区域水资源系统脆弱性评价研究

通过人类活动与水资源、水环境的相互反馈作用,探讨了水资源系统脆弱性的内涵及程度分级,在此基础上建立了基于三层结构的评价指标体系。针对水资源系统脆弱性具有模糊性及相对性的特点,构建了基于循环迭代算法的模糊综合评判模型,从自然禀赋、水资源利用、社会经济三个方面,计算分析客观权重下河南省水资源系统脆弱性时空展布及演变规律。结果表明:河南省各地市水资源系统脆弱性呈现从西南到东北逐步升高的变化规律,其中南阳、信阳水资源脆弱程度较低,而郑州、焦作、安阳水资源系统非常脆弱。     

Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land Reserved Resources in Arid Areas Based on Regional Water Balance

With rapid socioeconomic and population growth, high-quality arable land resources are decreasing daily, especially in arid areas, which makes arable land reserve resources an important way to supplement arable land. How to accurately evaluate cultivated land reserve resources is of great significance to socioeconomic development and sustainable land use in arid areas. Therefore, this study selected Hangjin Banner as a typical area and calculated the regional maximum available irrigation water based on the principle of regional water balance. Then, the "irrigation area check algorithm" was used to evaluate the amount of cultivated land reserve resources, and policy recommendations were proposed for the development and utilization of cultivated land resources. The results showed that Hangjin Banner had no cultivated land reserve resources under the current irrigation method and had cultivated land reserve resources under the efficient water-saving irrigation method, but only in the southern zone during normal and partially abundant water years. Therefore, we believe that arid areas should adhere to the "set land by water" principle, the allocation of water resources should be optimized, and cultivated land resources with high quality should be utilized based on the actual regional conditions.

     

Application of Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model in Regional Partition of Water Resources in China

The present study develops a projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) model by combining dynamic cluster with projection pursuit to solve the problem of regional partition of water resources in China. The procedures of the PPDC model are described as follows. Firstly, a multi-factor cluster problem can be converted into a single-factor (projected characteristic value) cluster problem according to linear projection. Secondly, a new projection index on the basis of dynamic cluster rule is set up in the PPDC model, which successfully avoids the problem of parameter calibration and makes objective cluster results. Thirdly, genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to optimize projection direction of the PPDC model. Finally, the developed PPDC model is used in a case study of regional partition of water resources in China to evaluate its application. The cluster results of the PPDC model agree well with the actual regional partition of water resources in China, indicating that the PPDC model is a powerful tool in multi-factor cluster analyses and could be a new method for regional partition of water resources.     

Water Resources Assessment and Regional Virtual Water Potential in the Turpan Basin,China

Located in the centre of the Eurasian Continent, the Turpan Basin, as the second deepest lowland in the world, is extremely short of water resources. Aimed at this key scientific issue, this paper based on years of meteorological and hydrological observation data, carried out a scientific calculation and evaluation of surface and groundwater resources in the Turpan Basin, and then, with the help of modified Penman formula, calculated the virtual water potential in the basin in 2004. The results show that the average total usable surface water resources per year in the last decade were about 6.673×10⁸ m³, while adduction volume of surface water in 2003 was about 4.94×10⁸ m³, which means that most of the region has reached or approached the limit of water resources and, as a result serious crises and constraints on the development of the basin were thus caused. The exploitation content of groundwater in the Turpan Basin in 2003 was about 6.12×10⁸ m³, which has basically reached its upper limit, and the ground water level has fallen about 10~40 m in the Turpan Basin in recent years. The daily reference crop water requirement in the Turpan Basin in 2004 was about 1,053.39 mm, and the total virtual water potential contained in six main crops was about 5.25 ×10⁸ m³ in 2004. All these showed that research works on scientific assessment of water resources and regional virtual water strategy have great significance for the best social, ecological, economic benefits and regional sustainable development of the Turpan Basin.     

中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价

以中国东部季风区的八大流域为例,从水资源供需安全的角度,对2000年水资源状况和未来气候变化情景下的水资源脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明:海河流域是中国水资源的严重脆弱区,黄河和淮河均处于高度脆弱状态,辽河流域、松花江流域、长江流域、东南诸河和珠江流域绝大部分地区处于中度脆弱状态;未来气候变化使得中国东部季风区八大流域的水资源脆弱性均明显加重,黄淮海流域均上升到严重脆弱状态,对气候变化极度敏感,必须采取相应措施来积极应对气候变化对流域水资源的不利影响。     

Groundwater Resources in Lebanon: A Vulnerability Assessment

This paper presents a regional groundwater vulnerability assessment for Lebanon using the DRASTIC model coupled with a GIS‐based framework to prioritize protection efforts, whereby the most vulnerable areas to groundwater are targeted first, thus optimizing the allocation of financial and human resources. The objective of the study is to initiate a systematic approach to better manage and protect the country's groundwater resources.     

基于系统动力学模型的南渡江流域水资源脆弱性评价

水资源安全影响区域社会经济的健康发展,全球气候变化与人类活动已对流域水资源安全造成巨大压力.建立水资源、水环境及社会经济系统动力学(SD)模型,以层次分析法构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系与评价标准,设置常规、技术革新型、经济优先型以及综合发展4种模式,采用综合指数加权法对2010-2035年南渡江流域水资源脆弱性进行评价...     

基于AHP-ACO模型的区域水资源承载力评价

正确评价区域水资源承载力,对合理开发利用水资源以及促进区域社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。以新疆和田地区为例,利用层次分析法的层次框架思维模式与蚁群算法的自适应性及人为干扰少等特点,构建了层次分析-蚁群算法。采用层次分析法获得评价指标权重值,再利用蚁群算法确定研究区不同年份的优属度。结果表明:研究区历年水资源承载力等级均为Ⅱ级;其中,2012年的水资源承载力值最高,2011年的水资源承载力值最低,评价结果符合研究区实际情况。     

基于改进BP神经网络模型的云南文山州水资源脆弱性综合评价

利用层次分析法构建符合丰水地区水资源脆弱性评价的指标体系和等级标准,分别构建基于单、双隐层BP神经网络技术的区域水资源脆弱性综合评价模型,并采用内插法构造网络训练样本,将水资源脆弱性分级评价标准值作为“评价”样本,对云南文山州区域水资源脆弱性进行评价分析。结果表明：①单、双隐层BP神经网络模型对区域水资源脆弱性综合评价结果基本相同,说明研究建立的区域水资源脆弱性评价模型和评价方法均是合理可行的,与单隐层网络相比,双隐层网络泛化能力强,预测精度高,但训练时间较长;②文山州各评价区域不同规划水平年水资源脆弱性评价等级为Ⅲ-Ⅴ级,即处于中度脆弱与不脆弱之间,客观反映了该州水资源脆弱性状况,符合区域实际情况。评价结果可以作为研究和评价区域水资源脆弱性的参考依据。     

黄河上游水资源脆弱性评价研究

以地级行政区为评价单元,建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法计算指标权重,对黄河上游地级行政区进行了水资源脆弱性评价。结果表明,黄河上游地区水资源脆弱性呈明显的空间分异,不脆弱地区主要为半湿润区,极脆弱地区主要为半干旱区、干旱区;干旱半干旱的自然气候条件是研究区水资源脆弱性的主要因素,随着水资源脆弱性的提高,反映水资源开发利用程度的供需比迅速成为主导影响因素;水资源脆弱性评价结果相近的地区,影响因素有可能不同。根据评价结果,提出了提高水资源利用效率、严格控制水资源开发利用量、积极开发新水源和控制污染排放等适应性对策。     

A New Approach for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment: the Case Study of Campania Plain

We are going to propose a new method for aquifer vulnerability assessment, named Susceptibility Index-Contamination Degree (SICODE). Starting from the assumption that soil chemistry impacts on infiltration water quality, geochemical tool such as the soil contamination degree index (CD) was combined with hydrogeological parameters in order to enhance previous well-known index (DRASTIC, Susceptibility Index). The study has been carried out at the Campania Plain (CP) aquifer, which mostly supplies the drinking water distribution system of Napoli (Southern Italy). The survey area extends from Mt. Vesuvius to the metropolitan area of Napoli and it can be considered an interesting field laboratory in order to test hydro-geochemical methods and models since both diffuse anthropogenic pollution and natural contamination sources (e.g. interaction processes between groundwater and rock) coexist. Three models have been compared. Our results have showed that DRASTIC is not the best model to be applied to urbanized environments since it does not account for the anthropogenic influence. Susceptibility Index (SI), which incorporates land use parameter, has showed a more detailed map of vulnerability degree and it better answers the local variability of human pressure. However, the proposed SICODE method completely meets the geochemical fingerprint of soil. Sensitivity analysis has revealed a high variability of the parameters due to the local heterogeneity of the analyzed system conditions. A comparison between the groundwater nitrates distribution and the predicted vulnerability has showed that. SICODE gave more accurate predictions than the other ones. This study has provided the evidence that combining hydrogeological and geochemical tools may enhance aquifer vulnerability assessment.

     

河北省平原区土壤水资源数量评价

河北省平原区水资源短缺,土=壤水资源的数量评价对该区高效利用土壤水资源意义重大.首先定义了土壤水资源的概念,确定了土壤水资源评价分区和评价层厚度,提出了土壤水资源计算模型及各要素计算方法,并在河北省平原区进行了应用,得到了该区的土壤水资源数量.     

一种区域水资源管理绩效评价模型及实证研究

构建区域最严格水资源管理绩效评价模型,并利用与之相适应的数学方法进行区域水资源管理能力评价,对落实"三条红线"水资源管理制度具有重要意义。构建了基于灰色关联分析的改进TOPSIS模型,阐述了该模型的基本原理和求解方法。以河北省衡水市水资源管理能力评价为例进行实证分析,表明该模型具有较好的适用性和准确性,可以用于区域最严格水资源管理绩效评价。     

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin

Planning effective joint development programs in shared river basins is thought to become better when such programs are preceded by integrated studies. This paper aims to provide such a study through a situation analysis with regard to the vulnerability of water resources systems in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB). The focus was on using internationally recognized indicators and indices that can provide an insight about the situation in the region in a concise and illustrative fashion. A framework for assessing vulnerability of water systems was outlined and applied to the region. Based on a careful survey, a list of 31 indicators used for vulnerability assessment were identified and categorized to separate hydro-physical indicators from other indicators of socio-economic or political nature. The identified indicators were evaluated for the three ENB countries and illustrated in radar diagrams. Interpretations were drawn describing the vulnerability situation in each country. The main findings are: (1) vulnerability of water resources is highest in Sudan, followed by Ethiopia and then Egypt; (2) while vulnerability in Egypt stems mainly from hydro-physical factors; in Sudan and Ethiopia it is directly related to poverty and underdevelopment; (3) Higher stresses on available water resources in Egypt are due to increases in total withdrawals; while in Sudan and Ethiopia it is mainly due to water mal-distribution and quality deterioration; (4) governance factors in the three countries hinder the proper management of the available water resources.     

A Model for the Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in a Saltwater Intrusion Area: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta in China

This paper presents a model for the optimal allocation of water resources in saltwater intrusion areas. The model is comprised of four modules: a joint operation of river and reservoirs module (JORRM), a saltwater intrusion analysis module (SIAM), an economic analysis and in-stream ecology demand module (EAIEDM) and a water allocation module (WAM). Considering the social, economic and environmental aspects, the model has three objectives: the maximization of economic interest (OF ₁), maximization of social satisfaction (OF ₂) and the minimization of the amounts of polluted water (OF ₃). A genetic algorithm is also employed to optimize the module. The model has then been applied to a case study of optimization of water resources for the Pearl River Delta in China. The results indicate that there is water shortage in Pearl River Delta and engineering projects are needed to satisfy water demand during the dry season when saltwater intrusion happens. The model provides a useful tool for the operation of reservoirs and freshwater allocation in saltwater intrusion area.     

Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

This paper provides an overview of the 'standard' methodology developed for the United States Country Studies Program on the Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Clim ate Change. The methodology is described in more detail in accompanying articles in this issue. A standard methodology was developed for two reasons. First, for countries with little or no experience in hydrologic and water resources modelling, it provided a simple, yet appropriate set of modelling tools that could be quickly learned and applied with a limited data set. Second, it provided a consistent methodology for synthesizing results for regional and global assessments as well as cross-country and cross-regional comparisons.     

海河流域水资源脆弱性及其评价

水资源脆弱性是评价水资源系统对自然条件变动或人类开发利用影响承载能力的重要指标,其评价对于水资源保护工作非常重要。从自然因素、人为因素、综合因素三方面给出13个指标,利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,综合相关研究及经验确定各指标的标准值,综合进行区域水资源脆弱性评价。以海河流域为例开展了实例研究,海河流域现状的水资源脆弱度为59.7,属于中度脆弱区;在未来气候变化条件下,经过人工水资源调控措施,海河流域2020年、2030年水资源脆弱度分别为58.64、58.63,证明水资源调控措施将会改善海河流域水资源条件。该方法对流域级水资源系统的脆弱性评价有重要意义。     

水资源系统脆弱性的评价方法及其应用

采用模糊模式识别法对全国水资源系统脆弱性进行评价,同时采用集对分析法和投影寻踪法与其进行对比,验证模糊模式识别法评价结果的准确性和合理性,系统评价现状条件下全国水资源系统的脆弱性。结果表明:全国水资源受到地理位置、生态环境、气候变化、社会发展以及一系列不合理开发措施的影响,出现不同程度的脆弱性,其中海河区和黄河区脆弱性最为严重,应引起高度重视。模糊模式识别法与集对分析法和投影寻踪法的评价结果基本一致,证明了模糊模式识别法评价指标权重确定的合理性和评价结果的可靠性,其评价结果更符合我国水资源现状特征,更能引起人们对水资源脆弱性的重视。