A genetic programming-based regression for extrapolating a blood glucose-dynamics model from interstitial glucose measurements and their first derivatives

This paper illustrates the development and the applicability of an Evolutionary Computation approach to enhance the treatment of Type-1 diabetic patients that necessitate insulin injections. In fact, being such a disease associated to a malfunctioning pancreas that generates an insufficient amount of insulin, a way to enhance the quality of life of these patients is to implement an artificial pancreas able to artificially regulate the insulin dosage. This work aims at extrapolating a regression model, capable of estimating the blood glucose (BG) through interstitial glucose (IG) measurements and their numerical first derivatives. Such an approach represents a viable preliminary stage in building the basic component of this artificial pancreas. In particular, considered the high complexity of the reciprocal interactions, an evolutionary-based strategy is outlined to extrapolate a mathematical relationship between BG and IG and its derivative. The investigation is carried out about the accuracy of personalized models and of a global relationship model for all of the subjects under examination. The discovered models are assessed through a comparison with other models during the experiments on personalized and global data.     

Blood glucose level prediction for diabetes based on modified fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization

Blood glucose control is an essential goal for the patients who have Type‐1 diabetes (T1D). The prediction of the blood glucose levels for the next 30‐minute is crucial. If the predicted blood glucose level is in the critical ranges, and these predictions can be known in advance, then the patients can take the necessary cautions to prevent from it. In this article, we propose a modified fuzzy particle swarm optimization algorithm for the prediction of blood glucose levels of 30‐minute after the last measurement. We form the average and patient‐specific models to predict the blood glucose level of the patients. Both models are tested on two different datasets which contain patients with T1D. The experimental results are evaluated in terms of root mean squared error and Clarke error grid analysis metrics. The results indicate that our proposed modified algorithm is feasible to be applied to the prediction of blood glucose levels. In addition, this approach can assist patients with T1D for their blood glucose control.     

Comparison of interval and Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of postprandial glucose under uncertainty in type 1 diabetes mellitus

In this paper, the problem of tackling uncertainty in the prediction of postprandial blood glucose is analyzed. Two simulation approaches, Monte Carlo and interval models, are studied and compared. Interval simulation is carried out using modal interval analysis. Simulation of a glucoregulatory model with uncertainty in insulin sensitivities, glucose absorption and food intake is carried out using both methods. Interval simulation is superior in predicting all severe and mild hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes. Furthermore, much less computational time is required for interval simulation than for Monte Carlo simulation.     

联合MOD11A1和地面气象站点数据的多站点温度预测深度学习模型

针对地面气象站点分布稀疏影响站点间关系以及站点间的关系强度推理难的问题,提出一种基于联合MOD11A1和地面气象站点数据的多站点温度预测深度学习模型（GDM）。GDM包括时空注意力（TSA）、双向图神经长短期记忆（DG-LSTM）网络编码和边-点转换双向门控循环网络解码（EN-GRU）模块。首先使用TSA模块提取MOD11A1图像特征并形成多个虚拟气象站点的温度时间序列,缓解地面气象站点分布稀疏对站点间关系的影响;然后用DG-LSTM编码器通过融合两组温度时间序列来计算地面气象站点间和虚拟气象站点间的关系强度;最后用ENGRU解码器通过结合站点间的关系强度对地面气象站点的温度时间序列关系进行建模。实验结果表明,相较于二维卷积神经网络（2D-CNN）、长短期记忆全连接网络（LSTM-FC）、长短期记忆神经网络扩展网络（LSTME）和长短记忆与自适应提升集成网络（LSTM-AdaBoost）,GDM在10个地面气象站点24 h内温度预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）分别减小0.383℃、0.184℃、0.178℃和0.164℃,能提高未来24 h多个气象站点温度的预测精度。