南京市居民生活用水需求弹性分析

现阐述了南京居民生活需水量与水价、居民收入三者之间的关系；通过对数据处理建立水需求模型，计算出需水量与价格及收入的定量关系，分析了提高水价对水资源需求量的抑制作用。最后得出结论，在市民可以承受的价格范围内可适当提高水价来缓解水资源供需矛盾，提高用水效率。对需求的价格弹性的定量分析，是客观反映价格的重要方法，为确定合理的生活水价提供重要的参考依据。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability and Agricultural Water Demand in the West Bank

Global climate change is predicted as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It is predicted that climate change will result in increasing temperature by 2 to 6°C and a possible reduction of precipitation of up to 16% in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, the West Bank is taken as a case study from the Mediterranean basin to evaluate the effects of such climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demands. Due to the uncertainty in climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, a number of scenarios for these impacts were assumed within the range of predicted changes. For temperature, three scenarios of 2, 4 and 6°C increase were assumed. For precipitation, two scenarios of no change and 16% precipitation reduction were assumed. Based on these scenarios, monthly evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation excess depths were estimated at seven weather stations distributed over the different climatic and geographical areas of the West Bank. GIS spatial analyses showed that the increase in temperature predicted by climate change could potentially increase agricultural water demands by up to 17% and could also result in reducing annual groundwater recharge by up to 21% of existing values. However, the effects of reduced precipitation resulting from climate change are more enormous as a 16% reduction in precipitation could result in reducing annual groundwater recharge in the West Bank by about 30% of existing value. When this effect is combined with a 6°C increase in temperature, the reduction in groundwater recharge could reach 50%.     

Decision-Support System for Domestic Water Demand Forecasting and Management

A decision support system (DFMS) for forecastingdomestic water demand including demand management was developedas part of a highly integrated decision-support system forriver-basin management. The system provides water resourcesplanners with the facilities for estimating future water demandfor domestic use for any demand region and time period, havingregard, to the possibility of introducing demand managementmeasures. The system has the capability of predicting domestic-water demand by various methods according to data availability.It can compute conservation effectiveness due to theimplementation of various demand-management measures,forecasting the number of customers for different consumptionunits (person, household and water connection) and facilitatingthe development of demand-scenarios for evaluating variousoptions. In general, the system comprises of the followingcomponents: (1) geographic information system, (2) databasemanagement system, (3) expert system, (4) multi-decisioncomponent, (5) prediction models, (6) user-interface, (7) hypertext files. The system has been tested and demonstratedusing the data of Swindon demand zone of Thames Water Utility.     

阶梯式计量水价在城市居民生活用水需求管理中的应用

基于计量经济模型,以北京市为例分析了水价对城市居民生活用水需求的影响,并进一步探讨了阶梯式计量水价在城市居民生活用水需求管理中的应用。     

水资源需求管理研究分析与实施建议

城市水资源管理工作重点必须从现有的以开发水资源为重点的供给管理转向以管理水资源为重点的需求管理,从可持续发展的角度来管理、规划、合理使用水资源。文章系统分析了水资源需求管理研究和实施中存在的诸多问题,对我国水资源需求管理现状及面临问题进行了归纳,给出了＂大＂水需求管理定义和措施分类方法,总结了重点研究方向的研究进展。最后针对存在问题,给出了我国水需求管理实施机理,以及政府管理、经济措施、技术支持、科学研究等4方面的实施对策。     

城市需水预测模型研究

需水量预测是供水决策,水利投资数额的重要参考指数,在水资源规划与管理中起着重要的作用。针对现有需水量预测方法存在局限性等问题,结合经济社会发展状况和水资源的特点,建立了城市需水预测模型。该模型能够较好地体现出社会经济、生态、环境和水资源各个系统之间的复杂关系。     

Transboundary Groundwater Resources of the West Bank

The political boundaries between the Palestinian and Israelismake the water issues critical and sensitive. Groundwater is theprimary source for the Palestinian in the West Bank. Although, there are many studies on the shared surface resources (Jordan River Basin), there are few studies on the groundwater shared resources between the Palestinians and Israelis.There are three primary groundwater basins underlying the West Bank (Eastern, Northeastern and Western Basins) as shown in Figure 1. Both the Northeastern and Western basins are shared between Israelis and Palestinians. The Palestinians have a limited access to the Northeastern Basin and strictly limited access to the Western Basin. In addition to the quantity of available water resources, thequality of water is emerging as a critical issue. Threats to ground water quality include disposal of untreated wastewater, increasing salinity due to agricultural activities and intrusion of native groundwater of poor quality. Widespread use of herbicides and pesticides also represent a threat to drinking water supplies.The Declaration of Principles, signed in Washington D.C in 1993,was a major step toward resolution of the political conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. However, the water issue is part of the final status negotiations, which still unresolved.As resolution to political conflict is pursued, it is clear that water resources management issues remain at the forefront becauseof the transboundary nature of the hydrologic regime. Cooperative management on the technical level appears to be the only alternative to further conflict and degradation of the region's scare water resources. This article will study the impact of the transboundary resources on both sides and explore some of the most significant groundwater management issues facing both the Palestinians and Israelis.     

Global Water Demand and Supply Projections

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling approach for projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation at the basin or country level in a global scope. Particular emphasis is put on simulating water availability for crops taking into account total renewable water, non-irrigation water demand, water supply infrastructure, and economic and environmental policies at the basin or country level. This paper focuses on concepts and methodology involved in the modeling exercise. Data assessment and results are presented in a companion paper (Rosegrant and Cai, 2002).     

A Stochastic Model for Representing Drinking Water Demand at Residential Level

In this study, attention is initially focussed on modelling finely sampled (1 min) residential water demand time series. Subsequently, the possibility of simulating the water demand time series relevant to different time intervals and many users is analysed by using an aggregation approach. A cluster Neyman-Scott stochastic process (NSRP) is proposed to represent the residential water demand and a parameterisation procedureis implemented to respect the cyclical behaviour usually observed in any working day. A validation is performed on the basis of the one-minute datacollected on the water distribution system of Castelfranco Emilia located in the province of Modena (I). The elaborations performed show the validity both of the NSRP model and the parameterisation procedure proposedto represent the residential demand with fine time intervals (up to 5–10 min). On the other hand, when a procedure of aggregation is applied to represent the water demand of a high number of users, the results are nolonger satisfactory since only the mean is preserved while the other statistics, and in particular the variance, are underestimated.     

黄土高原世行贷款项目谱写水土保持工作新篇章

我国政府首次利用国际金融机构贷款实施黄土高原水土保持世界银行贷款项目,自1991年以来,已成功地完成了两期项目建设任务,在国家有关部委和世行的大力支持下,经过各级项目机构和项目区广大农民的不懈努力,不仅取得了显著的经济、生态和社会效益,被评为世行项目的"旗帜工程",并获得世行项目杰出成就行长奖,而且通过项目实施培养了一大批项目管理人才,提高了管理水平,有效地推动了我国水土保持工作规范化进程.     

需求侧水资源配置管理模式

随着经济发展及城市化水平的不断提高,社会对水资源的需求量大幅度增加,供需矛盾日益突出。通过需求侧管理(DSM)模式的全面分析,探讨将需求侧管理模式最小和费用最有效原则和综合资源规划(IRP)引入水资源管理,加强水资源需求侧管理,控制需求增长,将有利于水资源需求和供应相适应,实现水资源的可持续利用。     

城市需水量预测方法及应用研究——以哈尔滨需水量预测为例

通过几种常用需水量预测方法的分析研究,根据其各自特点得出在城市规划中通常采用人均综合用水量指标法、分类用水指标法和年增长率法进行需水量预测。并以哈尔滨需水量预测为例说明各种预测方法的应用,为其它城市进行城市需水量预测时提供参考。     

Synthetic Unit Hydrograph for Al Fara'a Catchment in the West Bank

Abstract

Synthetic unit hydrographs are frequently used to estimate hydrograph characteristics when observed data are not available. A number of synthetic unit hydrograph approaches are available, but the ones that found widespread use are those based on models of Snyder, Clark, and the U.S. Soil Conservation Services (SCS). The major goal of the study is to develop a synthetic unit hydrograph for Wadi Al Fara'a Catchment, which is un-gauged and considered one of the West Bank's most important catchments. Unfortunately, none of the wadis in the West Bank are gauged and flow records are not available; therefore, it is hoped that this method will be applied successfully for Wadi Al Fara'a catchment and the results can hopefully to be applied to all West Bank catchments, which will facilitate estimation of potential runoff in the whole West Bank.     

集对分析聚类预测法在城市生活需水量预测中的应用

集对分析聚类预测法结合了集对分析中的同异反模式识别的"择近原则"和聚类分析的基本思想进行分类预测。基于该方法给出了城市生活需水量的详细方法预测,在分析过程中考虑了城市生活需水量与其影响因素之间的关系,利用城市生活用水总量和影响因素的历史数据,建立了城市生活需水量聚类预测的模型,并利用我国北京市的实际数据进行了分析计算。结果表明,该预测方法应用于城市生活需水量预测思路清晰,计算简单且精度较高,该预测方法具有较高的实用价值。     

南水北调西线工程方案优化

通过收集调研大量水文、地质、水资源、工程技术资料, 在现有研究基础上论述西线工程方案优化, 提出工程研 究面临的主要问题; 利用多指标比对法, 从西线工程调水断面下移自流方案和抽水方案入手, 通过调水河流可调水 量、环境影响、移民范围、投资费用和经济效益等指标探讨方案的优劣, 论证工程下移自流方案的可行性与优越性。 同时, 为减轻调水对生态、环境、社会等方面的影响, 分析并拟定金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河多年平均年调水总量为 170 亿 m3。研究成果可为未来工程建设决策提供重要技术依据。     

深化水价改革 解决杭州市用水矛盾

城市缺水将制约城市的发展,通过研究水价改革的几个相关问题,为杭州市有关决策部门制定合理水价改革方案以解决城市用水矛盾提供参考。     

关于缓解北方地区水供需矛盾方略的认识

缓解北方地区水供需矛盾要从社会,经济活动方式与资源条件协调来考虑,同时要提高人们对节水的认识,建立节约用水,提高用水效率的有效机制,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划的建议》提出,要“要采取多种方式缓解北方地区缺水矛盾,加紧南水北调工程的前期工作,尽早开发建设”,是非常及时的,正确的,但南水北调工程中的许多问题仍然值得认真研究。     

农业节水首先要合理调控利用当地水资源

我国灌区妈水的利用率低，水浪费严重，这是农业节水主要潜力之所在。灌区应以开发利用浅层地下水为基础，引地表水作补充，采取井渠结合地表水地下水联合运用的灌溉方式，合理调控利用当地水资源。在靠井灌溉没有渠灌水源的地区，要拦蓄降雨径流及汛后河水回补地下源。在有条件开发地下水的河水灌区，要井渠并用，优化调度水资源。在灌溉管理上，要按农业用水量控制灌溉水量。建议按流域和灌区工发利用和管理水资源，在河水灌区积极     

论生态需水问题的复杂性

生态系统具有高度的开放性,其影响因子之间存在着复杂的非线性耦合关系,这种关系是生态系统产生复杂性的根源。生态系统除具有复杂性系统所共有的非线性、多样性、多层性、多变性、整体性、统计性、不可逆性、自组织性与临界性等特征外,在空间、时间、影响因子和功能等方面也具有复杂性。生态系统的复杂性导致了生态需水问题的复杂性,研究生态需水必须首先了解生态系统的复杂性。生态需水的复杂性特征表明:很难用一个简单通用的生态需水公式说明生态需水,用统计学方法研究生态需水可能更好;生态需水背景值研究、生态需水标准体系研究、生态需水模型研究应该是生态需水研究的重要内容。     

青岛市工业需水量预测研究

随着工业的快速发展,工业需水量与日俱增,工业需水量的合理预测已成为城市供水和水资源规划极其重要的部分。以青岛市为研究对象,对其工业需水量进行了预测研究,预测方法采用灰色预测理论。根据灰色预测理论预测青岛市工业发展;对青岛市实际情况进行分析,确定其未来的需水定额;采用定额法得出青岛市未来年份的工业需水量。