城市公共空间、景观无序、基础设施发展不平衡、建筑文脉的消失、建筑创作弱化等问题,从文化学的角度探讨、分析,并在营造城市文化环境、提高城市规划建设的文化含量等方面提出了相应建议和对策。     

水利建筑企业作业队管理模式创新研究

工程项目管理是水利建筑企业效益的源泉,而基层作业队是水利工程项目施工现场的基层施工队伍。因此,对于基层作业队管理模式创新探索是非常必要的。通过对中国水电集团某公司在建项目作业队管理模式的调研,发现了目前水利建筑企业作业队管理模式中存在的问题和困难,提出了有针对性的建议,这对于水利建筑行业的可持续发展有一定的借鉴意义。     

A hierarchical structural model of assessing innovation and project performance

Research in construction innovation highlights construction industry as having many barriers and resistance to innovations and suggests that it needs champions. A hierarchical structural model is presented, to assess the impact of the role of the project manager (PM) on the levels of innovation and project performance. The model adopts the structural equation modelling technique and uses the survey data collected from PMs and project team members working for general contractors in Singapore. The model fits well to the observed data, accounting for 24%, 37% and 49% of the variance in championing behaviour, the level of innovation and project performance, respectively. The results of this study show the importance of the championing role of PMs in construction innovation. However, in order to increase their effectiveness, such a role should be complemented by their competency and professionalism, tactical use of influence tactics, and decision authority. Moreover, senior management should provide adequate resources and a sustained support to innovation and create a conducive environment or organizational culture that nurtures and facilitates the PM's role in the construction project as a champion of innovation.     

A model for energy analysis in supermarkets

A simple supermarket energy model that takes into account the following irreversibilities: external load passing through the walls, heat leakage between cold display cases and warm selling area, and electrical heating is developed. The analysis carried out with this model demonstrates that the energy requirement as a function of the external environmental temperature depends on the following non-dimensional parameters: the heat recovery, the building thermal insulation and the internal load.     

A review of data-driven approaches for burst detection in water distribution systems

This study focuses on data-driven approaches for burst detection and classifies them into three categories: classification method, prediction-classification method and statistical method. The performance of these methods is discussed. By analysing uncertainty in burst detection, this paper revealed that non-stationary monitoring data and limitations present in these methods challenge the reliability of detection results. Data pre-processing and probabilistic solutions to deal with the uncertainty are summarised. From these findings and discussions, this paper concludes and recommends that: a) data-driven approaches are promising in real-life burst detection and reducing false alarms is an important issue; b) more comprehensive performance evaluation might be necessary, in particular regarding detectable burst size; c) further research on new methods employing multivariate analysis and a new category based on clustering analysis would be beneficial to tackle uncertainty; d) more focus on the use of pressure data might facilitate burst location and reduce investment in burst detection.     

A spatial model for systems analysis

Conclusion A spatial model has been proposed for the investigation of systems where the available data pertaining to the system and those environmental factors influencing it is so generalized as to rule out traditional statistical analyses. This proposed methodology, which is of an order of generalization similar to the available data, necessarily yields highly generalized results in terms of significant factors at their critical and core area values. For purposes of preliminary investigations, it is felt that the generalized results of this approach to systems analysis will be valuable.     

北京小汤山地区环境高氟的地质成因分析及其对生态系统的危害

昌平小汤山镇北山地区土壤与水系沉积物的元素组成与燕山期岩浆岩、元古宙—中生代沉积岩具有良好的空间对应关系.受地质体、地形与河流的共同影响,平原地区土壤充分反映出成土母岩为北山岩石的地球化学性质.小汤山地区土壤与水体的氟含量明显高于其他地区,高氟环境对生态系统具有危害性,使得当地居民既往历史上长期流行地方性氟中毒疾病.因此,只有通过查明地质背景状况来制定环境降氟措施,才能有效提高人群健康质量.     

A mathematical model for predicting the total insulation value of a bedding system

The total insulation value of a bedding system is a significant factor affecting the neutral temperature in a sleeping thermal environment. This paper reports on a study of developing a mathematical model for predicting the total insulation values of various bedding systems. The factors influencing the total insulation value of a bedding system such as the percentage coverage over a human body, types of bed with mattress and bedding, etc., were included in the model. The predicted total insulation values using the model developed were compared with the experimental results previously obtained in a related study. It was shown that the predicted total insulation values of different bedding systems agreed well with the experimental values. A statistics analysis further suggested that the mathematical model developed was able to predict the total insulation values of different bedding systems with an acceptable accuracy. Finally, using the model developed the impacts of key influencing factors on the total insulation value of a bedding system were assessed.     

新一代土层地震反应分析方法

剖析了当今国际上频域等效线性化和时域非线性求解土层地震反应分析方法的典型代表SHAKE2000与DEEPSOIL,对目前其他学者FDM改进方式的可行性进行评判,采用新的直频法动剪模量阻尼比求解技术,提出新一代一维土层地震反应计算方法和程序SOILQUAKE,并用四种类别和巨厚场地实际记录检验了新程序。结果表明：SHAKE2000与DEEPSOIL在一类、二类场地上基本一致且结果可靠,三类和四类场地上两程序计算反应谱“矮粗胖”现象严重,与实际情况相差甚远;现有考虑频率相关性的FDM改进方式,其基本出发点存在定性错误;对硬场地和中硬场地,SOILQUAKE与SHAKE2000和DEEPSOIL结果大致相似,但在高频部分表现比SHAKE2000更加合理,与DEEPSOIL基本一致;对软场地和巨厚场地,SOILQUAKE克服了SHAKE2000和DEEPSOIL严重低估场地放大效应的缺点,模拟结果与实测记录较为接近,在软场地上优势显著,在巨厚软场地上优势十分显著。SOILQUAKE首先攻克现有软土层地震动计算结果“矮粗胖”和硬土中等效线性化方法缺少高频分量求解难点,具备了作为新一代一维土层地震反应计算方法的能力,将在http://www.soilquake.com或http://www.soilquake.cn上提供共享服务。     

A new device for sampling waters in shallow ecosystems

A set of equipment has been designed to take water samples by aspiration at varying depths in shallow ecosystems. The depths sampled can be freely selected within a range of accuracy of 1 cm. The equipment is portable and can be handled from a boat or from the shore, at points up to 20 m away from the sampling location.A study was made of the accuracy of temperature and dissolved gas content of samples obtained using this device. With respect to the gas analysis, there was no serious loss of gas from the samples as long as they aspirated under a reduced pressure <400 mm Hg. This system enables the collection at a rate of 10.4 l h⁻¹ when the apparatus is placed about 2 or 3 m above the surface of the ecosystem under investigation. The error which occurs in the temperature reading is a function of the differences in temperature between the mass of water sampled and the area surrounding the intake tubes. For differences of around 1°C the error is <0.1°C.Some modifications of the equipment are also suggested in order to simplify the operations necessary to take samples for dissolved gas measurement. Also proposed is a system of on-line filtration useful for quantitative phytoplankton or suspended solid content determinations in the samples.     

A model system for policy impact analysis in the Tuscany region

The Regional Development Group at IIASA and the Regional Institute for Economic Planning of Tuscany (IRPET) are currently engaged in a Case Study of the use of system analytic methods aimed at medium-term forecasting, impact analysis, policy evaluation and planning, related to the Tuscany region in Italy. In this paper, we give an overview of the individual elements of that models system, based on a biregional inputoutput model, and of the interrelations between them. We also propose and provide a common frame of reference for the work on the various sub-models currently being developed or planned. Finally we will dwell on a possible final structure of the system including appropriate computer software.     

Interactions between nutrients and organic micro-pollutants in shallow freshwater model ecosystems

Effects of nutrients and toxicants in aquatic ecosystems may interact in several ways. Here, we (a) present an overview of reported mechanisms that may play a role in these interactions, and (b) compare these reported mechanisms against the results of a suite of experiments performed with organic micro-pollutants in outdoor and indoor microcosms representing shallow lakes dominated either by phytoplankton or by macrophytes. The presence of macrophytes affected the fate of the persistent hydrophobic organic chemicals (triphenyltin, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls) in particular. Differences in community structure affected indirect treatment-related effects and recoverability of affected populations in the lambda-cyhalothrin and TPT experiments high nutrient status. Four major interaction categories reported in the literature are I) dilution of pollutants by biomass, II) impact on transport and cycling of pollutants, III) direct toxicant-food interactions, and IV) indirect toxicant-food interactions. Results of our experiments showed interactions in all four categories (I, II, III, and IV). However, it is concluded that risks of organic micro-pollutants cannot be adapted to (or compensated for?) these four mechanism because of time and space dependent feedback in shallow water communities.     

A dynamic compartmental food chain model of radiocaesium transfer to Apodemus sylvaticus in woodland ecosystems

A study was undertaken to quantify the activity concentrations of 137Cs in Apodemus sylvaticus (the woodmouse) in two woodland sites, Lady Wood and Longrigg Wood, adjacent to British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. (BNFL) Sellafield, Cumbria, UK. A deterministic dynamic compartmental food chain model was also constructed to predict 137Cs activity concentration [Bq kg(-1) dry weight (dw)] in A. sylvaticus on a seasonal basis given the activity concentrations in its diet. Within the coniferous woodland site (Lady Wood), significant differences were found between seasons (P < 0.05, summer vs. autumn cohort; P < 0.001, spring vs. autumn cohort), with an autumn peak in activity concentration (geometric mean = 140 x/divided by 2.3 Bq kg(-1) dw) being attributed to mycophagy. Fungal concentrations ranged from 2-3213 Bq kg(-1) dw. The modelled activity concentrations fell between the confidence intervals of the observed data in four of the six seasonal cohorts sampled. Disparities between predicted and observed activity concentrations are attributed to uncertainties surrounding the fundamental feeding ecology of small mammals.