Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics for China

The population dynamics of China are presented in a multiregional demographic model using regional estimates or mortality and migration based on the 1% population sample survey in 1987. An open ended population account is generated for period cohort a, gender g of region i (urban) and j (rural) using population, birth, death, and migration. Demographic rates and equations for flows of nonsurviving migrants of period cohort a of gender g are estimated using the forward demographic rate definition. Out-migration rates for period cohort a of gender g are defined by migration flow divided by the initial population. The death rate for period cohort A1 and A are estimated using a single region method. Death and migration rates are simultaneously estimated with an iterative procedure. The population accounts estimates and demographic rates are provided for the period ending 1986-87 for male births, males in period cohorts 10 and 20, female births, and females in period cohorts 10 and 20. The urban and rural population projection model is based on the population accounts concept and assumes fixed rates of mortality, migration, and normal fertility for the base year 1987. The results of this projection are a population of 1090 million that will grow to 1304 million in 2000, 1720 million in 2050, and 1791 million in 2087. Urban population will expand from 44.2% in 1988 to 46.6% in 2000, and 54.7% in 2087. The labor population of males 18-65 years and females 18-60 years will increase from 58.8% in 1988 to 59.7% in 2000 and decline to 58.4% by 2087. The old age population of males 65 years and females 60 years will increase from 6.5% in 1988 to 7.9% in 2000, and 16.3% in 2087. The mean age increased from 28.3 years in 1988 to 37 in 2087. Urban population may be underprojected; migration problems are recognized. Fertility also is likely to decline. An alternative projection (B) is given to account for the U-shape distribution and urban fertility of 1.8 in 2000, increasing to and stabilizing at 2.2 in 2020, such that population estimates for 2000 are 1291 and 1524 for 2087 with a peak in 2048 of 1573. A faster fertility decline is also used to generate projection C. The author's projections A, B, and C, which are based on more recent data and a more realistic model, are than the "objective projection" and than the "warning projection" generated by China's Population Census Office based on 1982 census data.     

新时期的“小城镇、大战略”——试论人口高输出地区的小城镇发展机制

在全面认识我国城镇化发展趋势的基础上指出,要使超过2亿农民工平稳完成城镇化转型的进程,除了要关注人口导入地的城市群资源集聚效应以外,还必须重视人口输出地的农村经济中心——即小城镇在城镇化进程中的作用文献分析和案例研究表明,小城镇发展的动力机制不仅仅在于工业化,更重要的是农村人口对城镇服务的内在需求,包括住房、教育和人居环境等多年来小城镇发展滞后于城市,其背后有着一系列的社会、经济和制度等原因为此提出,新时期小城镇发展仍然是城镇化进程中的一项"大战略",但是发展思路需转变总之,人口高输出地区的小城镇是我国未来健康城镇化发展的重要组成部分,关系着我国健康城镇化是否能够顺利推进和实现也可以说,新时期的"小城镇、大战略"要有新的内涵。     

Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."     

On the contribution of out-migration to changes in net migration: A time series confirmation of Beale's cross-sectional results

Recent cross-sectional studies of population migration patterns have consistently failed to find any relationship between the economic conditions prevalent in an area and the propensity of its inhabitants to emigrate. Changes in the rate of out-migration apparently occur only slowly as the age composition and mobility history of the population change. Thus, in the short run, changes in out-migration are small and contribute little to changes in net migration. This article tests this model of the migration process by making a time series analysis of gross and net migration between Japanese prefectures. We find that, among rural areas, changes in out-migration are a consistently significant component of changes in net migration. If changes in net migration reflect changes in economic conditions in these areas, then one can only conclude that the latter do have an effect on out-migration rates, an effect which is missed by cross-sectional studies. Beale's graphical analysis, which is also cross-sectional, is a notable exception and would have predicted our results.This study was supported in part by a grant from the National Science Foundation.     

Determinants of fertility in urban and rural Kenya: estimates and a simulation of the impact of education policy

Fertility behavior and population growth and its impact on economics in Kenya are a concern because of recent trends. The aim of this research study was to examine the impact of multiple factors on fertility in urban and rural areas based on the 1984 Kenya contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Simulation models were used to project the number of births expected with the current educational program. The expectation was that increasing female education in rural areas would have an impact on birth probabilities. Policy implications are discussed in terms of increasing educational expenditures, particularly for rural women. The empirical model selected was based on theories on proximate determinants, demographic effects, and neoclassical models. A probit model was used to estimate whether or not a woman had a child in the year preceding the survey. Explanatory variables were economic (female employment and years of schooling), biological (mother's age and child mortality), and cultural (marital state, number of live births, and religion). The sample included 6405 women aged 15-49 years. Married urban women were 37% more likely than unmarried urban women to have given birth. Married rural women in monogamous marriages were 23% more likely to have given birth than their unmarried counterparts. The number in a marital union of wives did not affect the probability of birth in urban areas; the effect was quite small in rural areas. Probability of birth increased until age 25 in urban areas and to age 28 in rural areas. Previous live births had a small impact, and the inhibiting effect of an additional child is 2.7 times larger in urban than in rural areas. Only in urban areas did employment reduce the probability of a birth (by 7.4%). In rural areas, increases in education after the primary level were related to a decline in the probability of a birth (for a 26-year old woman there is a reduction in the probability of .18). The fertility rate of a woman completing secondary school was 3.5 and 7.8 for a woman completing primary school. There were no differences in urban Nairobi and Mombasa. The total fertility rate should decline by 25% between 1984 and 2014, and should fall further based on educational increases which affect family planning use, employment, and infant mortality. By 2014, the savings in education and related expenses for reduction in births of 5.8 million will be considerable.     

The undermining of rural labor out-migration by household strategies in China's migrant-sending areas: The case of Nanyang,Henan Province

Although migrant labor shortages have affected migrant-receiving areas in Eastern China for many years, research shows that there is still an abundance of laborers in rural China. Therefore, the dynamics that undermine the out-migration of rural laborers in migrant-sending areas is a critical factor in the pace of China's urbanization process. Public policies promulgated by the central government focus on institutional reform, such as offering urban hukou³ to rural migrants. Still, the decision-making processes of rural villagers and potential migrants remain unclear. Based on a case study of 32 townships in Nanyang, and further investigation in nine migrant-sending provinces, this paper probes into the livelihood strategies of rural households, rather than accepting the current conclusions of many Western research models. Preliminary findings reveal that rural livelihood strategies are undermining further out-migration of rural laborers in migrant-sending areas in three ways: 1) income diversification strategies that reflect emerging local off-farm job opportunities; 2) peri-urbanization driven by rural hukou that rural residents find increasingly attractive compared to urban hukou; and 3) localized urbanization driven by rural industrialization, better public services and rural residents' desire to keep families intact. These findings differ from previous explanations of the coexistence of migrant labor shortages and an abundant rural labor supply. Most importantly, they suggest that opening urban hukou entitlement will not promote further rural-to-urban migration per se to the extent that is generally assumed, unless a more coordinated rural–urban development model can be achieved to change rural household livelihood diversification strategies.     

居民点重构——经济发达地区的一种城市化模式

学术界通常都认为城市化是人口由农村向城市集中的过程。实际上 ,城市化是一个连续、渐进的过程 ,近年来在经济发达地区出现的农村居民点的整合与重构 ,使农民的生活方式逐步实现由农村向城市的转化。这种人口由自然村向中心村镇的集中也应看作是城市化的一种形式。在一些发达地区出现的中心村建设的热点现象值得人们关注     

Assessing equity and urban/rural road safety disparities in the US

Road fatalities erase more healthy years of life than cancer and heart disease combined. Considering safety as a health impact begs the question: Who is most impacted? Are there urban/rural differences? How equitable are impacts along racial/ethnic lines or with income differences? Via spatial analysis of over 970,000 geocoded US road fatalities over a 24-year period, our results show that Americans are not bearing these impacts equitably. We find road fatality disparities across racial/ethnic lines, particularly for pedestrians/bicyclists in predominantly black or Hispanic neighborhoods. Lower income neighborhoods suffer from vehicle occupant fatality rates 3.5X higher than wealthier neighborhoods. Also, residents of our most rural areas endure fatality rates approximately 6X higher than our most urban areas. This suggests that transportation and land use planning intended to facilitate more access with less mobility can reduce unnecessary exposure and lead to outcomes on par with the safest developed countries in the world.     

Urbanization and cancer: changing mortality patterns?

"Analysis of the relationship between cancer rates and urbanization for United States counties for the period 1950-54 reveals the expected urban/rural differences for many digestive, urinary and respiratory organ cancers and for female breast cancer. Similar urban/rural differences existed in many other Western countries. By 1970-75, however, urban/rural differences in the United States had substantially narrowed." It is noted that "available data do not allow formal tests of the relationship between these changes and specific etiological factors, but the data suggest that the spatial convergence is related to the changing geography of such risk factors as smoking, alcohol consumption, manufacturing, and socioeconomic status and to the diminished size and role of the white foreign-born population, as well as to such confounding factors as medical practices and population migration."     

美国城市地区划定方法及其演变对我国的启示

科学合理的城乡地域划分能够更真实地反映城乡人口特征和城镇化水平,进而支持城乡和社会经济政策的科学制定。然而,我国的城乡划分和城市地区划定一直以行政地域为界线,难以适应城乡空间发展的复杂特征和真实地反映城乡人口情况,也会影响到社会经济政策的客观性和合理性。美国的城市地区划定经过百余年的发展,不仅在演变过程中不断适应城市在不同发展阶段出现的新特征,而且如今已充分体现"实体地域"的概念,通过精细化的划定方法适应现代城市的复杂特征,对我国而言具有很多可借鉴之处。本文详细介绍了美国的城市地区划定标准、方法和演变历程,并从划定方法的动态演变、核心指标和精细化三方面探讨对我国的启示。     

Spatial-dynamic population systems: analysis and projection

"In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models." Some applications of the model are made to data for China.     

区域视角下城镇人口规模预测例析——以甘肃省临夏市为例

合理预测城市人口规模,是控制城市建设用地规模,保证城市规划对城市发展发挥有效调控作用的关键性前提。在城市规划的编制过程中,对城市人口规模和城市化水平的预测,直接影响着相应时段内城市建设用地规模的规划与决策。当人口规模预测发生偏失时,会直接导致城市规划建设用地规模不准确,造成城市建设用地的紧张或者浪费,也会给城市基础设施...     

Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city

The redistribution of population over larger regions progressively further away from the dense core seems to be the new feature of the (originally compact) Mediterranean cities. With the aim of better understanding the nature of the urban transition taking place in these cities, we studied the phenomenon of population redistribution in Athens Metropolitan Area (AMA) in light of the city’s Urban Life Cycle (ULC). The research was carried out for a time frame of 60 years (1951–2011) using spatial analysis, correlation and multivariate statistics. Results reveal a phase of compact urban expansion occurring in the AMA until 1991, reflected in suburbanisation processes in the immediate proximity of the urban agglomeration. In the following period, the analysis showed signs of a period of transition difficult to interpret within the approach adopted by the ULC theory. A number of municipalities of the urban area experienced positive rates of population growth after decades of decline, while municipalities of the agglomeration and ring remain relatively stable. Altogether, these results can be interpreted as signs of a potential future re-urbanisation. The analysis performed provides insights on the debate over the future of Mediterranean cities, while demonstrating the advantages of adopting a multi-scale assessment methodology for identifying urban transitions.     

人口变动、住房与城市

对法国来说,在评估人口变动对住房问题和城市规划的影响时,家庭性质和结构中的人口老龄化与变化是两项重要考虑因素。这情形同样适用于大多数的欧洲国家。据国家统计局预测,预期寿命的延长已造成中老年人口在人口比例中的上升趋势：到2050年60岁以上的人口数量将翻两倍,75岁以上翻三倍,而85岁以上则翻四倍。这种现象对法国各个区域和城市将产生不同程度的影响,但却有可能强化已经存在的国内移民潮的不稳定性。一般来说,对于住房和城市,有几个问题源自人口老龄化：首先,人口老龄化对家庭的数量和结构有影响,它有助于阐述家庭数量增加规模却减小的事实。其次,大多数老年人,即使高龄甚至残疾或不能自理,仍然选择住在自己家里。欧洲的老年人相关调查表明,他们都不愿意迁入护理机构。这意味着住房必须适应此类人群的特定需求,并且向他们提供服务使其能够留在家里。不仅住房的舒适性是一个问题,住房或建筑物的可达性也应恰当,人们还要考虑安全、公共空间、交通以及购物设施。当然人口老龄化也并非只是个负担,实际上它能够刺激老年人生活地区的经济,促进创造就业机会以满足其特定需求。而且,由于老年人的养老金支出,他们对当地经济的贡献是非常重要的。最后,老年人的私厉拥有比例相当高,从而影响了住房市场甚至整个宏观经济。众多家庭存在着性质和结构的变化。自60年代末以来,研究观察到结婚数量减少,离婚数量、单亲家庭数量和独居者数量均增多。这些变化再一次对住房产生了严重的后果。主要是给住房市场带来7越来越大的压力,如人口老龄化就增加了家庭数量。事实上不仅是数量上的后果。大致来说,时至今日,住房市场∞须满足稳定家庭的典型需求（即已婚夫?     

Determination of bioclimatic comfort in three different land uses in the city of Erzurum,Turkey

This study was carried out to determine the human bioclimatic conditions in rural, urban and urban forest areas in the conditions of the city of Erzurum, where an extreme continental climate type prevails. Data were obtained over a 10-month period and human bioclimatic conditions in these three different land-use types were evaluated using human bioclimatic indices, suitable for the data obtained. In the study, thermohygrometric index (THI), which assesses air temperature and relative humidity, and “beer garden days” index, which uses the days when temperature at 21:00 is over 20 °C, were used. While in these three areas “hot” and “comfort” ranges were determined to be 10% of the period, the number of “beer garden” days was only 20 days in rural, 15 days in urban forest and 18 days in urban areas of Erzurum. Consequently, it has been determined that the most suitable area for the human comfort in the conditions of Erzurum is in the urban area which is followed by the urban forest and the rural areas, both for each observation time and across the whole period.     

State-sponsored and spontaneous urbanization in Fujian province of China, 1982–2010

This paper examines unbalanced urbanization process in Fujian province from 1982 to 2010 from the perspective of dual-track urbanization. The analysis is mainly based on 67 county-level units. The spontaneous track of urbanization is a new process of urbanization in China emerged in the reform period. It plays an important role in linking urban and rural areas but also creates problems of rural-urban integration and social cohesion. This paper examines the relative roles of spontaneous and state-sponsored urbanization and their impacts on the spatial pattern and structure of urbanization in Fujian. It is found that rural to urban migration plays the most significant role while state-sponsored urbanization and rural urbanization play equal roles in the process of urbanization. There was a significant shift of state-sponsored urbanization from county-level cities and counties to urban areas of central cities, Fuzhou and Xiamen, and from inland area to coastal area after 1990. There have also been significant shift and growth of temporary population towards the central cities in the reform period. The shift from small towns to large urban areas is clear in both tracks of urbanization.     

Urban growth effects on rural population, export and service employment: evidence from eastern France

This paper examines how the spatial pattern of urban growth in functional economic regions influences the interplay of rural export employment, rural services employment, and population change in rural areas. Using an extension of the Boarnet’s model (Papers in Regional Science 73:135–153, 1994), we find that urban spread effects to rural areas in France are more likely than urban backwash effects, and that spatial urban (both dynamic and static) externalities affect rural population and employment growth. In the functional economic regions where the urban core is declining and the urban fringe is expanding, urban population growth involves an increase in rural export employment, and larger change in service employment favors rural population growth. However, urban export job growth reduces the growth in rural service jobs and expanding urban service jobs reduce rural export jobs, suggesting that expanding urban employment opportunities draws employees away from proximate rural communities. Conversely, where both urban core and fringe are growing, we observe an urban spread effect from the urban export sector to rural services—an export base multiplier effect with a spatial dimension—and from urban population growth to rural service employment.

The effects of in- and out-migration on urban growth in Turkey (1965–85) and a comparison with the developed countries

Lowry's (1966) study about in- and out-migration rates started a series of discussions on pull and push effects, net migration, and urban growth. This paper presents the results of a similar study, done in Turkey, that tests whether Lowry's hypothesis is valid for developing countries. The results of this study indicate that, for the Turkish case, the effects of migration on urban growth had been contrary to those found in the developed countries, but that, as Turkish development increased over the time period 1965–85, the effects of migration increasingly came to resemble those of developed countries.     

中国控制城乡人口迁移的体制根源

讨论社会主义体制与城乡人口迁移控制的逻辑关系。认为计划经济时期国家对城乡人口迁移的绝对控制是生产资料公有制下产权虚置的一个内生结果。经济体制转轨时期减少了国家的控制能力,但尚未发育出城乡人口自由迁移的环境,反而驱生了城市政府控制城市人口的必要,城乡人口迁移的控制在经济体制转型时期依然存在。     

The relationship between the mass concentrations of sulphate and sulphur dioxide in air polluted with cement dust

The relationship between the mass concentrations of sulphate and SO2 in air was studied over a 1-year period in an area polluted by cement dust. The relationship is described by the equation y = axb, where y is the percentage of sulphate sulphur in total sulphur (sulphate and SO2) and x is the mass concentration of the total sulphur content of the air. According to our previous results, coefficients a and b are characteristic of urban and industrial areas. In the investigated area polluted by cement dust, coefficients a and b characteristic of industrial areas were obtained only during the summer period when cement dust particles predominated. In the winter and over the 1-year period, the influence of other particulate components, which were probably products of fuel combustion, predominated. They were detected because the measuring site was located about 1 km from urban settlements.