Dynamic multipliers for a regional input-output model

Regional multiplier is a very useful and popular tool in economic study of a region. However, conventional regional multiplier derived from a static input-output model fails to provide time path of the impact over period. In many cases, it restricts the impact within a year period. To alleviate the problem, this paper introduces a regional dynamic multiplier which makes the impact to spread out over period. In the absence of the technical change, each period multiplier added up to the static multiplier. Utilizing Oklahoma data, the paper estimates the capital coefficients and the dynamic multipliers of Oklahoma regional economy. Finally, it provides a comparative study of dynamic multipliers for various industries.The author is grateful to Professor Wassily Leontief who generously sent him the U.S. Capital Coefficient data and to the referees for their valuable suggestions. This research was supported in part by the Center for Economic and Management Research, the University of Oklahoma. Mr. Chun K. Chang and Mr. Ui Nam Choi provided computer assistance and data gathering works. The final revision was done at Harvard University.     

The dynamic variable input-output model: An advancement from the Leontief dynamic input-output model

The Dynamic Variable Input-Output (VIO) model extends the static single regional version of the Multiregional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model which is a general equilibrium model applied to the Leontief Input-Output model. The Dynamic VIO model which incorporates time dimensions can describe the real situation more accurately while maintaining the computational simplicity. Under the model, the investment expenditures are directly linked with the profit maximizing behavior of firms. Both technical coefficients and capital stock requirement coefficients include price terms, and they become variable instead of being fixed.  By gathering investment terms together instead of separating them as is done in Leontief's Dynamic output equation, we not only preserve the consistency between time-specific dynamic multipliers and total dynamic multipliers, but also get over the shortcoming of the negative occurences of the Leontief's multiplier matrices, particularly the impact (initial period) multiplier matrix.  Using the 15 sector interindustry transaction table derived from the 1987 U.S. benchmark input-output table, we estimate dynamic output and income multipliers for all industries.  Empirical results show that, over all industries, dynamic total multipliers of the Dynamic VIO model are larger than static multipliers of the static Household Interactive VIO (HIVIO) model. Static multipliers of the static Household Interactive VIO (HIVIO) model which lie between Leontief's static type I and type II multipliers are exactly the same as the impact (initial period) multiplier of the Dynamic VIO model. Similarly, dynamic total multipliers of the Dynamic VIO model are larger than those of the Leontief static type I and type II multipliers, and multipliers of the Leontief dynamic (in nested form) IO model. Thereby, the study demonstrates that the static HIVIO model and the Leontief IO models (both static and dynamic (in nested form)) underestimate actual impacts. The study also shows that the sum of all time-specific multipliers of the dynamic VIO model equals to dynamic total multiplier; thus, consistency is ensured in the dynamic multipliers of the Dynamic VIO model. The multipliers of the dynamic VIO model vary among different industries, and they decrease as the number of time lags increase with the initial period impact as the largest. The percent distributions of multipliers over time periods reveal that ripple effects of spending are mostly recognized during the first four periods. The dynamic multipliers of the Dynamic VIO model are useful information in evaluating the long-term economic effects of spending. Received: August 1996/Accepted: March 1999     

A continuous Leontief dynamic input-output model

This paper extends the Leontief dynamic input-output model by incorporating continuous lags, capacity constraints, excess capacity and limits on disinvestment in each sector. These extensions result in phase changes, where sectors discretely change from one set of conditions to another. The resulting system of equations is solved by numerical methods and applied to the U.S. economy. Projections for the 1952 to 1962 period are compared with actual levels.     

Some accounting procedures and their effects on input-output multipliers

This paper examines three accounting procedures in input-output analysis, namely the valuation of transactions (purchasers' v. producers' prices), the allocation of competitive imports (direct v. indirect allocation), and the treatment of intrasectoral transactions (gross v. net tables). Two tables, namely the Australian National tables, and the Central Queensland regional tables were modified to express common combinations of accounting procedures; output multipliers were obtained for each form of the tables and compared. The results show some substantial differences in both the magnitude and ranking of the multipliers from different forms of the tables.     

A multiregional,multiproduct, household interactive,variable input-output model

This paper introduces a multiregional, multiproduct, household interactive, variable input-output (MMHIVIO) model. The MMHIVIO model is a general equilibrium model which captures the interactions and the optimizing behavior of consumers and producers in the space economy. It is not only consistent with the theories of consumer and producer behavior, it also makes it relatively easy to solve because it reduces to several blocks of linear systems of equations. The model is used to evaluate the economic effects of the Ohio River Navigation System.     

The Model Reference Adaptive System in the dynamic input-output model

In this paper we explore the use of the Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) in a dynamic socio-economic enviroment. We prove the existence of adaptation laws which ensure that the error equation in MRAS for a dynamic input-output model is asymptotically stable. The resulting theorems are appraised through some numerical simulations.     

Economic base and input-output multipliers a comparison for Vancouver,B. C.

The Annals of Regional Science - Employment multipliers for the metropolitan economy of Vancouver are derived from both economic base and input-out-put models of the region. The principal...     

Excel在动态GM(1,1)模型预测及检验中的应用

通过Microsoft Excel 2003建立灰色模型GM(1,1)进行预测,并给出了模型的残差检验、级比偏差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验在Microsoft Excel 2003中的检验过程,验证模型的精度是否满足要求.采用等维递补灰色数列进行动态的滚动预测,提高了精度.     

Dynamic regional multipliers and the economic base: An application of applied econometric techniques

This paper considers recent developments in econometrics that have helped to resolve the apparent dichotomy between time-series analysis and dynamic econometrics. In particular, the paper shows how the concepts of cointegration and error-correction models can be used in the estimation of dynamic regional multipliers. Using the results of a pilot study for Northern Ireland it is shown how the techniques provide a new method for estimating the economic base, and an encompassing approach to early conflicting results.     

Dynamic Priority–Dynamic Programming Scheduling Method (DP)SM: a dynamic approach to resource constraint project scheduling

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first to introduce and evaluate a dynamic priority scheduling model developed in this research for solving the resource constraint project scheduling problem and second, to introduce an improvement made upon the first model by cross-breeding Dynamic Programming with the Dynamic Priority Scheduling Method (DPSM). The second model, called the Dynamic Priority Dynamic Programming Scheduling Method [(DP)²SM], aims at optimising the staged resource allocation decisions in DPSM. DPSM divides a project into phases (cycles), the length of which depends on the duration of the project and the period of clock cycle selected. The scheduling process starts by allocating resources to the first phase/cycle using a variety of policies, then the best schedule is selected based on an objective function. The process continues till all the activities are scheduled. In DPSM the interaction between phases is ignored while the decisions of each phase or cycle will affect all the remaining phases. Using (DP)²SM it may be possible to improve the quality of a schedule and reduce the duration of a project by optimising the overall project schedule.     

Welfare payments and migration in a nonlinear,extended input-output model with an application to Scotland

This paper examines an extended input-output model that includes a migration mechanism and a locally funded welfare benefit regime. The model is developed to include two regions. Two different solution methods of the model are discussed, one involving the introduction of nonlinearities into the input-output framework. The results of the two solutions are compared using test data for a one-region formulation, and data for a two-region division of Scotland. The regional impacts of varying unemployment benefits differentially are assessed, and a range of impacts of economic and demographic regional injections presented.     

A metropolitan input-output model: Multisectoral and multispatial relations of production,income formation,and consumption

This study formulates a metropolitan input-output model (hereafter MIO) that incorporates the multispatial and multisectoral nature of an urban economic system. Two main features can be highlighted which distinguish the MIO model from other input-output models as applied to the urban context. The MIO model integrates information on intrametropolitan flows of people, commodities and services through the embedding approach within an input-output framework. Accordingly, the model has been built in one methodological framework (input-output framework) and operated by using one calculation system (inversion of input coefficient matrix), taking interspatial and intersectoral linkages into consideration. Another unique characteristic of the proposed model is that the input coefficient matrix of the MIO model consists of three partitioned matrices that have different spatial dimensions: interindustrial technical coefficients by place of production; the income coefficients by place of residence, and consumption coefficients by place of consumption. The MIO model can be applied for the impact analysis of a variety of urban policy evaluations. The main sets of results are derived as outputs from the MIO model: gross output and employment by zone, by sector, by income group, and by repercussion type.The early version of this paper was presented at the Western Regional Science Association (WRSA), February 25-28, 2001, Palm Springs, CA. This Research was supported by the Chung-Ang University Special Research Grants in 1999.     

Economic impacts of transportation network changes: Implementation of a combined transportation network and input-output model

This article estimates and evaluates the economic impacts from a catastrophic earthquake within regional and national contexts, emphasising the inter-industry relationship in conjunction with regional commodity flows and the assessment of seismic damages on a transportation network. The analytical methods employed are twofold: a multi-regional input-output model and a regional commodity flow model. Using the above analytical framework, the economic impacts from a catastrophic earthquake are estimated and evaluated based on hypothetical scenarios of the event, by analysing the magnitude and extent of direct and indirect impacts. Furthermore, as possible extensions, the models developed here can be used as tools for strategic management of the recovery and reconstruction efforts after the event. Received: 24 September 2000 / Accepted: 23 May 2001     

基于经济投入-产出生命期评价模型的我国建筑物化能与大气影响分析

在我国城市化进程加速与基础设施大规模建设的社会发展背景下,研究建筑物化能消耗量及其所导致的大气污染物排放量。从全社会经济活动的角度出发,以建筑生命期为主线,建立并运行经济投入-产出生命期评价模型,比较和分析建筑物化能的来源与组成,量化主要大气污染物的排放。此外,对建筑物化能与大气影响进行预测分析,并为建筑节能减排工作提出对策与建议。研究结果表明:建筑物化能约占我国社会总能耗量的16%,因此对其研究不可忽视;各类能源在消耗过程中所释放的有害气体,是我国大气环境的重要污染源;若继续2002年的产业关联状况水平,2015年我国建筑物化能及其大气污染物在全社会总能源消耗和污染物排放中的比重将持续上升。研究成果丰富了全生命周期评价模型在我国建筑领域的应用,完善当前的相关统计数据,为我国广义建筑能耗与环境影响问题提供计算方法和数据支持,同时也为政府主管部门制定相关政策提供理论参考与依据。     

Static and dynamic interactive buckling of isotropic thin-walled closed columns with variable thickness

The present paper deals with static and dynamic analysis of interactive buckling of thin-walled closed columns with variable thickness subjected to in-plane constant and/or pulse loading. This investigation is concerned with thin-walled structures with corners bevelled at the angle of 45° under axial compression. The plate model is adopted for the structures. The material, all plates are made of, is subject to Hooke's law. The structures are assumed to be simply supported at the ends. The differential equations of motion have been obtained from Hamilton's principle. In this paper the static solution has been obtained by Koiter's asymptotic method in the second-order approximation. The study is based on the numerical method of the transition matrix using Godunov's orthogonalization. The interaction of an overall mode with two local modes having the same wavelength has been considered (i.e. three-mode approach). The nonlinear equations of dynamic stability are solved with the Runge–Kutta method. The calculations are carried out for settled imperfections.     

An input-output analysis of recreational fishing expenditures (2006 & 2011) across the southern United States

This paper examines the economic contribution of recreational fishing expenditures across the southern United States (US). Input-output models were constructed for each southern state using US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) fishing expenditures data, both saltwater and freshwater, to determine the direct, indirect, and induced effects of these expenditures. Comparisons were made between pre- and post-recession (2006 and 2011), freshwater and saltwater fishing, and between states. Expenditures were essentially unchanged from 2006 to 2011; but numbers of participating anglers increased by ten percent and the economic contribution generated by the expenditures increased by 10–30%, depending on the economic indicator. The variations across states were substantial, with Florida dominating the others, especially in saltwater fishing. This study documents the important economic contributions of recreational fishing.     

变风量空调系统发展状况

介绍了国外变风量(VAV)系统的研究和应用现状。分析了国内VAV系统研究和应用中存在的问题,指出了其发展方向。总结了变风量空调系统的发展趋势和技术关键。     

动三轴试验研究土的动剪切模量和阻尼比

对不同土样的动剪切模量和阻尼比进行试验研究,最后采用曲线拟合得到动剪切模量以及阻尼比与剪应变的关系曲线,可供岩土和其他土木工程的地震安全性评价工作参考和借鉴.