Impacts of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Water Supply and Demand in Jordan

Abstract

The potential impact of global climate change is one of the least addressed factors in water resources planning in developing countries. The potential impacts of climate change are examined for Jordan, where a methodology is presented for improved management of water demand under the uncertainties associated with climate change. A temperature/precipitation sensitivity model is constructed and combined with water demand forecasts to project deficits for the year 2020. Deficit reducing options are then evaluated in terms of social and economic viability. The study concludes that only some of the deficits may be alleviated, illustrating the significance of considering climate change in planning for countries that already experience water imbalances.     

Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 167 m³ per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the levels of aquifers and the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial, and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with oasis wetlands having been most seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US$4 to $5 per cubic meter. This paper examines four integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with concerned stakeholders to assure future water supplies.     

Economic Benefits of Reservoirs in the Irrigated Agriculture

Abstract

In the Jordan Valley of Jordan, the demand for water and ability to control its location, timing, quality, and quantity are becoming critical. The competition for water between the urban and agricultural sectors is increasing. There is a general trend in Jordan to reduce water allocated for agricultural use. Increasing the price of irrigation water or restricting the planted areas of water consuming crops, such as bananas, has been implemented during the recent growing season. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the impact of optimal allocation of irrigation water by building storage capacity on the economy of Jordan Valley. A linear programming technique is used, and the main results show that for proper management of water storage capacity, the suggested cropping pattern would generate $88.2 million, whereas the actual cropping pattern generated $74.4 million. The optimal water demand schedule is distributed according to the needs of the planted crops, and water demand has been allocated in an efficient way. In addition, appropriate management of storage capacity has solved the problem of water scarcity during the summer months, when peak production takes place. Storage-transfer system between locations played a significant role in reallocating irrigation water through the storage system. This compensates to a high degree in keeping the agricultural production more stable in physical and monetary units.     

The Jordan River Basin: 2. Potential Future Allocations to the Co-riparians

Abstract

The Jordan River drains parts of four States and one territory (Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Jordan and Palestine), and is an important regional source of water. A previous paper in this series discussed the flow allocations from the Jordan River to the co-riparians which were proposed in the Johnston Plan of 1955, noting that recently declassified documents shed new light on the allocation proposed for Israel. The present paper discusses potential future allocations of water from the Jordan River basin to the co-riparians, providing alternative methods of calculating these using basic principles which are considered to generally reflect customary international water law. It is concluded that whilst certain of the downstream co-riparians are undoubtedly “water-stressed” an acceptable solution to the allocation of water within the region is attainable. However, this will depend on coupling the allocation of the existing resources to the strategic development of additional fresh water resources in the region, which will also encourage the joint management of the resulting system.     

Statistical Domestic Water Demand Model for the West Bank

Abstract

The water balance in the West Bank shows a severe deficit. Scenarios and strategies are formulated in order to overcome the deficit problem. These include options for better management of the existing water resources and the enhancement of new resources. This paper focuses on demand modeling as one of the key issues for effective water management. Although past literature about demand modeling is comparatively rich for different regions in the world, this research provides a unique study, due to the past political situation in the Middle East, for water demand modeling in the West Bank. The developed statistical domestic water demand model will assess the factors which influence domestic water use, and determine the parameters that may help in demand management. Rammallah City is used as a case study to illustrate the proposed framework of the analysis. The developed model indicates that water utility authorities can use price as a tool to ration water or encourage reduced water consumption in households.     

Discussion of the paper entitled “Ethiopian Interests in the Division of the Nile River Waters”[l]

ABSTRACT

It is argued that the establishment of tradable water rights will play an important role in increasing productivity and sustainability of water use in developing countries. Due to economic growth, scarcity is expected to be conducive to water market development. This article presents the potential for and feasibility of markets in water rights in Jordan through a comparative study of Chile, Mexico, and California. Many lessons were learned from the experiences of those countries concerning water markets. The transformation of these lessons to the Jordanian context is faced with some fundamental challenges in terms of water legislation, institutional structure, and data. Water legislation must deal with externalities, dispute, and third-party effect. Adopting a new water act and review of water laws is essential for better water resources management and assured public input and feedback. Market oriented policy should be introduced only on a pilot basis in terms of pricing. Policy makers believe that dealing with future water scarcity in Jordan will be achieved through better management and utilization of water using both conventional and nonconventional sources. Moreover; policy makers and farmers in Jordan expressed strong reservations on intersectoral water transfers because of the importance of water to the Jordanian economy.     

An Investigation into the Use of Water by Portuguese Industry

ABSTRACT

The continuous increase in water demand for various uses underlines the importance of supply problems in the general context of water resources management.

In this domain it would clearly be useful to collect and make available all the data currently stored on different paper supports and kept by several regional agencies. This would provide an immediate overview of tbe resources, and also permit forecasting the future demand for tbe various utilizations.

This paper describes a project involving a database to be used for groundwater resources management, conceived not only as a support for research activity, but also as a contribution to developing new and more efficient managementprocedures. The database has been designed to be used on a personal computer, with software readily available on the market.     

Towards Sustainable Management of Scarce Water Resources in Botswana

Abstract

Proper management of scarce water resources has in recent years become necessary to maintain sustainable societies. This article discusses the management of water resources in Botswana. It highlights the amount of water resources available, relating it to the demand, and observes that the current trend of exploiting these resources will not be sustainable in the long run unless the major strategies suggested herein are adopted. It also looks at the administration of water and water resources in Botswana, focusing on the shared water resources. Government policies and strategies towards sustainable management of scarce water resources are also discussed. The author draws particular attention to the water tariff structure, noting that the prevailing water tariff system promotes sustainable management of water resources.     

Application of Expert and Decision Support Systems for Optimizing Water Supply in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Expert System (ES) and Decision Support System (DSS) are becoming essential tools that support decision makers, professionals, and managers in their efforts to operate, control, and develop decisions on a sound and integrated basis. Applications of ES and DSS are not limited to a certain sector or field, but are typically used in sectors that involve management and planning. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the application of these systems in Jordan and specifically in managing and operating the water demand and supply of the main water carrier in the Jordan Valley, the King Abdullah Canal (KAC). This canal extends from the upper part of the valley at Adasiya down to the Dead Sea with a total length of 110 km connecting one of the most complicated irrigation and conveyance systems in the region. At present, the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA), which is responsible for all the activities in the Jordan Valley, is operating and managing the water of KAC using the JVA Water Management Information System (WMIS) and JVA Hydraulic Model. After five years of implementing this management system, there was enough information to analyze and evaluate it as well as to determine the areas of shortcomings. This paper focuses on analyzing these results and providing the necessary recommendations. These recommendations are in the form of software and hardware that will improve using both the Expert System and Knowledge Base System and make it a successful model of water optimization for the country and region.     

Water Resources Management under Competitive Sectoral Demand A Case Study from Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is a country plagued with water scarcity. The annual per capita share of water is currently estimated at 170 m³ and the figure is expected to drop to 90 m³ in the year 2020 as a result of the disproportional increase in population relative to water resources development. Moreover, about 70 percent of the country's water resources are consumed in irrigated agriculture. For most crops growing in all areas and seasons and managed with different production technologies, analysis of net return from unit volume of irrigation water showed, with few exceptions, low values pertaining to production under protected agriculture. Such a result indicated unjustified waste of water in the agricultural sector at the expense of the domestic sector. This paper reviews current challenges facing water management in the country and proposes short- and long-term alternative solutions.     

Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities

Abstract

Water is one of the most important inputs for economic development. As the demand increases, so too does the importance of water. This is clearly the case in Egypt, where rainfall is rare and the governmentally enforced quota for withdrawal from the Nile River has not changed since 1959. The water demand has multiplied as a result of population growth, agricultural expansion, as well as industrial development and a rise in the standard of living. In this paper, a vision for the future water status in Egypt is presented. This vision is based on a perception of the current status of the available water resources. The water uses, the water use efficiency, the institutional and legislative frameworks of water management, and the strategies and policies to rationalize water use and to augment water supply are discussed. The local, regional and international governing and controlling factors of water utilization and management in Egypt are also analyzed and discussed. Three future water scenarios for year 2020, each reflecting alternate programs to develop the water systems and to rationalize the water uses, are presented. All scenarios showed that Egypt will suffer considerable water shortages in the near future. Recommendations to help overcome anticipated water challenges and to optimize the available opportunities are provided.     

Multicriteria Analysis For Water Productivity in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Multiple variables associated with agricultural sector, including crop water consumption, salinity tolerance, marketing, evapotranspiration and other factors related to industrial sector, were incorporated into a multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The MCA utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which resulted in the prioritization of water use for management in the Jordan Valley. The inputs to the MCA were generated through metrological variables for the Jordan Valley for the period 1980 to 1999. Soil data and crop data were evaluated using the EVAPOT program, the KCISA program, and the ISAREG model to estimate reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficiency, crop water requirement, and calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the MCA make recommendations for enhancing long-term sustainability of water resources in the Jordan Valley, while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. The MCA ranked the date palm as the highest priority crop with respect to the goal of sustainable agricultural use of water. Apparel manufacturing was the most sustainable industry. Overall, the industrial sector seems to perform better with regards to water productivity than the agricultural sector. It can be concluded that the MCA tool and ISAREG model are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision- making for selection and ranking of alternatives for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria.     

Integrated Assessment of Water Resources Potential in the North China Region

Abstract

Potential assessment of water resources development (PAWRD) is very important for regional water management, water allocation, water transfer, and economic planning, especially for today's China, which is under a rapid economic growth, a continued expansion of population, and an increasingly deteriorating eco-environment. In this work, the southern part of Hathe River (SPHR) is selected as the representative area of the North China Region for a case study based on considerations such as available data, geographic characteristics, administrative boundaries, and the state of water shortage. A growth pattern of regional water resources development is presented. A fuzzy assessment model is established and applied to determine the growth stage, an indicator for water resources development potential. Seven assessment factors, selected based on the conditions of supply, demand, and use efficiency of water subjected to the regional physical, social, and economic settings, include irrigation rate of arable land, exploitation rate of water resources, the water-saving level, a water supply and demand modulus, the water supply per capita, and the ratio of eco-environmental water use. These factors are integrated into the fuzzy assessment model, which is shown to be capable and effective for potential assessment. The assessment results demonstrate the potential of water resources development is little in SPHR and are substantiated by the necessity of the middle route of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in the long run. It is also suggested at present that promoting water saving and strengthening water demand controls would be the most feasible and effective solution to mitigate water shortage stress of SPHR before the SNWT scheme is implemented. PAWRD provides a scientific tool for water-demand management and water-saving improvement, as well as a necessary basis for decision-making for economy planning and water transfer design.     

Over-exploitation of groundwater resources and their environmental and socio-economic implications: the case of Jordan

Jordan is overusing its groundwater resources stocks. The present impacts on the groundwater itself are manifested in the drop in groundwater levels, reduction in or ceasing of spring discharges, saltwater intrusions and deteriorating water quality. The socio-economic impacts are results of reduced water quality and quantity. The negative impacts, both on the groundwater resources as such, and on socio-economics are expected to intensify with the passage of time. Rethinking in the management of the water sector has become very essential and radical changes towards a balanced resources/demand equation have become inevitable for a continual yield of water resources to guarantee future generations equity in these resources.     

The Role of Desalination in Meeting Water Supply Demands in Western Asia

Abstract

The increasing gap between the supply and demand for water in the Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia (ESCWA) member countries: Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen) can be attributed to the limited availability of surface water, mining of fossil groundwater sources, and water pollution mainly of shallow aquifers, deficient institutional structure, poor management processes, and inapt allocation of financial resources. The non-sustainable use of natural water resources to meet the escalating water demand has also contributed to the depletion and deterioration of water quality and quantity. To meet water supply shortages in the domestic sector, water desalination has been entrenched as a viable option for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes the following countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. The objective of the paper is to investigate the role of water desalination in meeting the water demands in the ESCWA member countries. The significant role of desalination is highlighted with emphasis in evaluating not only its production trends, processes, and costs, but also its capacity in the provision of water demands. Water desalination has become a major and staunch water source for a number of large urban centers. For such countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar and the coastal zone areas of Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, desalination represents one of the most feasible and strategic alternative options for their current and future domestic water supply requirement. Given the high consumption rate from this source and its high production cost, fundamental efforts must be integrated and invested in both research and development programs to implement comprehensive conservation measures that would lead to a reduction in the consumption rates. Parallel to these achievements, efforts should be directed within the context of integrated management of water resources, to identify alternative potential water resources, to meet future water challenges.     

Economic Value of Tree Fruit Production in Jordan Valley from a Virtual Water Perspective

The continuous high demand of water resources for agricultural uses in Jordan is leading to a water crisis. A possible partial solution may be to import food which requires large amounts of water to grow instead of cultivating high water consuming crops. Crops such as banana and citrus cause a huge virtual water loss, which can be reduced by cultivating other less water-demanding crops. This paper focuses on analyzing the economic value of cultivating tree fruit from a virtual water perspective. The virtual water calculations in this study depend on the average rainfall, water quota, and the crops’ water requirements (CWR). The gross profit to the water use ratio showed that banana has the lowest value 0.085 JD/m³, while lemon has the highest value 1.65 JD/m³. The calculations show that the average embedded water in fruits varies from about 470 m³/ton for grapes to about 2,500 m³/ton for dates. Banana and citrus plantations consume about 21 and 71 million cubic meters (MCM) annually, respectively, which represent about 85% of the total water consumption in fruit tree plantation. The virtual water flow estimation embedded in fruits shows that Jordan imports about 77 MCM per year. However it exports about 29 MCM per year. The results were analyzed from an integrated water resources management (IWRM) perspective. The analysis shows that a way to recover some of the water costs involved in, e.g., banana production would be to increase the fertilizer cost by about 10%. This would double the water cost and increase the banana production cost by about 6.8%. Using this alternative could be a way to better manage the huge losses in virtual water involved in banana production in the Jordan Valley.     

Application of Decision Support System for Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Azraq Basin—Jordan

Abstract

Water scarcity in Jordan is a significant constraint to development, with limited available water and financial resources. As population and economic activity increase, it will be necessary to implement national strategies that seek to balance the present needs and those of future generations. Multiple variables associated with agricultural crops, industries, and the impact of climate change, were incorporated into a Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which resulted in the prioritization of sustainable water policies for management in the Azraq Basin. The inputs to the DSS were generated through application of Modflow (groundwater), stochastic, and Penman Montieth models and through calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the DSS make recommendations as to how to enhance long-term sustainability of water resources in Azraq, while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. It is recommended for future planning that further research of the impacts to water resources must be conducted at local and national levels and linked to regional and global climate change prediction. It can be concluded that the DSS tool and AHP are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision- making for selection and ranking of alternatives and policies and for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria.     

Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Management of Water Resources: 2. Case Studies

ABSTRACT

The new ethic of sustainable development extends the main principles of water resources management. Computer-based decision support systems are explored in order to identify their role in the implementation of these principles into water resource management practice. The first part of this research (see the previous article in this issue) has demonstrated that sustainable development is a global concept that needs to be made reality in any component of every decision support system to be developed for successful management of water resources. This article presents four successful case studies of decision support systems (DSSs) for sustainable management of water resources. Development of a DSS for sustainable water resource management is seen as a process, and while the issues covered in these four examples are the priorities in their respective domains, it is certain that new issues will emerge in different fields of application. So, what is presented here is thus a snapshot of current best efforts     

Hydrological Modeling of Zarqa River Basin – Jordan Using the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) Model

Jordan is an arid country with limited water resources, so there is a chronic need to study and understand its hydrology at the watershed scale which will eventually help in achieving good management for the existing scarce water resources. The studied watershed was the Zarqa River Basin which is considered as the largest watershed in Jordan. The objective of this study was to calibrate the hydrological component of the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model for the Zarqa River Basin. The calibrated model could be used in a later stage to examine the impact of different management practices and climate change scenarios on the water resources in the basin. The calibration of the HSPF water quantity parameters was aided by GIS and by the automatic calibration model (PEST). The automatic calibration was done for the years 1988–1991 and the validation was done for the years 1996–1998. The coefficient of determination, R ² for the calibration and verification years of the monthly flows was 0.81 and 0.76, respectively.     

Groundwater Protection and Management Strategy in Jordan

Groundwater resources are essential in Jordan that require careful planning and management in order to sustain human socio-economic development and various ecosystems. However these vital resources are under the threat of degradation by both mismanagement and over-exploitation that leads to contamination and decline of water levels. A new by-law, which specifically addresses pollution prevention and protection of water resources used for domestic purposes through appropriate land use restriction and zoning, is currently under preparation in Jordan. This law (i.e., Groundwater Management Policy) addresses the management of groundwater resources including development, protection, management, and reducing abstraction for each renewable aquifer to the sustainable rate (i.e., safe yield). Groundwater vulnerability mapping and delineation of groundwater protection zones were implemented in different areas in Jordan in cooperation between the German Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) company and Ministry of Water and Irrigation. This paper presents the status of groundwater resources in Jordan and their major issues. It attempts to discuss the groundwater vulnerability and protection strategy and the impacts of over-exploitation on the groundwater aquifers in an integrated water resources management perspective.