Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics

Water Resources Management - System dynamics (SD) have been used in water resources management for many years. However, water resources management using SD is usually in one direction, up to down...     

Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach

The water resource issue is one of the most significant problemsthat the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order toevaluate the sustainability of the water resource system inthe study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approachhas been used to develop a model for the water resourcessystem in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to asthe Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It hasbeen developed for simulating a water resource system andcapturing the dynamic character of the main elements affectingwater demand and supply in the study area. For thebusiness-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in theYellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5billion m³ for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing andpotential water supplies from surface water, aquifers andtreated waste-water are estimated, and potential waterdemands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses areprojected. Various water supply and demand scenarios havethen been explored by changing variables and parameters,and the sustainability index of the water supply system isestimated for different sub-regions over various periods.     

面向对象的ETM+影像分割尺度与水体信息提取

采用面向对象的影像提取方法,以ETM+影像作为数据源进行水体提取。首先对影像进行分割,获取影像对象,分割时探究提取水体时影像的最优分割尺度;然后对分割生成的影像对象运用ENVIFX工具建立规则集并对水体进行提取。对比面向对象的方法和传统最大似然分类方法的水体提取结果表明:面向对象方法提取水体的总体精度、Kappa系数、生产者精度、用户精度均明显高于传统方法。     

Analysis of Irrigation Needs Using an Approach Based on a Bivariate Copula Methodology

The problem of drought probability has been investigated by several authors, who have usually analysed droughts using various drought indices such as the Standard Precipitation Index. Various aspects of time series of such indices (intensity, severity and duration) were investigated by several authors using a copula method. Because such analysis is based on only one basic climatic variable, this paper addresses a different approach, i.e., joint analysis of the severity and duration of the most demanding potential annual irrigation periods by a bivariate copula method. Characteristics of these periods are derived from both temperature and precipitation. Maximum annual duration of the potential irrigation period and corresponding rainfall deficit were inferred from these basic variables as inputs to two-dimensional probability analysis by the copula method, because this offers more direct answers to questions of irrigation needs. Results indicate the suitability of the proposed method for analysis of irrigation needs, with greater benefits than the typical one-dimensional analysis of individual climatic variables. A case study for testing the method was done for southwestern Slovakia, for which the frequency of irrigation needs was estimated. Example results indicate that every second year, a one-month period can be expected in which temperatures are >25^°C and there is a moisture deficit of ～30 mm. Even more significant periods of drought can be expected, for example, with a 5 or 10-year return period. These phenomena significantly damage agriculture yields, so requirements for irrigation structures in the study area are indicated by the proposed method.     

Investigation of Topographical Controls on the Groundwater Potential Zone in a Hilly Watershed Using a Geospatial and Geophysical Approach

Water Resources Management - Evaluation of groundwater potential zone (GWPZ) in hilly regions is challenging due to its steep slopes, runoff, erosion, landslides, and changing land use patterns....     

基于遥感和GIS的流域社会经济数据空间化方法研究

人口和社会经济数据及其空间分布,在资源、环境及自然灾害评估中的重要性已被广泛认知。把遥感和GIS技术相结合,是探讨解决社会经济统计数据空间化的重要思路。以东江流域为例,以多期人口、GDP、土地利用数据为基础,建立东江流域人口与土地利用、GDP和土地利用的多元线性回归模型;以土地利用数据和100 m×100 m网格数据为基础,构建东江流域人口和GDP空间分布约束力指标图层;然后结合统计模型和面积内插,实现了东江流域2009年人口、GDP统计数据的空间化。在县域空间尺度上对模拟结果进行了验证,与同尺度研究工作进行了对比,结果显示模拟得到的人口和GDP空间分布数据,与同尺度的研究工作处于同一精度或者略高的精度水平,表明该方法是一种进行流域社会经济数据空间化处理的有效方法。     

Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling

Urmia Lake in Iran is the second largest saline lake in the world. This ecosystem is the home for different species. Due to various socio-economical and ecological criteria, Urmia Lake has important role in the Northwestern part of the country but it has faced many problems in recent years. Because of droughts, overuse of surface water resources and dam constructions, water level has decreased in such a way that one quarter of the lake has changed to saline area in the last 10 years. The purpose of this research is to determine the main factors which reduce the lake’s water level. To this end, a simulation model, based on system dynamics method, is developed for the Urmia Lake basin to estimate the lake’s level. After successful verification of the model, results show that (among the proposed factors) changes in inflows due to the climate change and overuse of surface water resources is the main factor for 65% of the effect, constructing four dams is responsible for 25% of the problem, and less precipitation on lake has 10% effect on decreasing the lake’s level in the recent years. In the future, the model also can be used by managers as a decision support system to find the effects of building new dams or other infrastructures.     

Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling

Water Resources Management - The North China Plain (NCP) has been affected by severe water scarcity over the past several decades. To address this issue, several water management plans have already...     

Vegetation Buffer Strips Design Using an Optimization Approach for Non-Point Source Pollutant Control of an Agricultural Watershed

Management of agriculture-induced water quality problems requires an integrated approach involving selection of the most suitable and economical Best Management Practices (BMP). Vegetation Buffer Strips (VBS), one of the commonly used off-field structural BMPs, when designed and placed correctly, can significantly improve the water quality. However, VBS takes up agricultural land used for crop production and the implementation/maintenance costs are of concern. Currently, the standards for design of VBS (location and width) are normally set on field study basis, and they do not involve science-based approach to guarantee their efficiency under regional variations, geological and economical conditions. The present study proposes a new approach which integrates computational modeling of watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to design a cost effective VBSs in a watershed. The watershed model AnnAGNPS (Annual AGricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model) and channel network model CCHE1D (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering One(1) Dimensional Model) are linked together to simulate the sediment/pollutant transport processes. Based on the computational results, a multi-objective function is set up, which aims to minimize soil losses, nutrient concentrations as well as total costs associated with installation and maintenance of VBS, while the production profits from agriculture production are being maximized. The solution procedure involves the use of iterative Tabu Search (TS) algorithm to flip VBS design parameters (switching from one alternative to another). The search for the optimal solution follows an iterative procedure. An illustrative case study of USDA’s Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in Northern Mississippi is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimized design of VBS using an integrated approach at the watershed level can provide efficient and cost-effective conservation of the environmental quality by taking into account productivity and profitability.     

Streamflow Modeling in a Highly Managed Mountainous Glacier Watershed Using SWAT: The Upper Rhone River Watershed Case in Switzerland

Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of irregular topography and complex hydrological processes. Rates of change in precipitation and temperature with respect to elevation often limit the ability to reproduce stream runoff by hydrological models. Anthropogenic influence, such as water transfers in high altitude hydropower reservoirs increases the difficulty in modeling since the natural flow regime is altered by long term storage of water in the reservoirs. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for simulating streamflow in the upper Rhone watershed located in the south western part of Switzerland. The catchment area covers 5220 km², where most of the land cover is dominated by forest and 14 % is glacier. Streamflow calibration was done at daily time steps for the period of 2001–2005, and validated for 2006–2010. Two different approaches were used for simulating snow and glacier melt process, namely the temperature index approach with and without elevation bands. The hydropower network was implemented based on the intake points that form part of the inter-reservoir network. Subbasins were grouped into two major categories with glaciers and without glaciers for simulating snow and glacier melt processes. Model performance was evaluated both visually and statistically where a good relation between observed and simulated discharge was found. Our study suggests that a proper configuration of the network leads to better model performance despite the complexity that arises for water transaction. Implementing elevation bands generates better results than without elevation bands. Results show that considering all the complexity arising from natural variability and anthropogenic influences, SWAT performs well in simulating runoff in the upper Rhone watershed. Findings from this study can be applicable for high elevation snow and glacier dominated catchments with similar hydro-physiographic constraints.     

A Scenario-Based Management of Water Resources and Supply Systems Using a Combined System Dynamics and Compromise Programming Approach

Water Resources Management - Long-term sustainability in water supply systems is a major challenge due to water resources depletion, climate change and population growth. This paper presents a...     

Short-Term Predictions of Hydrological Events on an Urbanized Watershed Using Supervised Classification

Many tasks of operational watershed management at the local level require stream flow predictions delivered to decision makers in a timely manner. In highly urbanized watersheds with an impermeable surface, stormwater runoff can cause rapid increases in water levels in streams leading to flood and even flash flood events. Usually, such rapid increases in water flow characteristics are predicted by process-based models with high levels of uncertainty. In this study, the prediction of magnitudes of the stream hydrological characteristics is replaced by the forecasting of an event (i.e., flood or no-flood) using data collected by stream and rain gauges at the watershed. The proposed approach is based on a black box model developed as an ensemble of classifiers generated by independent inducers to predict the class of a future hydrological event in a small highly urbanized watershed. Eight inducers were investigated in the phase space reconstructed from observation data using time-delay embedding extended to multiple observation sites. Five inducers were selected for the ensemble, where the final decision is made by majority vote. The developed model generates 45-minute and hourly predictions of high-flow events with more than 80 % precision – a threshold used in operational flood management. Model site-specific parameterization is replaced by the training step using observation data on water levels and precipitation which are collected at 15-minute intervals and are readily available. The proposed approach to developing a prediction tool can be used by local authorities as one of the methods for flood management.     

Groundwater Modeling Under Variable Operating Conditions Using SWAT,MODFLOW and MT3DMS: a Catchment Scale Approach to Water Resources Management

This paper presents an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW) and modular 3-dimensional multi-species transport (MT3DMS) models capable of predicting a groundwater system response, in terms of flow and salt concentrations, to current and future development conditions. SWAT, a semi-distributed hydrologic model, estimates the spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater recharge rates. These rates are then input to MODFLOW using an interface module developed that maps the HRU-based spatial resolution of SWAT outflows into the cell-based spatial structure of inputs to MODFLOW and MT3DMS. The integrated SWAT-MODFLOW-MT3DMS model is used in modeling Dehloran aquifer system located in the arid western region of Iran, experiencing changes in land-use, irrigation system and pumping locations and loads. The results illustrate the significance of the developed integrated modeling tool in quantifying the impact of changes in land and surface water resources on its subsurface water system.     

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge from the Rainfall and Irrigation in an Arid Environment Using Inverse Modeling Approach and RS

Quantifying recharge from agricultural areas is important to sustain long-term groundwater use, make intelligent groundwater allocation decisions, and develop on-farm water management strategies. The scarcity of data in many arid regions, especially in the Middle East, has necessitated the use of combined mathematical models and field observations to estimate groundwater recharge. This study was designed to assess the recharge contribution to groundwater from rainfall and irrigation return flow in the Mosian plain, west of Iran. The Inverse modeling approach and remote sensing technology (RS) were used to quantify the groundwater recharge. The recharge for steady–state conditions was estimated using the Recharge Package of MODFLOW. The land-use map for the research area was produced using remote sensing and satellite images technology. According to results, groundwater recharge from the rainfall and irrigation return flow was at the rate of 0.15 mm/day. The recharge to the groundwater from rainfall was about 0.08 mm/day (10.8 % of total rainfall). The average of groundwater recharge contribution in the study area was about 0.39 mm/day that include 15.2 % of the total water used in the irrigated fields. We can conclude that irrigation water is the most important resource of groundwater recharge in this area, consequently, it should be integrated into relevant hydrological models as the main source of groundwater recharge.     

基于系统动力学的某市水环境承载力动态变化研究

在对某市社会、经济、环境系统分析的基础上,建立了该市的水环境承载力系统动力学模型,针对目前该市水环境存在的问题提出了9种水环境保护模拟方案。通过对各个方案下水环境承载力的动态变化分析比较,确定出了符合该市社会经济可持续发展要求的最优方案,从而为该市走可持续发展道路提供了科学的决策依据。     

A Socioeconomic Valuation of an Irrigation System Project Based on Real Option Analysis Approach

Traditional net present value methods used to evaluate potential projects make no allowance for flexibility and assume a static environment. The concept of real options has extended into irrigation systems to model design flexibility in the realistically uncertain environment. In particular, this article extends the evaluation techniques of an irrigation dam by combining the real options approach along with the traditional on (Discount Cash Flow). However, whereas financial options are well-defined traded contracts, real options in irrigation systems are a priori undefined, complex and interdependent. Moreover, irrigation systems involve many more options than designers could consider. Therefore designers need to identify the real options most likely to offer good flexibility and the most value. This paper demonstrates the ease that irrigation systems economic analysis with risk analysis and real options can be valued by simulation software that is readily available to owners of personal computers. Sequentially, Discount Cash Flow analysis accompanied with real options approach facilitates decision making and encourages more sophisticated and realistic economic analysis of irrigation systems.     

Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Relationship Modeling using Different Methods in a Forested Watershed

The daily rainfall-runoff relationship in an experimental watershed was modeled using a statistical method and an artificial neural network method. The estimations were examined and a performance evaluation was done. It was seen that the ANN method, FFBP (Feed Forward Back Propagation), provided closer flow estimations reproducing the shape of the observed hydrograph more realistic. The superiority of FFBP was reflected in the performance evaluation criteria. The extreme flows, i.e., high and low flows, were relatively better approximated by FFBP indicating its promise as a useful tool for hydrologic studies such as flood modeling. The Rational Method was also used, as a conventional tool, to predict the maximum discharge for selected return periods. It was found to be realistic for the forested watershed under consideration when the C coefficient was taken as 0.20 for the 10-year period.

     

水库调洪演算的SD模拟

基于SD理论建立了水库调洪演算的SD模型,并通过实例模拟了水库调洪过程。结果表明:SD模型可避免求解水库调洪演算方程组的复杂过程,可准确、高效地模拟水库调洪运行的过程。     

基于SWAT模型的中尺度流域径流变化过程模拟

采用黄土丘陵沟壑区耤河流域1962—2008年逐日水文气象数据,基于GIS空间分析功能建立空间和属性数据库,利用SWAT模型对该流域过去47 a的径流变化过程进行了模拟与验证。结果表明:对于年、月尺度径流的校准与验证,模拟值和实测值变化趋势保持一致,但模拟值总体上均偏大;校准期年均流量模拟值的相对误差、与实测值的复相关系数、效率系数分别为15.3%、0.638、0.720,验证期分别为26.0%、0.569、0.511,可见验证期的模拟效果不如校准期的;月均流量也有类似的模拟效果,但不如年均流量模拟效果好。