从控制洪水向管理洪水转变的经济学思考

对我国的洪水管理实践进行初步概括和总结,描述了洪水管理的内涵,并从经济学角度分析了洪水管理的目标和其存在的问题;提出从控制洪水向管理洪水、经营洪水转变,进而实现资源化洪水的综合利用,以最大限度地提高水资源利用效率。     

Dam-Break Flood Emergency Management System

Natural or induced floods are of increasing concern to watermanagers and civil protection services for three main reasons.Firstly, a continuous and 'unconscious' increase of socialpressure in the flooding valleys amplifies flood vulnerabilitiesand consequently natural or induced flood risk. Secondly, thealarming forecasts of the impact of potential climate changes onwater resources, in spite of the high uncertainty associated tothese forecasts, points out to larger flood hazards. Thirdly,dam-break induced accidents may occur more frequently due toinfrastructure aging.Emergency Planning is a non-structural measure to minimise floodimpacts playing an important role in crisis management. In fact,if a disaster cannot be avoided, individual and social structurepreparedness may be of great help in risk reduction.An Internet-based system that supports flood emergencymanagement is presented in this article. This application is partof a more complete system, developed with the goal of endowingthe Portuguese water authorities, dam owners and the civilprotection system, with adequate tools to store and easilyretrieve information on dams and their downstream valleys, tomodel the flood wave induced by a dam break and, eventually, tomanage the response to flood-induced catastrophes.     

沮漳河洪水管理的思路

通过分析沮漳河流域在洪水开发、利用、管理中存在的主要问题,提出沮漳河流域洪水管理思路是转变观念,由控制洪水向洪水管理转变,实现人与水和谐相处,建立流域管理机构,给洪水以出路,洪水资源化,改善和加强生态系统的保护、建设,重视非工程措施和提高水资源的承载能力.     

洪水管理、风险评估和洪泛区区划

洪水风险评估包括洪峰、洪量、水位和洪水过程.从安全角度来看,洪水风险评估对于水电工程、防洪工程的设计和运行是十分重要的.洪水管理旨在最大限度地减少洪泛区的洪灾损失,因此根据洪水发生的量级和频率进行洪水风险评估、制作洪水风险图对于洪水管理至关重要.目前在印度采取的主要防洪措施有:进行堤坝溃决风险分析、发布洪水预警、制作洪水风险图或洪灾风险图等.根据洪灾风险评估确定不同的保险费用,并据此推行防洪保险计划,可能非常有助于洪泛区的区划工作.地形等高线图是进行洪泛区区划的前提条件.根据这些图集和洪水风险评估,洪泛区能够按照区划进行开发活动的分类管理.     

洪水保险在洪水资源管理中的应用研究

洪水保险作为洪水管理的一种重要手段越来越受到人们的重视,针对我国现行的社会制度、水利防洪工程现状、经济社会发展趋势、保险业发展概况,基于对国内外洪水保险策略的分析,应用经济学、保险学、系统工程等理论,结合洪水资源管理的基本特点,从实用的角度,对我国开展洪水保险的时机、方式、体制等方面进行研究,建立洪水保险的期望效用模型,该模型能够有效的揭示被保险者与保险者的效用属性和价值取向,具有一定的理论指导和应用价值。最后提出了适合我国国情和社会运行机制的洪水保险思路框架和若干建议。     

事件驱动的防汛应急管理模式研究

从防汛突发事件出发,根据事件属性确定事件分析网格和处置网格。在分析网格内分析事件的原因和可能造成的影响;在处置网格内分析事件涉及的部件,并制定相关部件针对该事件的具体应急措施,从而形成事件驱动的防汛应急管理模式。根据事件驱动的防汛应急管理模式,采用气象水文监测预警技术、数据库技术和WEBGIS技术,开发了北京市防汛应急管理平台,实现了事件监视、网格定位和事件处置等功能,实现了从事件出发、"由事及人"的防汛应急管理模式。     

中国防洪规划与建设

受特有的地理、气候条件影响,水旱灾害一直是中华民族的心腹之患,是对我国经济社会发展影响最大的自然灾害。新中国成立后,国家加强了现代防洪体系建设,经过60年的不断发展和完善,在工程体系、管理模式、法律法规以及防洪规划方面均取得了很大的进展。本文在总结以往防洪规划与建设经验的基础上,提出了新形势下我国防洪工作的建议。     

英国的洪水风险管理

为了减少洪水造成的破坏和损失,近年来世界各国的洪水管理已从单一的防洪工程向洪水风险管理转变。除了能进行有效的洪水防御外,洪水风险管理还被认为是维持生物多样性、河流及海岸生态系统的重要手段。回顾了英国的洪水风险管理及其组成体系,并分析讨论了未来可能面临的问题及应对措施。结果表明,随着全球气候变化及社会经济发展,洪水发生的频率及其影响正在增加。因此,如何全面综合考虑降雨、径流、河流、洪泛区以及人类活动、社会经济规划、发展和管理等诸多因素是实施洪水风险管理面临的重要课题。     

Changes of Flood Control Situations and Adjustments of Flood Management Strategies in China

Abstract

Flooding was recognized as the severest natural hazard in ancient China. Chinese people have accumulated abundant experiences in fighting against flood disasters for millennia. In the past half century, flood control capacity has improved due to the large-scale construction of a flood control engineering system, which plays an important role in ensuring the rapid socio-economic development. However, because of climatic fluctuation and human activities, significant changes to the flood control situation are taking place in China. In the new century, the flood control system has to face a series of challenges, and the flood management strategies must be adjusted accordingly.     

浅谈海河流域洪水资源利用

海河流域属于资源性缺水地区,水资源的开发利用已超出其承载能力,并导致河道断流、天然湿地萎缩、地下水超采等一系列生态环境问题。结合流域特殊的河系特点和洪水时空分布规律,通过对“96·8”典型洪水利用潜力分析,研究流域洪水资源利用的可能性,为流域充分利用洪水资源、缓解流域水资源短缺提供借鉴与启示。     

黄河洪水测报与洪水管理

黄河洪水依然是中华民族的心腹之患。黄河洪水测验、预报及洪水管理的方法、流程及解决有关问题已有了新的思路。实时在线水文测验、时间空间连续的暴雨洪水监视及预报系统正在建设之中。从抵抗防御洪水到管理洪水的转变也正在实践中,黄河水文现代化的框架正在形成。     

Integrated Catchment Management in China

Abstract

As industries develop and waste discharge increases in China, the water quality in many rivers becomes a serious issue. Although the Chinese government has taken river pollution control as the top priority in enviornmental management, pollution still occurs in many locations regularly. One of the reasons is that the policy used for pollution control in China is more or less like “cure the problems, but not take radical measures.” An integrated catchment management (ICM) approach has been implemented in Australia as a fundamental measure for resource management and water pollution control since the 1980s. The ICM approach has been proved to be an effective means for pollution control in Australia. Is it possible to use the ICM approach in China? This paper describes an investigation on the possibility by comparing the conditions for implementing ICM programs in Australia and China. It is suggested that the Australian ICM model cannot be directly used in China because of: (1) difficulty of coordinating authorities at different levels, (2) unclear ownership of resources, (3) small farming scales, and (4) poor education of resources users. However, it may be possible to implement the ICM approach in China by: (1) establishing a clear ownership system of resources (land, water, and vegetation), (2) extending the function of existing catchment management committees, (3) establishing strong acts of catchment management, and (4) establishing monitoring and audit systems for resource use andconservation. The detailed implementation procedure for China needs to be further studied.     

王村分洪闸改建工程全过程质量管理探讨

王村分洪闸是控制向文安洼分洪的重要工程。在改建过程中,从前期工作、建设施工期、运行管理初期等阶段进行了全过程质量管理。依据管理效果,分析全过程质量管理的重要作用,为其他建设工程质量管理提供参考。     

Selection of the Flood Management Solution of Karstic Field

Abstract

Water resources management in karst areas is a very complex task, especially with regard to solving the problem of floods and protection against pollution. This is also true for flood protection of Vrgorsko polje, which is the subject of this paper. Complexity of water system and socio-economic characteristics in the broader area requires integral problem solving through analyses of several alternatives with different technical and technological features as well as different socio-economic and ecological impacts. In this paper, an elaborated integral approach to problem solving is presented as well as system analyses and the procedure of multicriteria selection of an optimum solution for karstic polje flood protection. The problem was successfully solved using the procedure with two basic steps. The first step analyzed possible basic solution concepts while the second analyzed engineering solutions in compliance with the adopted concepts. The results confirm the validity of this approach, which resulted in the elaboration of a flood protection project that was acceptable for all participants in the system.     

论抵御''98洪水与洪水风险管理

1998年长江流域发生了自1954年以来又一次全流域性大洪水，嫩江和松花江流域也发生了超历史记录的特大洪水．从抵御’98洪水中得出，必须改变单纯的抵御洪水的观念，要对洪水实行全过程风险管理．进行洪水风险管理，最主要的是制定针对洪水灾害的政策．并进一步分析了蓄滞洪区的管理，应加强以下几方面的建设：（1）控制和减少人口；（2）加强安全设施建设；（3）绘制洪水风险留，建立和完善避难的预报和预警系统；（4）建设分蓄洪控制工程；（5）严格土地利用规划及管理，调整产业结构；（6）实行洪水保险制度．     

中国洪水管理战略框架和行动计划

“中国洪水管理战略研究”项目,针对中国洪水管理现状,从中国国情出发,广泛吸收和借鉴国内外洪水管理的成功经验,对洪水管理战略与对策进行了研究,并在深入调研的基础上提出了中国洪水管理战略框架和行动计划设想,以满足全社会日益提高的水安全保障需求,推进由控制洪水向洪水管理的战略性转变,逐步实现以科学发展观和风险管理理论为指导的洪水综合管理。     

三峡工程实施洪水管理体系探讨

洪水是水资源的重要组成部分,洪水资源化是洪水管理的重要内涵.在目前中国水资源严重短缺的情况下,洪水资源利用最大化尤其重要.文中依据三峡工程的任务、运用特点、上游及防洪对象的洪水特性,对工程实施洪水管理体系的必要性、可行性、实现途径进行了分析探讨.     

防洪减灾风险管理研究综述

主要对水文风险、水力风险、经济风险、风险决策和洪水保险五个方面的风险管理方法在防洪减灾中的研究现状进行归纳和评述 .其中水文风险的研究重点分为线型选择、参数估计、风险率计算三部分 ;水力风险的研究主要集中在水库泄洪风险及河道或洪泛区的洪水演进研究 ;经济风险分析主要集中在防洪费用效益的风险分析 ;风险决策研究通常表现为防洪问题的可靠性规划和多目标风险分析两种形式 ;洪水保险的研究主要是利用模拟模型来推导一个最优洪水保险策略 .文末阐述了防洪减灾风险管理的发展趋势     

Flood Hazard Assessment and Management: Interface with the Public

The understanding of how people evaluate and respond to natural hazards in an urban area, and how this knowledge can be integrated in the planning and management process, are becoming very important elements of a comprehensive and participatory approach to flood hazard management. Such an approach demands a clear comprehension of the processes of the risks perception, causal attribution, possible solutions for the problem and patterns of behaviour developed during hazard situations. The willingness of the public to participate in flood management, and the attitudes to previous initiatives also need to be addressed. The provision of structural flood defences can have a major impact on the environment and there has been an expression of concern by many members of the public for the degradation of river corridors. In this context, it is becoming a commonly accepted practice by central or local governments to submit flood management plans to public discussion. Appropriate techniques for interfacing with the public are necessary to support this upsurge of public involvement. This paper presents results from research on public perception of floods, flood management and participatory initiatives in Setúbal, Portugal. An extensive interview programme was undertaken with residents and shopkeepers – with and without flood experience, professionals responsible for dealing with flood control problems and local authorities responsible for decision-making on flood management. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for flood hazard management policy making and processes.     

防洪调度及水资源管理数据挖掘系统研究

采用美国SAS数据挖掘软件,在对我国防洪调度及水资源管理需求详尽分析的基础上,探索了数据挖掘技术在防洪调度及水资源管理方面的应用理论、方法及技术;研究了商品化数据挖掘软件与防洪调度及水资源管理需求相结合的具体方法,建立了太湖流域和中央节点的防洪调度和水资源管理数据仓库系统;分析研究了数据应用的基本模式,提出了数据挖掘的主题,运用SAS数据挖掘套件建立了基于数据仓库的防洪调度及水资源管理数据挖掘系统。