Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.

Evidence from 61 follow-up studies was examined to identify the factors most strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders. On average, the sexual offense recidivism rate was low (13.4%; n?=?23,393). There were, however, subgroups of offenders who recidivated at high rates. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviancy (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses) and, to a lesser extent, by general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). Those offenders who failed to complete treatment were at higher risk for reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile delinquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change.

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years postrelease. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism postrelease and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Therapeutic responses of psychopathic sexual offenders: Treatment attrition, therapeutic change, and long-term recidivism.

The authors examined the therapeutic responses of psychopathic sex offenders (≥25 Psychopathy Checklist—Revised; PCL–R) in terms of treatment dropout and therapeutic change, as well as sexual and violent recidivism over a 10-year follow-up among 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high-intensity inpatient sex offender program. Psychopathy and sex offender risk/treatment change were assessed using the PCL–R and the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS–SO), respectively. Although psychopathic participants were more likely than their nonpsychopathic counterparts (     

Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study.

Objective: To determine whether pro-social treatment change in sexual offenders would predict reductions in recidivism beyond static and dynamic risk factors measured at pretreatment and whether different methods for assessing change based on self-reports and structured clinical rating systems would show convergent validity. Method: We compared 3 methods for assessing treatment change with a sample of adult male sexual offenders against children (n = 218) who completed a prison-based cognitive–behavioral treatment program between 1993 and 2000. The methods were measures of change derived from offender self-reports on a psychometric battery administered both pre- and posttreatment, change across treatment on the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version (VRS:SO; Olver, Wong, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2007), and posttreatment ratings on the Standard Goal Attainment Scaling for Sex Offenders (SGAS; Hogue, 1994). Offenders were followed up for an average of 12.24 years after release. Results: All measures of treatment gain were positively correlated, and all significantly predicted reductions in sexual recidivism, with values for the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from .66 (SGAS) to .70 (VRS:SO). Survival analyses showed that measures of change based on the psychometric battery significantly predicted recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic factors measured at pretreatment, while results for the VRS:SO were similar but failed to reach significance. Conclusions: Measures of treatment change based on offender self-reports and structured clinical rating systems show convergent and predictive validity, which suggests that effective treatment that targets dynamic risk factors leads to a reduction in sexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sexual offender recidivism revisited: A meta-analysis of recent treatment studies.

Meta-analyses were performed on 12 studies of treatment with sexual offenders (N?=?1,313). A small, but robust, overall effect size was found for treatment versus comparison conditions (r?=?.12). The overall recidivism rate for treated sexual offenders was .19 versus .27 for untreated sexual offenders. Treatment effect sizes across studies, however, were heterogeneous. Effect sizes were larger in studies that had higher base rates of recidivism, had follow-up periods longer than 5 years, included outpatients, and involved cognitive-behavioral or hormonal treatments. Cognitive-behavioral (p?p?     

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Long-term recidivism of child molesters.

Examined the long-term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall, 42% of the total sample were reconvicted for sexual crimes, violent crimes, or both, with 10% of the total sample reconvicted 10–31 yrs after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than were offenders who selected only boys, with offenders against girls showing a rate intermediate between these 2 groups. Other factors associated with increased recidivism were (1) never being married and (2) previous sexual offenses. None of the mental health and personality tests used in this study (e.g., the Eysenck Personality Inventory and the MMPI) was significantly associated with recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Is androgen deprivation therapy effective in the treatment of sex offenders?

We review the effects of androgen deprivation on the sexual behavior of human males. Although eunuchs have existed in many cultures over the last 4,000 years, there is scant detailed and specific information in the historical record about castration status and sexual behavior. From the literature on modern-day eunuchs who are not sex offenders, we conclude that androgen deprivation reduces sexual desire and behavior, including sexual intercourse. Most men, especially those who did not volunteer for the treatment, experience the side effects as extremely bothersome. Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) receives endorsements from some clinicians who treat sex offenders, and it probably reduces sexual recidivism among men who freely request the procedure, but good evidence is sorely lacking. Men who freely request and persist with ADT are probably an especially low-risk group. Little is known about the effects of sexual or violent recidivism among sex offenders who do not freely request it. Little is known about the long term effects of ADT on sexual behavior in general, and sexual recidivism in particular, or about long-term health effects. Clearly, much more research is needed before ADT has a sufficient scientific basis to be relied upon as a principal component of sex offender treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Application of Megan's law to juveniles.

This article examines (a) the history of registration and notification statutes for sex offenders and the concerns and legal challenges they have faced, (b) psychology's limited knowledge about normal versus abnormal sexual development, and (c) research that suggests rates of recidivism for sexual offenses may be lower for juveniles than for adults who have been discovered and received punishment and/or treatment. Although the behaviors of juvenile and adult sex offenders may appear similar, the underlying mechanisms triggering the behaviors may be different or juveniles' patterns of behaviors may be less established, accounting for some of the observed differences in recidivism rates. Although the authors recognize the critical objective of protecting victims and potential victims, this article focuses on intervention efforts with juvenile sex offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's theorem.

The author applied Bayes's theorem to agewise sexual recidivism rates and the accuracy of high actuarial scores for predicting sexual recidivism in civil commitment cases. Recidivism rates consistently declined with age, paralleling the age-invariance pattern found for other offenders. Furthermore, actuarials were efficient for only the youngest group, were inaccurate for identifying recidivists, and misclassified many nonrecidivists as recidivists. Opinions about the accuracy of actuarials are therefore often wrong, and actuarials need to be reformulated. Finally, actuarials are useless for identifying likely sexual recidivists from populations with recidivism base rates below .25. Recommendations include seeking new trials in cases that overlooked age, focusing attention on young offenders, limiting commitment periods, and shifting resources from commitment centers to impact all offenders released to the community. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A randomized clinical trial of multisystemic therapy with juvenile sexual offenders: Effects on youth social ecology and criminal activity.

A randomized clinical trial evaluated the efficacy of multisystemic therapy (MST) versus usual community services (UCS) for 48 juvenile sexual offenders at high risk of committing additional serious crimes. Results from multiagent assessment batteries conducted before and after treatment showed that MST was more effective than UCS in improving key family, peer, and academic correlates of juvenile sexual offending and in ameliorating adjustment problems in individual family members. Moreover, results from an 8.9-year follow-up of rearrest and incarceration data (obtained when participants were on average 22.9 years of age) showed that MST participants had lower recidivism rates than did UCS participants for sexual (8% vs. 46%, respectively) and nonsexual (29% vs. 58%, respectively) crimes. In addition, MST participants had 70% fewer arrests for all crimes and spent 80% fewer days confined in detention facilities than did their counterparts who received UCS. The clinical and policy implications of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A person-oriented perspective on sexual offenders, offending trajectories, and risk of recidivism: A new challenge for policymakers, risk assessors, and actuarial prediction?

Current risk assessment tools are embedded in a variable-oriented perspective and based on the assumption that the risk of reoffending is linear, additive, and relatively stable over time. As a result, actuarial instruments tend to overestimate the risk of violent/sexual recidivism for some sex offenders while underestimating this risk for others. One of the main causes of such predictive inaccuracies is the inability of current actuarial tools to account for the dynamic aspects of offending trajectories over time. Using a person-oriented approach, the current study examined the presence of offending trajectories in sex offenders using measures of offending at multiple time points in adulthood to examine the risk of violent/sexual reoffending. The study was based on a sample of 246 adult males convicted of a sexual offense between 1994 and 1998. Group-based modeling was used to identify offending trajectories, while Cox proportional hazard was used to examine the links between the identified trajectories and recidivism. Findings suggest that a sex crime is more reflective of a transitory phase of the criminal career rather than evidence of a “sexual criminal career” in the making. The findings challenge underlying assumptions of current actuarial tools and calls for a more sophisticated approach to risk assessment that accounts for offending patterns. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism.

Objective: The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. Method: A meta-analysis of the offender treatment literature was conducted to identify predictors of offender treatment attrition and examine its relationship to recidivism. The review covered 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders. Sex offender and domestic violence programs were also examined separately given their large independent literatures. Results: The overall attrition rate was 27.1% across all programs (k = 96), 27.6% from sex offender programs (k = 34), and 37.8% from domestic violence programs (k = 35). Rates increased when preprogram attrition was considered. Significant predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., age, rw = ?.10), criminal history and personality variables (e.g., prior offenses, rw = .14; antisocial personality, rw = .14), psychological concerns (e.g., intelligence, rw = ?.14), risk assessment measures (e.g., Statistical Information on Recidivism scale, rw =.18), and treatment-related attitudes and behaviors (e.g., motivation, rw = ?.13). Results indicated that treatment noncompleters were higher risk offenders and attrition from all programs significantly predicted several recidivism outcomes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. Conclusions: The clients who stand to benefit the most from treatment (i.e., high-risk, high-needs) are the least likely to complete it. Offender treatment attrition can be managed and clients can be retained through an awareness of, and attention to, key predictors of attrition and adherence to responsivity considerations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n=82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Field validity of the STATIC-99 and MnSOST-R among sex offenders evaluated for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

Despite their widespread use in forensic and correctional practice, surprisingly little research investigates how well actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) for sexual offenders work within the contexts where they are routinely applied. We examined the predictive validity (M = 4.77 years follow-up) of the two most widely used ARAIs for sexual offenders, the STATIC-99 and Minnesota Sex Offender Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), as administered in routine practice among 1,928 offenders screened for possible civil commitment as sexually violent predators. Effect sizes for both ARAIs were lower than in most published research and meta-analytic reviews, although the STATIC-99 was a more consistent predictor of recidivism than the MnSOST-R. Recidivism rates for the STATIC-99 were much closer to those expected based on the 2009 norms than the 2003 norms. Offender characteristics (e.g., age at release, prior arrests, release type) were often as or more effective than ARAIs for predicting recidivism. This study, apparently the largest cross-validation study of popular ARAIs for sex offenders, suggests that the predictive validity of these measures in routine practice in the United States may be poorer than often assumed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An examination of the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act as applied to juveniles: Evaluating the ability to predict sexual recidivism.

The recently enacted Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act will expand and standardize the registration of adolescent sex offenders. To evaluate the effectiveness of this and similar legislation, the authors assessed 91 juvenile males who had been adjudicated for a sexual felony offense and 174 juvenile males who had no history of sexual offending with several risk measures. On admission to treatment, all participants were assessed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; A. E. Forth, D. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003). The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II; R. A. Prentky & S. Righthand, 2003), 3 state-developed risk protocols (from Wisconsin, Texas, and New Jersey), and the tier designation embedded in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act of 2006 (SORNA) were coded from the sex offender participants' records. Participants were followed for an average of 71.6 months (SD = 18.1 months) to determine charges for general, violent, and sexual offenses. Results showed inconsistencies in risk designations between the J-SOAP-II, SORNA tier, and state risk measures, and none, except for the PCL:YV, significantly predicted new general, violent, or sexual offense charges. Policy and legal implications concerning the assessment of adolescent sex offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders.

Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A high risk recognition program for adolescents in conflict with the law.

Describes a high risk recognition program aimed at reducing recidivism among the heterogeneous young offender population. The program, which is based on cognitive-behavioral relapse prevention programs for adult sexual offenders, was developed for use within an inpatient treatment program for 14–18 yr olds sentenced to secure custody for a variety of crimes. Young offenders identify risk factors or warning signs for various forms of offending behavior based on their analysis of past criminal acts. They then generate strategies for coping with future recurrence of these risk factors. The authors consider the utility and applicability of such an intervention and make recommendations for researching the efficacy of the technique. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: a methodological analysis

We address the high variability in sex offender recidivism rates by examining several of the critical methodological differences that underlie this variability. We used a dataset on 251 sex offenders (136 rapists and 115 child molesters) who were discharged over a 25-year period to examine changes in recidivism as a function of changes in dispositional definition of reoffense (e.g., arrest or conviction), changes in the domain of criminal offenses that are considered, and changes in the length of exposure time. The data indicate that: (a) both rapists and child molesters remain at risk to reoffend long after their discharge, in some cases 15-20 years after discharge; (b) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when calculating a simple proportion (%) consisting of those who were known to have reoffended during the follow-up period, and (c) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when the criterion was based on conviction or imprisonment. Forensic, clinical and policy implications of this high variability are discussed.