Analysis of Iran's crude oil export future capacity

The paper analyzes Iran's oil export capacity and the factors affecting it. First, the local energy demand is reviewed and crude oil, with 5.7% annual growth rate, is introduced as a major source to respond to the increasing domestic energy demand. Then, the national plans for controlling the local demand and replacing oil with other types of energy carriers are reviewed to create a view over the future of local demand for crude oil in Iran. In the next step, crude oil production and exploration situation in Iran are investigated and the required increase in production to maintain the present level of export is calculated. By estimating the average capital expenditures for adding each barrel of new capacity to Iran's daily oil production, the necessary annual investment to compensate the production drop and domestic consumption growth for maintaining the export is introduced. Then, the future of oil export in Iran is predicted in three optimistic, reference, and pessimistic scenarios on the basis of the country's ability in managing the financial resources in upstream oil industry. Finally, domestic and foreign investment and the history of buyback contracts and their undeniable role in development of Iranian oil and gas projects are discussed.     

Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran

This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA–DEM_exponential and GA–DEM_linear, respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO–DEM_exponential and PSO–DEM_linear, respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030.     

The pollutant discharge improvement by introducing HHO gas into biomass boiler

Biomass fuel has been widely concerned because its net CO₂ emission is close to zero. Biomass boilers are known to have lower pollutant emissions than fossil fuel boilers, but in some applications, they also release high-level CO and NO. We developed a medium-sized hydrogen and oxygen (HHO) generator, with high energy conversion rate and adjustable output gas. The HHO gas was then introduced into a biomass hot air generator for mixed combustion. The experimental results showed that based on the electricity consumption of gas production and biomass fuel price, the total cost during preheating reduced. In addition, the average concentrations of CO, NO and smoke decreased by 93.0%, 22.5% and 80%, respectively. Integration of biomass fuel and HHO gas can effectively reduce pollutant emissions and save fuel, especially in areas rich in renewable energy.     

EEC energy policy and the UK: The Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.     

Economic limit of Outer Continental Shelf Gulf of Mexico structure production

The economic limit of an oil and gas asset occurs when income from production is less than the direct cost of operation. Economic limits determine the threshold for profitable operations and are often considered from a conceptual perspective rather than as an object for empirical assessment. The purpose of this paper is to derive empirical estimates of the economic limit of offshore structures in the Outer Continental Shelf Gulf of Mexico. We classify 1962 decommissioned structures between 1986–2009 by structure type, primary production, water depth and year of removal, and compute end-of-life production, adjusted gross revenue, and water cut thresholds according to various levels of categorization. During the last year of production, historic gross revenues averaged $539,000 for oil structures, $955,000 for gas structures, and $1.1 million for dry gas structures. Daily end-of-life production ranged from 50 BOEPD for oil structures to 647 MCFEPD for gas structures and 788 MCFEPD for dry gas structures. The economic limits for oil and gas structures increased to $1 million and $1.7 million over the period 2005–2009.     

Sustainability of energy production and use in Iran

The issue of oil and gas policies in Iran is rather complex. In the present investigation, it is aimed to formulate plans for increasing the capacity of the country's energy production. Analysis of energy consumption pattern over last decades is indicative of inefficient usage. The low energy prices in Iran do not reflect economic costs. Further distortions exist in the tariff structures of most energy sources and in their relative prices. It is recognized that price reform is a key policy element for promotion of energy conservation and fuel substitution with renewable energies. Mitigation policies in the energy sector are crucial to Iran's overall policies. Emission of greenhouse gases can be reduced from 752,156 to 560,791 Gg CO₂ equivalents in 2010 by implementing the policies proposed for the energy sub-sectors. Enhancing energy efficiency, including combined cycle power generation, has proved to be the most economic option for greenhouse gases reduction in energy sector. Iran's energy consumption pattern is unsustainable and consumption oriented.     

Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in Iran?

This paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Iran within a multivariate production model. We also investigate the effects of natural gas price on its consumption and economic growth using a demand side model. The paper employs bounds test approach to level relationship over the period of 1972–007. We find evidence of bidirectional positive relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in short-run and long-run, based on the production model. The findings also suggest that real GDP growth and natural gas have positive and negative impacts on gross fixed capital formation, respectively. Employment, however, was found to have negative but insignificant impact on gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, the estimation results of demand side model suggest that natural gas price has negative and significant impact on natural gas consumption only in the long-run, though there is insignificant impact on economic growth. These results imply that the Iranian government's decision for natural gas price liberalization has the adverse effects on economic growth and policy makers should be cautious in doing this policy.     

流程优化减少外购天然气的探讨

外购天然气是炼厂补充制氢原料的主要途径之一。青岛石化制氢装置原设计以自产焦化干气为主要原料。锅炉装置以管网干气为主要燃料,在自产干气产量不足时,用催化油浆作为主要燃料。后因自产干气缺口较大,开始采用外购天然气补充自产干气作为制氢原料。在外购天然气投用之初,其因低廉的价格和充足的气源,在全厂瓦斯平衡和降低生产成本上发挥着重要作用。但近几年来,随着工业整体用气量的增长,以及天然气资源增长速度相对缓慢,外购天然气的价格开始快速攀升,其性价比逐渐降低。通过优化测算不同加工方案下催化油浆的边际价格,认为在当前外购天然气资源紧张、性价比较低、自产干气缺口较大情况下,使用催化油浆作为调节手段,代替自产干气作为锅炉燃料,进一步使焦化干气能够满足制氢装置需要,不增加投资,就可有效降低生产成本、创造效益。     

Prospects for coal gasification in Pakistan

Pakistan is currently facing serious energy supply problems. Energy demand has been increasing by about 8% per year during the last 12yr and this trend is likely to continue. Since 1980–1981 the oil import bill has been consuming more than 50% of yearly export earning. As there is not much scope for a sizeable increase in the domestic supply of gas, oil, or hydroelectric power, increasing the use of domestic coal is necessary to avoid excessive dependence on imported energy. Coal gasification to produce substitute natural gas (SNG) is not economical at present coal production costs, due to the low cost of indigenous gas and subsidized furnace oil and kerosene and the high SNG production costs from the technology available at present. If domestic prices of gas and liquid fuels are increased to the level of current international oil prices and developments in coal gasification technologies can bring about expected reductions in capital costs and improvements in efficiency, coal gasification may become economical in Pakistan. It is estimated that indigenous coal resources can potentially supply 3–6 million TCE/yr of SNG by 2000—about 10–20% of the substitutable fossil fuels demand for that year—along with meeting about 9% of the electricity demand.     

Energy auditing and energy conservation potential for glass works

A state-owned glass production enterprise introduces the strategic investor to carry on the assets reorganization, including the purchase of two float glass production lines with subsequent technology transformations and the construction of a new float glass production line with domestic leading technology. The fuel consumption structure has changed from coal-burning to natural gas or fuel oil. The following auditing procedures were followed according to Chinese national standards. These procedures include constituting an ordinance on energy management, strengthening the energy measurement and data statistical system, and improving production lines as well as energy-saving measures. Production scale expanded approximately twice during the period of audit. Comprehensive energy consumption was 2.58 ton coal equivalent (tce) at aqual in heat value (AHV refers to energy consumed to generate each kW h of electric power, each m³ of oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, or each kg of steam. The term of AHV provides a unification measurement criterion for fossil fuels consumed before the energy transformation.) account per 10,000 Yuan output value, and 2.17 tce at heat value equivalent (HVE) account. Comprehensive energy consumption per unit of product was 15.35 kg coal equivalent (kce) per weight box. The percentage of energy cost among total cost reduced from 51.19% in 2007 to 46.48% in 2008. Consequently, the comprehensive energy conversion level holds a leading position among peers in China.     

2019年我国石油市场分析与2020年展望

2019年,我国成品油消费增速放缓,炼油产能快速扩张使成品油产量增速加快,成品油净出口再创新高;在增储上产政策促动下,国内原油储产量探底回升;受炼油能力增长拉动原油净口量仍较快增长、首次突破5亿t,对外依存度依然维持高位。油气体制改革举措逐步落地,石油市场进一步开放、主体多元化进程加快,油气管网运营机制改革取得标志性进展,同时在调整税费政策、完善油气资源开发利用政策等方面出台了系列规定。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对一季度我国成品油需求造成较大影响,但将逐步回复,全年成品油需求预计低速增长,原油产量有望持续回升,炼油能力持续较快增长将推动成品油出口继续增加。     

A critical review of Iran''s buyback contracts

Iran's oil and gas industry requires investments of US$ 15 billion in the short term and over US$70 billion in the medium term. Iran tries to interest international oil companies (IOC) in investing in Iran's oil and gas business by offering buyback contracts. Under a buyback contract an IOC invests and when production starts, the field is handed over to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) or one of its representatives. The IOC gets its costs and an agreed upon profit paid out of the oil and/or gas gross profits, assuming the field produces as agreed upon and the international energy prices are high enough. According to the Iranian government, the buyback contract contains sufficient incentives for an IOC to invest in Iran. The IOCs, however, disagree. They claim that they solely bare the risks in a buyback contract, whereas the Iranian counterpart receives all windfall profits. Furthermore, the IOCs claim that the utilisation of Iran's oil and gas reserves will be sub-optimal if they are not involved in optimising long-term recovery. In this paper, we investigate these claims and show that they are partly correct. Given Iran's need for investment capital, Iran might have to change its policy.     

Energy production trend in Iran and its effect on sustainable development

The purpose of this study is to review the energy production trend from different energy resources in recent decades and its effect on sustainable energy production as one of the basic axis of sustainable development in Iran.Ninety nine percent of energy production in Iran comes from oil & gas and only 1% from renewable energy resources. Since Iran has very rich fossil energy resources, little attention has been paid to explore alternative ways of energy production. Majority of country's income is from oil & gas which put extra pressure on its natural resources. Continuing with the existing trend may lead to a path away from the goals of sustainable development, set for the country. Therefore, the sustainability study should be of interest to decision-makers.     

Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran

Oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of Iran. On average, 60% of the Iranian government revenues and 90% of export revenues originate from oil and gas resources. Current international sanctions on Iran have mainly targeted the oil production capacity of Iran and its exports to the global markets. In this study, we analyze the dynamic effects of oil shocks on different categories of the Iranian government expenditures from 1959 to 2007, using impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDC) techniques. The main results show that Iran's military and security expenditures significantly respond to a shock in oil revenues (or oil prices), while social spending components do not show significant reactions to such shocks.     

Hydrogen energy share enhancement in a heavy duty diesel engine under RCCI combustion fueled with natural gas and diesel oil

The aim of this study is to enhance hydrogen energy share in a RCCI engine. The engine under consideration is fueled with diesel oil and natural gas enriched with hydrogen or syngas and is set to operate at 9.4 bar gross indicated mean effective pressure (Mid- Load). The syngas used in this study consists of hydrogen and carbon monoxide which are mixed together on a volumetric ratio of 80:20. A fixed amount of diesel oil is injected per cycle into the combustion chamber of the RCCI engine. Based on two different strategies, hydrogen or syngas mixed with exhaust gas recirculation are admitted gradually along with natural gas while ensuring that always the low temperature combustion concept is fulfilled. The RCCI engine operation is simulated through commercial software coupled with chemical kinetics solver. The simulation results show that without any engine diesel knock occurrence, by adding hydrogen to natural gas, the share of hydrogen energy could be increased up to 40.43% while the engine power output is reduced only by about 1%. Also, syngas addition to natural gas causes that the share of hydrogen energy could be increased up to 27.05% while improves the engine power more than 4%. At the same time, by considering two mentioned strategies, the overall hydrocarbon fuel consumption per cycle can be reduced by up to 46.60% and 33.86%, respectively. Moreover, having the gross indicated efficiency of well over 50% and significant reduction in the engine emissions compared to RCCI combustion fueled solely with natural gas and diesel oil are achievable.     

Some general equilibrium effects of declining crude oil production in Australia

Crude oil production in Australia is expected to decline significantly during the 1990s. As a result, net imports of crude oil could increase sharply over the period. In this paper, macroeconomic, intersectoral and interindustry effects of a fall in domestic crude oil production are examined. General equilibrium effects are estimated using ORANI, a large multisectoral model of the Australian economy. By itself, the reduction in crude oil production would require restraint in domestic expenditure and a decline in Australia's real exchange rate in order to offset the expected rise in net crude oil imports. Furthermore, a contraction of the domestic oil industry would result in a small decline in gross domestic produce together with an expansion of other import-competing and export industries. It is important to note that other changes in the energy sector, such as the substantial expected increase in production of coal, uranium and LNG over the next decade, have the potential to more than offset the macroeconomic effects of reduced oil production.     

Economic limit of field production in Texas

When the revenue generated from an oil and gas field is less than the cost of operations, the field is no longer considered an asset and production ceases. Capital investment may be made in an attempt to increase production or the field may be divested or abandoned. At some point in time all fields will terminate production at their economic limit. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the economic limit of field production in Texas. We classify 16,045 fields that terminated production between 1993 and 2008 by product type, location, and year of termination, and compute average production and adjusted gross revenue statistics near the end of the field’s life cycle. We demonstrate that the revenue thresholds of offshore oil and gas fields is greater than the economic limits of fields located in bays-estuaries and on land and gas fields turn marginal sooner than oil fields. During the last year of production, average oil field revenue varied from $65,000 on land and bays-estuaries to $181,000 offshore; gas field revenue thresholds ranged from $384,000 (land) to $584,000 (bays-estuaries) to $637,000 (offshore).     

A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation

Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.     

Renewable energy and coal use in Turkey

Turkey becomes more dependent on foreign countries for fulfilling its energy needs day by day. While 77% of the overall primary energy consumption in 1970 was met by the domestic energy sources, this percentage decreased to 28% in 2003. As for the electricity production, while 89% of the produced electricity was produced by using the domestic sources, this percentage decreased to 68% in 1970 and 44% in 2003. The percentage of dependence on foreign countries increased year by year and reached 56% in 2003. The energy sources of Turkey are renewable energy sources and coal. If both of these energy sources are used effectively, Turkey will have a capacity to produce its overall electricity production using its own sources. The incorrect policies applied in Turkey introduced oil as a primary energy source for electricity production in 1970s and Turkey defrayed the cost of this wrong application severely by oil crisis. After 2000, natural gas, which was completely imported, was introduced as an energy source and its share in electricity production reached 45%. It is vital for Turkey to question this situation in order to ensure a sustainable development using reliable energy sources.