一种基于Bayes方法的随机模型修正方法

提出了一种随机模型的修正方法用以估计结构参数的统计特性.基于Bayes方法的参数估计原理,将需要修正的结构参数的均值和方差看作符合一定先验概率分布的随机变量,根据核密度估计原理构建得到似然函数,进而使用基于差分进化的MCMC方法估计参数的后验概率密度,并根据最大后验概率密度准则估计结构参数的均值和方差.同时使用Kriging方法建立了结构输入和输出之间的代理模型,保证计算精度的同时极大地节约了计算时间.数值算例验证了本方法的可行性.     

基于概率统计方法的隔震结构可靠度

该文用概率统计的方法分析隔震结构的抗震可靠度。对两个实际的隔震结构建立三维有限元模型并进行时程分析,求得层相对加速度、层间位移角、隔震支座剪应变和压应力等结构的动力响应参数,同时,收集隔震支座力学性能的实验数据并结合数值模拟,用假设检验方法,明确了隔震结构的各动力响应参数和隔震支座的抗力参数均服从对数正态分布,再用最大似然估计法,得到了隔震结构各动力响应和隔震支座抗力的概率特征参数。给定隔震结构的失效模式,建立以结构抗力和反应为变量的功能函数,采用一次二阶矩法,分析隔震体系的抗震可靠度,结果发现：按目前《建筑抗震设计规范》的隔震结构,与非隔震结构相比,即使上部结构的水平地震作用减小60%~70%,也不一定能达到“中震不坏”和“极大震不倒”的抗震性能目标,说明在编的《建筑隔震设计规范》对隔震建筑提出更高的要求。     

(μ,λ)演化策略的收敛定理

给出（μ，λ）型深化策略的一个一般的收敛定理并给出其在实际算法中的两个应用，对连续目标函数，通过研究算法种群达到目标函数全局极大解集邻域的概率，得到此概率的一个递推估计式。利用此估计式给出算法种群依概率收敛于目标函数全局最优解集的一个有价值的充分条件。     

结合近似贝叶斯计算和改进群体蒙特卡洛抽样的结构损伤识别

为避免陷入低概率区抽样并提高抽样效率,改进了群体蒙特卡洛(PMC)抽样算法,再结合近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)和随机响应面(SRS)提出一种概率损伤识别方法。首先将ABC和改进PMC算法进行嵌套,利用每个迭代步的样本方差来搅动粒子群和求取自适应权重系数,再构造衡量仿真和实测样本间相似度的误差函数,用于替代似然函数;然后使用SRS建立结构随机响应的显式表达式,大幅提高响应统计特征值的计算效率;最后将求得的参数后验概率分布统计特征值作为损伤指标,根据损伤前后指标值的变化来判断损伤位置和程度。对试验钢筋混凝土梁的单、多工况损伤进行了识别,验证了所提出方法在保证参数后验分布估计精度的条件下,可以有效提高贝叶斯推断过程的计算效率。     

海水槽控温波动性及均匀性的概率密度分布分析

针对海水槽控温波动性和均匀性所满足概率分布的推断问题,提出一种基于卡方检验的概率密度函数统计推断方法。该方法由波动性和均匀性测量数据的直方图获取其概率分布的直观印象,进而确定概率分布函数的数学形式。采用最大似然法对函数未知参数进行估计;由卡方检验法实现对其概率分布的严格统计推断。通过测量数据的分析,得到海水槽控温波动性和均匀性的概率密度分布函数,避免在海水槽测量不确定度评定中主观确定概率分布函数等问题。     

GPS接收机伪码捕获自适应判决门限估计算法(英文)

GPS接收机输入信号的功率随时间而变化,如果采用固定门限判决是否完成捕获会出现检测概率降低或虚警概率提高的问题.鉴于此,提出了采用自适应捕获门限判决策略完成信号捕获.采用最大似然估计原理,根据判决统计量的样本值得到了噪声方差的最大似然估计,进而求得恒虚警率下的自适应捕获门限.同时,信号的平均捕获时间是GPS接收机性能的重要指标之一,研究了载波频率与伪码相位均为不确定值时的平均捕获时间的计算方法,推导了平均捕获时间与信噪比及门限值之间的约束关系.分析结果表明,自适应门限捕获方法能减小平均捕获时间,实现信号的快速捕获.     

集中交互式多传感器联合概率数据互联算法

为了解决杂波环境下多传感器多机动目标跟踪问题,本文提出了一种集中交互式多传感器联合概率数据互联算法。本文提出的算法首先应用广义S-D分配的规则对每个传感器送来的观测数据进行排列组合,并对所有的测量组合进行有效性判断,然后应用数据压缩的方法将每个有效量测组合压缩成一个等效量测点并根据每个等效量测点的联合似然函数计算其联合互联概率,最后在此基础上应用交互式多模型算法的思想以处理目标出现机动的问题。本文最后给出了该算法的分析,仿真结果表明,本文算法能够很好地解决杂波环境下多传感器多机动目标的跟踪问题。     

混合高斯参数估计的两种EM算法比较

混合高斯模型是一种典型的非高斯概率密度模型,获得广泛应用。其参数的优效估计可以通过最大似然方法获得,但最大似然估计往往因其非线性而难以实现,故期望最大化(Expectation-Maximization,EM)迭代算法成为一种常用的替代方法。常规EM算法性能受迭代初值设置影响大,且不能对模型阶数做出估计。一种名为贪婪EM的改进算法可以克服这两个缺点,获得更为准确的模型参数估计,但其运算量一般会远大于前者。本文对这两种EM算法进行综合研究,深入挖掘两者之间的关系,并基于相同的数值仿真实例,直观地演示比较两者的性能差异。     

基于改进极大似然的随机噪声非线性系统辨识

针对具有随机噪声电厂风机系统的非线性特性,提出一种改进极大似然参数识别方法IMLE,将协方差阵未知的极大似然参数估计的损失函数的一步差分,改为对二维损失函数寻优的概率,采用在统计各个随机点损失函数基础上,设置该随机数值点的点循环,搜索损失函数的隐函数中的寻极小值,推导出具有随机噪声点的点循环的递推极大似然参数识别方法,从而识别出在全局随机噪声扰动下非线性系统的参数。某煤矸石电厂的560 KW一次风机参数识别仿真结果表明,该方法比常规的极大似然递推算法具有更好的非线性识别能力,识别参数的方差从35%降低到0.1%。我们已对该一次风机进行了高压变频改造,该电厂风机运行记录表明,节能效果明显。     

一种目标跟踪中的模糊核直方图

针对目标模型内的背景像素造成目标跟踪定位偏差的问题,提出了一种适合于目标跟踪的模糊核直方图.通过在核直方图中引入模糊隶属度,可降低背景像素对目标特征的影响.另外,研究了模糊隶属度函数,根据中心-周围方法提取背景特征,并给出了确定模糊隶属度函数的两种策略,即比率策略和差分策略.在比率策略中采用对数似然函数技术,而在差分策略中采用目标特征与背景特征的差分技术.实验表明,基于比率策略的目标跟踪更适合于场景简单的情形,而基于差分策略的目标跟踪适合于场景复杂的情形.     

Insertion of triangulated surfaces into a meccano tetrahedral discretization by means of mesh refinement and optimization procedures

In this paper, we present a new method for inserting several triangulated surfaces into an existing tetrahedral mesh generated by the meccano method. The result is a conformal mesh where each inserted surface is approximated by a set of faces of the final tetrahedral mesh. First, the tetrahedral mesh is refined around the inserted surfaces to capture their geometric features. Second, each immersed surface is approximated by a set of faces from the tetrahedral mesh. Third, following a novel approach, the nodes of the approximated surfaces are mapped to the corresponding immersed surface. Fourth, we untangle and smooth the mesh by optimizing a regularized shape distortion measure for tetrahedral elements in which we move all the nodes of the mesh, restricting the movement of the edge and surface nodes along the corresponding entity they belong to. The refining process allows approximating the immersed surface for any initial meccano tetrahedral mesh. Moreover, the proposed projection method avoids computational expensive geometric projections. Finally, the applied simultaneous untangling and smoothing process delivers a high‐quality mesh and ensures that the immersed surfaces are interpolated. Several examples are presented to assess the properties of the proposed method.     

Certification Institutions Expected to Update and Transfer Information on Present Standards

Standards are the basis for production enterprises to organize production, ex-factory inspection, trade (delivery) and technical exchanges, product certification, quality arbitration and supervision.……     

Flow calorimeter for enthalpy increment measurements on condensed gases

A flow calorimeter for enthalpy increment measurements on condensed gases is presented. A better knowledge of the properties of the liquefied natural gas is needed, and therefore a liquid loop has been designed for our flow calorimeter. The fluid loop in the calorimeter is designed in order to avoid the two-phase region, since two phases would give compositional disturbances in the measurements. The avoidance of the two-phase region is made possible by increasing the pressure of the test fluid after the measurement section, then heating the fluid at super-critical pressure past the critical point. Finally, the fluid is throttled to the low-pressure gas state at the inlet condition of the compressor that circulates the fluid. To perform the pressure increase, a new cryogenic pump has been designed. To evaluate the new equipment, measurements were taken on liquid ethane over the temperature range 146–256 K at pressure between 0.9 and 5.1 MPa.     

Refrigerators Enter a New Era of Health Preservation Frestech initiates the establishment of China's first standard for household sterilization refrigerators

On November 30, 2007, the China Association for Standardization (CAS) held a press conference at Beijing Diaoyutai State Guest House. Leaders from the China Household Electric Appliance Research Institute, the China Household Electric Appliance Association, and the China Consumers' Association attended and made speeches.……     

Optimum-Simulation von Ernteprozessen

Zusammenfassung Bei der Gestaltung von Ernteprozessen — beispielsweise des Prozesses Mähdrusch, Körnertransport und -abnahme — als transportverbundene Fließarbeitsverfahren mit mindestens zwei verschiedenen Arbeitsmitteln gibt es einen großen Optimierungsspielraum. Solche Prozesse sind mehrstufige Bedienungsprozesse mit gemischter Anordnung der Bedienungseinrichtungen. Außerdem besitzen sie stark ausgeprägte räumliche Aspekte. Es wird vor allem gezeigt, welche Merkmale solcher Prozesse in Simulationsmodellen abgebildet sein müssen, welche Zielgrößen in Abhängigkeit von welchen Einflußgrößen unter Berücksichtigung welcher Prozeßbedingungen ermittelt werden sollten und wie der Bewertungsprozeß zur Ermittlung der gewünschten Informationen gestaltet werden muß.     

A study of centrifugal cast high boron high speed steel

In the present study a high‐boron high speed steel (HSS) roll material was designed. Many expensive alloy elements have been substituted by cheap boron alloy, and high‐boron high speed steel roll has been manufactured by centrifugal casting method. The microstructures, mechanical properties and wear resistance of centrifugal casting high‐boron high speed steel roll have been investigated by optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and X‐ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, hardness test, impact test and wear test. The results indicated that the solidification microstructures of high‐boron high speed steel roll consisted of M₂(B,C), (W,Mo)₂(B,C), M₃(B,C), M₂₃(B,C)₆ type borocarbides and martensite, a small amount of retained austenite. Borocarbides were continuously distributed over the grain boundary. After quenching from 1050 °C, local broken network appeared in partial borocarbides, and fine secondary borocarbide precipitated from the matrix. After tempering from 525 °C, the amount of precipitated borocarbide increased significantly. After heat treatment, the hardness of high‐boron high speed steel roll excelled 60 HRC, and its impact toughness excelled 8.0 J/cm². The single groove steel rolling amount of high‐boron high speed steel rolls increases by 500% than that of bainite cast iron roll, when the rolls are used in K₁ mill housing of bar mill.     

Brainstorming for ISO Strategy 2016-2020

正Responding to ISO’s appeal for survey for the to-be-developed ISO Strategy Plan for 2016-2020,SAC hosted a special workshop over the needs and comments of various fi elds on June 8 in Beijing.The workshop was attended by ISO President-elect and Ansteel General Manager Zhang Xiaogang,SAC Vice-Administrator Yu Xinli,and 30 experts from     

CNAS Passes APLAC's PTP Review

正The review group of Asia Pacific Laboratory Accreditation Cooperation(APLAC)carried out a 4-day peer review of the proficiency testing provider(PTP)for China National Accreditation Service for Conformity Assessment(CNAS)from July 28 to 31,2014.CNAS passed the PTP review with excellent performance.Two senior peer reviewers of APLAC made a comprehensive,rigorous and detailed review of CNAS’s PTP accreditation activities,and made the on-spot inspection of the review groups in Shanghai and Shenzhen respectively.     

新闻(英文)

正China and Greece Sign the Standardization Cooperation Agreement Witnessed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras,AQSIQ Minister Zhi Shuping and ELOT Chairman and Executive Director Angelos Tolkas signed the SAC-ELOT Standardization Cooperation Agreement.The Agreement is one of the critical cooperation documents signed during Li Keqiang’s visit in Greece,encouraging China and Greece to