When the search for truth fails: A computer simulation of the impact of the publication bias on the meta-analysis of scientific literature

The production of scientific knowledge is a complex social process, where many actors contribute by their publications to the disclosure of the hidden truth. However, due to different methods, analysed samples, and control variables, empirical findings from this process are often contradictory. Thus, quantitative sciences use meta-analyses in order to extract the likely truth from a corpus of publications about a given research question. Unfortunately, this procedure is often impaired by different forms of the so-called publication bias: papers with null-results are sometimes not published due to the publication policy of journal editors and their boards. Similarly, articles with a high news value may have a better chance of being published, even if their findings finally prove to be wrong. Thus the publications used for meta-analyses are often distorted and lead to wrong conclusions about the truth. For this reason the present article develops a formal model of the effects of the publication bias on the results of meta-analyses. It is successfully tested with empirical data and used for studying the conditions, under which meta-analyses disclose, obscure, or revert the underlying truth. As a main result of the related computer simulations it turns out that the publication bias has for true zero-relations other consequences than for true non-zero relations. Moreover, there are situations where certain forms of the publication bias have unexpectedly favourable effects on the disclosure of the truth by meta-analyses.

     

人机工程学在包装设计中的应用

通过对包装设计的特点及人机工程学原理的阐述，探讨了人机工程学在包装设计中的应用的重要性，从而使设计更趋科学，并提高了工作效率。     

Indirect decoding edges for one-shot shape acquisition

Determining the correspondence in coded structured light is challenging, but it is very important in one-shot techniques for 3D shape reconstruction. The problem of decoding stripe patterns can be modeled as matching two code sequences. We propose decoding edges indirectly based on the property of the stripe pattern, which can be represented as edge code, color code, or mixed code sequences. While traditional methods match two edge code sequences, indirect decoding matches two color sequences or mixed code sequences. The advantages of the proposed method, including a higher Hamming distance, enforced local coherence, and more code information, make indirect decoding excellent in performance. Previously, the lack of ground truth has prevented direct comparisons of different decoding algorithms. Here we obtain six benchmark datasets using the robust space-time analysis. Five decoding methods are quantitatively evaluated using the ground truth. The comparison results show that our method is robust for complex code situations and that it outperforms the state-of-the-art technique in this area.     

知识的层次表示和推理的非单调真值维护的研究

研究了专家系统中知识的多重表示情况下推理的非单调真值维护。指出了专家系统中知识的多重表示的必要性，以及知识的多重表示情况下可能出现的推理的不一致性。着重讨论了知识的层次表示和优先级的划分。基于领域知识的优先级，分层ＡＴＭＳ被用来实现推理的非单调真值维护。给出了Ｓｔｒａｔｉｆｉｅｄ ＡＴＭＳ的推理和真值维护的算法。     

Detecting small attractors of large Boolean networks by function‐reduction‐based strategy

Boolean networks (BNs) are widely used to model gene regulatory networks and to design therapeutic intervention strategies to affect the long‐term behaviour of systems. A central aim of Boolean‐network analysis is to find attractors that correspond to various cellular states, such as cell types or the stage of cell differentiation. This problem is NP‐hard and various algorithms have been used to tackle it with considerable success. The idea is that a singleton attractor corresponds to n consistent subsequences in the truth table. To find these subsequences, the authors gradually reduce the entire truth table of Boolean functions by extending a partial gene activity profile (GAP). Not only does this process delete inconsistent subsequences in truth tables, it also directly determines values for some nodes not extended, which means it can abandon the partial GAPs that cannot lead to an attractor as early as possible. The results of simulation show that the proposed algorithm can detect small attractors with length p = 4 in BNs of up to 200 nodes with average indegree K = 2.Inspec keywords: Boolean functions, genetics, cellular biophysicsOther keywords: detecting small attractors, function‐reduction‐based strategy, model gene regulatory networks, therapeutic intervention strategies, Boolean‐network analysis, cellular states, NP‐hard, singleton attractor, Boolean functions, partial gene activity profile, cell differentiation     

Fitting Time Series Models for Prediction

The mathematical theory of the best linear prediction of stationary time series presumes that the model generating the series, which can be specified by either the autocovariance function or the spectral density, is known. The true model is, of course, not known in practice, and the procedure is to fit a model and predict as if this fitted model were the truth. The question then is one of deciding whether the resulting predictions are about as good as could be gotten if the truth were known. This paper describes a method for assessing the predictions of the fitting model by an analysis of residuals. In particular, it is argued that the traditional tests of hypothesis for white noise are inappropriate if prediction is the goal, and a method is described for determining whether or not the mean square errors of the predictions arising from the fitted model can be measurably reduced.     

耗氧量测定方法之探讨

本文着重摸索并分析了水中测定耗氧量的方法和影响测定结果准确性的因素。通过大量的实验发现:加热时间是影响样品测定结果准确度的重要因素。     

Human factors,management and society

Human factors/ergonomics seems to have an image; namely it is often seen in terms of worker protection laws. Further, these laws may be viewed as bearing costs while benefiting only employees. The intent of this paper is to show that this perception does not meet the truth at all. First, it discusses the potential of this applied science and the results that can be gained. The benefits for management and society are then presented.     

材料疲劳试验中可疑观测值的舍取EI

材料疲劳试验中可疑观测值的正确舍取，直接关系到数据处理的质量和处理结果的合理性，本文介绍了可疑观测值舍取的数学方法一肖维奈准则的计算机实现过程，并增加了可疑观测值舍取的人工干预，使可疑观测值的舍取既符合一定的规律，又有一定的灵活性，便于实际应用。     

Design and implementation of the one-step MSD adder of optical computer

On the basis of the symmetric encoding algorithm for the modified signed-digit (MSD), a 7*7 truth table that can be realized with optical methods was developed. And based on the truth table, the optical path structures and circuit implementations of the one-step MSD adder of ternary optical computer (TOC) were designed. Experiments show that the scheme is correct, feasible, and efficient.     

From Analogue to Digital Photography: Bernd and Hilla Becher and Andreas Gursky

Some historians of photography claim that a radical divide exists between analogue and digital photography. At first glance, the analogue photographs of Bernd and Hilla Becher, on the one hand, and digital works of Andreas Gursky, on the other, would seem to confirm this distinction. Closer analysis, however, reveals that the divide between analogue and digital practices is not as strong as it initially appears, and that truth in photography depends on multiple contingent as well as non-contingent factors.     

枪管寿命模拟器和仿真

目的　研制一个系统 ,以便在枪管寿命的研究和预测中 ,显著地减少“画、加、打”循环 .方法　将模拟试验装置、建模与仿真及参数监测系统结合成一个闭环自修正系统 .结果与结论　通过 3～ 5发射击试验 ,真实、全面地再现了枪管在实弹射击条件下所经历的复杂的物理 -化学过程 ,同时 ,它能根据模拟试验的实测数据实时地修改模型 ,提高了枪管寿命仿真的真实性     

Patent retrieval – A question of access

The development of models and systems in Information Retrieval (IR) has been driven by the empirical measurement of effectiveness. However, in recall-oriented domains such as patent search where there is a significant cost of missing a relevant document, standard IR effectiveness measurement only reveals part of the truth. Since credible estimates of recall are not available, it is difficult to evaluate or design systems for this domain. Here, we propose a measure of corpus access, retrievability, and show using four large patent corpora that it can be used both to evaluate models for patent retrieval and also the corpora themselves for the ease with which a document can be retrieved.     

设计学学科属性应该回归设计真相

文章围绕艺术门类新学科目录征求意见稿,指出作为交叉学科的设计学,将原来的设计学一斩三段,分属为理论、实践、交叉三个学科,分离了原本处于一体的设计理论、设计实践和技术交叉问题,障蔽了设计学研究的真相。文章论述了新的交叉学科设计学强行分离理论、实践、技术因素,过于强调工业设计中技术前沿对设计技术的影响和交叉融合,不利于设计学研究的整体认知,也肢解了设计学的学科属性。文章阐述了新的学科目录是对广泛设计门类研究的漠视,必然会出现设计学研究的泛技术化,助长对于设计学外延的过度解读,使得设计学迷失了设计专业的真相。进而,文章提出了设计学学科属性如何回归设计真相的路径思考。     

工程管理方法论

本文按三个层次构建工程管理方法论的框架体系:工程管理哲学方法论、工程管理一般方法论和工程管理具体方法论。将实事求是方法、矛盾分析方法、知行统一方法、真理尺度和价值尺度统一方法和辩证思维方法作为工程管理哲学方法论的主要方法。工程管理一般方法论以系统科学方法、信息科学方法和数学方法为代表。案例研究方法等九种方法则是工程管理具体方法论的主要方法。这种框架不是绝对的,如系统工程方法和项目管理方法都向三个层次延伸。     

Foreign language learning: a deterrent or an incentive forengineering students?

The impression that some academics have about foreign language learning in engineering education is that it is irrelevant at worst, or an unnecessary additional workload for the students at best. The truth may be that engineering students have plenty to gain from the complementary aspects of languages and engineering at initial training level. The environment in which tomorrow's engineers will operate also encourages the introduction of languages as a mandatory subject into engineering courses. The article presents a number arguments showing that the combined national-communicative approach is particularly well-adapted to engineering students in terms of learning time and effort saved, confidence gained and motivation and interest aroused     

Generating automatically labeled data for author name disambiguation: an iterative clustering method

Scientometrics - To train algorithms for supervised author name disambiguation, many studies have relied on hand-labeled truth data that are very laborious to generate. This paper shows that...     

Characterization and simulation of optical sensors

Numerical simulation is gradually becoming an advantage in active safety. This is why the development of realistic numerical models enabling to substitute real truth by simulated truth is primordial. In order to provide an accurate and cost effective solution to simulate real optical sensor behavior, the software Pro-SiVIC™ has been developed. Simulations with the software Pro-SiVIC™ can replace real tests with optical sensors and hence allow substantial cost and time savings during the development of solutions for driver assistance systems. An optical platform has been developed by IFSTTAR (French Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks) to characterize and validate any existing camera, in order to measure their characteristics as distortion, vignetting, focal length, etc. By comparing real and simulated sensors with this platform, this paper demonstrates that Pro-SiVIC™ accurately reproduces real sensors’ behavior.     

Aperture size effects on backscatter intensity measurements in Earth and space remote sensing

Most materials show a peaked intensity versus phase (light-source-target-detector angle) curve. For nonnegligible angular apertures of the source and/or the detector, the measured intensity at and near zero phase (backscatter) is lower than the real one. We derive an averaging aperture integral that represents this effect, and with it we invert measured intensity values to obtain the actual intensity curve. We also give a practical formula for estimating the magnitude of the aperture effect in zero-phase intensity measurements and show that only two such measurements made at different apertures are sufficient for deriving the real intensity. These corrections are needed in the comparison of measured reflectances in an increasing number of validation efforts for remote sensing applications requiring ground truth measurements.     

How to find similar companies using websites?

The selection of industry partners for Research and Development (R&D) is a challenging task for many organizations. Present methods for partner-selection, based on patents, publications or company databases, do often fail for highly specialized SMEs. Our approach aims at calculating the technological similarity for partner discovery. We apply methods from Natural Language Processing (NLP) on companies’ website texts. We show that the deep-learning language model BERT outperforms other methods at this task. Tested against expert-proven ground truth, it achieves an F1-score up to 0.90. Our results imply that website texts are useful for the purpose of estimating the similarity between companies. We see great potential in the scalability of the semantic analysis of company website texts.