Underestimating the Duration of Future Events: Memory Incorrectly Used or Memory Bias?

People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process, people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook. A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to a different, although not mutually exclusive, explanation: People base predictions of future duration on their memories of how long past events have taken, but these memories are systematic underestimates of past duration. People appear to underestimate future event duration because they underestimate past event duration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The broad applicability of memory bias and its coexistence with the planning fallacy: Reply to Griffin and Buehler (2005).

People chronically underestimate how long tasks will take. In their original article, the present authors (M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, & C. R. M. McKenzie, see record 2005-11504-008) suggested a simple, broadly applicable explanation: Biased predictions result from biased memories. In their comment article, D. Griffin and R. Buehler (see record 2005-11504-009) suggested that in many domains in which this memory-bias account appears to outpredict their own account, theirs actually makes no prediction at all. However, the present authors did not suggest that only 1 theory is right but that theirs is consistent with data that prior theories, including their own, cannot explain. Ignoring memories of past tasks is not a complete explanation for the phenomenon if the memories people could consult are themselves biased. Nonetheless, underestimating future task duration is almost certainly multiply determined, and thus our account and theirs can coexist. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Audience-tuning effects on memory: The role of shared reality.

After tuning to an audience, communicators' own memories for the topic often reflect the biased view expressed in their messages. Three studies examined explanations for this bias. Memories for a target person were biased when feedback signaled the audience's successful identification of the target but not after failed identification (Experiment 1). Whereas communicators tuning to an in-group audience exhibited the bias, communicators tuning to an out-group audience did not (Experiment 2). These differences did not depend on communicators' mood but were mediated by communicators' trust in their audience's judgment about other people (Experiments 2 and 3). Message and memory were more closely associated for high than for low trusters. Apparently, audience-tuning effects depend on the communicators' experience of a shared reality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Strong memories are hard to scale.

People are generally skilled at using a confidence scale to rate the strength of their memories over a wide range. Specifically, low-confidence recognition decisions are often associated with close-to-chance accuracy, whereas high-confidence recognition decisions can be associated with close-to-perfect accuracy. However, using a 20-point rating scale, the authors found that the ability to scale memory strength had its limitations in that a high proportion of list items received the highest rating of 20. Efforts to induce participants to differentiate between these strong memories using emphatic instructions and alternative scales were not successful. Remember/know judgments indicated that these strong and hard-to-scale memories were often based on familiarity (not just recollection). Providing error feedback on a plurals discrimination task finally produced a high-confidence criterion shift. The authors suggest that the ability to scale strong (and almost perfectly accurate) memories may be limited because of the absence of differential error feedback for very strong memories in the past (the kind of differential error feedback that may account for the memory-scaling expertise that participants otherwise exhibit). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Proactive effects in pigeons' memory for event duration: Evidence for analogical retention.

An intratrial proactive interference design was used to examine the nature of pigeons' memory for duration in a delayed matching task. Short (2 s) or long (10 s) target samples were preceded on test trials by a short or long presample. The durations were consistent on some trials (short-short or long-long) and inconsistent on others (short-long or long-short). Contrary to predictions based on prospective or categorical coding, accuracy was not related to duration consistency. Instead, accuracy was reduced on short-short and long-short trials and somewhat enhanced on short-long and long-long trials, suggesting that the Ss "summed across" the durations. This occurred even with a 10-s interstimulus interval (Experiment 1) and even when the presample and target sample were physically distinct (Experiment 2). Results suggest that pigeons remember event durations in an analogical and retrospective fashion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Processing of ambiguous and unambiguous feedback by depressed and nondepressed college students: Schematic biases and their implications for depressive realism.

Explored schematic processing as a mechanism for predicting (a) when depressed Ss would be negative relative to nondepressed Ss and (b) when depressed and nondepressed Ss would show biased or unbiased (i.e., "realistic") processing. Depressed and nondepressed Ss performed multiple trials of a task under conditions in which the 2 groups held either equivalent or different schemas regarding this task. Ss received either an unambiguous or objectively normed ambiguous feedback cue on each trial. In full support of schematic processing, depressed Ss showed negative encoding relative to nondepressed Ss only when their schemas were more negative, and both depressed and nondepressed Ss showed positively biased, negatively biased, and unbiased encoding depending on the relative feedback cue-to-schema match. Depressed and nondepressed Ss' response latencies to unambiguous feedback also supported the occurrence of schematic processing. We discuss the methodological, treatment, and "realism" implications of these findings and suggest a more precise formulation of Beck's schema theory of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Examining the relationship between current attachment status and freely recalled autobiographical memories of childhood.

This study investigated the relationship between individual differences in attachment and the free recall of childhood memories. Specifically, it focuses on how attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance, using the Experiences in Close Relationship Scale self-report, relate to the affective quality and the presence of caregivers in memories from childhood. Participants were 79 undergraduate and masters students attending a northeast university. Participants completed a memory task designed to elicit freely recalled memories from childhood. They then rated the affective valence (positive/negative) and intensity of each memory, and identified memories in which caretakers were present. Attachment avoidance was related to recalling more negative memories involving caretakers and was negatively related to the average intensity of memories involving caretakers. The results support and extend previous research suggesting that affect regulation strategies employed by individuals high in attachment anxiety and high in attachment avoidance are linked to differences in how information about the past is recalled. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Judged happiness: Effects of mode of recall of positive and negative experiences.

Obtained ratings of happiness with life in general from 159 undergraduate Ss before or after estimates of how often they felt either delight or annoyance. Estimates were made both in terms of absolute frequency categories and in self-ratings, and half of the Ss were instructed to base their frequency ratings on detailed memories for actual events. Comparative ratings of delight were positively related to overall happiness, regardless of experimental condition, although the direction of correlation between comparative ratings of annoyance and overall happiness depended on the condition. For Ss who rated annoyance before happiness, those who reported relatively more annoyance than others gave lower ratings of general happiness when using vivid, detailed, recalled events, but not under nonvivid recall. The pattern was reversed when happiness was rated before annoyance. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Autobiographical elaboration reduces memory distortion: Cognitive operations and the distinctiveness heuristic.

Retrieval monitoring enhances episodic memory accuracy. For instance, false recognition is reduced when participants base their decisions on more distinctive recollections, a retrieval monitoring process called the distinctiveness heuristic. The experiments reported here tested the hypothesis that autobiographical elaboration during study (i.e., generating autobiographical memories in response to cue words) would lead to more distinctive recollections than other item-specific encoding tasks, enhancing retrieval monitoring accuracy at test. Consistent with this hypothesis, false recognition was less likely when participants had to search their memory for previous autobiographical elaborations, compared to previous semantic judgments. These false recognition effects were dissociated from true recognition effects across four experiments, implicating a recollection-based monitoring process that was independent from familiarity-based processes. Separately obtained subjective measures provided converging evidence for this conclusion. The cognitive operations engaged during autobiographical elaboration can lead to distinctive recollections, making them less prone to memory distortion than other types of deep or semantic encoding. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Does a time-monitoring deficit influence older adults' delayed retrieval shift during skill acquisition?

The authors evaluated age-related time-monitoring deficits and their contribution to older adults' reluctance to shift to memory retrieval in the noun-pair lookup (NP) task. Older adults (M = 67 years) showed slower rates of response time (RT) improvements than younger adults (M = 19 years), because of a delayed strategy shift. Older adults estimated scanning latencies as being faster than they actually were and showed poor resolution in discriminating short from long RTs early in practice. The difference in estimated RT for retrieval and scanning strategies predicted retrieval use, independent of actual RT differences. Separate scanning and recognition memory tasks revealed larger time-monitoring differences for older adults than in the NP task. Apparently, the context of heterogeneous RTs as a result of strategy use in the NP task improved older adults' accuracy of RT estimates. RT feedback had complex effects on time-monitoring accuracy, although it generally improved absolute and relative accuracy of RT estimates. Feedback caused older adults to shift more rapidly to the retrieval strategy in the NP task. Results suggest that deficient time monitoring plays a role in older adults' delayed retrieval shift, although other factors (e.g., confidence in the retrieval strategy) also play a role. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Differential effects of auditory and visual signals on clock speed and temporal memory.

The effects of signal modality on duration classification in college students were studied with the duration bisection task. When auditory and visual signals were presented in the same test session and shared common anchor durations, visual signals were classified as shorter than equivalent duration auditory signals. This occurred when auditory and visual signals were presented sequentially in the same test session and when presented simultaneously but asynchronously. Presentation of a single modality signal within a test session, or both modalities but with different anchor durations did not result in classification differences. The authors posit a model in which auditory and visual signals drive an internal clock at different rates. The clock rate difference is due to an attentional effect on the mode switch and is revealed only when the memories for the short and long anchor durations consist of a mix of contributions from accumulations generated by both the fast auditory and slower visual clock rates. When this occurs auditory signals seem longer than visual signals relative to the composite memory representation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

When feedback is ignored: Disutility of outcome feedback.

On the basis of the theory of human judgment and decision making outlined by K. R. Hammond et al (1980), 2 types of feedback are conceptualized. Outcome feedback is information that describes the accuracy of the response, while cognitive feedback represents information regarding the reasons for this accuracy. The present experiment tested the hypothesis that outcome feedback that contains neither predictive nor explanatory value would be less likely to be used by better- as compared to poorer-performing security analysts. 17 Ss performed a realistic decision-making task using actual fundamental factor information on stock performance. Results support the hypothesis in that better-performing Ss were more likely to ignore outcome-only feedback. Implications for the revision of theories on decision making are discussed. (46 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Memory predictions for recall and recognition in first-, third-, and fifth-grade children.

114 1st, 3rd, and 5th graders were administered 4 tasks that assessed their accuracy in predicting future memory. Two tasks required recall and 2 required recognition. For each type, one version involved a word list, the other a sentence list. As expected, accuracy at predicting recall performance improved across grades, but accuracy to predicting recognition did not. Examination of Ss' predictions revealed that there was no systematic differentiation of task difficulty. (8 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Metamemory and prospective memory in Parkinson's disease.

Objective: Metamemory is integral for strategizing about memory intentions. This study investigated the prospective memory (PM) deficit in Parkinson's disease (PD) from a metamemory viewpoint, with the aim of examining whether metamemory deficits might contribute to PM deficits in PD. Method: Sixteen patients with PD and 16 healthy older adult controls completed a time-based PM task (initiating a key press at two specified times during an ongoing task), and an event-based PM task (initiating a key press in response to animal words during an ongoing task). To measure metamemory participants were asked to predict and postdict their memory performance before and after completing the tasks, as well as complete a self-report questionnaire regarding their everyday memory function. Results: The PD group had no impairment, relative to controls, on the event-based task, but had prospective (initiating the key press) and retrospective (recalling the instructions) impairments on the time-based task. The PD group also had metamemory impairments on the time-based task; they were inaccurate at predicting their performance before doing the task but, became accurate when making postdictions. This suggests impaired metamemory knowledge but preserved metamemory monitoring. There were no group differences regarding PD patients' self-reported PM performance on the questionnaire. Conclusions: These results reinforce previous findings that PM impairments in PD are dependent on task type. Several accounts of PM failures in time-based tasks are presented, in particular, ways in which mnemonic and metacognitive deficits may contribute to the difficulties observed on the time-based task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Autobiographical memory in suicide attempters.

Examined both hedonic and nonhedonic aspects of autobiographical memory in 25 patients (mean age 31 yrs) who had recently attempted suicide by overdose, 25 hospital patients (clinical nonoverdose controls), and 25 Ss recruited from the authors' S panel (panel controls). Ss completed the Profile of Mood States, an autobiographical memory test, and semantic memory tasks. Results indicate that attempted-suicide Ss, who were required to retrieve specific personal memories to positive or negative cue words, showed biased retrieval when their performance was compared with that of control groups, but the bias was due to delayed retrieval of positive memories rather than to speeded retrieval of negative memories. At least part of this effect was due to inappropriate retrieval strategies that yielded general, rather than specific, memories in the overdose group, a finding that may have implications for associative network models of emotional memory. (28 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Through the looking glass clearly: Accuracy and assumed similarity in well-adjusted individuals' first impressions.

Do well-adjusted individuals have particularly accurate insight into what others are like or are they biased, primarily seeing their own characteristics in others? In the current studies, the authors examined how psychologically adjusted individuals tend to see new acquaintances, directly comparing their levels of distinctive accuracy (accurately perceiving others' unique characteristics), normative accuracy (perceiving others as similar to the average person), and assumed similarity (perceiving others as similar to the self). Across two interactive, round-robin studies, well-adjusted individuals, compared with less adjusted individuals, did not perceive new acquaintances' unique characteristics more accurately but did perceive new acquaintances, on average, as similar to the average person, reflecting an accurate understanding of what people generally tend to be like. Furthermore, well-adjusted individuals had a biased tendency to perceive their own unique characteristics in others. Of note, both pre-existing perceiver adjustment and target-specific liking independently predicted greater accuracy and assumed similarity in first impressions. In sum, well-adjusted individuals see through the looking glass clearly: although they erroneously see others as possessing their own unique characteristics, they accurately understand what others generally tend to be like. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Are the memories of older adults positively biased?

There is disagreement in the literature about whether a "positivity effect" in memory performance exists in older adults. To assess the generalizability of the effect, the authors examined memory for autobiographical, picture, and word information in a group of younger (17-29 years old) and older (60-84 years old) adults. For the autobiographical memory task, the authors asked participants to produce 4 positive, 4 negative, and 4 neutral recent autobiographical memories and to recall these a week later. For the picture and word tasks, participants studied photos or words of different valences (positive, negative, neutral) and later remembered them on a free-recall test. The authors found significant correlations in memory performance, across task material, for recall of both positive and neutral valence autobiographical events, pictures, and words. When the authors examined accurate memories, they failed to find consistent evidence, across the different types of material, of a positivity effect in either age group. However, the false memory findings offer more consistent support for a positivity effect in older adults. During recall of all 3 types of material, older participants recalled more false positive than false negative memories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Choice-supportive source monitoring: Do our decisions seem better to us as we age?

Participants were given several 2-option choices and then asked to review how they felt about their decisions, to review the details of their decisions, or to do an unrelated task. When later asked to attribute features to the previous options, in each condition older adults (64–83 years) attributed significantly more positive and fewer negative features to their chosen options than to foregone options. Younger adults' (18–22 years) attributions were as choice-supportive as those of older adults in the affective review condition but were less so in the other conditions. The age difference was present even when older and younger adults were equated for source identification and recognition accuracy. This study suggests that as people age, their tendency to distort memory in favor of the options they chose increases. In addition, it suggests that affectively reviewing choices increases younger adults' tendency toward choice-supportive memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Emergence of Autobiographical Memory: A Social Cultural Developmental Theory.

The authors present a multicomponent dynamic developmental theory of human autobiographical memory that emerges gradually across the preschool years. The components that contribute to the process of emergence include basic memory abilities, language and narrative, adult memory talk, temporal understanding, and understanding of self and others. The authors review the empirical developmental evidence within each of these components to show how each contributes to the timing, quantity, and quality of personal memories from the early years of life. The authors then consider the relevance of the theory to explanations of childhood amnesia and how the theory accounts for and predicts the complex findings on adults' earliest memories, including individual, gender, and cultural differences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Individual memory change after anterior temporal lobectomy: a base rate analysis using regression-based outcome methodology

PURPOSE: To characterize patterns of base rate change on measures of verbal and visual memory after anterior temporal lobectomy (ATL) using a newly developed regression-based outcome methodology that accounts for effects of practice and regression towards the mean, and to comment on the predictive utility of baseline memory measures on postoperative memory outcome. METHODS: Memory change was operationalized using regression-based change norms in a group of left (n = 53) and right (n = 48) ATL patients. All patients were administered tests of episodic verbal (prose recall, list learning) and visual (figure reproduction) memory, and semantic memory before and after ATL. RESULTS: ATL patients displayed a wide range of memory outcome across verbal and visual memory domains. Significant performance declines were noted for 25-50% of left ATL patients on verbal semantic and episodic memory tasks, while one-third of right ATL patients displayed significant declines in immediate and delayed episodic prose recall. Significant performance improvement was noted in an additional one-third of right ATL patients on delayed prose recall. Base rate change was similar between the two ATL groups across immediate and delayed visual memory. Approximately one-fourth of all patients displayed clinically meaningful losses on the visual memory task following surgery. Robust relationships between preoperative memory measures and nonstandardized change scores were attenuated or reversed using standardized memory outcome techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrated substantial group variability in memory outcome for ATL patients. These results extend previous research by incorporating known effects of practice and regression to the mean when addressing meaningful neuropsychological change following epilepsy surgery. Our findings also suggest that future neuropsychological outcome studies should take steps towards controlling for regression-to-the-mean before drawing predictive conclusions.