A multivariate econometric approach for domestic water demand modeling: An application to Kathmandu,Nepal

Domestic water use/demand is a complex function of socio-economic characteristics, climatic factors and public water policies and strategies. This study therefore develops a model based on the multivariate econometric approach which considers these parameters to forecast and manage the domestic water use/demand. The model applies statistical tools to select suitable demand function and most relevant explanatory variables that have strong relationship with water use/demand. The model applicability is demonstrated with an example of domestic water use in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The results indicate that the number of connections, water pricing, public education level, and average annual rainfall are significant variables of domestic water use/demand. The paper further analyzes the effect of length of data series on accuracy of model results. The developed model is used to forecast the water use/demand in the future in the study area.     

The Integrated Management of Water Resources in Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain). A Simultaneous Equation Model

In the Marina Baja region there is a tradition of fierce competition for water resources which necessitates the regulation of institutions in order to satisfy the interests of the different water users. The management of the water resources in this region is based on the water exchange between the different users with no legal modification of the water concessions. This situation requires continuous negotiation in order to maintain the balance between urban, tourism and the agricultural demand. In this article we define, describe and analyse the equilibrium model for water resources of the Marina Baja District using a simultaneous equations model (SEM). We analyse variables that influence the water management model through a simultaneous relationship between the above-mentioned demands in the region of the Marina Baja, using a methodology that directly links urban and irrigation demands and makes them relevant to one another from a socioeconomic point of view.     

智能型水供需平衡模型及其应用

本文介绍了智能型水资源供需平衡模型，阐述了建模思想、模型主要功能、特点和结构。该模型不仅从时间、空间、水源和需水四大方面对水资源系统进行了全面、统一、深入的描述，而且具备智能功能，计算速度得到了成倍提高，从而在巨型水资源系统的系统优化分析方面取得了突破。同时，本文还扼要介绍了该模型在新疆水资源合理配置研究中的应用情况。     

Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach

The water resource issue is one of the most significant problemsthat the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order toevaluate the sustainability of the water resource system inthe study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approachhas been used to develop a model for the water resourcessystem in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to asthe Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It hasbeen developed for simulating a water resource system andcapturing the dynamic character of the main elements affectingwater demand and supply in the study area. For thebusiness-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in theYellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5billion m³ for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing andpotential water supplies from surface water, aquifers andtreated waste-water are estimated, and potential waterdemands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses areprojected. Various water supply and demand scenarios havethen been explored by changing variables and parameters,and the sustainability index of the water supply system isestimated for different sub-regions over various periods.     

Application of the Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm for the Optimization of a General Large-Scale Water Supply System

A water supply system is a complex network of pipes, canals and storage and treatment facilities that collects, treats, stores, and distributes water to consumers. Increasing population and its associated demands requires systems to be expanded and adapted over time to provide a sustainable water supply. Comprehensive design tools are needed to assist managers determine how to plan for future growth. In this study, a general large-scale water supply system model was developed to minimize the total system cost by integrating a mathematical supply system representation and applying an improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm optimization scheme (SFLA). The developed model was applied to two hypothetical water communities. The operational strategies and the capacities for the system components including water transport and treatment facilities are model decision variables. An explicit representation of energy consumption cost for the transporting water in the model assists in determining the efficacy of satellite wastewater treatment facilities. Although the water supply systems studied contained highly nonlinear terms in the formulation as well as several hundred decisions variables, the stochastic search algorithm, SFLA, successfully found solutions that satisfied all the constraints for the studied networks.     

与GDP相关的生活需水量预测模型

在目前生活需水量多种预测方法中,往往回避将经济发展指标作为直接影响因素。本文用传统的预测方法,先对生活必需水量加以预测,然后单独考虑GDP对生活需水量的影响,建立了与GDP相关的生活需水量预测模型。用该模型对西安和北京两地的生活需水量进行预测,结果表明该模型进行生活需水量预测是可行的。     

Water Management of Irrigation Dams Considering Climate Variation: Case Study of Zayandeh-rud Reservoir, Iran

Dependency of reservoir operation on the climate variation occurs especially in regions, where agricultural demand has a significant share of the total water demands. The variability between demands that are based on annual climate conditions may be larger than the uncertainty associated with other explanatory variables in long-term operation of an irrigation dam. This paper proposed a rule curves to the water managers of the Zayandeh-rud reservoir in Iran in long-lead reservoir operation. A regional optimal allocation of water among different crops and irrigation units is developed. The optimal allocation model is coupled with a reservoir operating model, which is developed based on the certain hedging that deals with the available water and the water demands mutually. This coupled model is able to activate restrictions on allocating water to agricultural demands considering variation of inflow to the reservoir, variation of demands and the economic value of allocating water among different crops and irrigation units. The resulted rule curve is presented with a number of tables for more details and accuracy and a simple curve, which is more useful for operational purpose.     

Basin-wide Water Resources Planning by Integrating PSO Algorithm and MODSIM

Water resources planning and management at basin scale is such a large and complex problem that makes it essential to use effective modeling tools in order to obtain an optimum plan for river basins development. In this paper, a methodology is presented for optimized design and operation of the upstream Sirvan basin in Iran. The model proposed integrates MODSIM generalized river basin network flow model, with the capability of simulating various characteristics and features of water resources in a river basin, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. In the developed PSO-MODSIM model, the size of planned dams and water transfer systems, as design variables, and the relative priorities for meeting reservoir target storages, as operational variables, are varied and evolved using PSO algorithm. MODSIM is called to simulate the system performance and to evaluate the fitness of each set of those design and operational variables with respect to the model’s objective function. The PSO objective function is to maximize the total net benefit consisting of benefits due to supplying water to different types of water uses and construction costs of dams and water transfer and/or pumping systems. Varying the design and operational variables in MODSIM 8 is done using the MODSIM’s custom coding feature in VB.NET routine. The PSO-MODSIM model is used to size the planed water storage and transfer components of a river basin system and to allocate water resources optimally over time and space among competing demands, considering coordinated operation of the system components. The model results has been analyzed for different scenarios of water transfer from Sirvan to neighboring basins.     

黄河干流生态与环境需水量研究综述

本研究在收集分析国内外有关生态环境需水研究进展的基础上,紧密结合黄河水环境和水生态特点,界定了黄河生态环境需水量的内涵和组成。对宁蒙(下河沿—头道拐)、龙三(龙门—三门峡)和下游3个重要河段的河道生态需水量、环境需水量计算方法及生态需水量、环境需水量耦合等问题进行了研究,提出了黄河干流10个重要水文断面的适宜生态环境水量和最小生态环境水量。     

基于规则的水资源系统模拟

本文在归纳总结国内外水资源系统模拟研究现状的基础上，提出以规则控制方式实现水资源系统模拟。通过分析水资源系统供、用、耗和排各个环节中所涉及的各类元素及其作用，抽象概括出系统中存在的主要对象，建立符合实际的水资源系统节点图。模型以不同类型的规则描述水利工程的运行和水源对用户的分配，以及天然与人工二元耦合关系下各类水源在网络系统的运移转化和相互作用，实现对系统水量运移转化的透明化控制，建立适用于不同区域的通用化模型。实例证明，通过该种模拟方式可以结合不同区域实际状况、用户需求和实际经验，灵活制定和调整计算规则，提供可靠有效的模拟结果。     

Linking Drought Indicators to Policy Actions in the Tagus Basin Drought Management Plan

One crucial aspect of drought management plans is to establish a link between basin drought state and management actions. Basin state is described by a drought indicator system that includes variables like precipitation, streamflow, reservoir inflow, reservoir storage and groundwater piezometric levels. Basin policy consists on a catalogue of management actions, ranging from enforcing demand reduction strategies to establishing priority of users to allocate scarce water or approving emergency works. In this paper, the methodology applied in the Tagus Basin Drought Management Plan to link operational drought indicators to policy actions in regulated water supply systems is presented. The methodology is based on the evaluation of the probability of not being able to satisfy system demands for a given time horizon. A simplified model of every water resources system in the basin was built to evaluate the threshold of reservoir volume that is required to overcome the drought situation without deficit. For each reservoir level, a set of policy actions is proposed with the goal of guaranteeing essential demands during drought conditions. The methodology was validated with a simulation of system behavior for 60 years of historic streamflow series, finding acceptable results in most systems.     

河道内生态环境需水量探析

文中在综合国内外有关河流系统生态环境需水研究的基础上，以桑干河为例，探讨了河道内生态环境需水量的内涵及组成，并从生态基流、自净需水量及输沙需水量三个方面对河道内生态环境需水量进行了研究。     

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

Optimal planning of water supply system for long-term sustainability

Developing a long-term system plan for sustainable water supply is a challenging task due to system complexity and future uncertainties in water demands and source availability. Here a coupled optimization model is proposed for water supply system design and long-term operations by deciding system component sizes and water flow allocations simultaneously. The objective is to minimize overall system costs (i.e., sum of capital and operation costs) while meeting water demands and operational constraints. The economic costs include initial component construction costs and operation expenditure over pre-defined operation years. The proposed model integrates a genetic algorithm with a linear programming model to optimize water infrastructure investments and annual water transfers satisfying flow constraints. The coupled model was applied to a simplified water supply network composed of multiple water sources and users. For the application network, various qualities of water from different sources could be supplied to different users. Plausible future scenarios with time varying water demands were simulated representing potential future conditions. Application results show that the proposed coupled model is beneficial in decision making process to design structural components in near future and prepare long-term policies for water shortage and water right issues in upcoming years. The model can be tailored to a specific system and various regulations and conditions can be incorporated within the model without adding complexity to the optimization framework.     

基于 CＲOPWAT 模型的大豆需水量及灌溉制度研究

为了研究黑龙江省西部地区气候因素变化对大豆生育期需水量的影响及本地区不同水文年型下大豆灌溉制度,基于黑龙江省哈尔滨市 1956—2015 年逐日气象数据、实地土壤数据和大豆作物参数,采用 M － K 趋势检验法进行生育期内各气象因素的规律分析,并利用 CＲOPWAT 模型对得出的黑龙江省西部大豆各生育期内需水量、有效降雨量和灌溉需水量进行分析,同时对不同水文年型下大豆需水量和有效降雨量进行耦合度对比,制定了黑龙江省西部地区不同水文年型下的大豆灌溉制度。结果表明: 整个生育期内,月平均最高气温和最低气温显著增加,月平均风速显著下降。生育期内大豆需水量以 9. 24 mm /10 年的速率下降,变化范围为 331. 5 ～ 495. 6 mm。哈尔滨地区特枯水年、枯水年、平水年和丰水年的大豆需水量分别为 440. 6、407. 9、377. 5 和 366. 6mm; 特枯水年、枯水年和平水年的灌溉净定额分别为 122. 5、105. 8 和 65. 8 mm。在气象因素变化情况下,该地区大豆全生育期作物需水量、有效降雨量和灌溉需水量均呈减小趋势,枯水年和平水年降雨量难以满足当地大豆高产的需求,应以不同水文年为基础在大豆开花期和结荚期进行适度灌溉。     

基于灌区需水与水库兴利调度的水资源优化配置研究与应用

甘肃疏勒河灌区水资源优化决策支持系统通过对流域水资源特征、灌区需水量、水库调蓄功能以及生产力结构布局等矛盾的分析,建立了可持续发展水资源优化配置模型和多目标的目标函数、分解协调模型,可在不增减供、需水量的前提下提高水资源的配置效率,实现了节水、增产、保护生态的综合效益。     

现代水利工程信息自动化系统需求设计

为更好地推动水利信息化建设，通过梳理各类水利工程的信息自动化系统设计需求，归纳总结设计中经常出现的问题，并针对问题出现的原因提出相关建议，以供大家探讨。     

水电工程建设征地移民安置利益诉求探讨

对水电工程移民安置中地方政府、移民群众、项目业主、设计单位几个主要的利益相关方扮演的角色及主要利益诉求进行了分析,并总结出现今利益诉求的主要特点。结合对移民安置中各方利益诉求的原因分析,提出在国家能源战略布局不可改变、移民搬迁不可扭转的前提下,寻找各方利益共同点,构建水电开发利益共赢模式,并就如何构建利益共赢模式,提出了8大应对机制。     

西藏林芝地区水资源承载力研究

鉴于西藏十分脆弱的生态、环境、资源现状,文中结合西藏自治区林芝地区的实际情况,构建了能够反映区域生态、经济、环境、资源各个系统中各要素之间的相互依赖和共同发展关系的林芝地区水资源承载力研究的系统动力学数学模型,并运用了Vensim PLE软件开展了该模型对林芝地区的水资源承载力以及该地区的水资源合理开发与利用模式的系统动力学模拟。同时,参照我国经济发展水平设计了另外两种经济发展模式,对比三种方案的模拟结果可以发现:按照现有经济规划模式,在模拟期内不会出现水资源短缺问题;但现阶段经济发展模式水资源消耗明显较大,水资源消耗量高于全国水资源利用的平均水平,故该经济模式属于明显的粗放型不可持续的发展模式,亟待改进或重新开展规划。     

袁河流域水资源供需平衡与空间差异

依据袁河流域水系分布结合乡镇与水系等特点划分计算单元, 从考虑工程与不考虑工程两方面分析袁河流域水资源供需平衡的时空变化, 重点分析流域重要城镇所在单元的水资源供需平衡, 以提高流域水资源规划管理工作的实用性。结果表明: 不考虑工程的特枯年( 95% 来水频率) 流域水资源无法满足需水, 2025 年缺水率 6.7% , 2035 年缺水率 7.7% ; 考虑工程的特枯年流域缺水更加严重, 2025 年缺水率 16.6% , 2035 年缺水率 17.5% 。流域严重缺 水城镇主要集中在干流沿岸, 其中, 芦溪镇、袁州区市区、分宜镇、渝水区市区等 4 个重要城镇是流域内缺水严重地区, 年内水资源供需平衡的时间差异化明显。