MODEST-An energy-system optimisation model applicable to local utilities and countries

MODEST, an energy-system optimisation model is described. It has been applied to a typical local Swedish electricity and district-heating utility and to the national power system. Present and potential installations and energy flows should be considered and their best combination can be obtained through optimisation. MODEST uses linear programming to minimise the capital and operation costs of energy supply and demand-side management. Seasonal, weekly, and diurnal variations of, for example, demand, costs, and capacities are considered. MODEST may be used to decide which investments to make, the dimensioning of new installations, and the operation of all system components. The municipal utility under study should now expand its heat production using woodchips. Electricity export or nuclear phase-out will probably raise the Swedish electricity prices. In this case, cost minimisation is achieved by introducing combined heat and power (CHP) production in the municipality. Fossil fuels should be used in the cogeneration plant at current taxation levels but biofuels are favourable if higher environmental fees are imposed for CO₂ emissions. Biomass capacity expansion could decrease local CO₂ emissions by 80%. Efficiency improvements for electricity use have robust profitability at high electricity prices. The Swedish electricity demand may be satisfied without nuclear power and fossil fuels through massive biomass use, wind-power supply, and energy conservation.     

Stockholm CHP potential—An opportunity for CO2 reductions?

The potential for combined heat and power (CHP) generation in Stockholm is large and a total heat demand of about 10 TWh/year can be met in a renewed large district heating system. This model of the Stockholm district heating system shows that CHP generation can increase from 8% in 2004 to 15.5% of the total electricity generation in Sweden. Increased electricity costs in recent years have awakened an interest to invest in new electricity generation. Since renewable alternatives are favoured by green certificates, bio-fuelled CHP is most profitable at low electricity prices. Since heat demand in the district heating network sets the limit for possible electricity generation, a CHP alternative with a high electricity to heat ratio will be more profitable at when electricity prices are high. The efficient energy use in CHP has the potential to contribute to reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in Europe, when they are required and the European electricity market is working perfectly. The potential in Stockholm exceeds Sweden's undertakings under the Kyoto protocol and national reduction goals.     

Reduction of electricity use in Swedish industry and its impact on national power supply and European CO2 emissions

Decreased energy use is crucial for achieving sustainable energy solutions. This paper presents current and possible future electricity use in Swedish industry. Non-heavy lines of business (e.g. food, vehicles) that use one-third of the electricity in Swedish industry are analysed in detail. Most electricity is used in the support processes pumping and ventilation, and manufacturing by decomposition. Energy conservation can take place through e.g. more efficient light fittings and switching off ventilation during night and weekends. By energy-carrier switching, electricity used for heat production is replaced by e.g. fuel. Taking technically possible demand-side measures in the whole lines of business, according to energy audits in a set of factories, means a 35% demand reduction. A systems analysis of power production, trade, demand and conservation was made using the MODEST energy system optimisation model, which uses linear programming and considers the time-dependent impact on demand for days, weeks and seasons. Electricity that is replaced by district heating from a combined heat and power (CHP) plant has a dual impact on the electricity system through reduced demand and increased electricity generation. Reduced electricity consumption and enhanced cogeneration in Sweden enables increased electricity export, which displaces coal-fired condensing plants in the European electricity market and helps to reduce European CO₂ emissions. Within the European emission trading system, those electricity conservation measures should be taken that are more cost-efficient than other ways of reducing CO₂ emissions. The demand-side measures turn net electricity imports into net export and reduce annual operation costs and net CO₂ emissions due to covering Swedish electricity demand by 200 million euros and 6 Mtonne, respectively. With estimated electricity conservation in the whole of Swedish industry, net electricity exports would be larger and net CO₂ emissions would be even smaller.     

Examination of energy price policies in Iran for optimal configuration of CHP and CCHP systems based on particle swarm optimization algorithm

The current subsidized energy prices in Iran are proposed to be gradually eliminated over the next few years. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of current and future energy price policies on optimal configuration of combined heat and power (CHP) and combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems in Iran, under the conditions of selling and not-selling electricity to utility. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for minimizing the cost function for owning and operating various CHP and CCHP systems in an industrial dairy unit. The results show that with the estimated future unsubsidized utility prices, CHP and CCHP systems operating with reciprocating engine prime mover have total costs of 5.6 and $2.9×10⁶ over useful life of 20 years, respectively, while both systems have the same capital recovery periods of 1.3 years. However, for the same prime mover and with current subsidized prices, CHP and CCHP systems require 4.9 and 5.2 years for capital recovery, respectively. It is concluded that the current energy price policies hinder the promotion of installing CHP and CCHP systems and, the policy of selling electricity to utility as well as eliminating subsidies are prerequisites to successful widespread utilization of such systems.     

Potential of biomass‐fired combined heat and power plants considering the spatial distribution of biomass supply and heat demand

Combined heat and power (CHP) plants fired by forest wood can significantly contribute to attaining the target of increasing the share of renewable energy production. However, the spatial distribution of biomass supply and of heat demand limits the potentials of CHP production. This article assesses CHP potentials using a mixed integer programming model that optimizes locations of bioenergy plants. Investment costs of district heating infrastructure are modeled as a function of heat demand densities, which can differ substantially. Gasification of biomass in a combined cycle process is assumed as production technology. Some model parameters have a broad range according to a literature review. Monte‐Carlo simulations have therefore been performed to account for model parameter uncertainty in our analysis. The model is applied to assess CHP potentials in Austria. Optimal locations of plants are clustered around big cities in the east of the country. At current power prices, biomass‐based CHP production allows producing around 3% of the total energy demand in Austria. Yet, the heat utilization decreases when CHP production increases due to limited heat demand that is suitable for district heating. Production potentials are most sensitive to biomass costs and power prices. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Primary energy savings through thermal storage in district heating networks

District heating is an efficient way to provide heat to residential, tertiary and industrial users. Heat is often produced by CHP (combined heat and power) plants, usually designed to provide the base thermal load (40-50% of the maximum load) while the rest is provided by boilers. The use of storage tanks would permit to increase the annual operating hours of CHP: heat can be produced when the request is low (for instance during the night), stored and then used when the request is high. The use of boilers results partially reduced and the thermal load diagram is flattered. Depending on the type of CHP plant this may also affect the electricity generation. All these considerations are crucial in the free electricity market.In this paper, a multi-scale model of storage tanks is proposed. This model is particularly suitable to analyze the operation of storage systems during the heating season and to predict their effects on the primary energy consumption and cash flows. The analysis is conducted considering the Turin district heating system as case study. Results show that primary energy consumption can be reduced up to 12%, while total costs can be reduced up to about 5%.     

Optimal operation of coproduction with storage

We discuss the optimal operation of a combined heat and power (CHP) plant with heat storage. The dynamics of the district heating (DH) network are also considered. The decision variables include production of heat and power, supply temperature and operation of heat storage. Heat demand for the DH system and shadow prices for the electrical power system are inputs to the production system. The optimization criterion is minimization of total costs over the planning period. A non-linear optimization model based on real data is formulated and representative case studies are performed.     

Heat accumulators in CHP networks

In a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) network, it is sometimes optimal to install a device for storing heat from one period of time to another. Several possibilities exist. If the electricity demand is high, while at the same time the district heating load is too small to take care of the heat from the CHP plant, it could be optimal to store heat from peak periods and discharge the storage under off-peak. It might also be optimal to store heat during off-peak and use it under the district heating peak load. The storage is then used for decreasing either the district heating demand or for decreasing the electricity load used for space heating. The paper shows how a mixed integer program is developed for use in the optimization process. As a case study, the CHP system of Malmö, Sweden, is used. Further, a sensitivity analysis is elaborated in order to show how the optimal solution will vary due to changes in certain input data.     

Decentralised optimisation of cogeneration in virtual power plants

Within several projects we investigated grid structures and management strategies for active grids with high penetration of renewable energy resources and distributed generation (RES & DG). Those ”smart grids” should be designed and managed by model based methods, which are elaborated within these projects. Cogeneration plants (CHP) can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by locally producing heat and electricity. The integration of thermal storage devices is suitable to get more flexibility for the cogeneration operation. If several power plants are bound to centrally managed clusters, it is called “virtual power plant”. To operate smart grids optimally, new optimisation and model reduction techniques are necessary to get rid with the complexity.There is a great potential for the optimised management of CHPs, which is not yet used. Due to the fact that electrical and thermal demands do not occur simultaneously, a thermally driven CHP cannot supply electrical peak loads when needed. With the usage of thermal storage systems it is possible to decouple electric and thermal production. We developed an optimisation method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP) for the management of local heat supply systems with CHPs, heating boilers and thermal storages. The algorithm allows the production of thermal and electric energy with a maximal benefit. In addition to fuel and maintenance costs it is assumed that the produced electricity of the CHP is sold at dynamic prices. This developed optimisation algorithm was used for an existing local heat system with 5 CHP units of the same type. An analysis of the potential showed that about 10% increase in benefit is possible compared to a typical thermally driven CHP system under current German boundary conditions. The quality of the optimisation result depends on an accurate prognosis of the thermal load which is realised with an empiric formula fitted with measured data by a multiple regression method.The key functionality of a virtual power plant is to increase the value of the produced power by clustering different plants. The first step of the optimisation concerns the local operation of the individual power generator, the second step is to calculate the contribution to the virtual power plant. With small extensions the suggested MILP algorithm can be used for an overall EEX (European Energy Exchange) optimised management of clustered CHP systems in form of the virtual power plant. This algorithm has been used to control cogeneration plants within a distribution grid.     

Cost-effective operating strategy for residential micro-combined heat and power

It is commonly assumed that dispatch of micro-combined heat and power (micro-CHP) should be heat driven, where the unit turns on when a heat load is present, and turns off or modulates when there is little or no heat demand. However, this heat led operating strategy—typical of large-scale CHP applications—may not be economically justified as scale decreases. This article investigates cost-effective operating strategies for three micro-CHP technologies; Stirling engine, gas engine, and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), under reasonable estimates of energy prices. The cost of meeting a typical UK residential energy demand is calculated for hypothetical heat led and electricity led operating strategies, and compared with that of an optimal strategy. Using central estimates of price parameters, and with some thermal energy storage present in the system, it is shown that the least cost operating strategy for the three technologies is to follow heat and electricity load during winter months, rather than using either heat demand or electricity demand as the only dispatch signal. Least cost operating strategy varies between technologies in summer months. In terms of environmental outcomes, the least cost operating strategy does not always result in the lowest carbon dioxide emissions. The results obtained are sensitive to electricity buy-back rate.     

Comparative analyses of seven technologies to facilitate the integration of fluctuating renewable energy sources

An analysis of seven different technologies is presented. The technologies integrate fluctuating renewable energy sources (RES) such as wind power production into the electricity supply, and the Danish energy system is used as a case. Comprehensive hour-by-hour energy system analyses are conducted of a complete system meeting electricity, heat and transport demands, and including RES, power plants, and combined heat and power production (CHP) for district heating and transport technologies. In conclusion, the most fuel-efficient and least-cost technologies are identified through energy system and feasibility analyses. Large-scale heat pumps prove to be especially promising as they efficiently reduce the production of excess electricity. Flexible electricity demand and electric boilers are low-cost solutions, but their improvement of fuel efficiency is rather limited. Battery electric vehicles constitute the most promising transport integration technology compared with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The costs of integrating RES with electrolysers for HFCVs, CHP and micro fuel cell CHP are reduced significantly with more than 50% of RES.     

Conditions for aggregation of CHP plants in the UK electricity market and exploration of plant size

Combined heat and power (CHP) plants with thermal stores may be suitable for sustainable energy production and the accommodation of fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the moment, in the UK, only a few CHP plants have thermal stores. Previous research has shown that thermal stores can improve the economics of CHP plants in the UK under the current market conditions. However, currently, it is only beneficial for CHP plants to sell their electricity to a third party, a Licensed Electricity Supplier, rather than to sell it directly to the power exchange market at prices which are much higher. If CHP plants aggregate, direct access to the power exchange market can become economically viable hence there is the possibility that thermal stores could further improve the economics of CHP plants under an aggregated electricity dispatch. This work firstly explains the conditions under which such plants could aggregate and act as a large power plant in the UK market, and secondly explores the most economic-size of gas engine and thermal store, in the case of aggregation, using energyPRO software and Excel spreadsheets. The work suggests that direct access to the power exchange market can improve the economics of the CHP plants. The highest Net Present Value (NPV), without heat dissipation, for a CHP plant exporting its electricity to the grid for a community heating load of 20 GW h, is more than £5 m, and is obtained for a 6 MW engine with a 28.2 MW h (900 m³) thermal store. The research suggests that such high electricity prices could make even larger plants more profitable than that; however, this can happen only if some of the produced heat is dissipated.     

Primary energy and economic analysis of combined heating, cooling and power systems

In this paper, the primary energy consumption and the economic viability of a combined heating, cooling and power (CHCP) system are derived. The focus is on small-scale applications in the range below 100 kW_H/70 kW_C/58 kW_el. CHCP is discussed between the boundaries of combined heating and power (CHP) and combined cooling and power (CCP) using a lumped parameter model. The method used is independent of a specific load profile for a building; only the full-load hours for heating and cooling are needed to predict the economic viability. German data is used for the example. A sensitivity analysis reveals the parameters with the highest impact on the primary energy consumption and the energy costs. The primary energy factors, the energy prices and the electric efficiency of the CHP are the dominating parameters. Increasing electricity prices favour the introduction of CHP and CHCP systems whereas increasing gas prices inhibit it. The energy cost analysis is extended to an economic analysis taking maintenance and investment costs into account. One result of this paper is a simple diagram which shows how many annual operation hours are needed for heating and cooling with CHCP to be more economical than a reference system.     

Large-scale integration of wind power into different energy systems

The paper presents the ability of different energy systems and regulation strategies to integrate wind power. The ability is expressed by the following three factors: the degree of electricity excess production caused by fluctuations in wind and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) heat demands, the ability to utilise wind power to reduce CO₂ emission in the system, and the ability to benefit from exchange of electricity on the market. Energy systems and regulation strategies are analysed in the range of a wind power input from 0 to 100% of the electricity demand. Based on the Danish energy system, in which 50% of the electricity demand is produced in CHP, a number of future energy systems with CO₂ reduction potentials are analysed, i.e. systems with more CHP, systems using electricity for transportation (battery or hydrogen vehicles) and systems with fuel-cell technologies. For the present and such potential future energy systems different regulation strategies have been analysed, i.e. the inclusion of small CHP plants into the regulation task of electricity balancing and ancillary grid stability services and investments in electric heating, heat pumps and heat storage capacity. The results of the analyses make it possible to compare short-term and long-term potentials of different strategies of large-scale integration of wind power.     

Resource-effective systems achieved through changes in energy supply and industrial use: The Volvo–Skövde case

The result presented in this paper shows that the Volvo plant can decrease its electricity use by 44% by making the use of electricity more efficient and converting from oil and electricity to district heating for hot tap-water, space heating and cooling. The increased demand of district heating makes investing in a new planned CHP and cooperation between the Volvo plant and the local energy utility production cost fall by 46% at current unit electricity price and by 64% when calculating with a European unit electricity price and investment in an optimised CHP system instead of the planned plant. The study furthermore shows that the global emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon-dioxide will be reduced by 350% a year if the two energy-supply measures are taken and the electricity unit prices are at a European level.     

European perspective on absorption cooling in a combined heat and power system – A case study of energy utility and industries in Sweden

Mankind is facing an escalating threat of global warming and there is increasing evidence that this is due to human activity and increased emissions of carbon dioxide. Converting from vapour compression chillers to absorption chillers in a combined heat and power (CHP) system is a measure towards sustainability as electricity consumption is replaced with electricity generation. This electricity produced in Swedish CHP-system will substitute marginally produced electricity and as result lower global emissions of carbon dioxide. The use of absorption chillers is limited in Sweden but the conditions are in fact most favourable. Rising demand of cooling and increasing electricity prices in combination with a surplus of heat during the summer in CHP system makes heat driven cooling extremely interesting in Sweden. In this paper we analyse the most cost-effective technology for cooling by comparing vapour compression chillers with heat driven absorption cooling for a local energy utility with a district cooling network and for industries in a Swedish municipality with CHP. Whilst this case is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance showing that when considering higher European electricity prices, and when natural gas is introduced, absorption cooling is the most cost-effective solution for both industries and for the energy supplier. This will result in a resource effective energy system with a possibility to reduce global emissions of CO₂ with 80%, a 300% lower system cost, and a 170% reduction of the cost of producing cooling due to revenues from electricity production. The results also show that, with these prerequisites, a decrease in COP of the absorption chillers will not have a negative impact on the cost-effectiveness of the system, due to increased electricity production.     

基于负荷侧响应的含储热热电联产的风电消纳模型

为了有效减少弃风,提高风电消纳能力,该文从负荷侧出发,通过峰谷分时电价策略引导用户的用电方式,达到削峰填谷,优化负荷曲线的目的。同时,在传统热电联产机组中应用大容量储热装置,通过对储热环节的控制,解耦“以热定电”约束,提高系统调节能力。以系统煤耗量最低为目标,构建包含储热的热电联产机组与风电联合出力优化调度模型。该模型考虑系统中的含储热热电联产机组运行成本,同时兼顾储热、负荷侧响应与热电平衡的相关约束等因素,采用基于模拟退火的粒子群算法对模型进行求解,并利用算例比较不同模式下的结果,验证了模型的有效性。     

Application of combined heat-and-power and absorption cooling in a supermarket

In recent years, it has become standard practice to consider Combined Heat-and-Power (CHP) systems for commercial buildings. CHP schemes are used, because they are an efficient means of power generation. Unlike conventional power stations, they produce electricity locally and thus minimise the distribution losses, however, they also utilise the waste heat from the generation process. In applications where there is a combined heating and electricity requirement, a very efficient means of energy production is achieved compared to the conventional methods of providing heating and electricity. With new initiatives from the UK government on reduced energy-use, energy-efficient systems such as CHP have been considered for new applications. This paper summarises the results of an investigation into the viability of CHP systems in supermarkets. The viability of conventional CHP has been theoretically investigated using a mathematical model of a typical supermarket. This has demonstrated that a conventional CHP system may be practically applied. It has also been shown that compared to the traditional supermarket design, the proposed CHP system will use slightly less primary energy and the running costs will be significantly reduced. An attractive payback period of approximately 4 years has been calculated. Despite these advantages a considerable quantity of heat is rejected to atmosphere with this system and this is because the configuration utilises the heat mainly for space heating which is only required for part of the year. To increase the utilisation time, a novel CHP/absorption system has been investigated. This configuration provides a continuous demand for the waste heat, which is used to drive an absorption chiller that refrigerates propylene glycol to −10°C for cooling the chilled-food cabinets. The results show this concept to be theoretically practical. The system has also been shown to be extremely efficient, with primary energy savings of approximately 20%, when compared to traditional supermarket designs and this would result in significant revenue cost savings as well as environmental benefits. Based upon these savings a payback period for this system of approximately 5 years has been demonstrated.     

The case for combined heat and power in the U.K.

Most analyses of the potential for combined heat and power (CHP) in parallel with a central electricity generating industry value the electrical output by means of an assessment of the marginal benefit to the central supply of units and capacity provided by the local system. This approach has defects, especially when applied to a growing system with a choice of investments. This paper suggests an alternative approach without these defects. It concludes that CHP is extremely attractive if load factors on the local plant are high, as in industry. This conclusion is insensitive to future costs of fuel and plant. If there were enough sites of this nature then there would be no case for CHP from district heating loads. If, however, high-load-factor sites are not available then CHP from district heating could be a second best alternative. the paper investigates this hypothesis and concludes that this may be so, but that in this case the answer is very sensitive to future costs of fuel and plant.