A data‐driven approach to study the role of interconnectors in a future low‐carbon electricity supply system

This paper investigates the potential role of the electricity interconnectors in improving the security of supply in Great Britain (GB) in 2030. Real electricity demand and price data for GB and France in 2016 were used to understand the relationship between power exchange between the two countries and their wholesale electricity prices. A linear programming optimisation model was developed to find the economic power dispatch. Two interconnection links were considered; two‐way trade interconnector with a capacity of 5.4 GW and a 12.3 GW import‐only interconnector between GB and other states. The GB–France link transmits electricity from cheaper system to the more expensive one. The total electricity demand in 2030 will be 406 TWh. Gas‐fired power plants w/wo CCS will provide 83 TWh of the total electricity demand, whereas nuclear power plants will produce 74 TWh. In addition, wind farms and solar PVs are expected to deliver ~120 TWh electricity. CHP units will provide 88 TWh electricity in 2030. The electricity traded between GB and France in 2030 was found to be 33 TWh, which is 160% larger compared with 2016. The power import from France is about 27 TWh and occurs in 59% of the time. For 64% of the time, the interconnector with France is fully loaded. The electricity imported via the 12.3 GW interconnector in 2030 is 1 TWh and mainly occurs during winter‐time when the demand in GB is high. De‐rated capacity margin was calculated based on instantaneous electricity demand and varies between ?2% and 139%. The impact of the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link was investigated. Increasing the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link results in a higher capacity factor for all the generation options except the 12.3 GW interconnector link.     

Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system

The residual load and excess power generation of 30 European countries with a 100% penetration of variable renewable energy sources are explored in order to quantify the benefit of power transmission between countries. Estimates are based on extensive weather data, which allows for modelling of hourly mismatches between the demand and renewable generation from wind and solar photovoltaics. For separated countries, balancing is required to cover around 24% of the total annual electricity consumption. This number can be reduced down to 15% once all countries are networked together with unconstrained interconnectors. The reduction represents the maximum possible benefit of transmission for the countries. The total Net Transfer Capacity of the unconstrained interconnectors is roughly 11.5 times larger than current values. However, constrained interconnector capacities 5.7 times larger than the current values are found to provide 98% of the maximum possible benefit of transmission. This motivates a detailed investigation of several constrained transmission capacity layouts to determine the export and import capabilities of countries participating in a fully renewable European electricity system.     

Impact of a large penetration of wind generation on the GB gas network

Wind power is expected to be the major element of renewable electricity generation in Great Britain (GB) by 2020 with a capacity of around 30 GW. The potential impact of a large amount of wind generation on the GB gas network was investigated using a combined gas and electricity network model. The varying nature of gas and electric power flows, network support facilities such as gas storage and compressors, and the power ramping characteristics of various power plants were considered. Three case studies were modelled, one case uses the existing network and the other two make use of a hypothesised network in 2020 with two distinct levels of wind generation representing low and high wind periods. The simulation results show that a large penetration of wind generation will influence the electricity generation mix as the wind power varies. Gas-fired generation is used to compensate for wind variability. This will cause increased flows and compressor power consumption on the gas network. Linepack depletion during low wind periods was shown to limit the ability of the gas network to fully supply gas-fired generators.     

Do Intermittent Renewables Threaten the Electricity Supply Security?

Around the globe, intermittent renewable energies in the form of wind and solar power are on the rise. Their subsidization can be seen as a market intervention, which may deter optimal investment. Thus, this study tests the effect of renewable energies on investment in conventional electricity generation technologies. We estimate a dynamic investment model for 14 European economies for the period 2004–2016 and find a non-negligible negative impact of intermittent renewables on investment in peak-load capacity (mainly gas), while base-load (particularly coal) plants are unaffected. However, the production flexibility of gas-fired plants represents a particularly vital function to balance the supply intermittency of wind and solar. Thus, dispatchable conventional power plants are still necessary to back the system under scarcity events, such as unfavorable weather conditions during high electricity demand. Policymakers should be aware of the adverse effects of RES on investment in peak-load plants and may consider a redesign of the current system, for example by introducing capacity markets.     

Effect of the generation mix on wind power introduction

The specific needs and ensuing costs for wind power integration into electricity generation systems depend to a large extent on the operation, composition and behaviour of the electricity generation system. The differences in the considered systems greatly influence the outcomes regarding wind power integration. The generation mix is studied here. Analyses are performed using a mixed integer linear programming model so as to get more insight in the consequences of the design and operation of electricity generation systems including wind power by looking at three distinct case systems. The model takes into account a multitude of technical specificities of the operation of an electricity generation system. The results show several aspects that are strongly related to the composition of electricity generation systems that influence the integration of wind power in the systems. These aspects range from the composition of the system to more specific technical parameters of the power plants and their operation, such as the marginal power plant and the greenhouse gas emission levels. The results shed some light on the reasons for the divergence in wind power integration studies. Moreover, it can help in gaining insights in the future development of electricity generation systems where wind power is being introduced.     

Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems

Ambitious policy targets together with current and projected high growth rates indicate that future power systems will likely show substantially increased generation from renewable energy sources. A large share will come from the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources wind and solar photovoltaics (PV); however, integrating wind and solar causes challenges for existing power systems. In this paper we analyze three major integration challenges related to the structural matching of demand with the supply of wind and solar power: low capacity credit, reduced utilization of dispatchable plants, and over-produced generation. Based on residual load duration curves we define corresponding challenge variables and estimate their dependence on region (US Indiana and Germany), penetration and mix of wind and solar generation. Results show that the impacts of increasing wind and solar shares can become substantial, and increase with penetration, independently of mix and region. Solar PV at low penetrations is much easier to integrate in many areas of the US than in Germany; however, some impacts (e.g. over-production) increase significantly with higher shares. For wind power, the impacts increase rather moderately and are fairly similar in US Indiana and Germany.     

Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach

The literature on renewable energy sources indicates that an increase of the intermittent wind and solar generation affects significantly the distribution of electricity prices. In this article, the influence of two types of renewable energy sources (wind and solar photo voltaic) on the level and variability of German electricity spot prices is analyzed. The quantile regression models are built to estimate the merit order effect for different quantiles of electricity prices. The results indicate that both types of renewable generations have a similar, negative impact on the price level, approximated by the price median. When the price volatility, measured by the inter-quantile range (IQR), is considered, the outcomes show that wind and solar influence prices differently. Conditional on the level of the total demand, the wind generation would either increase (when the demand is low) or decrease (when the demand is high) the IQR. Meanwhile, the increase of solar power stabilizes the price variance for moderate demand level. Thus, policy supporting the development and integration of RES should search for a balance between the wind and solar power.     

Geographic aggregation and wind power output variance in Denmark

At modest penetration, wind power merely substitutes electricity generated typically at thermal power plants. In this case, wind power only provides economic benefits in terms of saved marginal fuel and operation and maintenance costs. At higher penetrations, it becomes increasingly important for the energy system to be able to operate without costly reserve capacity awaiting fluctuations in demand or wind power generation. Existing transmission interconnections have mainly been established in order to assist in reducing the reserve capacity of thermal power systems. While indeed relevant in thermal systems, this is typically even more important in renewable energy-based systems, in which fluctuations to a large extent are uncontrollable. This makes interconnected systems an interesting option for integrating electricity produced from such energy sources. Using a Danish example, this article demonstrates how different demand and wind production variations in different geographical areas assist in evening out fluctuations and reducing imbalances in systems with high penetrations of wind power. By exploiting these variations, the needs for reserve capacity and condensing mode power generation are reduced. However, the article also demonstrates that there are limits to what can be gained on this account.     

Impact of large amounts of wind power on the operation of an electricity generation system: Belgian case study

Wind power can have considerable impacts on the operation of electricity generation systems. Energy from wind power replaces other forms of electricity generation, thereby lowering overall fuel costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the intermittency of wind power, reflected in its variability and relative unpredictability restrains the full potential benefits of wind power. The variable nature of wind power requires power plants to be ready for bridging moments of low wind power output. The occurrence of forecast errors for wind speed necessitates sufficient reserve capacity in the system, which cannot be used for other useful purposes. These forecast errors inevitably cause efficiency losses in the operation of the system. To analyse the extent of these impacts, the Belgian electricity generation system is taken as a case and investigated on different aspects such as technical limitations for wind power integration and cost and GHG emissions’ reduction potential of wind power under different circumstances.     

A conceptual chemical looping combustion power system design in a power-to-gas energy storage scenario

Increasing global energy demand and the continued reliance on non-renewable energy sources, especially in developing countries, will cause continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions unless alternative electricity generation methods are employed. Although renewable energy sources can provide a clean way to produce electricity, the intermittent nature of many existing renewable energy sources, such as energy from the wind or sun, can cause instability in the energy balance. Energy storage systems such as power-to-gas may provide a clean and efficient way to store the overproduced electricity. In this work, a power-to-gas energy storage system coupled with a chemical looping combustion combined-cycle power generation system is proposed to provide base and intermediate load power from the unused electricity from the grid. Enhanced process integration was employed to achieve optimal heat and exergy recovery. The simulation results using ASPEN Plus V8.8 suggest that electric power generation with an overall energy efficiency of 56% can be achieved by using a methane chemical looping combustion power generation process with additional hydrogen produced from a solid oxide electrolysis cell. The proposed system was also evaluated to further improve the system's total energy efficiency by changing the key operating parameters.     

Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER,an aggregated energy system simulation model

The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in power systems worldwide, and could also be important in future mitigation strategies. It is therefore important that the electricity sector and the integration of VRE are correctly represented in energy models. This paper presents an improved methodology for representing the electricity sector in the long-term energy simulation model TIMER using a heuristic approach to find cost optimal paths given system requirements and scenario assumptions. Regional residual load duration curves have been included to simulate curtailments, storage use, backup requirements and system load factor decline as the VRE share increases. The results show that for the USA and Western Europe at lower VRE penetration levels, backup costs form the major VRE cost markup. When solar power supplies more than 30% of the electricity demand, the costs of storage and energy curtailments become increasingly important. Storage and curtailments have less influence on wind power cost markups in these regions, as wind power supply is better correlated with electricity demand. Mitigation scenarios show an increasing VRE share in the electricity mix implying also increasing contribution of VRE for peak and mid load capacity. In the current scenarios, this can be achieved by at the same time installing less capital intensive gas fired power plants. Sensitivity analysis showed that greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector in the updated model are particularly sensitive to the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power and the costs of VRE.     

Operational costs induced by fluctuating wind power production in Germany and Scandinavia

Adding wind power generation in a power system changes the operational patterns of the existing units due to the variability and partial predictability of wind power production. For large amounts of wind power production, the expectation is that the specific operational costs (fuel costs, start-up costs, variable operation and maintenance costs, costs of consuming CO2 emission permits) of the other power plants will increase due to more operation time in part-load and more start-ups. The change in operational costs induced by the wind power production can only be calculated by comparing the operational costs in two power system configurations: with wind power production and with alternative wind production having properties such as conventional production, that is, being predictable and less variable. The choice of the characteristics of the alternative production is not straightforward and will therefore influence the operational costs induced by wind power production. A method is applied for calculating the change in operational costs due to wind power production using a stochastic optimisation model covering the power systems in Germany and the Nordic countries. Two cases of alternative production are used to calculate the change in operational costs, namely perfectly predictable wind power production enabling the calculation of the costs connected to partial predictability and constant wind power production enabling the calculation of the operational costs connected to variability of wind power production. A 2010 case with three different wind power production penetration levels is analysed.     

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment, backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.     

Does bulk electricity storage assist wind and solar in replacing dispatchable power production?

This paper discusses the impact of bulk electric storage on the production from dispatchable power plants for rising variable renewable electricity shares. Two complementary optimization frameworks are used to represent power systems with a varying degree of complexity. The corresponding models approximate the wholesale electricity market, combined with the rational retirement of dispatchable capacity. Two different generic storage technologies are introduced exogenously to assess their impact on the system.The analysis covers two countries: France, where the power supply's large nuclear share allows for the discussion of storage impact on a single generator type; and Germany, whose diverse power supply structure enables storage interactions with multiple electricity generators. In the most general case, additional storage capacity increases dispatchable power production (e.g. nuclear, coal) for small wind and solar shares, i.e. it compensates the replacement induced by renewable energies. For larger variable renewable electricity volumes, it actively contributes to dispatchable power replacement. In a diverse power system, this results in storage-induced sequential mutual replacements of power generation from different plant types, as wind and solar capacities are increased.This mechanism is strongly dependent on the technical parameters of the storage assets. As a result, the impact of different storage types can have opposite signs under certain circumstances. The influence of CO₂ emission prices, wind and solar profile shapes, and power plant ramping costs is discussed.     

Study on electrical energy and prospective electricity generation from renewable sources in Australia

Nowadays renewable sources are being used as clean sources to generate electricity and to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels. The uses of renewable sources are being increased in electricity generation and contributed to reduce the greenhouse gas emission. The function of any electrical power system is to connect everyone sufficiently, clean electric power anywhere and anytime of the country. This can be achieved through a modern power system by integrating electrical energy from clean renewable sources into the nation's electric grid to enhance reliability, efficiency and security of the power system. The paper on the status of review the driving force of the generation of renewable energy and proposing electrical energy generation from renewable sources to be ensured at least 20% of total energy of Australia. This paper has been studied the existing electricity generation capacity of Australia from renewable and non-renewable sources. Optimal electricity generation from renewable sources has been examined. The environmental impact of electricity generation from renewable sources has been considered. Under this paper the yearly average wind data of past 20 years and above for some meteorological stations of Australia have been used. The prospective electricity generation from wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels has been proposed in the paper that will increase electrical energy of the power grid of Australia. It was estimated the capital cost of prospective electricity generation farms from wind and solar PV sources.     

Flexibility in Europe's power sector — An additional requirement or an automatic complement?

By 2050, the European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gases by more than 80%. The EU member states have therefore declared to strongly increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the next decades. Given a large deployment of wind and solar capacities, there are two major impacts on electricity systems: First, the electricity system must be flexible enough to cope with the volatile RES-E generation, i.e., ramp up supply or ramp down demand on short notice. Second, sufficient back-up capacities are needed during times with low feed-in from wind and solar capacities. This paper analyzes whether there is a need for additional incentive mechanisms for flexibility in electricity markets with a high share of renewables. For this purpose, we simulate the development of the European electricity markets up to the year 2050 using a linear investment and dispatch optimization model. Flexibility requirements are implemented in the model via ramping constraints and provision of balancing power. We found that an increase in fluctuating renewables has a tremendous impact on the volatility of the residual load and consequently on the flexibility requirements. However, any market design that incentivizes investments in least (total system) cost generation investment does not need additional incentives for flexibility. The main trigger for investing in flexible resources is the achievable full load hours and the need for backup capacity. In a competitive market, the cost-efficient technologies that are most likely to be installed, i.e., gas-fired power plants or flexible CCS plants, provide flexibility as a by-product. Under the condition of system adequacy, flexibility never poses a challenge in a cost-minimal capacity mix. Therefore, any market design incentivizing investments in efficient generation thus provides flexibility as an inevi complement.     

Economic implications of thermal energy storage for concentrated solar thermal power

Solar energy is an attractive renewable energy source because the sun's energy is plentiful and carbon-free. However, solar energy is intermittent and not suitable for base load electricity generation without an energy backup system. Concentrated solar power (CSP) is unique among other renewable energy options because it can approach base load generation with molten salt thermal energy storage (TES). This paper describes the development of an engineering economic model that directly compares the performance, cost, and profit of a 110-MW parabolic trough CSP plant operating with a TES system, natural gas-fired backup system, and no backup system. Model results are presented for 0–12 h backup capacities with and without current U.S. subsidies. TES increased the annual capacity factor from around 30% with no backup to up to 55% with 12 h of storage when the solar field area was selected to provide the lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Using TES instead of a natural gas-fired heat transfer fluid heater (NG) increased total plant capital costs but decreased annual operation and maintenance costs. These three effects led to an increase in the LCOE for PT plants with TES and NG backup compared with no backup. LCOE increased with increasing backup capacity for plants with TES and NG backup. For small backup capacities (1–4 h), plants with TES had slightly lower LCOE values than plants with NG backup. For larger backup capacities (5–12 h), plants with TES had slightly higher LCOE values than plants with NG backup. At these costs, current U.S. federal tax incentives were not sufficient to make PT profitable in a market with variable electricity pricing. Current U.S. incentives combined with a fixed electricity price of $200/MWh made PT plants with larger backup capacities more profitable than PT plants with no backup or with smaller backup capacities. In the absence of incentives, a carbon price of $100–$160/tonne CO_2eq would be required for these PT plants to compete with new coal-fired power plants in the U.S. If the long-term goal is to increase renewable base load electricity generation, additional incentives are needed to encourage new CSP plants to use thermal energy storage in the U.S.     

Survey of Western U.S. electric utility resource plans

We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 – before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.     

Spatial variation of emissions impacts due to renewable energy siting decisions in the Western U.S. under high-renewable penetration scenarios

One of the policy goals motivating programs to increase renewable energy investment is that renewable electric generation will help reduce emissions of CO₂ as well as emissions of conventional pollutants (e.g., SO₂ and NO_x). As a policy instrument, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) encourage investments in wind, solar and other generation sources with the goal of reducing air emissions from electricity production. Increased electricity production from wind turbines is expected to displace electricity production from fossil-fired plants, thus reducing overall system emissions. We analyze the emissions impacts of incremental investments in utility-scale wind power, on the order of 1 GW beyond RPS goals, in the Western United States using a utility-scale generation dispatch model that incorporates the impacts of transmission constraints. We find that wind investment in some locations leads to slight increases in overall emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x. The location of wind farms influences the environmental impact by changing the utilization of transmission assets, which affects the overall utilization of power generation sources and thus system-level emissions. Our results suggest that renewable energy policy beyond RPS targets should be carefully crafted to ensure consistency with environmental goals.