A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

The increasing complexity and dynamism of construction projects have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk analysis process. Most of the real-world risk analysis problems contain a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data; therefore quantitative risk assessment techniques are inadequate for prioritizing risks. This article presents a risk assessment methodology based on the Fuzzy Sets Theory, which is an effective tool to deal with subjective judgement, and on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is used to structure a large number of risks. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, since they carry out the risks identification and their structuring, and also the subjective judgements of the parameters which are considered to assess the overall risk factor: risk impact, risk probability and risk discrimination. All of these factors are expressed by qualitative scales which are defined by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables. The most notable differences with other fuzzy risk assessment methods are the use of an algorithm to handle the inconsistencies in the fuzzy preference relation when pair-wise comparison judgements are necessary, and the use of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers until the defuzzification step. An illustrative example on risk assessment of a rehabilitation project of a building is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.     

Integrated tool for risk assessment in agricultural management of soil erosion and losses of phosphorus and nitrogen

In recent years, increased attention has been focused on models for risk assessment of source areas in agricultural landscapes. Among the simplest of such models are index tools, which have been developed particularly for phosphorus (P) and to some extent nitrogen (N). However, only a few studies have considered the development of an integrated management strategy that includes erosion and losses of both P and N. Accordingly, the major objective of this study was to initiate the development of an integrated risk assessment tool, consisting of indices for erosion, P and N. The strategy used to create the integrated tool was based on the assumption that all input data at field scale should be readily available either from ordinary agricultural statistics or from the farmer. The results from using the indices in a pilot case study catchment illustrated that losses of P and N had often different critical source areas. The P index was highest for fields with manure application and/or high soil P status or with autumn ploughing, and the N index was highest for fields with excessive N application. The integrated risk was greatest for areas with manure application and some areas with a high erosion risk in combination with high nutrient application rate. Additionally, four different management options were assessed: (1) reduced fertilisation, (2) catch crops, (3) autumn ploughing, and (4) no autumn ploughing. The results verified that reduced nutrient application and stubble during autumn and winter led to the largest decrease in index values, and it was also apparent that management changes in high-risk areas had the greatest impact on the indices. Overall, our findings indicate that the present integrated risk assessment tool with readily available input data can be used to rank farm fields according to risk of soil erosion and losses of P and N.     

农药生产线的安全状况评价和环境风险评估研究

针对农药厂新生产线上的安全性分析,采用物质危险特性辨识,单元危险度排序,关键单元HAZOP分析,重点隐患的故障树定性和定量分析等四种方法对新农药生产线作了相应的安全分析研究,给出了相应的安全对策。同时用三种环境评估模型对生产过程中泄漏事件中毒云的释放和分散作了进一步检查,分析结果证明,隐患的存在对工厂和周边环境的人员的风险水平在可控范围内。     

Mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2000 and their scenarios until 2020

The paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding European emissions of mercury and presents estimates of European emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources for the year 2000. This information was then used as a basis for Hg emission scenario development until the year 2020. Combustion of coal in power plants and residential heat furnaces generates about half of the European emissions being 239 tonnes. The coal combustion is followed by the production of caustic soda with the use of the Hg cell process (17%). Major points of mercury emission generation in the mercury cell process include: by-product hydrogen stream, end box ventilation air, and cell room ventilation air. This technology is now being changed to other caustic soda production technologies and further reduction of Hg emissions is expected in this connection. The third category on the list of the largest Hg emitters in Europe is cement production (about 13%). The largest emissions were estimated for Russia (the European part of the country), contributing with about 27% to the European emissions, followed by Poland, Germany, Spain, Ukraine, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Most of these countries use coal as a major source of energy in order to meet the electricity and heat demands. In general, countries in the Central and Eastern Europe generated the main part of the European emissions in 2000. Emission reductions between 20% and 80% of the 2000 emission amounts can be obtained by the year 2020, as estimated by various scenarios.     

Ecological risk assessment of zinc from stormwater runoff to an aquatic ecosystem

Zinc (Zn) risks from stormwater runoff to an aquatic ecosystem were studied. Monitoring data on waterborne, porewater, and sediment Zn concentrations collected at 20 stations throughout a stormwater collection/detention facility consisting of forested wetlands, a retention pond and first order stream were used to conduct the assessment. Bioavailability in the water column was estimated using biotic ligand models for invertebrates and fish while bioavailability in the sediment was assessed using acid volatile sulfide-simultaneously extracted metal (AVS-SEM). The screening level assessment indicated no significant risks were posed to benthic organisms from Zn concentrations in sediments and pore water. As would be expected for stormwater, Zn concentrations were temporally quite variable within a storm event, varying by factors of 2 to 4. Overall, probabilistic assessment indicated low (5-10% of species affected) to negligible risks in the system, especially at the discharge to the first order stream. Moderate to high risks (10-50% of species affected) were identified at sampling locations most upgradient in the collection system. The largest uncertainty with the assessment is associated with how best to estimate chronic exposure/risks from time-varying exposure concentrations. Further research on pulse exposure metal toxicity is clearly needed to assess stormwater impacts on the environment.     

Towards a better modelling and assessment of construction risk: Insights from a literature review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.     

Water body and riparian buffer strip characteristics in a vineyard area to support aquatic pesticide exposure assessment

The implementation of a geodata-based probabilistic pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in Germany offers the opportunity to base the exposure estimation on more differentiated assumptions including detailed landscape characteristics. Since these characteristics can only be estimated using field surveys, water body width and depth, hydrology, riparian buffer strip width, ground vegetation cover, existence of concentrated flow paths, and riparian vegetation were characterised at 104 water body segments in the vineyard region Palatinate (south-west Germany).Water body segments classified as permanent (n = 43) had median values of water body width and depth of 0.9 m and 0.06 m, respectively, and the determined median width:depth ratio was 15. Thus, the deterministic water body model (width = 1 m; depth = 0.3 m) assumed in regulatory exposure assessment seems unsuitable for small water bodies in the study area. Only 25% of investigated buffer strips had a dense vegetation cover (> 70%) and allow a laminar sheet flow as required to include them as an effective pesticide runoff reduction landscape characteristic. At 77 buffer strips, bordering field paths and erosion rills leading into the water body were present, concentrating pesticide runoff and consequently decreasing buffer strip efficiency. The vegetation type shrubbery (height > 1.5 m) was present at 57 (29%) investigated riparian buffer strips. According to their median optical vegetation density of 75%, shrubberies may provide a spray drift reduction of 72 ± 29%.Implementing detailed knowledge in an overall assessment revealed that exposure via drift might be 2.4 and via runoff up to 1.6 fold higher than assumed by the deterministic approach. Furthermore, considering vegetated buffer strips only by their width leads to an underestimation of exposure by a factor of as much as four. Our data highlight that the deterministic model assumptions neither represent worst-case nor median values and therefore cannot simply be adopted in a probabilistic approach.     

Concentrations of urinary pesticide metabolites in small-scale farmers in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Our research goal was to assess exposure to currently used pesticides among small-scale male farmers residing in two topographically different areas in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. Farmers (N = 136) were recruited from Pong Yaeng subdistrict (N = 67) and Inthakhin subdistrict (N = 69). Each farmer provided a morning urine void for the analysis of 30 urinary metabolites of insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides. Farmers in Pong Yaeng had significantly higher urinary concentrations of metabolites of organophosphorus insecticides and ethylene bisdithiocarbamates, while farmers from Inthakhin had significantly higher concentrations of malathion, 2,4-D, alachlor, and parathion or EPN metabolites. Based upon the metabolites measured in the urine of the farmers, chlorpyrifos and pyrethroid insecticides seemed to be commonly used across both communities; no significant differences in metabolite concentrations of these insecticides were observed between the two farmer groups. The presence of methamidaphos in the urine of farmers suggests that, despite a ban on its use, methamidaphos continues to be used in the communities. A similar finding with metabolites of methyl parathion must be further investigated. Overall, our results suggest that while each community may use different pesticides, Thai farmers are exposed to a wide variety of pesticides with a broad range in exposure magnitude. Furthermore, age, field size, crop production type, and the use of protective equipment were found to be potential factors influencing the degree of exposure.     

Probabilistic risk assessment for evacuees in building fires

A probabilistic risk assessment method for evacuees in building fires is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on operational reliability of fire protection systems. For a fire scenario, the time to untenable conditions is characterized by probability distribution with consideration of some uncertainties of design fire. Moreover, occupant pre-movement time, one of the most important proportions of evacuation time, is characterized by normal distribution to express its uncertainty. Based on calculated results of ASET and RSET for every fire scenarios, the expected number of casualties is obtained when untenable conditions occur. Moreover, according to some fire statistical data, expected risk to life (ERL) is calculated to express the risk severity. Finally, a case study for a supermarket building is presented to express the risk assessment method in detail.     

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland

Cryptosporidium species are protozoan parasites associated with gastro-intestinal illness. Following a number of high profile outbreaks worldwide, it has emerged as a parasite of major public health concern. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to evaluate the annual risk of infection from Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland. The assessment considers the potential initial contamination levels in raw water, oocyst removal and decontamination events following various process stages, including coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. A number of scenarios were analysed to represent potential risks from public water supplies, group water schemes and private wells. Where surface water is used additional physical and chemical water treatment is important in terms of reducing the risk to consumers. The simulated annual risk of illness for immunocompetent individuals was below 1 × 10^− 4 per year (as set by the US EPA) except under extreme contamination events. The risk for immunocompromised individuals was 2-3 orders of magnitude greater for the scenarios analysed. The model indicates a reduced risk of infection from tap water that has undergone microfiltration, as this treatment is more robust in the event of high contamination loads. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of watershed protection and the importance of adequate coagulation/flocculation in conventional treatment. The frequency of failure of the treatment process is the most important parameter influencing human risk in conventional treatment. The model developed in this study may be useful for local authorities, government agencies and other stakeholders to evaluate the likely risk of infection given some basic input data on source water and treatment processes used.     

Biological assessment of contaminated land using earthworm biomarkers in support of chemical analysis

Biological indicators can be used to assess polluted sites but their success depends on the availability of suitable assays. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of two earthworm biomarkers, lysosomal membrane stability measured using the neutral red retention assay (NRR-T) and the total immune activity (TIA) assay, that have previously been established as responsive to chemical exposure. Responses of the two assays were measured following in situ exposure to complexly contaminated field soils at three industrial sites as well as urban and rural controls. The industrial sites were contaminated with a range of metal (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, nickel and cobalt) and organic (including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) contaminants, but at concentrations below the 'New Dutch List' Intervention concentrations. Exposed earthworms accumulated both metals and organic compounds at the contaminated sites, indicating that there was significant exposure. No effect on earthworm survival was found at any of the sites. Biomarker measurements, however, indicated significant effects, with lower NRR-T and TIA found in the contaminated soils when compared to the two controls. The results demonstrate that a comparison of soil pollutant concentrations with guideline values would not have unequivocally identified chemical exposure and toxic effect for soil organisms living in these soils. However, the earthworm biomarkers successfully identified significant exposure and biological effects caused by the mixture of chemicals present.     

应用古斯塔夫法评估城中村火灾风险

为了对某市城中村的火灾安全性进行评估,找出影响城中村建筑火灾危险性的主要因素,提出合理、可行的城中村防火方案,首先对城中村进行火灾安全调查,获取火灾风险评估需要的相关资料和基础数据,然后应用古斯塔夫危险度法对城中村不同使用功能的房间进行火灾风险分析并提出防火方案建议。     

Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives

This paper reviews the application of ecological vulnerability analysis in risk assessment and describes new developments in methodology. For generic non-site-specific assessments (e.g. for the requirements of most European directives on dangerous chemicals) risk is characterised just on the basis of the ratio between an effect indicator and an exposure indicator. However, when the actual risk for a specific ecosystem is desired, the concept of ecological vulnerability may be more appropriate. This calls for a change in thinking, from sensitivity at the organism level to vulnerability at higher organization levels, and thus forms the link from laboratory toxicology to field effects at population, community or ecosystem level. To do so, biological and ecological characteristics of the ecosystems under concern are needed to estimate the ecological vulnerability.In this review we describe different vulnerability analysis methods developed for populations (of a single species), communities (consisting of different populations of species) and ecosystems (community and habitat combined). We also give some examples of methods developed for socio-ecological systems. Aspects that all methods share are the use of expert judgment, the input of stakeholders, ranking and mapping of the results, and the qualitative nature of the results.A new general framework is presented to guide future ecological vulnerability analysis. This framework can be used as part of ecological risk assessment, but also in risk management. We conclude that the further quantification of ecological vulnerability is a valuable contribution to vulnerability assessment.     

Determination of the bioaccessibility of chromium in Glasgow soil and the implications for human health risk assessment

The Unified Bioaccessibility Method (UBM), which simulates the fluids of the human gastrointestinal tract, was used to assess the oral bioaccessibility of Cr in 27 Glasgow soils. These included several contaminated with Cr(VI), the most toxic form of Cr, from the past disposal of chromite ore processing residue (COPR). The extraction was employed in conjunction with the subsequent determination of the bioaccessible Cr by ICP-OES and Cr(VI) by the diphenylcarbazide complexation colorimetric procedure. In addition, Cr(III)-containing species were determined by (i) HPLC-ICP-MS and (ii) ICP-OES analysis of gel electrophoretically separated components of colloidal and dissolved fractions from centrifugal ultrafiltration of extracts. Similar analytical procedures were applied to the determination of Cr and its species in extracts of the < 10 μm fraction of soils subjected to a simulated lung fluid test to assess the inhalation bioaccessibility of Cr.The oral bioaccessibility of Cr was typically greater by a factor of 1.5 in the ‘stomach’ (pH ~ 1.2) compared with the ‘stomach + intestine’ (pH ~ 6.3) simulation. On average, excluding two COPR-contaminated soil samples, the oral bioaccessibility (‘stomach’) was 5% of total soil Cr and, overall, similar to the soil Cr(VI) concentration. Chromium(VI) was not detected in the extracts, a consequence of pH- and soil organic matter-mediated reduction in the ‘stomach’ to Cr(III)-containing species, identified as predominantly Cr(III)-humic complexes. Insertion of oral bioaccessible fraction data into the SNIFFER human health risk assessment model identified site-specific assessment criteria (for residential land without plant uptake) that were exceeded by the soil total Cr (3680 mg kg^-1) and Cr(VI) (1485 mg kg^-1) concentration at only the most COPR-Cr(VI)-contaminated location. However, the presence of measurable Cr(VI) in the < 10 μm fraction of the two most highly Cr(VI)-contaminated soils demonstrated that inhalation of Cr(VI)-containing dust remains the most potentially harmful exposure route.     

Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects

The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.     

Ecological risk assessment of lead contamination at rifle and pistol ranges using techniques to account for site characteristics

Spent ammunition at outdoor rifle and pistol (RP) firing ranges creates a characteristic pattern of contamination, whereby small areas surrounding backstop berms exhibit extremely high soil lead (Pb) concentrations. We characterized sources, pathways and uncertainty in contaminant accumulation for receptors at two RP ranges in southeastern Ontario. Based on these results, we performed risk calculations using kriging to estimate risk across "worst-case" species foraging ranges. Range-normalized hazard quotients (RNHQ) were then calculated to estimate risk across each receptor's foraging range. Monte Carlo simulation was used to provide +2 standard deviation (SD) risk estimates, in order to account for uncertainty in risk parameters. The American robin was found to be most at risk (RNHQ=4.10; +2SD=9.24), followed by the short-tailed shrew (RNHQ=0.113; +2SD=0.243) and the eastern cottontail (RNHQ=0.109; +2SD=0.703). Elevated risk for the American robin and short-tailed shrew was due to their small foraging ranges and habit of eating earthworms, which bioaccumulate Pb. Elevated risk for the eastern cottontail was due to vegetation accumulating Pb to levels that were considerably higher than conventional bioaccumulation models would indicate. The results of this study clearly emphasize the importance of specific characteristics of RP ranges, such as contamination patterns, dust accumulation on plant tissues, and contaminant bioaccessibility. These characteristics should be accounted for, not only in performing risk assessments, but also in choosing remedial options and in routine management practices.     

Simulation and health risk assessment of residential particle pollution by coal combustion in China

In China, residential coal combustion has resulted in serious indoor air pollution, and the emitted particulate matters and associated toxic organic compounds are greatly harmful to human health. For example, the high lung cancer mortality in Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province was attributed to inhalation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)-coated particles within the houses. Based on previous investigations, this paper simulated the indoor particle pollution from coal combustion for a typical home in Xuanwei by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), one of the important pollutants from incomplete combustion, was used as a criterion for its strong carcinogenicity in risk assessment. Mechanical exhaust fan was installed in order to reduce the concentration of suspended particles indoors. Based on the simulated results, an engineering-oriented method was demonstrated to be effective in assessing indoor particle pollution by coal combustion and its health effect. Results indicated that the indoor particle pollution was rather serious due to the poor ventilation. Women, who spent more time indoors than men, had higher risk for lung cancer, and the predicted incidence for local people accorded well with previous surveys [Chapman RS, Mumford JL, Harris DB. The epidemiology of lung cancer in Xuanwei, China: current process, issues and research strategies. Archives of Environmental Health 1988;43(2):180–5]. The installation of the exhaust fan turned out to be effective in removing indoor particles since it greatly strengthened airflows and the contaminant removal is significantly improved.     

Adenovirus-associated health risks for recreational activities in a multi-use coastal watershed based on site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment

We used site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the probability of adenovirus illness for three groups of swimmers: adults with primary contact, children with primary contact, and secondary contact regardless of age. Human enteroviruses and adenoviruses were monitored by qPCR in a multi-use watershed and Adenovirus type 40/41 was detected in 11% of 73 samples, ranging from 147 to 4117 genomes per liter. Enterovirus was detected only once (32 genomes per liter). Seven of eight virus detections occurred when E. coli concentrations were below the single sample maximum water quality criterion for contact recreation, and five of eight virus detections occurred when fecal coliforms were below the corresponding criterion. We employed dose-harmonization to convert viral genome measurements to TCID₅₀ values needed for dose–response curves. The three scenarios considered different amounts of water ingestion and Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for the variability associated with the doses. The mean illness risk in children based on adenovirus measurements obtained over 11 months was estimated to be 3.5%, which is below the 3.6% risk considered tolerable by the current United States EPA recreational criteria for gastrointestinal illnesses (GI). The mean risks of GI illness for adults and secondary contact were 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively. These risks changed appreciably when different distributions were fitted to the data as determined by Monte Carlo simulations. In general, risk was at a maximum for the log-logistic distribution and lowest for the hockey stick distribution in all three selected scenarios. Also, under default assumptions, the risk was lowered considerably when assuming that only a small proportion of Adenovirus 40/41 (3%) was as infectious as Adenovirus type 4, compared to the assumption that all genomes were Adenovirus 4. In conclusion, site-specific QMRA on water-borne adenoviruses in this watershed provided a similar level of protection against public health risks as would be obtained by enumeration of fecal indicator bacteria under the new U.S. EPA guidelines.     

Occurrence and risk assessment of nonylphenol and nonylphenol ethoxylates in sewage sludge from different conventional treatment processes

In the present work, the concentrations of the organic pollutants nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and diethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO, respectively) in primary, secondary, mixed, aerobically-digested, anaerobically-digested, dehydrated, compost and lagoon sludge samples from different sludge treatments have been evaluated. Toxicological risk assessment of these compounds in sludge and sludge-amended soil has also been reported. NP, NP1EO and NP2EO were monitored in sludge samples obtained from treatment plants located in Andalusia (south of Spain) based on anaerobic treatments (11 anaerobic-digestion wastewater treatment plants and 3 anaerobic wastewater stabilization ponds) or on aerobic treatments (3 aerobic-digestion wastewater treatment plants, 1 dehydration treatment plant and 2 composting plants). The sum of NP, NP1EO and NP2EO (NPE) concentrations has been evaluated in relation to the limit value of 50 mg/kg set by the European Union Sludge Directive draft published in April 2000 (Working Document on Sludge). In most of the samples, NP was present at higher concentration levels (mean value 88.0 mg/kg dm) than NP1EO (mean value 33.8 mg/kg dm) and NP2EO (mean value 14.0 mg/kg dm). The most contaminated samples were compost, anaerobically-digested sludge, lagoon sludge and aerobically-digested sludge samples, which contained NPE concentrations in the ranges 44-962 mg/kg dm, 8-669 mg/kg dm, 27-319 mg/kg dm and 61-282 mg/kg dm, respectively. Risk quotients, expressed as the ratios between environmental concentrations and the predicted no-effect concentrations, were higher than 1 for NP, NP1EO and NP2EO in the 99%, 92% and 36% of the studied samples, respectively; and higher than 1 in the 86%, 6% and 2%, respectively, after sludge application to soil, leading to a significant ecotoxicological risk mainly due to the presence of NP.