The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis

This study presents a model-based approach for analyzing the possible effects of global change on Europe's hydropower potential at a country scale. By comparing current conditions of climate and water use with future scenarios, an overview is provided of today's potential for hydroelectricity generation and its mid- and long-term prospects. The application of the global water model WaterGAP for discharge calculations allows for an integrated assessment, taking both climate and socioeconomic changes into account. This study comprises two key parts: First, the ‘gross’ hydropower potential is analyzed, in order to outline the general distribution and trends in hydropower capabilities across Europe. Then, the assessment focuses on the ‘developed’ hydropower potential of existing hydropower plants, in order to allow for a more realistic picture of present and future electricity production. For the second part, a new data set has been developed which geo-references 5991 European hydropower stations and distinguishes them into run-of-river and reservoir stations. The results of this study present strong indications that, following moderate climate and global change scenario assumptions, severe future alterations in discharge regimes have to be expected, leading to unstable regional trends in hydropower potentials with reductions of 25% and more for southern and southeastern European countries.     

An estimation of the Swiss hydropower rent

The electricity generation in Switzerland is mostly based on hydropower (∼58%) and nuclear power (∼38%). The exploitation of water in the hydropower sector can generate significant economic rent. One possibility to capture this rent is through royalties or fees. This system has been used in Switzerland since many decades. However, the actual water fee system is not flexible and does not take into consideration different production costs between the type and location of hydropower plants. Furthermore, storage plants can sell electricity to a higher price than run-of-river plants. A flexible system is needed in a liberalized electricity market, to take into account these different production situations and the fact that prices may vary considerably over time. The main goal of this paper is to calculate the potential economic rent that could be generated in the Swiss hydropower sector under a future liberalized market. Based on the results of the paper, it can be concluded that the introduction of a flexible fee system could improve the competitiveness of the hydropower sector and promote an energy system based on renewable energy sources.     

An optimal mix of solar PV,wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil

Brazil has to expand its power generation capacities due to significant projected growth of demand. The government aims at adding hydropower capacities in North–Brazil, additional to wind and thermal power generation. However, new hydropower may affect environmentally and socially sensitive areas in the Amazon region negatively while thermal power generation produces greenhouse gas emissions. We therefore assess how future greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production in Brazil can be minimized by optimizing the daily dispatch of photovoltaic (PV), wind, thermal, and hydropower plants. Using a simulation model, we additionally assess the risk of loss of load. Results indicate that at doubled demand in comparison to 2013, only 2% of power production has to be provided by thermal power. Existing reservoirs of hydropower are sufficient to balance variations in renewable electricity supply at an optimal mix of around 37% of PV, 9% of wind, and 50% of hydropower generation. In a hydro-thermal only scenario, the risk of deficit increases tenfold, and thermal power production four-fold. A sensitivity analysis shows that the choice of meteorological data sets used for simulating renewable production affects the choice of locations for PV and wind power plants, but does not significantly change the mix of technologies.     

Application of geographical information system to site selection of small run-of-river hydropower project by considering engineering/economic/environmental criteria and social impact

In the process of site selection of a small run-of-river hydropower project in Thailand, some problems are addressed as follows: the accessibility of the possible sites which are mostly located in rural and mountainous areas, the large amount of data required, and the lack of participation of the local people living nearby. In order to cope with these problems, this study proposes a new method to select feasible sites of small run-of-river hydropower projects by using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. A combination of engineering, economic, and environmental criteria, as well as social impact is employed in this study. The selected study area is the upper Nan river basin situated in the north of Thailand. For the engineering criteria, the project locations are found by GIS in visual basic platform, and then economic evaluations of the selected projects are performed. Next, the environmental parameters are used to rank the projects by total weighted scores. Finally, a social impact study at the potential sites is conducted based on the public participation process, i.e. questionnaire survey and focus group discussions. The applicability of the proposed method is verified by the results of site selection of the small hydropower projects located on the Nan river basin in Thailand. This case study can be the model for the process of site selection of similar projects.     

Gis-based procedures for hydropower potential spotting

The increasing demand for energy, especially from renewable and sustainable sources, spurs the development of small hydropower plants and encourages investment in new survey studies. Preliminary hydropower survey studies usually carry huge uncertainties about the technical, economic and environmental feasibility of the undeveloped potential. This paper presents a methodology for large-scale survey of hydropower potential sites to be applied in the inception phase of hydroelectric development planning. The sequence of procedures to identify hydropower sites is based on remote sensing and regional streamflow data and was automated within a GIS-based computational program: Hydrospot. The program allows spotting more potential sites along the drainage network than it would be possible in a traditional survey study, providing different types of dam-powerhouse layouts and two types (operating modes) of projects: run-of-the-river and storage projects. Preliminary results from its applications in a hydropower-developed basin in Brazil have shown Hydrospot’s limitations and potentialities in giving support to the mid-to-long-term planning of the electricity sector.     

小水电灵活并网控制技术研究

小水电作为一种清洁无污染、可再生、具有良好生态与社会效益的绿色能源,其重要性日益突出。小水电大多分布在山区地带,其中多数小水电为缺乏库容调节能力的径流式水电站。由于山区10 kV馈线供电距离长,沿线大量小水电的无序并网,导致馈线电压经常性越限,严重影响配电网的正常运行。提出一种灵活的网络控制方法,利用调整小水电并网点的方法,改变馈线潮流方向,从而实现抑制馈线电压越限的效果。同时根据广东某地区的小水电线路案例,设计了相应的算例进行仿真计算,验证了所提出方法的正确性和适用性。     

基于中尺度气候模式的降水对水力发电的影响

通过分析水力发电站发电量与地区降水量之间的关系建立由降水驱动的水电响应模型,并在此基础上,使用逐步聚类方法对中尺度的区域气候模式进行统计降尺度,得到未来高精度的降水数据,以此研究未来降水变化对水力发电的影响。以大渡河流域某电站为案例,对其发电量进行模拟与预报,研究在未来气候变化条件下该电站的水力发电变化。结果表明,该电站在未来不同月份和调度时期的降水变化存在差异,由此会造成未来发电高峰期缩短,发电峰值下降,但全年总发电量基本保持不变。     

Optimal installation of small hydropower plant—A review

Most of the countries have access to large amounts of water through rivers and canal. With this renewable resource, electricity can be generated without polluting the environment. Because of the increasing in electricity demand, it is important to estimate the future potential of hydropower. It would then be possible to plan development through mix of energy and implement measures to control the development of the electricity market by the use of sustainable small hydropower projects.In the present paper attempt has been made to review the different types of model developed to evaluate the cost of the small hydropower projects. A review on the different types of correlations developed by earlier investigators has also been presented. The present review attempts to cover the benefits such as clean development mechanism (CDM), internal rate of return (IRR) for financial viability of such projects. A review on the different types of optimization techniques is also been presented to minimize the cost of the installation of SHP projects.     

Methodology for the large-scale assessment of small hydroelectric potential: Application to the Province of New Brunswick (Canada)

The mapping of the small hydropower (SHP) resource over a given territory is indispensable to identify suitable sites for the development of SHP renewable energy projects. In this study, a straightforward method to map the SHP potential over a large territory is presented. The methodology uses a synthetic hydro network (SHN) created from digital elevation models (DEM) to ensure precise hydro head estimations. From the SHN, hydro heads are calculated by subtracting the minimum from the maximum elevation of synthetic stream segments. Subsequently, stream segments with low hydro heads over a specified maximum distance are removed. Finally, the method uses regional regression models to estimate the annual baseflow for all drainage areas in the study area. The technical SHP potential can then be estimated as a function of the hydro head and maximum penstock length. An application of the method is made to the province of New Brunswick, Canada, where SHP maps have been developed to promote the development of the SHP energy sector in the province. In terms of the SHP opportunity, it is shown that the province of New Brunswick (71,450 km²) has a good SHP resource. Using a representative hydro head (10 m) and penstock length (3000 m) for the region, 696 potential sites have been identified over the territory. Results show that the technical SHP potential for New Brunswick is 368 MW for the conventional hydroelectric reservoir SHP configuration, while for the run-of-river SHP configuration, the technical SHP potential is 58 MW.     

Greener energy: Issues and challenges for Pakistan-hydel power prospective

Water is a vital resource that supports all forms of life on earth. Progressive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) from increasing energy-intensive industries has eventually caused human civilization to suffer. During the past two decades, the risk and reality of environmental degradation have become more apparent. Renewable Energy provides an effective option for the provision of energy services from the technical point of view while hydropower, a major source of energy in the, appears an important renewable source of energy, its viability for large-scale energy production. Hydropower is renewable, reliable, clean, and largely carbon-free, and represents a flexible peak-load technology. With most of the world's hydropower potential available for near future development, it is local interests and sovereign states that decide how to manage their water resource base. In Pakistan the availability of power had been continually falling short of the demand of 24,474 MW and as a result, the country is experiencing power shortages of varying degrees in different parts of the country. Geographically, Pakistan has been blessed with river flows that are naturally supportive to electricity generation. Considering the large potential and the intrinsic characteristics of hydropower in promoting the country's energy security and flexibility in system operation, government is tried to accelerate hydropower development through number of policy initiatives. This paper investigates the progress and challenges for hydel power generation in Pakistan according to the overall concept of sustainable development and identifies the region wise potential of hydel power in Pakistan, its current status. Barriers are examined and Policy issue and institutional roles and responsibilities are discussed.     

Dynamic modeling,simulation and control design of an advanced micro-hydro power plant for distributed generation applications

A small-scale hydropower station is usually a run-of-river plant that uses a fixed speed drive with mechanical regulation of the turbine water flow rate for controlling the active power generation. This design enables to reach high efficiency over a wide range of water flows but using a complex operating mechanism, which is in consequence expensive and tend to be more affordable for large systems. This paper proposes an advanced structure of a micro-hydro power plant (MHPP) based on a smaller, lighter, more robust and more efficient higher-speed turbine. The suggested design is much simpler and eliminates all mechanical adjustments through a novel electronic power conditioning system for connection to the electric grid. In this way, it allows obtaining higher reliability and lower cost of the power plant. A full detailed model of the MHPP is derived and a new three-level control scheme is designed. The dynamic performance of the proposed MHPP is validated through digital simulations and employing a small-scale experimental set-up.     

Aiming low and achieving it: A long-term analysis of a renewable policy in Chile

We use an Integrated Resource Planning model to assess the costs of meeting a 70% renewables target by 2050 in Chile. This model is equivalent to a long-term equilibrium in electricity and renewable energy certificate (REC) markets under perfect competition. We consider different scenarios of demand growth, resource eligibility (e.g., large hydropower), and transmission system configuration. Our numerical results indicate that the sole characteristics of the available renewable resources in the country and reductions in technology costs will provide sufficient economic incentives for private investors to supply a fraction of renewables larger than 70% for a broad range of scenarios, meaning that the proposed target will likely remain a symbolic government effort. Increasing transmission capacity between the northern and central interconnected systems could reduce total system cost by $400 million per year and increase the equilibrium share of nonconventional renewable energy (NCRE) in the system from 45% to 52%, without the need for any additional policy incentive. Surprisingly, imposing a 70% of NCRE by 2050 results in a REC price lower than the noncompliance fine used for the current target of 20% of NCRE by 2025, the latter of which represents the country's maximum willingness to pay for the attributes of electricity supplied from NCRE resources.     

Hydropower potential of municipal water supply dams in Turkey: A case study in Ulutan Dam

This paper aims to analyze the hydropower potential of municipal water supply dams in Turkey. The facility is in favor with the energy policy of Turkish Government and European Union. In the study, the design head of the power plant was selected as the average water level of the reservoir and the discharge was calculated from the annual water supply of the dam. It has been estimated that the existing 45 municipal water supply dams of Turkey have an electric energy potential of 173 GWh/year, corresponding to about 24,000,000 Euro/year economic benefit. The financing of these facilities can be provided from international funding institutions. For a case study, Zonguldak Ulutan Dam and its water treatment plant have been investigated in detail. The current electricity consumption of the water treatment plant is 4,500,000 kWh/year and the facility provides 35,000 m³/day water to 6 settlements. The installation of a hydropower plant on the mentioned water treatment plant will cut the electric consumption by 24%. The proposed project has a payback period of 1.4 years and it can produce clean and feasible energy.     

水电开发在我国能源战略中的地位浅析

水电是可再生能源,水电开发在国民经济和社会发展中具有重要的地位和作用,世界上绝大多数国家都是优先发展水电。我国是世界水能资源最为丰富的国家,但目前开发利用率仅为27%。本文在对水电开发现状和能源结构进行分析的基础上,得出大力发展水电既是我国能源战略的必然选择,也是我国可持续发展的选择,并对水电今后如何发展提出了建议。     

Managing carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning: Current practices in the Western United States

Concerns about global climate change have substantially increased the likelihood that future policy will seek to minimize carbon dioxide emissions. As such, even today, electric utilities are making resource planning and investment decisions that consider the possible implications of these future carbon regulations. In this article, we examine the manner in which utilities assess the financial risks associated with future carbon regulations within their long-term resource plans. We base our analysis on a review of the most recent resource plans filed by 15 electric utilities in the Western United States. Virtually all of these utilities made some effort to quantitatively evaluate the potential cost of future carbon regulations when analyzing alternate supply- and demand-side resource options for meeting customer load. Even without federal climate regulation in the US, the prospect of that regulation is already having an impact on utility decision-making and resource choices. That said, the methods and assumptions used by utilities to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of that analysis on their choice of a particular resource strategy, vary considerably, revealing a number of opportunities for analytic improvement. Though our review focuses on a subset of US electric utilities, this work holds implications for all electric utilities and energy policymakers who are seeking to minimize the compliance costs associated with future carbon regulations.     

Electricty generation from woody biomass fuels compared with other renewable energy options

The future New Zealand biomass resource from exotic plantation forest arisings could supply 970 GWh/year by the year 2002. Associated wood processing residues could supply 280 GWh/year. Purpose grown fuelwood plantations could supply 2060 GWh/year with potential to rise to 10,000 GWh/year by 2012.Currently the annual electricity demand is around 30,000 GWh 70% of which is generated by hydro power. Natural gas, a resource with estimated reserves of only approximately 14 years currently supplies 25% of generating capacity. This paper describes how part replacement of gas by biomass could be a feasible proposition for the future.Life cycle cost analyses showed electricity could be generated from arisings for (US)4.8–6 c/kWh; from residues for (US)2.4–4.8 c/kWh; and from plantations for (US)4.8–7.2 c/kWh. For comparison the current retail electricity price is around (US)4–5.5 c/kWh and estimates for wind power generation range from (US)5–10 c/kWh. Future hydropower schemes will generate power between (US)4–9 c/kWh depending on site suitability.     

Prospects and challenges of using hydropower for electricity generation in Lebanon

In a region characterized by low water resources, Lebanon stands as an exceptional country in the Middle East. Several waterways present ample opportunity for utilization of hydropower. Before the civil war, several projects were undertaken to generate electricity through hydropower. A total installed capacity of 283 MW has aided Lebanon in supplementing its need of electricity from local renewable sources, thus reducing the overall bill of imported energy. The available hydropower generation constitutes currently 4–7% of the electricity generation depending on rainfall, with future plans expected to install another 205 MW of capacity. This use is in competition with water diversion for irrigation. Four different scenarios were analyzed to indicate the share of hydropower in the total production of electricity, with and without future irrigation and power projects, indicating that, by 2020, hydropower's share of electricity generation will vary between a maximum of 6.9% and a minimum of 1.2% depending on government plans regarding water use. Current value of potential energy available when water from the Litani river is used for hydropower is estimated to be around 20 cents per m³. Water uses planned should take this value into account.     

Effects of cross-border power trade between Laos and Thailand: Energy security and environmental implications

This paper analyzed the effects of hydropower development in Laos and power trade between Laos and Thailand on economy wide, energy resource mix, power generation capacity mix, energy system cost, environment, as well as, energy security. A MARKAL-based model for an integrated energy system of Laos and Thailand was developed to assess the effects of energy resource development and trade to meet the national energy demands of the two countries. Two national MARKAL-based energy system models of Laos and Thailand were formulated for the study. The results show that 80% exploitation of water resource in Laos would induce power trade between the countries. The integrated energy system cost is found to decrease marginally but it would mitigate the CO₂ emission by 2% when compared with the base case. Thailand is expected to gain benefit from the increased level of power imported from Laos in terms of the lower energy system cost, better environmental quality and, greater diversification of energy sources. As compared to the base case, Laos would become the net energy exporter, earn significant export revenue, and improve the increase in revenue of energy export per increase in total energy system cost from the maximum exploitation of hydropower resource.     

水能资源投入对国民经济增长贡献率的定量研究

采用C-D生产函数理论方法定量分析了水能资源投入对国民经济增长的贡献率.结果表明,全国经济规模的发展速度大于水能资源规模的开发速度,在中国发展水平较低的情况下水能资源作为基本要素的投入很难被资金与劳动力要素有效代替,水能资源投入对第二产业增长的平均贡献率为6.66%、对GDP增长的平均贡献率为3.08%,为国家水电开发及制定宏观经济提供决策.     

GISELA – GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA – GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model – is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.