Understanding and using the Implicit Association Test: III. Meta-analysis of predictive validity.

This review of 122 research reports (184 independent samples, 14,900 subjects) found average r = .274 for prediction of behavioral, judgment, and physiological measures by Implicit Association Test (IAT) measures. Parallel explicit (i.e., self-report) measures, available in 156 of these samples (13,068 subjects), also predicted effectively (average r = .361), but with much greater variability of effect size. Predictive validity of self-report was impaired for socially sensitive topics, for which impression management may distort self-report responses. For 32 samples with criterion measures involving Black–White interracial behavior, predictive validity of IAT measures significantly exceeded that of self-report measures. Both IAT and self-report measures displayed incremental validity, with each measure predicting criterion variance beyond that predicted by the other. The more highly IAT and self-report measures were intercorrelated, the greater was the predictive validity of each. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effect of the location of myocardial infarction on the variability of heart rate: a study during the acute phase

OBJECTIVES: The influence of the location of acute myocardial infarction on the autonomic tone and its evolution during the first hours post-infarct has not been fully evaluated. The aim of this study was to analyze this effect using a spectral analysis of the heart rate variability. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-nine consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction (22 anterior and 27 inferior) in sinus rhythm and free of diseases and drugs which could affect heart rate variability were studied. Five-minute Holter recordings within each hour between 10 and 33 hours after the onset of symptoms were analyzed, calculating the standard deviation of NN intervals and the spectral power of the high and low frequency bands using normalized units. RESULTS: The standard deviation was higher in inferior infarcts (51.4 +/- 23.4 ms vs. 38.6 +/- 14.8 ms in anterior location; p < 0.05) and gradually decreased over time in both locations. The relative distribution of high- and low-frequency bands did not show significant differences related to the infarct location. An inverse significant correlation between the high-frequency component and time was observed for anterior infarcts (r = -0.98; p < 0.001) as well as in the inferior group (r = -0.75; p = 0.04). Conversely, the low-frequency power gradually increased in anterior infarcts (r = 0.98, p < 0.001) while remaining stable in inferior locations (r = -0.08; NS). CONCLUSIONS: A gradual reduction of heart rate variability was observed in patients with acute myocardial infarction during the time of monitorization. The spectral analysis suggests that anterior infarcts present a progressive increase of sympathetic activity and a reduction of vagal tone, whereas inferior infarcts show a parallel reduction in both components of the autonomous nervous system.     

Today I'll use a condom, but who knows about tomorrow: A daily process study of variability in predictors of condom use.

Objective: Most models of health behavior change applied to condom use behavior have focused on individual differences in theoretical constructs to explain condom use or nonuse, while ignoring the possibility that day-to-day within-person changes in these constructs may contribute to understanding behavior. The goal of the present study was to investigate day-to-day variability in condom use attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions and assess the utility of this variability in predicting the likelihood of condom use each day. Design: A 30-day Web-based structured daily diary was used to collect daily reports of sexual behaviors and data on theoretical predictors of condom use behavior from sexually active college students (N = 116). Main Outcome Measures: The authors investigated whether condom use attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions vary day to day; whether this within-person variability predicts condom use behavior; and whether negative affective states explain this variability. Results and Conclusions: Within-person variability was found for each of the constructs. Within-person day-to-day changes in behavioral intentions and attitudes predicted the instances in which an individual used a condom and daily negative affect partially explained within-person day-to-day changes in behavioral intentions and self-efficacy. Implications for models of health behavior change and for behavior change interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Goal agreement and early therapeutic change.

Examined the relation of perception of therapist–client goal agreement and actual goal agreement with early therapeutic change in 24 Ss (aged 18–35 yrs). Goal agreement and early change were measured using the Working Alliance Inventory, Goal Statement Inventory, Causal Dimension Scale II, Target Complaint, and Global Assessment of Functioning. Multiple regression analyses of the data show that actual goal agreement, rather than perceived goal agreement, is related to early change. Client–therapist actual agreement concerning the amount of external control over the client's problem, and the degree of focus on stabilizing the client's current functioning, were related to client-rated initial change. Greater initial improvement was also associated with greater perceptions of personal control on the part of the therapist. However, greater therapist-rated initial improvement was associated with a focus on stabilizing the client's current personality pattern, and a greater sense of problem persistence by the client, rather than the therapist. Clinical implications, as well as directions for future research, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mechanical Property Prediction of Strip Model Based on PSO-BP Neural Network

Mechanical property prediction of hot rolled strip is one of the hotspots in material processing research. To avoid the local infinitesimal defect and slow constringency in pure BP algorithm, a kind of global optimization algorithm-particle swarm optimization （PSO） is adopted. The algorithm is combined with the BP rapid training algorithm, and then, a kind of new neural network （NN） called PSO-BP NN is established. With the advantages of global optimization ability and the rapid constringency of the BP rapid training algorithm, the new algorithm fully shows the ability of nonlinear approach of multilayer feedforward network, improves the performance of NN, and provides a favorable basis for further online application of a comprehensive model.     

Evidence for higher reaction time variability for children with ADHD on a range of cognitive tasks including reward and event rate manipulations.

Objective: The purpose of the research study was to examine the manifestation of variability in reaction times (RT) in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and to examine whether RT variability presented differently across a variety of neuropsychological tasks, was present across the two most common ADHD subtypes, and whether it was affected by reward and event rate (ER) manipulations. Method: Children with ADHD-combined type (n = 51), ADHD-predominantly inattentive type (n = 53), and 47 controls completed five neuropsychological tasks (Choice Discrimination Task, Child Attentional Network Task, Go/No-Go task, Stop Signal Task, and N-back task), each allowing trial-by-trial assessment of RTs. Multiple indicators of RT variability including RT standard deviation, coefficient of variation and ex-Gaussian tau were used. Results: Children with ADHD demonstrated greater RT variability than controls across all five tasks as measured by the ex-Gaussian indicator tau. There were minimal differences in RT variability across the ADHD subtypes. Children with ADHD also had poorer task accuracy than controls across all tasks except the Choice Discrimination task. Although ER and reward manipulations did affect children's RT variability and task accuracy, these manipulations largely did not differentially affect children with ADHD compared to controls. RT variability and task accuracy were highly correlated across tasks. Removing variance attributable to RT variability from task accuracy did not appreciably affect between-groups differences in task accuracy. Conclusions: High RT variability is a ubiquitous and robust phenomenon in children with ADHD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

To seek help or not to seek help: The risks of self-disclosure.

Investigations into the reasons why people seek counseling have, for the most part, focused on approach factors, those variables that are associated with a potential client's increased likelihood of seeking psychological services. The purpose of this research, however, is to explore the role of avoidance factors, those factors that are associated with a potential client's decreased likelihood of seeking services. Across 2 studies of primarily Caucasian college students (ns = 209 and 268, respectively). the results of simultaneous multiple regression analyses demonstrated that avoidance factors predict negative attitudes toward counseling as well as decreased intentions to seek counseling. Overall, results demonstrate that avoidance factors account for at least as much help-seeking variance as traditionally studied approach factors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting termination and continuation status in psychotherapy using the transtheoretical model.

Measures from the transtheoretical model of change (TMC) were compared to traditional client characteristic variables as predictors of psychotherapy client termination and continuation. According to the TMC, stages of change, processes of change, decisional balance, and levels of attribution are core dimensions of behavior change in psychotherapy. 60 pairs of therapists (mean age 35 yrs) and 18–71 yr old clients were given questionnaires assessing demographics, distress symptoms, and dimensions of the TMC. Therapists also completed an Assessment of Client's Termination Status questionnaire. Client characteristics were not significant predictors but the transtheoretical variables of stages of change, processes of change, and decisional balance for therapy were excellent predictors. A discriminative function analysis correctly classified 92% of the clients into two groups: (1) premature terminators and (2) appropriate terminators and therapy continuers. Discussion focused on the importance of matching therapy to client's stage of change in order to reduce the average rate of 40% of clients terminating therapy prematurely. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparison of Methods for Predicting Incipient Motion for Sand Beds

A comparison of four methods for predicting the incipient motion conditions of a uniform sand bed is presented. The four methods are: (1) the Shields diagram, (2) an empirical approach, (3) a method derived from resolution of rotational forces, and (4) a simplified resolution of rotational forces with a variable lift force coefficient. The four methods are used to predict the incipient motion conditions for 97 experimental runs taken from seven independent experimental flume studies. The effectiveness of predicting depth averaged incipient motion velocity for each of the four methods are compared. The simplified resolution of rotational forces model (4) and Shields method (1) were most successful in predicting the incipient motion velocity [R2 = 0.77, 0.74 and root mean square error (RMSE)=0.18, 0.15, respectively]. The slope of line of best fit for plots illustrating predicted versus measured incipient motion velocity were similar (slope=0.63, 0.65, respectively), illustrating that both methods provide a similarly justifiable prediction of depth averaged incipient motion. The empirical method was the least successful at predicting the measured incipient motion conditions (R2 = 0.49, RMSE=0.41).     

A systemic-wholistic approach to differential aging: Longitudinal findings from the Berlin Aging Study.

Wholistic perspectives on differential change focus on multiple-indicator information at a person level. They supplement the modeling of average trajectories at a variable level. The authors extended cross-sectional work in the Berlin Aging Study (J. Smith & P. B. Baltes, 1997) to 6-year longitudinal cluster analyses (n = 132). At baseline, 3 subgroups were identified with distinct within-person psychological profiles across cognitive, personality, and social integration constructs. Over time, highly similar subgroup profiles were found, and about two thirds of the participants could be classified as remaining in the same subgroups. Baseline subgroups differed in level and slope of change and in 2 outcomes, well-being and mortality. Independent of subgroup membership, subgroup-to-subgroup change was associated with greater decline and predicted poststudy mortality. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of a wholistic approach for long-term prediction of outcomes and within-person systemic variability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Strategic self-presentation in supervision.

A counselor trainee with a defensive self-presentational style is one who takes credit for the client's improvement or blames the client for deterioration. Conversely, a trainee with a counterdefensive style attributes improvement to the client or accepts personal responsibility for deterioration. 80 experienced (1–25 yrs) supervisors heard a tape of a simulated supervisory session in which a female trainee summarized her ongoing treatment of a moderately depressed client. Ss heard the trainee (a) describe how, recently, the client's depression had either lifted (improvement condition) or worsened (deterioration condition); and (b) attribute this change either to her own efforts or to the client. Ss then completed several measures, including an abbreviated version of the Counselor Rating Form. The counterdefensive trainee was judged to be somewhat more socially skilled than the defensive trainee, but the defensive trainee was rated as significantly more self-confident. Regardless of the trainee's explanation, however, when the client's depression lifted, the trainee was viewed as significantly more competent, self-confident, expert, and attractive than she was when the client's depression worsened. Ss assigned more responsibility to the client for improvement than for deterioration, but this pattern was reversed for the trainee and supervisor. (25 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Relationship of counselor conceptual level to clinical hypothesis formation.

37 counseling students completed the Paragraph Completion Method, a measure of conceptual level (CL). All Ss then viewed a videotape of a client in a counseling session and completed the Clinical Assessment Questionnaire, which is designed to assess counselors' hypotheses about a client's problem. Questionnaire responses were scored on 7 categories relevant to clinical judgment and information processing. Two factors were considered in a multiple regression analysis—CL and clinical experience. Results indicate that experience level was not significantly related to the characteristics of the students' clinical hypothesis formation. CL was significantly related to the overall quality and clarity of expression in clinical hypotheses and the number of divergent questions asked about the client's problems. Methodological and counselor-training implications are discussed. (16 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Postdecision changes in the desirability of alternatives.

Female Ss were asked to rate each of eight articles on desirability, choose between two of them and rate each of the articles again. In addition, some Ss were exposed to a mixture of good and bad information about the choice alternatives after the choice was made. The results support a prediction that choosing between alternatives would create dissonance and attempts to reduce it by making the chosen alternative more desirable and the unchosen alternative less desirable. A second prediction, that dissonance and consequent attempts to reduce it would be greater, the more closely the alternatives approached equality, also received support. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Religious commitment and expectations about psychotherapy among Christian clients.

To assist psychotherapists in understanding client religiousness, Richards and Bergin (2005) have suggested assessing clients' religiousness at a broad level initially, using ecumenical measures, followed by a more detailed assessment that uses measures particular to the client's religious affiliation. In this study, the utility of this approach was tested in predicting expectations about psychotherapy of Christian clients (N = 176). Their religious commitment was considered in comparison to religious beliefs, attitudes, values, and behaviors. Client religiousness was positively associated with ratings of therapist expertise and attractiveness, desire to discuss religious issues in psychotherapy, and desire to see a Christian therapist. This suggests that assessing religious commitment is important, and that measuring religious beliefs, attitudes, values, and behaviors add accuracy to assessment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparative evaluation of the use of artificial neural networks for modelling the epidemiology of schistosomiasis mansoni

There has been a marked increase in the application of approaches based on artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of computer science and medical diagnosis, but AI is still relatively unused in epidemiological settings. In this study we report results of the application of neural networks (NN; a special category of AI) to schistosomiasis. It was possible to design an NN structure which can process and fit epidemiological data collected from 251 schoolchildren in Egypt using the first year's data to predict second and third years' infection rates. Data collected over 3 years included age, gender, exposure to canal water and agricultural activities, medical history and examination, and stool and urine parasitology. Schistosoma mansoni infection rates were 50%, 78% and 66% at the baseline and the 2 follow-up periods, respectively. NN modelling was based on the standard back-propagation algorithm, in which we built a suitable configuration of the network, using the first year's data, that optimized performance. It was implemented on an IBM compatible computer using commercially available software. The performance of the NN model in the first year compared favourably with logistic regression (NN sensitivity = 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78-88%) and positive predictive value (PPV) = 63% (95% CI 57-69%); logistic regression sensitivity = 66% (95% CI 60%-72%) and PPV = 59% (95% CI 53%-65%). The NN model generalized the criteria for predicting infection over time better than logistic regression and showed more stability over time, as it retained its sensitivity and specificity and had better false positive and negative profiles than logistic regression. The potential of NN-based models to analyse and predict wide-scale control programme data, which are inevitably based on unstable egg excretion rates and insensitive laboratory techniques, is promising but still untapped.     

Moderators of self–other agreement: Reconsidering temporal stability in personality.

Accurate prediction requires information not only about central tendencies but also about variability. In personality prediction, however, most research has focused on trait-level central tendencies. Previously proposed moderators of personality prediction are all conceptually similar in comparing an individual's central tendency in response patterns with that of the normative person. This article proposes an alternative: Trait-level prediction is enhanced by measuring the temporal stability of response patterns within persons. Across 2 studies, individuals with temporally stable response patterns had higher self–other agreement on conscientiousness and extraversion than did individuals with less temporally stable patterns. By comparison, normatively based variables (interitem variability, scalability, or construct similarity) did not moderate self–other agreement. The implications for personality structure, assessment, and prediction are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning.

Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability is consistently chosen, rather than a probabilistic strategy, in which an outcome is chosen with a probability equal to its judged probability. Extended practice in the learning environment did not affect choice strategy selection, contrary to reports from previous studies, results of which may instead be attributable to changes with practice in the variability and extremity of the perceived probabilities on which the choices were based. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)