Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

China has been the second CO₂ emitter in the world, while the transportation sector accounts for a major share of CO₂ emissions. Analysis of transportation sector CO₂ emissions is help to decrease CO₂ emissions. Thus the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential factors influencing the change of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China. First, the transport sector CO₂ emissions over the period 1985–2009 is calculated based on the presented method. Then the presented LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method is used to find the nature of the factors those influence the changes in transport sector CO₂ emissions. We find that: (1) Transport sector CO₂ emissions has increased from 79.67 Mt in 1985 to 887.34 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 10.56%. Highways transport is the biggest CO₂ emitter. (2) The per capita economic activity effect and transportation modal shifting effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO₂ emissions growth over the study period. (3) The transportation intensity effect and transportation services share effect are found to be the main drivers of the reduction of CO₂ emissions in China. However, the emission coefficient effect plays a very minor role over the study period.     

Factors affecting transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An LMDI decomposition analysis

This study determines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector CO₂ emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal shift and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients (EC) and transportation energy intensity (EI). The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation EI are the principal factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While economic growth is responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, the transportation EI effect is driving CO₂ emissions in Bolivia, the Caribbean, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Other Latin America, Panama and Paraguay. Both economic activity (EA) and EI effects are found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in the rest of the Latin American countries. In order to limit CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector in LAC countries, decoupling of the growth of CO₂ emissions from economic growth is necessary; this can be done through policy instruments to promote fuel switching, modal shifting and reductions in transport sector EI. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures.     

China’s regional CO2 emissions: Characteristics,inter-regional transfer and emission reduction policies

This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s regional CO₂ emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009. The results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern, central and western areas, regional elasticities of per capita GDP and energy intensity on CO₂ emissions, which reflect the regional differences in economic development, economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission. Energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity, but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity. The inverse distribution of energy production and consumption, regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter-regional CO₂ emission transfer embodied in the power transmission. The calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003, from eastern area to the central and western areas, especially energy production provinces in central area, which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity. The regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces.     

Decomposition and decoupling effects of carbon dioxide emission from highway transportation in Taiwan,Germany, Japan and South Korea

We adopted the Divisia index approach to explore the impacts of five factors on the total carbon dioxide emissions from highway vehicles in Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan during 1990–2002. CO₂ emission was decomposed into emission coefficient, vehicle fuel intensity, vehicle ownership, population intensity and economic growth. In addition, the decoupling effects among economic growth, transport energy demand and CO₂ emission were analyzed to better understand the fuel performance and CO₂ mitigation strategies for each country. From our results, we suggest that the rapid growths of economy and vehicle ownership were the most important factors for the increased CO₂ emissions_, whereas population intensity contributed significantly to emission decrease. Energy conservation performance and CO₂ mitigation in each country are strongly correlated with environmental pressure and economic driving force, except for Germany in 1993 and Taiwan during 1992–1996. To decouple the economic growth and environmental pressure, proponents of sustainable transport policy in Taiwan should focus on improving the operation and energy use of its highway transportation system by implementing an intelligent transportation system (ITS) with demand management, constructing an integrated feeder system, and encouraging the use of green transport modes.     

Trends in road freight transportation carbon dioxide emissions and policies in China

We adopted the simple average Divisia index approach to explore the impacts of factors on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road freight transportation in China from 1985 to 2007. CO₂ emissions were investigated using the following as influencing factors: the emission coefficient, vehicle fuel intensity, working vehicle stock per freight transport operator, market concentration level, freight transportation distance, market share of road freight transportation, ton-kilometer per value added of industry, industrialization level and economic growth. Building on the results, we suggest that economic growth is the most important factor in increasing CO₂ emissions, whereas the ton-kilometer per value added of industry and the market concentration level contribute significantly to decreasing CO₂ emissions. We also discussed some recent important policies concerning factors contained in the decomposition model.     

Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries

This study investigates the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) for a global panel consisting of 69 countries using a dynamic panel data model. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate the determinants of CO₂ emissions for a number of sub-panels. These sub-panels are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. The time component of our dataset is 1985–2005 inclusive. Our main findings are that trade openness, per capita GDP, and energy consumption, proxied by per capita electric power consumption and per capita total primary energy consumption, have positive effects on CO₂ emissions. Urbanisation is found to have a negative impact on CO₂ emissions in high income, middle income, and low income panels. For the global panel, only GDP per capita and per capita total primary energy consumption are found to be statistically significant determinants of CO₂ emission, while urbanisation, trade openness, and per capita electric power consumption have negative effects on the CO₂ emissions.     

Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method

This paper examines the driving forces for reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity between 1998 and 2008, utilizing the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) technique. By first grouping the CO₂ emissions into two categories, those arising from activities related to the electric power industry and those from other sources, emission intensity is further broken down into the effects of the CO₂ emission coefficient, energy intensity of power generation, power generation and consumption ratio, electricity intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP), provincial structural change, and the energy intensity of the GDP for other activities. The decomposition results show that improvements in the energy intensity of power generation, electricity intensity of GDP, and energy intensity of GDP for other activities were mainly responsible for the success in reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity and that activities related to the electric power industry played a key role. It is also revealed that performance varied significantly at the individual province level. The provinces with higher emission levels contributed the most to China’s improvements in CO₂ emission intensity.     

Road transport-related energy consumption: Analysis of driving factors in Tunisia

The rapid growth of urban population and the development of road infrastructures in Tunisian cities have brought about many environmental and economic problems, including the rise scored in energy consumption and the increase in the quantity of gas emissions arising from road transport. Despite the critical nature of such problems, no policies have yet been adopted to improve energy efficiency in the transport sector. This paper aims to determine driving factors of energy consumption change for the road mode. It uses decomposition analysis to discuss the effects of economic, demographic and urban factors on the evolution of transport energy consumption. The main result highlighted in the present work is that vehicle fuel intensity, vehicle intensity, GDP per capita, urbanized kilometers and national road network are found to be the main drivers of energy consumption change in the road transport sector during 1990–2006 period. Consequently, several strategies can be elaborated to reduce road transport energy. Economic, fiscal and regulatory instruments can be applied in order to make road transport more sustainable.     

Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China based on grey relational analysis

The increase of greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO₂ emissions, have caused the global temperature to rise. As a developing country, China has become the largest CO₂ emitter in the world. It is very important and urgent to cut the CO₂ emissions down. In this article, the driving forces that influenced China’s CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2010 based on grey relational analysis is investigated. It is found that GDP per capita (G), population (P), coal consumption (C), oil consumption (O), natural gas consumption (N), industrial structure (IS), and urbanization (U) play crucial roles in the increase of CO₂ emissions, though they have different impacts on CO₂ emissions. The sequence of the size of the factors’ influence on China’s CO₂ emissions is C > G > O > N > U > P > IS. Some effective recommendations for improving energy efficiency and reducing the CO₂ emissions intensity are proposed.     

The relationship between CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Italy

This study examines the relationship between CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy over the period 1970–2006. Results of unit root tests show that all variables are non-stationary in their level form, but stationary in first differences form. The causal relationship between variables is examined using causality test in a vector autoregressive framework. Our empirical results show that CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth are not cointegrated. Moreover, the Toda and Yamamoto Granger non-causality test shows a bidirectional causality between CO₂ emissions and economic growth, as well as between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption. Forecast error variance decompositions evidence that the errors in real per capita GDP are mainly due to uncertainty in GDP itself, while the errors in predicting the energy consumption and the CO₂ emissions are sensitive to disturbances in the other two equations.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions in APEC countries: A time-series and a cross-sectional decomposition using the log mean Divisia method

We decompose the changes of CO₂ emissions in APEC countries over time as well as the differences of CO₂ emissions among three income groups of APEC countries at a given period of time based on the logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition approach. Among the major findings of the paper the growth in per capita GDP and population are the two dominant contributors to the increase in CO₂ emissions in most cases. Furthermore, energy efficiency and fuel switching are found to be the two most promising fields for possible cooperation between APEC member countries.     

How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development

In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. This has raised the issue of how to allocate the CO₂ reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target. To meet this objective, the following aspects may be taken into consideration: equity principles, ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; intensity reduction target fulfillment; and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces. This paper selects per capita GDP, accumulated fossil fuel related CO₂ emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity, responsibility and potential, respectively. Based on these three indicators, a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed. As decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden, we allocate different weights to the indicators, analyzing the results using cluster analysis. The following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden: the reduction potential of various regions; implementation potential of the plans; and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model.     

Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China

This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO₂ emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO₂ emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO₂ emissions.     

Analysis of the energy intensity of Kazakhstan: from data compilation to decomposition analysis

There are large gaps in energy consumption data and consequently in the estimates of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in Kazakhstan. This study provides the first comprehensive review of energy consumption trends in Kazakhstan, discusses several important discrepancies in energy statistics and presents an improved versions of Energy Balances, developed using additional data. The results indicate that Kazakhstan’s energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 30% from 1.14 to 0.8 toe/thousand 2005USD between 2000 and 2014. To understand factors influencing this decline, the change in energy intensity of GDP was decomposed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I method. The upstream sector (mainly oil and gas) played the most important role in the observed GDP energy intensity change. Although the share of this sector in total GDP increased, causing an increase in energy intensity due to inter-sectoral structural effects, the consequences were counteracted by a twofold decline in the sector’s energy intensity, resulting in a net decrease. On the contrary, the power and heat, transport and household sectors saw an increase in energy intensity between 2000 and 2014. The results clearly demonstrate that there is an urgent need for policies and measures to be put in place in the power and heat, household and transport sectors, to support renewable energy development, increase buildings’ energy efficiencies, replace inefficient stoves and improve heating systems and encourage changes in public transportation systems. Furthermore, improving energy statistics and setting appropriate sectoral energy intensity reduction targets are crucial for achieving real efficiency improvements in the economy.     

Inter-regional comparisons of energy-related CO2 emissions using the decomposition technique

We describe the use of the decomposition technique for comparing energy-related CO₂ emission levels between countries/regions. Application studies pertaining to total and per capita CO₂ emissions for three OECD regions and three world regions are presented. These studies demonstrate how the difference in annual CO₂ emission level between two regions may be expressed in terms of inter-regional differences in fuel share in energy demand, aggregate energy intensity, income, and population. We also show that the recently proposed logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition approach can be conveniently applied in such comparative studies.     

The impact of coal consumption and CO2 emission on economic growth

This study examined the long-run and the causal relationship between total coal consumption, CO₂ emission, and GDP growth in China, the United States, India, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Japan, Australia, Poland, and South Korea. The panel model was employed during the period 1992–2009. The results showed that total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have a long-run relationship with the GDP growth. In addition, there was a short-run positive bidirectional causal relationship between total coal consumption and CO₂ emission. However, total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have no short-run or long-run causal relationship with GDP growth. Thus energy conservation policies on total coal consumption such as rationing energy consumption and controlling CO₂ emissions are likely to have no negative impact on the real output growth of the investigated countries.     

Decomposition analysis and mitigation strategies of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in South Korea

Energy-related CO₂ emissions in South Korea have increased substantially, outpacing those of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since 1990. To mitigate CO₂ emissions in South Korea, we need to understand the main contributing factors to rising CO₂ levels as part of the effort toward developing targeted policies. This paper aims to analyze the specific trends and influencing factors that have caused changes in emissions patterns in South Korea over a 15-year period. To this end, we employed the Log Mean Divisia index method with five energy consumption sectors and seven sub-sectors in terms of fuel mix (FM), energy intensity (EI), structural change (SC) and economic growth (EG). The results showed that EG was a dominant explanation for the increase in CO₂ emissions in all of the sectors. The results also demonstrated that FM causes CO₂ reduction across the array of sectors with the exception of the energy supply sector. CO₂ reduction as a function of SC was also observed in manufacturing, services and residential sectors. Furthermore, EI was an important driver of CO₂ reduction in most sectors except for several manufacturing sub-sectors. Based on these findings, it appears that South Korea should implement climate change policies that consider the specific influential factors associated with increasing CO₂ emissions in each sector.     

Evaluating the interplays among economic growth and energy consumption and CO2 emission of China during 1990-2007

The interplays among economy and energy and environment have been widely concerned. This paper put forward several indicators to quantify the relationships among economic growth and energy consumption and CO₂ emission. As an example, these indicators were applied to evaluate the comprehensive performances of China during 1990-2007. The results show that Chinese people has been living a better life with Chinese rapid economic growth but not synchronously in urban and rural areas. Non-carbon energy resources share has increased; however, fossil energy resources have still acted as the main driver for Chinese economic growth during this period. Technical progress has improved the fossil energy efficiency of Chinese economic activity, which leads to CO₂ emission per unit GDP and CO₂ emission per capita unit GDP dropping simultaneously; however, the two indicators’ annual decline rates become smaller and smaller, which reflects that technical progress’ role is dropping and economic scale's effect is climbing. People's survival has a rising contribution to CO₂ emission. CO₂ emission per capita has increased, which shows that economic scale has greater impact on CO₂ emission than technical progress does. Relatively speaking, Chinese development patterns have become more and more sustainable during this period. Finally, based on the related issues being discussed, some corresponding suggestions are put forward for Chinese government to further coordinate the relationship among economic development and energy consumption and CO₂ emission. The proposed indicators can form a set of useful tool for policy-makers to promote the harmonious development of economy and energy and environment in different regions and countries.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications

This study evaluates the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.