International technology-oriented agreements to address climate change

Much discussion has surrounded possible alternatives for international agreements on climate change, particularly post-2012. Among these alternatives, technology-oriented agreements (TOAs) are perhaps the least well defined. We explore what TOAs may consist of, why they might be sensible, which TOAs already exist in international energy and environmental governance, and whether they could make a valuable contribution to addressing climate change. We find that TOAs aimed at knowledge sharing and coordination, research, development, or demonstration could increase the overall efficiency and effectiveness of international climate cooperation, but are likely to have limited environmental effectiveness on their own. Technology-transfer agreements are likely to have similar properties unless the level of resources expended is large, in which case they could be environmentally significant. Technology-specific mandates or incentives could be environmentally effective within the applicable sector, but are more likely to make a cost-effective contribution when viewed as a complement to rather than a substitute for flexible emissions-based policies. These results indicate that TOAs could potentially provide a valuable contribution to the global response to climate change. The success of specific TOAs will depend on their design, implementation, and the role they are expected to play relative to other components of the policy portfolio.     

Options of biofuel trade from Central and Eastern to Western European countries

Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) have a substantial biomass production and export potential. The objective of this study is to assess whether the market for biofuels and trade can be profitable enough to realize a supply of biofuels from the CEEC to the European market and to estimate the cost performance of the energy carriers delivered. Five NUTS-2 (Nomenclature d'Unités Territoriales Statistiques) regions with high biomass production potentials in Poland, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic were analysed for biofuel export options. From these regions pellets from willow can be provided to destination areas in Western European countries (WEC) at costs of 105.2–219.8 € t^?1. Ethanol can be provided at 11.95–20.89 € per GJ if the biomass conversion is performed at the destination areas in the WEC or at 14.84–17.83 € GJ^?1J if the biomass to ethanol conversion takes place (at small scale) at the CEEC region where the biomass is produced. Short sea shipping shows most cost advantages for longer distance international transport compared to inland waterway shipping and railway. Another reason for lower biofuel supply costs are shorter distances between the regions of biomass production and the destination areas. Therefore the Szczecin region in Poland, closely located to the Baltic Sea, shows a better economic performance for long distance trade of biomass production than the selected region in Hungary (‘land-locked’). It is concluded that in future key CEEC regions can supply (pre-treated) biomass and biofuels to the European market at cost levels, which are sound and attractive to current and expected diesel and gasoline prices.     

欧洲各国风力发电发展情况及有关政策的考察和几点建议

介绍了德国，西班牙和英国的风电发展成果以及规划和前景，介绍了三国政府积极发展风电所采取的各种政策和措施．并对这些政策作了分析，在这个基础对上海发展风电的政策提出了建议。     

Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies

This study examines the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of 9 Central and Eastern European frontier economies. Several different measures of financial development are examined including bank related variables and stock market variables. The empirical results, obtained from dynamic panel demand models, show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using banking variables like deposit money bank assets to GDP, financial system deposits to GDP, or liquid liabilities to GDP. Of the three stock market variables investigated, only one, stock market turnover, has a positive and statistically significant impact on energy consumption. Both short-run and long-run elasticities are presented. The implications of these results for energy policy are discussed.     

Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper uses an international multi-factor model in order to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and stock market returns for the emerging capital markets of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). A panel data approach is being employed for the period covering 22 October 1999 until 23 August 2007. The oil price beta is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting that the oil price is indeed an important factor in determining stock returns. No statistically significant non-linear dependency is found between market risk and emerging market stock returns or between oil price risk and returns. Observation of conditional models shows positive reaction of emerging stock market returns to upward movements of market returns. The reaction of the stock returns to upward and downward movements of the oil market is also negative but more significant when oil prices are low.     

Pollution and economic growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

We investigate the relationships between pollution and growth in eleven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Aggregate results, robust to different estimators and control variables, reveal an increasing nonlinear link between GDP and CO2 for the group of CEE countries. However, at a disaggregated, country-level, the relationship between GDP and CO2 is characterized by much diversity among CEE countries, namely: N-shaped, inverted-N, U-shaped, inverted-U, monotonic, or no statistical link. Thus, despite an aggregated upward trend, some CEE countries managed to secure both higher GDP and lower CO2 emissions. From a policy perspective, EU policymakers could pay more attention to these countries, and amend the current unique environmental policy to account for country-heterogeneities in order to support economic growth without damaging the environment.     

The impact of climate change on the European energy system

Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented.Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe.There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts.     

Climate change opportunities: Clean energy in Central and Eastern Europe

The Kyoto Protocol's flexible market mechanisms (Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET), for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide nations with the option of trading emission reductions between countries, and entities within them. JI is an attractive means to raise capital and to generate additional income for renewable energy, energy efficiency, CHP and fuel switching projects. At present at least 60 JI projects are at various stages of development in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Matthew Clayton, ESD, UK gives an overview of the current situation and opportunities in the region.     

The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues—which is illustrated by the controversy over the “no-regret potential”—would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach.     

Assessment of climate change impact on building energy use and mitigation measures in subtropical climates

Likely increase in energy use in air-conditioned office buildings due to climate change in subtropical Hong Kong was estimated for two emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century (i.e. 2091-2100), the average annual building energy use would be 6.6% and 8.1% more than that in 1979-2008 for low and medium forcing, respectively. Potential mitigation measures concerning the building envelope, internal condition, lighting load density (LLD) and chiller plant were considered. Thermal insulation to the external wall would not be effective to mitigate the expected increase in building energy use due to climate change. Controlling the amount of solar heat gain through the window would be a better option. Lowering the current LLD of 15 W/m² to about 13 W/m² would result in substantial energy savings because of the reduction in electricity consumption for both electric lighting and air-conditioning. As for the chiller plant, the coefficient of performance (COP) should be improved from the current minimum requirement of 4.7 to at least 5.5 to alleviate the impact of climate change. Raising the summer set point temperature (SST) to 25.5 °C or higher would have high energy saving and hence mitigation potential, which could be readily applied to both new and existing buildings.     

发达国家应对气候变化政策措施对我国的影响研究

气候变化是当今世界面临的重大威胁,对能源发展的影响正逐步加大。能源既是各国经济发展的发动机,又是温室气体最主要的排放源。气候变化问题日益成为世界各国在制定本国能源战略上无法回避的重要因素。本文简要剖析发达国家近年来为应对气候变化采取的政策措施,主要考察这些政策措施对国际能源技术发展的作用,并探讨其对我国能源政策的相关影响。     

The European climate change program: An evaluation of stakeholder involvement and policy achievements

In order to step up its efforts in reducing climate change, the European Commission (hereafter: the Commission) has launched in June 2000 its European climate change program (hereafter: ECCP). This wide-ranging stakeholder consultation aimed at identifying and developing all elements necessary for a European climate change strategy. The ECCP formally came to a close in April 2003.     

Co- and tri-generation contribution to climate change control

The conditions for co- and tri-generation to reduce CO₂ emissions are discussed as well as the global impact of these techniques if they were extensively used. CO₂ emissions saving will depend on several factors. First, on the efficiency of the co- and tri-generation unit, second on the CO₂ emissions of the electric network. CO₂ emissions savings will range from 10% to 50% or even more depending on the conditions. The best solutions correspond to the use of non-fossil fuel and total energy systems.     

如何发挥市场机制的作用应对气候变化

<正>如何发挥市场机制的作用来应对气候变化?首先要明确市场,这里所谈的市场问题,不是一般的市场问题。这里所讨论的是如何发挥市场的作用,来应对气候变化。一般的市场都是嫌贫爱富的,有市场就要盈利,参与市场的机构或个人提供市场     

First‐mover advantages of the European Union's climate change mitigation strategy

This paper assesses the costs and benefits for the European Union (EU) as a first mover in climate change mitigation. Scenarios of EU and global climate action to 2050 are quantified using the GEME3‐RD model, a global multi‐sectoral computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technology progress and detailed representation of the clean energy technologies. The model includes two‐factor learning curves (stock and research and development funding) for clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage, and renewable and efficient appliances. Funding of research and development is endogenously derived as a production factor enabling productivity improvement. The scenarios compare stylised climate strategies, which are asymmetric by world region and have different emission reduction profiles over time. Assuming that strong climate mitigation action will be undertaken only after 2030, the scenarios compare two main strategies for the EU: pursuing strong emission reduction unilaterally until 2030 versus deferring action for the period after 2030. Asymmetric climate action by region enables asymmetric innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies. The macroeconomic assessment of the climate action strategies does not only depend on costs of clean technologies but also on induced technology progress implying asymmetric effects on manufacturing and trade by region, taking into account spillovers. The model‐based projections show clear advantages for the EU as a first mover in climate change mitigation compared with a delaying of climate action until 2030. Delayed climate action until 2030 implies higher gross domestic product losses for the EU compared with unilateral action until 2030. The model finds benefits of early action by the EU driven by activity and progress related to clean energy technologies as the EU can achieve competitive advantages over other world regions pursuing climate action later. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated, and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will affect wave energy conversion. Where the resource is restricted, there may be reductions in energy exports and, consequently, negative economic impacts. On the other hand, increased storm activity will increase installation survival risks. Here a study is presented that, for the first time, indicates the sensitivity of wave energy production and economics to changes in climate.     

Stimulating the use of biofuels in the European Union: Implications for climate change policy

The substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels has been proposed in the European Union (EU) as part of a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from road transport, increase security of energy supply and support development of rural communities. In this paper, we focus on one of these purported benefits, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of subsidising the price difference between European bioethanol and petrol, and biodiesel and diesel, per tonne of CO₂ emissions saved are estimated. Without including the benefits from increased security of energy supply and employment generation in rural areas, the current costs of implementing European domestic biofuel targets are high compared with other available CO₂ mitigation strategies. The policy instrument of foregoing some or all of the excise duty and other taxes now applicable to transport fuels in EU15 on domestically produced biofuels, as well as the potential to import low-cost alternatives, for example, from Brazil, are addressed in this context.     

Using wood products to mitigate climate change: External costs and structural change

In this study we examine the use of wood products as a means to mitigate climate change. We describe the life cycle of wood products including forest growth, wood harvest and processing, and product use and disposal, focusing on the multiple roles of wood as both material and fuel. We present a comparative case study of a building constructed with either a wood or a reinforced concrete frame. We find that the production of wood building material uses less energy and emits less carbon than the production of reinforced concrete material. We compare the relative cost of the two building methods without environmental taxation, under the current Swedish industrial energy taxation regime, and in scenarios that incorporate estimates of the full social cost of carbon emission. We find that the inclusion of climate-related external costs improves the economic standing of wood construction vis-à-vis concrete construction. We conclude that policy instruments that internalise the external costs of carbon emission should encourage a structural change toward the increased use of sustainably produced wood products.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.