El Niño–Southern Oscillation Link to South Florida Hydrology and Water Management Applications

This study evaluates the relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and South Florida hydrology and proposes applications to water management decision making. ENSO relations to the Upper Kissimmee Basin rainfall, watershed for Lake Okeechobee, and cumulative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at Niño 3.4 were evaluated. Additionally, relationship between ENSO and Lake Okeechobee inflows, Arbuckle Creek and Josephine Creek flows were analyzed. Hydrology of the northern watersheds of the South Florida water management system is linked to ENSO events. Dry season (November–May) rainfall and flows are higher than average during El Niño years and lower during La Niña years, at the 90% confidence level or higher. The relationship is strongest when the ENSO event is strong as shown with analysis of correlation. ENSO prediction has more certainty than hydrologic prediction for a region. Identifying ENSO and hydrologic relationships can aid water management decision making by providing a lead-time of months to mitigate drought or flood impacts. The ENSO tracking method, which was published in a previous study, is presented to track ENSO strength and event type to provide supplemental outlook on dry season rainfall for Lake Okeechobee operations. Lake Okeechobee, which is the main storage in the South Florida water management system, is regulated by a schedule with a limited band of stage fluctuation because of susceptibility of the Herbert Hoover Dike to wave erosion and seepage at high stages. An early decision making approach to storage management with respect to ENSO related hydrology, is presented based on tracking the strength of ENSO events.     

Impact of El Niño and Climate Change on Rainwater Harvesting in a Caribbean State

The water situation of the Pusey district in St Catherine parish of Jamaica is acute because of the district’s hilly terrains which made connections to centralised public water supply difficult. Residents depend on rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems to meet potable needs, like many other catchments across Jamaica. Rainwater collecting practices and water use habits of the residents were surveyed and the present and future RWH capacity was evaluated using the available 18 years (1996 to 2013) rainfall data and downscaled PRECIS model A2 and B2 climate change scenarios. In addition, the effect of El Niño episodes on rainfall patterns was evaluated. The coefficients of variations for annual rainfall were found to be higher for the El Niño years than in normal years. In two of the El Niño years (1997 and 2009), rainwater harvesting capacity is negatively impacted as rainfall annual total is (42 % and 34 %) lesser than the average annual rainfall. The ability of RWH to meet potable needs in 2030s and 2050s will be reduced based on predicted shorter intense showers and frequent dry spells. A storage tank of 2.5 to 4.0 m³ per household (4 persons) is proposed to meet water demand during the maximum consecutive dry days, and January and February water shortage periods. Design of efficient RWH systems and provision of government subsidy on storage tanks will enable the residents to capture more rainwater to meet their daily domestic needs.     

Combined Effects of Solar Activity and El Niño on Hydrologic Patterns in the Yoshino River Basin,Japan

Relatively little is known about the combined effects of solar activity and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on both surface and subsurface hydrologic patterns, especially in Japan. Analyses of hydrologic responses to solar activity and ENSO could provide scientific guidance on regional water resource management. In this work, annual and decadal variations of hydrological processes (precipitation, river discharge, groundwater level) in Yoshino River basin and their possible interactions with solar activity and ENSO were analyzed using wavelet techniques. Results show the following: (1) The hydrological processes mainly fluctuate in the periodicities of 0.5, 1, 2–7 and 11 years. Strong cross power and high coherence between hydrological variability and sunspot number/Sea Surface Temperature (SST) were obtained in the periodicities of 2–7 and 11 years, indicating potential influence of solar and El Niño activities on hydrological patterns. (2) The solar–modulated ENSO plays a critical linkage between solar activity and hydrological processes. The ENSO transferred the solar energy to the local precipitation in the 22-year band; the influence was transferred by ENSO to streamflow in the periodicities of 7 and 11 years; and the linkage did not function in the SUN–ENSO–aquifer interaction system. (3) The precipitation, river discharge and aquifer water level show different responses to solar activity and ENSO. Solar activity and ENSO propagate both direct and indirect impacts on hydrological processes in different spatial and temporal domains.     

Analysis of the El Niño Effect on the Discharge of Selected Rivers in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

Discharge records originating from 78 rivers within the Asia-Pacific region are used to assess a possible relationship between a temporal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index and regional discharges of rivers. The rivers selected have long monthly discharge series and are geographically distributed throughout the whole region. Analyses of variance are used to identify the sub-regions most teleconnected to the ENSO signal. Composite analyses show the temporal patterns of the relationships between river discharge and the ENSO signal and the possible presence of a time lagged relationship. The analyses show that the rivers of the Oceania-Pacific region are the most affected and that a majority of rivers show a similar temporal pattern, thus allowing the construction of a regional composite streamflow index. The temporal patterns of the identified relationships demonstrate the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of abnormally high or low flows (floods/droughts) months ahead of time.     

Precipitation Analysis and the Influence of the El Niño Phenomenon on the Transboundary Basin of the Madeira River

The current paper aims at analyzing the behavior of monthly precipitation in the Brazilian and Bolivian parts of the basin of the Madeira river, one of the most important sub-basins of the Amazon basin. Both parts account for 93 % of its total, and studies on this topic are lacking. The research was based on data from 41 rainfall stations considering a historic series from 1978 to 1998, which encompasses two of the largest El Niño events (1982–1983 and 1997–1998), hence its influence on the precipitation of the region was assessed as well. To study precipitation behavior, rainfall was regionalized using data clustering methods (Ward and K-means), with the basin being divided into five regions of homogeneous rainfall. Both methods were applied to the regions and showed similar results, providing a higher reliability for the clusters obtained. The results of the analysis show the homogeneous regions of the basin, the spatial variability of precipitation, seasonality and the influence of the phenomenon on the region.     

Towards Adaptation to Climate Change: Water for Rice in the Coastal Wetlands of Doñana,Southern Spain

Rice production in coastal wetlands provides critical ecosystem services that range from flood control to wildlife habitat. In the Iberian Peninsula rice was introduced in the 10th Century. Today Iberian rice accounts for about one quarter of the total rice production of the European Union, almost exclusively cultivated in the coastal wetlands of Spain, with permanent flooding. The intensive water management required to produce rice stands at a crucial point since freshwater supply is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Here we explore flexible adaptation options to climate change in the Doñana wetlands - a world heritage and biodiversity site - from two points of view: What are the policy options for agricultural water management in view of climate change? How can informed stakeholders contribute to better adaptation? The first question is addressed by simulating water availability to farmers with the WAAPA model under a range of adaptation policy options derived from the view of the local communities. The second question was addressed by means of participatory research. Adaptation options are framed according to the local environmental, social and policy context. Results suggest that perception on the potential role of new water infrastructure and farming subsidies dominates the view of local communities. The choices of the stakeholders that could be simulated with the hydrological model, were quantified in terms of additional water availability for the rice farming, therefore providing a quantitative measure to the qualitative solutions. Information provided during the study shaped the final adaptation options developed. Our research contributes to the definition of sustainable rice production in Europe.     

How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?

The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.     

Nouns and Numbers of the Water–Energy–Security Nexus in Central Asia

Water, energy, and security form a complicated nexus in Central Asia, where domestic, regional, and international interests intertwine in numerous ways. A relatively large amount of literature exists on these three issues, either separately or in different combinations, yet it is difficult to see how the three intertwine and what their macro-level impacts might be on sustainable development, security, and the five Central Asian countries. This paper aims to understand what constitutes the water–energy–security nexus in Central Asia on the basis of definitions, indicators, and data. The nexus is also examined in the context of the broader global political economy, and gaps in current knowledge and suggestions for future research are pointed out.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation and Dryness/Wetness During 1961–2008 in Sichuan Province,West China

Changes in precipitation exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In order to explore the changing patterns of precipitation in Sichuan province in west China during 1961–2008, several precipitation related indices were analysed by the Mann–Kendall test. For monthly precipitation, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, March and June, while significant decreasing trends mostly are observed during July, September and October. Most of extreme precipitation indices are decreasing. Especially the annual total precipitation in wet days and maximum number of consecutive wet days show significant negative trends. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variation of dryness/wetness has been assessed by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and principal component analysis (PCA) on 24-month time scales. The results demonstrated noticeable spatial patterns with several sub-regions characterized by different trends: a remarkable dry tendency prevails in central and east Sichuan, while the other areas are dominated by a wet tendency.     

Reproductive Potential and Fecundity of Lake Trout Strains in Southern and Eastern Waters of Lake Ontario, 1977–1994

We assessed the reproductive potential of various genetic strains of hatchery lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in southern and eastern Lake Ontario from indices of fecundity and indices of male abundance. Indices were constructed from catches of mature lake trout in gill nets during September 1980 to 1994 after correcting for mortality from sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) which occurred between September sampling and late fall spawning. Strain and age were assigned to individual lake trout based on clipped fins and maxillary bones or coded wire tags. Fecundity-length relationships for fish of the same age, determined from mature females collected in 1977 to 1981 and 1994, were not different (P > 0.05) among genetic strains. For all strains combined, fecundity-length relationships in 1977 to 1981 were not different among fish of various ages but in 1994, age-5 and -6 fish had fewer eggs (P < 0.003) than age-7 fish, and age-7 fish had fewer eggs (P < 0.003) than fish of age 8, 9, or 10. Annual indices of fecundity varied 19 fold and indices of mature males varied 11 fold; both indices were low in the early 1980s, increased sharply in the mid 1980s, and peaked in 1993. The strain which dominated fecundity and mature male indices shifted during the study from Seneca Lake strain to Lake Superior strain and then back to Seneca Lake strain. However, changes in either reproductive potential or genotypes do not appear responsible for the abrupt appearance of naturally-produced yearling lake trout throughout southern and eastern Lake Ontario in 1994–1995, the first widespread occurrence of juveniles produced by hatchery lake trout in Lake Ontario.     

Irrigation infrastructure development in the Limarí Basin in Central Chile: implications for adaptation to climate variability and climate change

One option to deal with climate variability in agriculture is to build irrigation infrastructure, although this may lead to the overdevelopment of water resources, leading to ‘basin closure’. The Limarí Basin, in central north Chile, has relied on irrigation infrastructure over the last 30 years to increase water supply reliability and extend irrigated acreage, especially for permanent crops. This situation has reduced adaptation opportunities in the basin, which is currently experiencing a severe drought that, according to climate change projections, is expected to persist in the future, with important consequences for the sustainability of agriculture production.     

Assessment of the Irrigation Advisory Services’ Recommendations and Farmers’ Irrigation Management: A Case Study in Southern Spain

The Local Irrigation Advisory Services (LIAS) carry out essential work to achieve an efficient use of irrigation water at field and irrigation scheme level, which is crucial in Mediterranean irrigation systems. However, it is unusual to find agronomic and economic assessments of LIAS advice. In this work, the LIAS operating in the Genil–Cabra Irrigation Scheme (southern Spain) was evaluated during the first 5 years of its advice. Acceptance by farmers of the LIAS recommendations was evaluated by using agronomic indicators, such as ARIS (Annual Relative Irrigation Supply). ARIS_LIAS (actual irrigation applied v. recommendation of LIAS) with values ranging from about 0.23 for wheat and sunflower, and 0.94 for maize, also detecting a high variability between farmers, which indicated a scant acceptance of the LIAS recommendations. The economic evaluation of irrigation was made through two economic indicators, Irrigation Water Productivity (IWP) and Irrigation Water Benefit (IWB). IWP values varied significantly between different crops: around 0.23 € m⁻³ in wheat, sunflower and maize, about 0.53 € m⁻³ in cotton and sugar beet, and values higher than 2.0 € m⁻³ in garlic, for optimal irrigation schedules. For IWB, trends were similar, emphasizing the low IWB values in wheat and sunflower (average values of 0.06 and 0.13 € m⁻³, respectively). Consideration of these economic indicators by LIAS could not only help to obtain more suitable and economically profitable irrigation schedules, but also contribute towards a greater acceptance of advisory services by farmers, by shifting the emphasis from maximizing production to maximizing irrigation profitability.