马斯京根法参数C0、C1、C2取值范围的确定

马斯京根法是一种应用较广的河道洪水流量演算方法,传统上是根据蓄量常数K、槽蓄系数x和计算时段Δt来计算马斯京根法参数C0、C1、C2,然后利用C0、C1、C2进行洪水流量演算。不过目前可以利用优化算法直接确定C0、C1、C2的取值,但是在确定C0、C1、C2的值之前需要给定C0、C1、C2的取值范围。因此首先确定蓄量常数K、槽蓄系数x和计算时段Δt的取值范围,再利用多元函数求极值的方法,首次给出了马斯京根法参数C0、C1、C2的取值范围。由于该取值范围较大,在实际应用中可根据x的取值范围来进一步缩小参数C0,C1,C2的取值范围。此方法在马斯京根法参数优化中具有重要的指导意义。     

多元优化算法在马斯京根模型参数优化中的应用

以2个实例为研究对象,利用一种新型群体智能算法——多元优化(MVO)算法优化马斯京根模型参数,并与相关文献中加速遗传算法等多种方法的优化结果进行对比。结果表明:MVO算法优化结果优于其他算法,利用MVO算法优化马斯京根模型参数,可以获得比相关文献更高的模拟精度,不但为精确估计马斯京根模型参数提供了有效方法,而且拓展了MVO算法在水文模型参数优化中的应用。     

双色波数值模拟的造波方法研究

为了使数值波浪水槽模型能够精确简便地代替物理模型,并为港口海洋工程及内河工程提供重要的数据支持,基于不可压缩黏性流体的N-S方程和VOF方法,运用软件FLUENT建立数值水槽。通过对软件的二次开发,进行推波板造波方法的波浪数值模拟。将物理模型实验中的Sch?ffer二阶造波理论运用于波浪数值模拟,实现基于二阶推波板造波法的双频波数值模拟。在此造波基础上,开创性地模拟出变化地形下波浪的相互作用,体现出其非线性作用。研究结果显示:(1)将各工况得出数据分别与理论值和实验值进行对比验证,表明所用方法有较好的精确性;(2)通过双色波相互作用后的频域分析得出其适用范围为0.1h/L0.5。推波板造波法模拟的数值波浪有着较好的非线性和精确性,可以在一定条件下代替物理实验。     

差分进化算法在马斯京根模型参数优选中的应用

针对马斯京根模型参数最优估计中求解复杂、精度差等问题,结合绝对残差绝对值之和最小准则,提出应用差分进化算法（Differential Evolution Algorithm）直接优选模型参数。同其它算法相比,实例分析表明该算法具有较强的全局搜索能力和较高的计算精度。为更好地优选马斯京根模型参数提供了一种更为有效的新方法。     

Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.     

基于长办汇流曲线的多模型联合洪水演算研究

传统长办汇流曲线采用试算法确定稳定流的河段传播时间K值时,计算过程繁琐且不一定能得到最优解。基于此,提出利用遗传算法求解马斯京根模型的河段传播时间,进而优化长办汇流曲线模型的参数K。该方法既充分利用了长办汇流曲线模型中的经验性汇流系数,又融入了改进马斯京根法,可以保证参数全局最优的特点,有效提高了河道洪水演算精度,为河道洪水演算研究提供了一种多模型联合求解的新思路。     

用分层马斯京根法作河道洪水演算

针对复式河道中用马斯京根法作洪水演算时,常出现洪水参数K、x值难以概化,整个过程线高、低水段很难拟合的情况,根据马斯京根法的基本原理.结合复式河道中漫滩部分水体的影响,提出了把整个入流过程按河槽形态的变化进行分层处理的分层马斯京根洪水演算方法。该法经在渭河临潼至华阴河段实际运用,其精度较传统马斯京根法有明显的提高。     

Application of New Hybrid Optimization Technique for Parameter Estimation of New Improved Version of Muskingum Model

The Muskingum method is one of the most utilized lumped flood routing model in which calibration of its parameters provides an active area of research in water resources engineering. Although various techniques and versions of Muskingum model have been presented to estimate the parameters of different versions of Muskingum model, more rigorous approaches and models are still required to improve the computational precision of calibration process. In this study, a new hybrid technique was proposed for Muskingum parameter estimation which combines the Modified Honey Bee Mating Optimization (MHBMO) and Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) algorithms. According to the conducted literature-review on the improvement of Muskingum flood routing models, a new six-parameter Muskingum model was proposed. The hybrid technique was successfully applied for parameter estimation of this new version of Muskingum model for three case studies selected from literature. The obtained results were compared with those of other methods using several common performance evaluation criteria. The new hybrid method with the new proposed Muskingum model perform the best among all the considered approaches based on most of utilized criteria. The new Muskingum model significantly reduces the SSQ value for the double-peak case study. Finally, the achieved results demonstrate that not only the hybrid MHBMO-GRG algorithm overcomes the shortcomings of both phenomenon-mimicking and mathematical optimization techniques, but also the presented Muskingum model is appeared to be the most reliable version of Muskingum model comparing with other considered models in this research.     

多智能体遗传算法用于马斯京根模型参数估计

将智能体对环境的感知和反作用的能力与遗传算法的搜索方式相结合提出了一种改进的多智能体遗传算法，用于马斯京根模型的参数估计。该方法中每个智能体代表一个候选解并固定在网格上，为了增加自身能量，它将与其邻域的智能体进行合作或竞争，也可以利用自身的知识进行自学习来增加能量，通过这些智能体与智能体间的相互作用来达到优化模型中参数的目的。应用实例表明，该算法同其他算法相比具有更好的优化性能，从而为准确估计马斯京根模型参数提供了一种更为有效的方法。     

GIS在三峡流域水文模拟中的应用

本文在三峡区间6个小流域上由人工率定了新安江模型参数，在地理信息系统平台上推求了流域地理地貌特征值。采用相关分析的方法，对自由水蓄水容量SM、地下水出流系数KG、壤中流出流系数KI、马斯京根法汇流系数X等模型参数和下垫面地形、地质、植被等特征值建立了相关关系。由相关关系和特征值采用反演的方法推求上述参数的反演值。经小流域模拟验证，相关关系是可靠的，在实际降雨径流模拟中能达到一定的精度。因此，由特征值反演参数的方法可移用于无资料地区，解决此类地区模型参数的率定问题。本文提出的方法已应用于长江三峡区间实时洪水预报中。     

淮河鲁台子以上流域洪水预报模型研究

本文以淮河鲁台子以上流域为例,采用分布式概念性水文模型,对王家坝以上流域及阜阳、蒋家集、横排头淮干支流进行降雨径流与洪水过程研究,同时进行参数率定。采用马斯京根法、马斯京根水位模拟法和扩散波非线性水位法,对淮河干流王家坝至鲁台子区间具有行蓄洪区流域洪水进行预报。预报模型在2007年的大洪水预报调度中得到了检验,取得了较高的精度。     

不排水条件下开挖边坡稳定性极限分析

为了在初期勘察阶段少量室内和现场试验基础上准确快速地对开挖边坡进行稳定性评价,提出了一种新的边坡稳定性评价方法。基于极限分析上限定理,推导不排水条件下开挖边坡二维稳定性极限分析理论,根据理论公式编程计算,得到不排水条件下开挖边坡稳定系数图表及滑动面变化规律,从而建立不排水条件下开挖边坡稳定性评价方法。结果表明,以极限分析上限定理为依据确定边坡稳定系数和不排水抗剪强度比值的关系、滑动面与限制深度的关系来评价边坡稳定性,其物理意义明确,计算结果客观,相比于极限平衡法和数值分析法,极限分析法更适合于开挖边坡的稳定性评价。     

基于泰勒展式的混合阶次流形方法

对于流形方法,其高阶位移场函数的构造大多是采用完全多项式函数,但这种处理使得升阶后的各个广义自由度完全丧失物理意义。为避免出现上述问题,采用泰勒展开法,将覆盖位移函数看作是某点的泰勒展开。基于此泰勒展式,建立了位移函数与节点位移、应变和转角之间的函数关系,使得升阶后的各个广义自由度都具有明确的物理意义。选取矩形格子作为数学网格,减少了物理片的生成,使前后处理变得更简单;在结构求解区域使用混合阶次的覆盖位移场函数来提高解题效率,能实现解析解与数值解的完美结合;采用改进的罚函数与广义节点法相结合的方式来处理边界条件,严格符合边界条件的物理意义;最后结合数值算例验证了该方法的高效性,与此同时数值解精度也得到了极大提高。     

黄河宁蒙河段冰期洪水波运动过程中的变形分析

河道中冰盖的存在会影响到洪水波的演进变形。以黄河宁蒙河段为研究对象,将马斯京根法尝试应用于冰期洪水计算,分析了马斯京根法参数与糙率的关系,比较了冰盖冻结增厚和融化减薄过程对洪水波变形的影响差异。研究结果表明,将马斯京根法应用于冰期洪水计算是可行的;断面的糙率越大,洪水波传播时间越久,变形越大;冰盖冻结增厚过程中,洪水波的变形存在先增加再减少而后又增加的现象;冰盖融化减薄过程中,洪水波随冰厚的减薄而变形增大。相同冰厚下,两种过程的变形程度存在交点。交点之前的冰厚范围,冰盖融化减薄时的洪水波变形更大;交点之后的冰厚范围,冰盖冻结增厚时的洪水波变形更大。     

二维坡面雨洪水动力模型研究

由降雨产生的坡面洪水运动过程复杂,其可靠模拟仍有待深入。该文建立了基于浅水方程的二维坡面雨洪动力过程模拟的动力波模型,选用单坡、三阶坡面和复杂起伏多变坡面的雨洪运动为数值算例,进行了数值检验并与忽略惯性项的扩散波模型进行了对比分析。结果表明:动力波模型可以较好地模拟洪水过程,在峰现时间,洪峰水位的捕捉和退水过程等方面都表现出优良的特性;而且动力波模型在复杂坡面雨洪过程计算的适应性方面表现更佳。而扩散波模型在计算精度和稳定性方面都相对要差。虽然扩散波模型在单坡面算例中的计算精度也较高,但因受忽略惯性项的影响,退水过程有明显偏离。     

基于区间入流预报的右江河道洪水演进

广西右江如果发生大洪水,将对郁江和南宁市的防洪产生严重威胁,因此右江洪水演进分析对南宁市的防洪具有重要意义。选出百色水文站洪峰流量依次增大的5场洪水,用右江百色-田东河段区间内的小流域作为代表性流域率定新安江模型参数,对区间入流洪水进行了预报。根据预报结果采用经参数试错法率定后的马斯京根模型对5场洪水进行了演进,计算了田东水文站断面的流量。结果表明:计算结果与实测流量相对误差较小,相关性系数较大,说明试错法对于马斯京根模型参数求解精度较高。     

淮河中游河段河道汇流参数的优化分析

利用1998~2005年的洪水资料对马斯京根模型参数进行优选,优选润河集、横排头、阜阳闸至正阳关最优的河道汇流参数,并对该优选参数值进行验证,预报洪水过程平均不确定性系数在0.85以上,预测洪峰流量误差控制在8%以内,达到较高预报作业精度。     

A Modified Muskingum Flow Routing Model for Flood Wave Propagation during River Ice Thawing-Breakup Period

During the period of river ice thawing and breakup process (termed as “ice cover thawing-breakup”), vast amount of water stored in ice-covered river reach will be released comparing to that under open flow condition. The flow routing process during river ice thawing-breakup period will be different from that under open flow condition, since water stored in and channel from ice thawing-breakup process and flow routing process are very complicated. If the flow routing process during river ice thawing-breakup period can be predicted, it will very important for flood protection in the downstream river reach. In present study, water released from ice cover thawing process is considered as the lateral inflow to the channel flow during propagation process of flood wave from upstream to downstream. A model for the flood routing process during river ice thawing-breakup period has been developed based on the Muskingum hydrologic method. Using the modified Muskingum model, the routed outflow hydrograph has been determined along the Baotou Reach of the Yellow River during river ice thawing-breakup period. Results showed that the simulated hydrographs using developed model agree well with those of field measurements.

     

Parameter Estimation of Two Improved Nonlinear Muskingum Models Considering the Lateral Flow Using a Hybrid Algorithm

The Muskingum model was one of the most popular methods for flood routing in water resources engineering, many researchers had presented various versions of Muskingum model so as to enhance the precision of the Muskingum model in their papers. Similarly, two new nonlinear Muskingum models were presented in this paper. One considered the lateral flow, and the other considered the lateral flow and a variable exponent parameter, simultaneously. Minimizing the sum of the squared (SSQ) deviations between the observed and routed outflows was considered as the objective, and then three benchmark examples and a real example in Iran were applied to verify performances of two proposed models. A hybrid algorithm, which combined the improved real-coded adaptive genetic algorithm and the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, was utilized for parameter estimation of two proposed models. Comparisons of the optimal results for four examples by different models showed that two proposed models can produce more accurate fit to observed outflows, and the proposed model, which simultaneously considered a variable exponent parameter and the lateral flow, reduced the SSQ obviously.     

横泉水库大坝土料碾压试验

在取得土料场土料物理力学性质参数的情况下，遵循碾压试验基本原理、方法及参数组合，进行了现场碾压试验，通过试验成果的分析，得出了大坝碾压试验结论，为大坝土方填筑提供了技术依据。