Structural maintenance planning based on historical data of corroded deck plates of tankers

A probabilistic maintenance and repair analysis of tanker deck plates subjected to general corrosion is presented. The decisions about when to perform maintenance and repair on the structure are studied. Different practical scenarios are analyzed and optimum repair times are proposed. The optimum repair age and intervals are defined based on the statistical analysis of operational data using the Weibull model and some assumptions about the inspection and time needed for repair. The total cost is calculated in normalized form.     

On a dynamic preventive maintenance policy for a system under inspection

The purpose of this article is to propose both state and time-dependent preventive maintenance policy for a multi-state deteriorating system, which is equipped with inspection equipment(s) connected to a computer center. After the system being identified as state x at nd through computation by the computer center after inspection (or measurement) via equipment(s), one maintenance action with the minimum expected total cost since nd till Nd (where N=n+K for a fixed integer 0<K<∞) will be chosen from the set A_x of alternatives also with the help of the computer center. In real case, the expected total costs since nd till Nd will be time-dependent and so is the maintenance action chosen at nd. A numerical example is given to illustrate such a maintenance policy for a Markovian deteriorating system to describe its state dependent aspect only for simplicity reason. Due to the fact that both equipment measurement and computer computation take time, the preventive maintenance policy for a sufficiently small d may be used in fact as the one under continuous inspection.     

Warranty and discrete preventive maintenance

In this paper two machine learning algorithms, decision trees (DT) and Hamming clustering (HC), are compared in building approximate reliability expression (RE). The main idea is to employ a classification technique, trained on a restricted subset of data, to produce an estimate of the RE, which provides reasonably accurate values of the reliability. The experiments show that although both methods yield excellent predictions, the HC procedure achieves better results with respect to the DT algorithm.     

A study of availability-centered preventive maintenance for multi-component systems

This paper studies preventive maintenance (PM) in simultaneously considering three actions, mechanical service, repair and replacement for a multi-components system based on availability. Mechanical service denotes the activities including lubricating, cleaning, checking and adjusting, etc. which is set to alleviate strength degradation. Repair is defined on that not only slow down the degraded velocity but also restore the degraded strength partly. Replacement is settled to recover a component to its original condition. According to the definitions, the degradation of components is analyzed from its failure mechanisms and the improvements of various actions to it in reliability were measured by using two improved factors. Following the proposed model of reliability, the mean-up and mean-down times of each component are also investigated and the replacement intervals of components are determined based on availability maximization. Here, the minimum one among the intervals is chosen as the PM interval of system for programming the periodical PM policy. The selection of action for the components on every PM stage is decided by maximizing system benefit in maintenance. Repeatedly, the scheduling is progressed step by step and is terminated until the system extended life reaching to its expected life. The complete schedule provides the information, the actions adopted for the components, the availability and the total cost of system on each stage. Validly, a multi-components system is used as an example to describe the proposed algorithm.     

Cost and reliability based strategies for fatigue maintenance planning of floating structures

Floating structures are designed in such way that the appearance of fatigue failures cannot be avoided, implying the need for inspections during their life. Their maintenance has to be planned from an economic point of view so as to minimize maintenance costs but satisfying a minimum reliability level. A method is proposed to quantify the repair costs resulting of different reliability-based maintenance strategies. As an application of this approach a side shell structure typical of a floating production unit is analysed and the influence of different parameter with respect to the repair cost is also studied here.     

A summary of maintenance policies for a finite interval

It would be an important problem to consider practically some maintenance policies for a finite time span, because the working times of most units are finite in actual fields. This paper converts the usual maintenance models to finite maintenance models. It is more difficult to study theoretically optimal policies for a finite time span than those for an infinite time span. Three usual models of periodic replacement with minimal repair, block replacement and simple replacement are transformed to finite replacement models. Further, optimal periodic and sequential policies for an imperfect preventive maintenance and an inspection model for a finite time span are considered. Optimal policies for each model are analytically derived and are numerically computed.     

Optimizing preventive maintenance for mechanical components using genetic algorithms

This paper presents periodic preventive maintenance (PM) of a system with deteriorated components. Two activities, simple preventive maintenance and preventive replacement, are simultaneously considered to arrange the PM schedule of a system. A simple PM is to recover the degraded component to some level of the original condition according to an improvement factor which is determined by a quantitative assessment process. A preventive replacement is to restore the aged component by a new one. The degraded behavior of components is modeled by a dynamic reliability equation, and the effect of PM activities to reliability and failure rate of components is formulated based on age reduction model. While scheduling the PM policy, the PM components within a system are first identified. The maintenance cost and the extended life of the system under any activities-combination, which represents what kind of activities taken for these chosen components, are analyzed for evaluating the unit-cost life of the system. The optimal activities-combination at each PM stage is decided by using genetic algorithm in maximizing the system unit-cost life. Repeatedly, the PM scheduling is progressed to the next stage until the system's unit-cost life is less than its discarded life. Appropriately a mechatronic system is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed algorithm.     

An exact algorithm for preventive maintenance planning of series-parallel systems

Reliability is a meaningful parameter in assessing the performance of systems such as chemical processing facilities, power plant, aircrafts, ships, etc. In the literature, reliability optimization is widely considered during the system design phase and it is carried out by an opportune selection of both system components and redundancy. On the other hand, the problem of maintaining a required level of reliability by an opportune maintenance policy has been poorly examined. The paper tackles this problem for a system whose major components can be maintained only during a planned system downtime. An exact algorithm is proposed in order to single out the set of components that must be maintained to guarantee a required reliability level up to the next planned stop with the minimum cost. In order to verify the algorithm effectiveness, it has been applied to a complex real case regarding ship maintenance.     

Monitoring and maintenance of spares and one shot devices

Many one shot devices are kept in storage and taken into use when required. This paper examines the deterioration of the devices when in storage. For a complex device limited non-destructive testing and repair is possible short of using it in a destructive test. The tests are not perfect and can give false positive and false negative results. When a fault is indicated a minimal repair is carried out. The objective is to establish levels of reliability of individual components which together with the inspection regime give a particular level of reliability in the delivered components. Assuming a general distribution for the time to fail in storage the likelihood is developed and used to estimate the parameters of the model. The estimated model can then be used to explore different inspection and repair policies.     

Determination of Pareto frontier in multi-objective maintenance optimization

The objective of a maintenance policy generally is the global maintenance cost minimization that involves not only the direct costs for both the maintenance actions and the spare parts, but also those ones due to the system stop for preventive maintenance and the downtime for failure. For some operating systems, the failure event can be dangerous so that they are asked to operate assuring a very high reliability level between two consecutive fixed stops. The present paper attempts to individuate the set of elements on which performing maintenance actions so that the system can assure the required reliability level until the next fixed stop for maintenance, minimizing both the global maintenance cost and the total maintenance time. In order to solve the previous constrained multi-objective optimization problem, an effective approach is proposed to obtain the best solutions (that is the Pareto optimal frontier) among which the decision maker will choose the more suitable one. As well known, describing the whole Pareto optimal frontier generally is a troublesome task. The paper proposes an algorithm able to rapidly overcome this problem and its effectiveness is shown by an application to a case study regarding a complex series-parallel system.     

Control-limit preventive maintenance policies for components subject to imperfect preventive maintenance and variable operational conditions

This paper develops two component-level control-limit preventive maintenance (PM) policies for systems subject to the joint effect of partial recovery PM acts (imperfect PM acts) and variable operational conditions, and investigates the properties of the proposed policies. The extended proportional hazards model (EPHM) is used to model the system failure likelihood influenced by both factors. Several numerical experiments are conducted for policy property analysis, using real lifetime and operational condition data and typical characterization of imperfect PM acts and maintenance durations. The experimental results demonstrate the necessity of considering both factors when they do exist, characterize the joint effect of the two factors on the performance of an optimized PM policy, and explore the influence of the loading sequence of time-varying operational conditions on the performance of an optimized PM policy. The proposed policies extend the applicability of PM optimization techniques.     

New method to minimize the preventive maintenance cost of series–parallel systems

General preventive maintenance model for input components of a system, which improves the reliability to ‘as good as new,’ was used to optimize the maintenance cost. The cost function of a maintenance policy was minimized under given availability constraint. An algorithm for first inspection vector of times was described and used on selected system example. A special ratio-criterion, based on the time dependent Birnbaum importance factor, was used to generate the ordered sequence of first inspection times. Basic system availability calculations of the paper were done by using simulation approach with parallel simulation algorithm for availability analysis. These calculations, based on direct Monte Carlo technique, were applied within the programming tool Matlab. A genetic algorithm optimization technique was used and briefly described to create the Matlab's algorithm to solve the problem of finding the best maintenance policy with a given restriction. Adjacent problem, which we called ‘reliability assurance,’ was also theoretically solved, concerning the increase of the cost when asymptotic availability value conforms to a given availability constraint.     

A full history proportional hazards model for preventive maintenance scheduling

This paper is concerned with the development of a realistic preventive maintenance (PM) scheduling model. A heuristic approach for implementing the semi-parametric proportional-hazards model (PHM) to schedule the next preventive maintenance interval on the basis of the equipment's full condition history is introduced. This heuristic can be used with repairable systems and does not require the unrealistic assumption of renewal during repair, or even during PM. Two PHMs are fitted, for the life of equipment following corrective work and the life of equipment following PM, using appropriate explanatory variables. These models are then used within a simulation framework to schedule the next preventive maintenance interval. Optimal PM schedules are estimated using two different criteria, namely maximizing availability over a single PM interval and over a fixed horizon. History data from a set of four pumps operating in a continuous process industry is also used to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results indicate a higher availability for the recommended schedule than the availability resulting from applying the optimal PM intervals as suggested by using the conventional stationary models. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accounting for maintenance in a computer memory reliability prediction model

This paper reviews the benefit of periodic maintenance for improving the reliability of computer memory protected by error detection and correction (EDAC), and presents a new memory reliability model that accounts for such maintenance. Mean time to failure (MTTF) has been the traditional figure of merit for assessing the benefit of memory maintenance. This paper proposes failure probability calculated at maintenance intervals as a more meaningful figure of merit for periodically maintained systems and presents examples using the new model.     

The use of models in reliability

The paper reviews the scientific and philosophical basis of the use of models in engineering, particularly in reliability engineering, and their credibility in predicting future outcomes.     

A nonlinear mixed-effects model for degradation data obtained from in-service inspections

Monitoring of degradation and predicting its progression using periodic inspection data are important to ensure safety and reliability of engineering systems. Traditional regression models are inadequate in modeling the periodic inspection data, as it ignores units specific random effects and potential correlation among repeated measurements. This paper presents an advanced nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model, generally adopted in bio-statistical literature, for modeling and predicting degradation in nuclear piping system. The proposed model offers considerable improvement by reducing the variance associated with degradation of a specific unit, which leads to more realistic estimates of risk.     

Analysis of on-line maintenance strategies for -out-of- standby safety systems

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of three on-line test and maintenance strategies (corrective maintenance, preventive maintenance and predictive maintenance) for standby k-out-of-n safety systems. Each channel of the k-out-of-n system is modelled by an age-dependent unavailability model to reflect the effect of maintenance on the aging process. The system unavailability, the probability of spurious operation and the overall cost under the above maintenance strategies are analyzed and compared to obtain the optimal maintenance strategy. Sensitivity analyses are performed to reveal the effect of different model parameters on the system performance. A standby safety system in Canadian Deuterium–Uranium (CANDU) Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), the Shutdown System Number One (SDS1), is used to illustrate the proposed analysis and the procedure. It is concluded that maintenance should neither be performed too frequently nor too rarely. When the system deteriorates very slowly, the corrective maintenance is more preferable than the preventive and predictive maintenance. When the failure rate of the system is high, the preventive maintenance results in the best system performance.     

New methods to minimize the preventive maintenance cost of series–parallel systems using ant colony optimization

This article is based on a previous study made by Bris, Châtelet and Yalaoui [Bris R, Chatelet E, Yalaoui F. New method to minimise the preventive maintenance cost of series–parallel systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2003;82:247–55]. They use genetic algorithm to minimize preventive maintenance cost problem for the series–parallel systems. We propose to improve their results developing a new method based on another technique, the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). The resolution consists in determining the solution vector of system component inspection periods, T_P. Those calculations were applied within the programming tool Matlab. Thus, highly interesting results and improvements of previous studies were obtained.     

The Folded Normal Distribution: Accuracy of Estimation By Maximum Likelihood

This paper is a sequel to two previous papers on the subject of the Folded Normal Distribution appearing in Technometrics, S, pp. 543–550 and 551–562, (1961). In these earlier papers methods for estimating the parameters of the Folded Normal Distribution were proposed. Thii paper gives approximations for the standard errors for the maximum liklihood estimates of these parameters.     

Investigating reliability improvement of second-hand production equipment considering warranty and preventive maintenance strategies

A cost model for optimal reliability improvement of warranted second-hand production equipment is developed. The second-hand production equipment of age x is subjected to an upgrade action of a certain level u before it is sold with a Free Repair Warranty. We look at determining the optimal upgrade level when not performing and when performing periodic preventive maintenance (PM) during the warranty period. Two different PM strategies are considered: (a) periodic PM actions having the same efficiency level; (b) periodic multi-phase PM actions with a maintenance efficiency level which varies according to the phase. The proposed model aims at helping the dealer to find the optimal upgrade level to perform before selling the second-hand equipment, and to assess whether performing PM actions during the warranty period, according to a specific maintenance strategy, is worthwhile in terms of cost reduction. Numerical experimentations considering each PM scenario are performed in order to investigate how each PM strategy impacts the improvement level to be performed and the associated total expected cost. The obtained results showed that the expected total cost incurred by the dealer is governed by a sensitive trade-off between the warranty servicing cost and the costs associated with the reliability improvement, and with the PM performed during the warranty period. It is also found that the proposed new periodic multi-phase PM policy with an increasing maintenance efficiency level yields lower upgrade levels, inducing lower costs for the dealer.