国内石油公司在天然气发电领域应有所作为

从我国电力消费逐年大幅增加,远大于能源消费增幅,我国电力企业长期以来具有收益稳定、持续盈利能力强的特点等几方面分析了国内石油公司参与天然气发电业务的必要性。指出,在我国电力需求增长潜力巨大、燃气发电有很大潜力、以及大规模开发和利用天然气资源的大好形势下,国内石油公司作为天然气供应者和电力消费大户,应借鉴国际石油公司的经验,积极主动地培育天然气发电市场,通过优化资源配置、与电力公司结成天然气利用同盟军、争取得到更多的政策支持等措施,推进天然气发电项目的落实,促进我国天然气发电事业的发展。     

Natural gas‐based transportation in the USA: economic evaluation and policy implications based on MARKAL modeling

The recent divergence in domestic energy costs between oil and natural gas drives an investigation of the potential for further demand‐side utilization of natural gas in the USA. An economic assessment of the US transportation sector was conducted with a focus on the penetration of technologies that use natural gas as a fuel. Bottom‐up modeling of the US energy system using the market allocation framework enabled estimation of the optimal technology mix in both the light‐duty and heavy‐duty vehicle segments, over a 40‐year time horizon, under various scenarios of technical learning rates and natural gas prices. A modified functional form of Moore's law was developed and anchored to municipal transit bus data, to represent technical learning with regard to natural gas vehicle costs. Modeling results suggest that the present levels of natural gas vehicle penetration are suboptimal and a number of market failures were identified, which are most likely to propagate under‐adoption into the foreseeable future. Some policy guidelines, aimed at the federal level, were outlined as potential responses to the market failures discussed herein. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural gas demand in Turkey

On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.     

俄罗斯天然气勘探开发及出口贸易进展浅析

俄罗斯是世界上最主要的天然气生产国和出口贸易国,2012年其天然气产量6545×10^8m3,出口贸易量1787×10^8m3。俄罗斯天然气资源丰富,近20年来一直保持100％的天然气储量替代率,2005年以来新增储量与总产量基本持平。俄天然气资源主要集中在西西伯利亚、东西伯利亚、远东等地域,合计占资源总量的85％。俄气公司、卢克石油公司、俄油公司、诺瓦泰克公司是俄罗斯主要的天然气生产商,其中俄气公司生产的天然气占俄总产量的80％以上。俄罗斯还是世界上最大的管道天然气出口国,截至2011年底,输气管道总长度达16．47×104km。为了减少过境国带来的天然气出口不稳定性,今后俄出口管道建设主要考虑不经过中转国,直接向出口贸易国供气。欧洲是俄天然气出口的主要市场,约占其天然气出口量的80％,其次是独联体等国家,今后俄将加大向亚太市场的出口量。俄天然气对外出口贸易价格一般根据国际天然气市场价格和石油价格来确定,对独联体及波罗的海三国的销售价格与欧洲其他国家差距较大。俄罗斯天然气发展长期规划的制定,为世界能源市场天然气多元合作带来了新的机遇。     

加速发展天然气产业是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一

加速发展天然气产业应是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一。由非常规天然气带动的天然气"革命"为世界天然气产业发展创造了有利的资源条件,全球天然气过剩,价格下降。目前我国天然气在一次能源结构中所占的比例仍然过低,只达到世界水平的1/4左右,而提升天然气的消费比例与提高综合能效具有正相关关系。综合考虑,"十二五"末我国天然气在一次能源消费中的比例应达到12%～15%,甚至更多一些。21世纪以来我国常规天然气储产量增长迅速,新增探明天然气储量已连续7年保持在5000×108m3以上。预计2020年我国天然气年产量将达到2000×108m3,2030年前后可达到2500×108～3000×108m3,加上从国外进口的天然气(包括沿海进口的LNG)和煤制气的发展,天然气消费总量将达4500×108m3,占国内一次能源消费比重可望有一个大幅度的提升。"十二五"期间我国煤层气开采可望首先获得突破性进展,而页岩气正处于勘探开发起步的关键时期,国家在加强领导的同时要加大扶持力度。天然气储运工程对于天然气产业和市场的发展非常重要,"十二五"期间成立中国天然气管道总公司的条件已经成熟。     

Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias

Over the last twenty years, the consumption of natural gas in Korea has increased dramatically. This increase has mainly resulted from the rise of consumption in the residential sector. The main objective of the study is to estimate households’ demand function for natural gas by applying a sample selection model using data from a survey of households in Seoul. The results show that there exists a selection bias in the sample and that failure to correct for sample selection bias distorts the mean estimate, of the demand for natural gas, downward by 48.1%. In addition, according to the estimation results, the size of the house, the dummy variable for dwelling in an apartment, the dummy variable for having a bed in an inner room, and the household’s income all have positive relationships with the demand for natural gas. On the other hand, the size of the family and the price of gas negatively contribute to the demand for natural gas.     

The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing,Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO₂ emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use.     

Prospects of the European gas market

This paper discusses prospects for increased consumption of natural gas within the European Union (EU) up to 2030. Particular emphasis is on the power generation sector, where the main growth in demand is expected to occur, on supply and infrastructural constraints and on future price of natural gas.     

A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call “traders”, pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine.     

加快我国天然气工业发展的有关问题

天然气是世界公认的最清洁能源。全球天然气资源丰富,但资源的分布却不均衡。近10年,天然气可采储量和产量迅速增长。随着天然气管线建设和LNG压缩技术的提高,预计2020年,天然气消费将超过石油,成为世界第一大能源。我国天然气资源较为丰富,由于基础设施滞后和市场开发等多种原因,储量动用率低。我国有必要抓住时机,充分利用国内外两种资源,加快天然气发展。     

2001年世界天然气市场回顾及未来展望

据BPAmoco最新出版的《BPAmocoStatisticalReviewofWorldenergy》显示,2001年世界天然气储量增长3.3%。世界天然气产量和消费量增长幅度趋缓,其中天然气产量增长了1.7%,低于1990年以来年均1.9%的增长幅度;消费量增长0.3%,低于1990年以来年均1.8%增长幅度。北美地区由于受经济下滑以及较高的气价的影响,2001年天然气消费量下降4.9%,而世界其它地区天然气消费量均有不同程度增长。据美国能源信息署预测,在未来一次能源消费中天然气将是增长最快的,21世纪将是天然气的世纪。     

Natural gas vehicles: An option for Europe

In Europe natural gas vehicles play a minor role. A decisive reason for this is the dependence of most European countries from gas imports. Except for Italy, there is no tradition to use natural gas as fuel. In addition, there is a lack of infrastructure (e.g. fuelling stations). In contrast to Europe, in Latin American and Asian countries natural gas vehicles are widespread. Some countries foster natural gas vehicles because they have own gas resources. Many countries must reduce the high air pollution in big cities. Environmental reasons are the main motive for the use of natural gas vehicles in Europe. In last years, high oil prices stimulated the use of natural gas as fuel. European governments have developed incentives (e.g. tax reductions) to foster natural gas vehicles. However, the focus is on hybrid technology and the electric car, which, however, need further technical improvement. In contrast, the use of natural gas in conventional engines is technically mature. Additional gas imports can be avoided by further improvements of energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy. In sum, the market penetration of natural gas as fuel should be promoted in Europe.     

Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union,the Middle East and Northern Africa

A steady increase of natural gas demand can be observed in Europe over the last decades. Due to the European obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the trend toward natural gas is expected to continue in the future. The increased consumption is faced by comparably low indigenous gas resources within Europe, so that the dependency of Europe on gas imports from abroad will rise in the future. In addition to the existing supply sources Russia and Algeria, gas resources from the Middle East and the Caspian and the Central Asian regions may be supply options to cover Europe's gas demand in the future. Against this background, possible natural gas supply options as well as the transport infrastructure to and within Europe are discussed regarding their technical capacity and their costs. With the help of a cost-minimization model of the European gas supply system, the gas flows and the infrastructure capacity development up to the year 2030 are analyzed. In a sensitivity analysis, the impacts of demand variations on the choice of supply sources are studied.     

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long–short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough.     

Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market

Rising import dependency, increasing market liberalization and cross-border trade and security of supply fears facilitate investments in natural gas supply infrastructures in Europe. In order to ensure an efficient allocation of capital resources, it is important to identify congestion in the existing system and investment requirements based on economic principles. This paper first outlines an analytical framework for the identification of bottlenecks and the evaluation of transport capacities and the cost of congestion based on nodal prices. Secondly, an infrastructure model of the European gas market with high temporal and spatial granularity which exhibits the characteristics of the theoretical model is introduced. Parameterizing the model with the existing infrastructure and applying a demand and supply scenario for the year 2015, congestion mark-ups between countries in Europe are estimated. This approach indicates potential bottlenecks which might arise within the next five years and quantifies their economic costs. With only some temporary congestion, physical market integration is found to be high in Western Europe. In Eastern Europe, severe bottlenecks are identified and discussed. Implications for efficient investment decisions arising from the findings are examined in the context of the theoretical considerations.     

对加快中国天然气产业发展的战略分析

目前中国天然气产业已步入快速发展时期,但从基础设施完善程度、市场规模、管理水平和资金实力等方面综合来看,中国天然气产业仍然处于初步发展阶段,仍存在一系列问题。分析了中国天然气市场现状和主要制约瓶颈问题,提出了一系列加快中国天然气产业发展的可行性战略措施。     

基于改进两部制的天然气管输定价研究

近年来我国部分城市相继出现天然气供应紧张局面,天然气短缺暴露了现行天然气定价机制的不足.研究科学合理的天然气管输定价方法,对于完善我国天然气定价机制,确定合理的天然气价格具有十分重要的作用.目前,我国主要采取“老线老价、新线新价”的天然气管输定价方法.对于“老线老价”,天然气管输定价参照铁路运输定价方法具有很大的不科学性.“新线新价”虽然在很大程度上解决了过去管道运输定价机制套用铁路运价所带来的问题,但也存在许多不足,如无法真实反映价值、没有考虑到天然气工业的发展阶段、无法反映用户结构的多样性、没有反映出供求关系以及无法起到削峰填谷的作用等.目前我国受管制行业广泛采用两部制定价方法,这虽然有利于实现经济福利最大化,但它是以固定费用的征收不会使消费者退出消费市场为前提的,没有考虑不同消费者的价格承受能力,也没有考虑需求量的波动,因此在原有两部制的基础上做出改进,使其更加科学合理.     

The prospects for liquefied natural gas development in the US

The objective of our paper is to analyze the prospects for LNG development in the US. In particular, we discuss LNG investment projects with respect to natural gas supply and demand, existing transmission infrastructure, and competing pipeline projects. At the same time potential competition between natural gas and coal in power generation is taken into account. We conclude that in the mid-term, LNG will assume an essential role in meeting US demand because of stagnating and declining domestic production in North America accompanied by an expected increase in demand for natural gas. Additional net imports will be required in the western US (mainly southern California), the Southeast, and in the Northeast—three areas of the nation that lack adequate supply. When accounting for the current status of existing natural gas infrastructure and forthcoming investments, we conclude that there should be little concern about sufficient investment incentives and supply security in the US competitive natural gas market.     

世界天然气格局的变化和中国的机遇

近年来世界天然气产、销和国际贸易格局发生了重大变化。在经济衰退的影响下,2009年世界天然气年产量和消费量出现2.41%和2.34%的下降;但国际贸易量却持续增长,2007～2009年年均增长率6.28%,其中LNG贸易有更快的发展,其灵活的销售策略和降低现货价在许多地区挤占了管输出口的市场份额。在经济衰退的恢复期和/或天然气供应充足或过剩时期气与煤的比价较为接近,这为气代煤创造了条件。新兴经济体,特别是中国、印度及周围的东亚、南亚地区占世界天然气消费量的份额日趋加大。1999～2009年的10年间,中国天然气产量、消费量年均增长率分别为12.95%和13.91%,印度分别为4.59%和7.53%。金融危机促进了世界经济中心向东亚转移,天然气发展更趋均衡、多中心化的进程将更快。亚太地区,特别是中国、印度的天然气生产、消费和国际贸易在今后也将获得更快的发展。页岩气产量的持续快速增长不仅影响着近年来的天然气国际贸易,亦将对世界天然气格局产生更深远的影响。这些为中国天然气大发展带来了新机遇。按照框架性预测的两个方案,预计2015年中国天然气消费量将分别约为2400×108m3和2500×108m3,需国内供应皆为1500×108m3,进口分别为900×108m3和1000×108m3。2015年国内常规气层气产量要达到1300×108m3或1350×108m3,两种情况下所对应的2010～2015年年均增长率分别为9.81%和9.12%。除管输进口以外,2015年需要有600×108～800×108m3的LNG进口。从国内对策来讲,除了加强勘探开发,特别要关注天然气上中下游的协调发展和LNG系统工程的提前部署。关于进口,应重视天然气进口的广义多元化,在进口采买中将多种长期合同、意向性协议和短期现货交易灵活结合起来;加强国际合作;建设完整的配套体系。     

天然气下游市场和终端用户定价机制亟待规范

为保障我国“十二五”的经济发展并满足节能减排的要求,需要快速拓展天然气市场.然而与世界发达国家相比,由于经济发展程度不同以及货币汇率差等原因,导致中国天然气各类下游市场用户对天然气价格的承受能力不同,上网电价和天然气价格倒挂成为天然气市场拓展的主要制约因素.掌控中国天然气上、中游的供气价格,首先要尽可能快速增加国产天然气、特别是非常规天然气的产量,以较低的价格对冲较高的进口气价;同时要掌控基于门站价的下游用户终端气价,这就需要尽可能减少从门站到终端用户的下游供气成本,而其关键在于降低交易成本.目前中国天然气下游市场存在许多亟待解决的问题,鉴于此,建议要明确各省“门站”和省天然气“门站价”的定义;“省内管网”应是省内国家主干管网与在其基础上“完善和延伸管线”的总和;省管网公司不应是一级交易平台,而是一个管理机构;规范城市燃气公司特许经营权范围,“终端大用户”和城市燃气管网终端用户适用不同的天然气价格;按照市场机制理顺天然气下游不同用户价格.如此就有可能使占下游市场份额60％的大用户市场快速开拓.