Environmental risk assessment of zinc in European freshwaters: A critical appraisal

A risk assessment report (RAR) on zinc and zinc compounds has recently been prepared in the framework of the European Union (EU) Council Regulation 793/93/EEC on Existing Chemicals. The EU Scientific Committee on Human and Environmental Risks (SCHER) has, however, expressed some fundamental, science-based concerns about the approach followed and the conclusions. The main objective of the present study was to assess the potential environmental risks associated with current use patterns of Zn in nine EU river basins in Germany, France and Belgium, thereby using more advanced methodologies which are largely in line with the recommendations made by SCHER. This included (i) avoiding working with measured Zn concentrations from monitoring stations that were potentially influenced by point sources and/or historical contamination, (ii) the full bioavailability normalization of all chronic ecotoxicity data to river basin specific physico-chemistry using biotic ligand models (BLM), prior to deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) with the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach, and (iii) the use of a probabilistic framework for risk characterization. Further, a total risk approach instead of an added risk approach was used, and the PNEC was equated to the HC5-50 without an additional assessment factor. Based on monitoring data we estimated predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for the different EU river basins between 1.3 and 14.6 µg dissolved Zn/L. PNEC values varied between 22.1 and 46.1 µg dissolved Zn/L. This resulted in deterministic risk characterization ratios (RCR) that were below 1 in all river basins, suggesting that there is no deterministic regional risk associated with current use patterns of Zn in these river basins. With the probabilistic approach we identified rather limited risks, i.e., between < 0.4 and 18.3%. When the EU RAR approach was applied to the same monitoring datasets, deterministic risks were found in different river basins. A detailed analysis showed that this different deterministic conclusion of risk is mainly due to the fact that the EU RAR (i) uses an additional assessment factor of 2 to derive the PNEC and (ii) uses a more conservative approach for implementing bioavailability (BioF approach). We argue that the larger conservatism in the EU RAR mainly originates from decisions made to deal in a pragmatic way with (i) uncertainty related to the across-species extrapolation of BLMs and (ii) the relatively high sensitivity of some multi-species toxicity studies.     

Environmental risk assessment of antibiotics in the Swedish environment with emphasis on sewage treatment plants

The potential risks associated with antibiotics present in the Swedish environment were assessed using concentrations found in hospital effluent, and sewage treatment waters and sludge, in combination with data on their environmental effects obtained from the literature. For the aqueous environment, measured environmental concentrations and effect/no observed effect concentration ratios were much lower than one in most cases. The only exceptions, where concentrations of the investigated substances were high enough to pose potential risks, were the concentrations of the two fluoroquinolones, ofloxacin and ciprofloxacin, in the hospital effluent. Treating digested dewatered sludge by heat did not fully eliminate norfloxacin or ciprofloxacin, thus pellets may still contain high amounts of these substances (sub to low mgkg(-1)dw). In leaching tests less than 1% of the amounts of these fluoroquinolones in the sludge or pellets reached the aqueous phase, indicating that their mobility is limited if sludge is used to fertilize soil.     

Novel methods for integrated risk assessment of cumulative stressors — Results from the NoMiracle project

This special issue covers the main results of the European Sixth Framework Integrated Research project NoMiracle (Novel Methods for Risk Assessment of Cumulative stressors in Europe). New tools to analyse, characterise and quantify the combined risks to health or the environment from multiple stressors are presented or reviewed. Examples of cumulative stressors are mixtures of chemicals alone or in combination with biological or physical environmental factors such as pathogens and climate extremes. Among the main findings, the scientific work points at the importance of time in dealing with toxicity, and in particular the toxicity of chemical mixtures, the natures of the uncertainties associated with risk assessment and the value of visualisation in identifying and quantifying the most relevant risks. A major conclusion of the project is that researchers and regulators should focus on the receptor rather than on the single stressor or combination of agents. There is also a need for more efforts on mechanistic understanding and for a mechanism-based framework for interpreting mixture/multiple stressor effects.The new tools are available on the internet (http://nomiracle.jrc.ec.europa.eu).     

Human health risk assessment of chlorinated disinfection by-products in drinking water using a probabilistic approach

The presence of chlorinated disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water is a public health issue, due to their possible adverse health effects on humans. To gauge the risk of chlorinated DBPs on human health, a risk assessment of chloroform (trichloromethane (TCM)), bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM), bromoform (tribromomethane (TBM)), dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) in drinking water was carried out using probabilistic techniques. Literature data on exposure concentrations from more than 15 different countries and adverse health effects on test animals as well as human epidemiological studies were used. The risk assessment showed no overlap between the highest human exposure dose (EXP(D)) and the lowest human equivalent dose (HED) from animal test data, for TCM, BDCM, DBCM, TBM, DCAA and TCAA. All the HED values were approximately 10(4)-10(5) times higher than the 95th percentiles of EXP(D). However, from the human epidemiology data, there was a positive overlap between the highest EXP(D) and the lifetime average daily doses (LADD(H)) for TCM, BDCM, DCAA and TCAA. This suggests that there are possible adverse health risks such as a small increased incidence of cancers in males and developmental effects on infants. However, the epidemiological data comprised several risk factors and exposure classification levels which may affect the overall results.     

Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives

This paper reviews the application of ecological vulnerability analysis in risk assessment and describes new developments in methodology. For generic non-site-specific assessments (e.g. for the requirements of most European directives on dangerous chemicals) risk is characterised just on the basis of the ratio between an effect indicator and an exposure indicator. However, when the actual risk for a specific ecosystem is desired, the concept of ecological vulnerability may be more appropriate. This calls for a change in thinking, from sensitivity at the organism level to vulnerability at higher organization levels, and thus forms the link from laboratory toxicology to field effects at population, community or ecosystem level. To do so, biological and ecological characteristics of the ecosystems under concern are needed to estimate the ecological vulnerability.In this review we describe different vulnerability analysis methods developed for populations (of a single species), communities (consisting of different populations of species) and ecosystems (community and habitat combined). We also give some examples of methods developed for socio-ecological systems. Aspects that all methods share are the use of expert judgment, the input of stakeholders, ranking and mapping of the results, and the qualitative nature of the results.A new general framework is presented to guide future ecological vulnerability analysis. This framework can be used as part of ecological risk assessment, but also in risk management. We conclude that the further quantification of ecological vulnerability is a valuable contribution to vulnerability assessment.     

Environmental risk mapping of pollutants: State of the art and communication aspects

Risk maps help risk analysts and scientists to explore the spatial nature of the effects of environmental stressors such as pollutants. The development of Geographic Information Systems over the past few decades has greatly improved spatial representation and analysis of environmental information and data. Maps also constitute a powerful tool to communicate the outcome of complex environmental risk assessment to stakeholders such as the general public and policy makers. With appropriate cartography one can improve communication and thus bridge the gap between experts and users. Appropriate risk communication is pivotal to risk management, decision making and implementation and may prevent unnecessary concern about environmental pollutants. However, at present few risk maps are specifically tailored to meet the demands of such defined uses.This paper presents an overview of the most important types of risk maps that can be distinguished using examples from the scientific literature: contamination maps, exposure maps, hazard maps, vulnerability maps and ‘true’ risk maps. It also discusses, in a general way, the most important issues that need to be addressed when making risk maps for communication purposes: risk perception, target audience, scale and spatial aggregation and visualisation such as use of colours and symbols. Finally, some general rules of thumb are given for making environmental risk maps for communication purposes.     

基于ISM和BN的危险品仓储系统安全风险评估

为预防危险品仓储事故,有必要对危险品仓储系统做安全风险评估.为降低危险品仓储系统安全风险评估的随机性和不确定性,将解释结构模型(ISM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)方法用于安全风险定量评估.基于扎根理论进行危险品仓储系统安全风险因素识别,在此基础上得到危险品仓储系统安全风险因素体系.基于ISM模型建立危险品仓储系统安全风险贝叶...     

城市区域火灾风险评估综述

分析了火灾风险评估概念的内涵 ,综述了以某一系统为对象的火灾风险评估的研究及目的 ,介绍了国内外较新的城市区域火灾风险评估方法     

桥梁顶升施工风险评价

本文通过对桥梁现状的调查,给出了关于桥梁顶升的施工建议。同时在充分了解项目情况和顶升方案之后,结合国内外桥梁顶升相关资料和文献,从顶升方案、顶升设备、自然灾害3个方面进行风险辨识,建立了东江大道公跨铁立交桥桥梁顶升施工风险指标体系,并应用模糊综合评价法计算得出了该项目的风险等级。     

A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams' risk assessment: methodology and quantification

Dams' safety is highly important for authorities around the world. The impacts of a dam failure can be enormous. Models for investigating dam safety are required for helping decision-makers to mitigate the possible adverse consequences of flooding. A model for earth dam safety must specify clearly possible contributing factors, failure modes and potential consequences of dam failure. Probabilistic relations between variables should also be specified. Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as tools that would assist dam engineers on assessing risks. BNs are graphical models that facilitate the construction of a joint probability distribution. Most of the time, the variables included in a model for earth dam risk assessment involve continuous quantities. The presence of continuous random variables makes the implementation of discrete BNs difficult. An alternative to discrete BNs is the use of non-parametric continuous BNs, which will be briefly described in this article. As an example, a model for earth dams' safety in the State of Mexico will be discussed. Results regarding the quantification of conditional rank correlations through ratios of unconditional rank correlations have not been presented before and are introduced herein. While the complete application of the model for the State of Mexico is presented in an accompanying paper, here some results regarding model use are shown for demonstration purposes. The methods presented in this article can be applied for investigating risks of failure of civil infrastructures other than earth dams.     

城市燃气管网运行安全风险评估研究进展

从定性、半定量、定量分析及新兴评估方法等方面介绍2009-2018年国内外燃气管网风险评估的研究进展。整理国内外城市燃气管网风险评估的指南标准,总结我国与国外相关规范标准的优缺点。整理相关软件开发情况,分析我国在软件开发方面的不足。对未来研究的发展趋势做出建议,例如加强耦合风险评估、定量评价法的研究,推进GIS的应用等。     

Ingestion risks of metals in groundwater based on TIN model and dose-response assessment — A case study in the Xiangjiang watershed, central-south China

Groundwater samples were collected in the Xiangjiang watershed in China from 2002 to 2008 to analyze concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, mercury, manganese, and zinc. Spatial and seasonal trends of metal concentrations were then discussed. Combined with geostatistics, an ingestion risk assessment of metals in groundwater was performed using the dose-response assessment method and the triangulated irregular network (TIN) model. Arsenic concentration in groundwater had a larger variation from year to year, while the variations of other metal concentrations were minor. Meanwhile, As concentrations in groundwater over the period of 2002-2004 were significantly higher than that over the period of 2005-2007, indicating the improvement of groundwater quality within the later year. The hazard index (HI) in 2002 was also significantly higher than that in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Moreover, more than 80% of the study area recorded an HI of more than 1.0 for children, suggesting that some people will experience deleterious health effects from drinking groundwater in the Xiangjiang watershed. Arsenic and manganese were the largest contributors to human health risks (HHRs). This study highlights the value of long-term health risk evaluation and the importance of geographic information system (GIS) technologies in the assessment of watershed-scale human health risk.     

Environmental assessment of building properties—Where natural and social sciences meet: The case of EcoEffect

The EcoEffect method of assessing external and internal impacts of building properties is briefly described. The external impacts of manufacturing and transport of the building materials, the generation of power and heat consumed during the operation phase are assessed using life-cycle methodology. Emissions and waste; natural resource depletion and toxic substances in building materials are accounted for. Here methodologies from natural sciences are employed. The internal impacts involve the assessment of the risk for discomfort and ill-being due to features and properties of both the indoor environment and outdoor environment within the boundary of the building properties. This risk is calculated based on data and information from questionnaires; measurements and inspection where methodologies mainly from social sciences are used. Life-cycle costs covering investment and utilities costs as well as maintenance costs summed up over the lifetime of the building are also calculated.     

村寨建筑群火灾蔓延风险简化评估方法

针对火灾蔓延模拟工作量大、对防火构造考虑不充分等问题,结合云南勐卡老寨的火灾蔓延风险评估,提出了一种基于网络模型的村寨建筑群火灾蔓延简化分析方法。该方法通过现场勘查和简化计算确定建筑火灾向周边蔓延的路径,建立建筑群火灾蔓延网络的邻接矩阵,进一步结合网络节点遍历算法确定出不同火灾场景下的蔓延范围,在此基础上分析了不同火灾场景、不同区域的火灾蔓延风险。     

建筑安装工程风险评价

结合我国建筑施工应急管理的现状,以建筑安装工程为出发点,建立了基于模糊综合评价理论的建筑安装工程风险评价模型,并运用该模型进行了实例评价,表明该模型能够有效地控制建筑安装过程的风险,为安全施工奠定基础。     

基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的仓储类建筑火灾风险评估

以降低仓储类建筑火灾风险为目的,通过分析影响仓储类建筑火灾发生原因,分析顶层事件与基层事件之间自上而下的因果关系,建立故障树,并将其映射到贝叶斯网络中,通过计算得出事件发生的先验和后验概率,并将两者有效的联系起来。给出各事件发生的重要度指标有结构指标、概率指标和关键指标,分别进行定量分析指出仓储类建筑最有可能存在的风险。文章以2010—2020年十年期间仓储类建筑火灾发生案例为样本对本文提出的模型进行验证。检验结果：文章提出贝叶斯网络模型能够有效评估仓储类建筑风险等级并降低火灾事故发生。     

基于模糊综合评价的水资源短缺风险分析

选取风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、重现期和风险度几个评价指标衡量区域水资源短缺的风险程度，研究了水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价方法，以确定区域水资源短缺风险所达到的程度，为区域水资源规划和管理提供了决策依据。     

Concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds in Indoor Air – A Review

A review is presented of investigations of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in indoor air of buildings of different classifications (dwellings, offices, schools, hospitals) and categories (established, new and complaint buildings). Measured concentrations obtained from the published literature and from research in progress overseas were pooled so that VOC concentration profiles could be derived for each building classification/category. Mean concentrations of individual compounds in established buildings were found to be generally below 50 μg/m³, with most below 5 μg/m³. Concentrations in new buildings were much greater, often by an order of magnitude or more, and appeared to arise from construction materials and building contents. The nature of these sources and approaches to reduce indoor air concentrations by limiting source VOC emissions is discussed. Total VOC (TVOC) concentrations were substantially higher than concentrations of any individual VOCs in all situations, reflecting the large number of compounds present, but interpretation of such measurements was limited by the lack of a common definition for TVOC relevant to occupant exposure.