灰色关联分析与云模型集成的方案评价方法*

针对传统方案评价方法中大都没有考虑评价信息随机性的情况,运用云模型建立云评价标度。针对传统客观属性权重确定方法主要依据属性值分布,没有考虑到指标间的相互影响关系,将熵值法和DEMATEL结合计算指标权重,其中采用云距离测度算法直接计算定性评价间的距离,避免了定性云转化为定量值时的信息损失。采用灰色关联分析处理云评价指标,对方案进行排序。利用方案总体云评价绘制云图,定性比较各方案优劣。最后以实例验证了所提方法的有效性。     

云模型与VIKOR集成的多属性群决策方法

针对以往定性概念量化过程中只考虑到模糊性这一不确定性因素的不足,采用云模型从模糊性和随机性两个方面实现语义评价变量的量化,并对专家组的语义评价信息进行集结。针对以往云差异性度量方法的不足,基于云模型构成的本质特点,从云滴分布的角度提出了云距离测度算法,进而提出了云相似度算法。考虑到决策指标间相互影响关系,将云模型与决策试验与实验评估法（Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL）相结合,采用云DEMATEL法对专家主观评价给出的指标初始重要度进行修正,进而计算得到指标权重。采用云距离算法计算备选方案与正、负理想解间的距离,并最终由云VIKOR求得备选方案的妥协解。最后以实例验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于云定性仿真的兰彻斯特作战模型

过去多年来兰彻斯特方程已成为计算机作战仿真领域的标准方法, 然而该类方法不能充分反映建模中相关变量内在的不确定性。鉴于此, 提出了一种基于云定性仿真方法的定性兰彻斯特作战模型, 该方法引入正态云的数字特征和云测度指标表示定性路标值, 并将云测度指标在约束集合中传播以提高仿真结果的准确性, 不仅可以更准确地表征作战模型中相关变量的不确定性, 而且扩充了作战应用的适用范围, 尤其是在无法或无需对模型相关变量精确量化的情况下, 仿真中涉及到如何表征这些不确定性的定性变量时, 该方法具有一定优势。最后以经典历史战役为例验证了该方法的正确性与可行性。     

改进IVHF-TODIM在云服务安全评估中的应用研究

针对云服务安全评估时专家判断复杂的心理特征问题,在区间犹豫模糊背景下提出一种改进的IVHF-TODIM多属性决策方法。结合COWA算子和Dice相似性测度的各自优势,提出了一种考虑决策者态度的区间犹豫模糊Dice相似性测度公式,并对其基本性质加以验证,在TODIM方法优势度的计算中,运用所提出的Dice相似性测度替代原有的距离测度,最后将该方法运用到云服务安全评估上。实例分析表明了该方法的有效性。     

基于云模型的改进FMEA风险评估方法

针对风险评估过程中的模糊性和随机性两个不确定性因素,采用云模型对语义评价变量进行量化,并通过云的合成对专家的评价结果进行集结,构建云风险评价矩阵。将风险因子O、S、D期望重要度与云的相似度相结合计算风险因子的权重。考虑到传统故障模式与影响分析（Failure Mode and Effects Analysis,FMEA）中故障模式风险值排序的缺陷,基于云的距离测度算法提出云-VIKOR的风险排序方法。最后以实例验证了所提方法的精确性和有效性。     

基于前景理论及云模型风险型多准则决策方法

针对具有语言评价信息、准则权系数部分已知的多准则决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论及云模型的决策方法。首先,通过给出一种改进的云模型生成方法将语言评价值转化为云模型;然后,通过定义云模型距离和可能度给出云前景价值,并以其他备选方案为动态参考点,构建云前景决策矩阵;最后,在依据离差最大化得出最优权系数的基础上,通过各方案综合前景值对其进行排序。算例验证了所提出方法的合理性和可靠性。     

基于云模型融入定性信息的定量仿真方法

针对系统定量仿真中存在的定性信息无法充分合理使用、定量信息和定性信息不能融合的问题,提出了一种基于云模型的定性仿真建模方法,并将其融入定量仿真之中.首先给出了基于云模型的变量空间描述,然后提出了基于云模型的融入定性信息的定量仿真方法.给出了包括定性与定量信息的融合运算、定性信息的持续与周期变化等在内的难点问题的解决方法.最后通过一个复杂供应链系统仿真实例验证了该方法的可行性.结果表明,改进方法具有客观的表达不确定性信息的特点,能将定性信息有效地融合到系统的定量仿真之中.     

基于云模型以约束为中心的复杂系统定性建模

针对以约束为中心的复杂系统仿真中缺乏有效的不确定性信息描述方法,导致仿真中不确定性信息不能充分利用的问题,借鉴和采纳云模型的相关理论和方法,研究了以约束为中心基于云模型的复杂系统定性建模方法。首先提出了仿真中基于云模型的不确定信息表示方法、基于云模型和群体专家决策的量空间构建方法;然后给出了基于云模型的系统定性约束方程的构建方法;最后将提出的建模方法应用于一个敏捷供应链的建模实例。结果表明提出的建模方法具有客观表达不确定信息、将定性与定量信息在仿真中相互融合的优点。     

基于云模型的可信软件可靠性度量模型

针对可信软件可靠性定性评估问题,将云模型理论与GB/T16260中软件可靠性度量指标相结合,提出了一种基于云模型的软件可靠性度量模型.模型根据可靠性度量指标提取样本信息,通过云发生器生成云模型,运用合并云算法将多个属性云合并为一个综合云模型,使用带权重的欧氏距离云决策算法确定综合云模型的可靠性等级.通过某安全关键软件验证,该模型能够更加客观、真实地反映软件的可靠性.     

基于未确知测度的软件可靠性定性评价

分析了软件可靠性定性评价中的不确定性,结合未确知数学理论,建立了软件可靠性评价指标体系,提出可靠性评分、不确定性量化方法和置信度准则,构造软件可靠性定性评价未确知测度模型,将该方法应用在惯性导航软件系统的可靠性定性评价中,验证了该模型的可用性和有效性。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.