两个艾滋病相关的癌症动力学模型研究

考虑到癌症在HIV感染者中的高发特点,本文建立两个艾滋病与癌症相结合的HIV-1动力学模型:一个ODE模型;一个DDE模型.该类系统有四个平衡态.我们讨论了在不同的免疫状况下这些平衡态的存在性、稳定性以及其生物学意义.在DDE模型中,我们讨论了正平衡态Hopf分支的存在条件.文中结果与一些医学临床结果及试验室观察相吻合.     

基于危险网络上的吸毒人群中HIV的传播(英文)

通过建立吸毒人群中交往关系(包括针具共用和性关系)的"危险关系网络",我们研究了一个关于HIV在此人群中传播的随机模型,得到了基本再生数和最终感染者比例。使用四川省西昌市的调查数据,我们研究了针具共用以及性关系的网络规模对模型最终结果的影响。模拟发现,每个注射吸毒者每增加一个"三人小圈子"网络,将最终导致增加10%的感染者。结果提示:减少危险关系网络的规模,尤其是针具共用的网络规模,对控制HIV的传播有重要的作用。     

一类带有治疗的HIV传播模型的定性分析

根据对携带HIV病毒的患者实施治疗的策略及HIV传播的发展情况,建立了一类带有治疗的HIV传播模型.在该模型中,考虑了被治疗后的HIV患者行为改变情况.借助再生矩阵求得了所建模型的基本再生数.当基本再生数小于1时,疾病最终灭绝;当基本再生数大于1时,疾病持续存在.还分析了治疗期对基本再生数的影响.     

HIV相关癌症的动力学模型研究(英文)

本文通过建立两个动力学模型,研究了HIV感染者中癌症的高发现象。我们分别研究了其平衡态的存在性及稳定性。对正平衡态还发现了Hopf分支的存在,并发现随着分支参数的变化,系统出现了周期解与混沌交替出现的现象。     

反应期对我国HIV感染状况的影响模拟

本文讨论了从艾滋病在中国开始传播到政府调动最大力量对艾滋病进行防治之间的反应期θ对艾滋病存中国传播最终结果的影响：1)有效加大政府防治力度,可以降低稳态时感染人数的数量：如防治力度足够大,则最终町以实现HIV在我国灭绝;2)反应期增加不但直接导致我国的感染人数以指数级别增长,并将使最高感染人数增加以及感染峰值时间减小,从而导致最大感染危机以更快速度和更高感染峰值的形式到来。     

基于POT法确定风压系数极值的自动阈值选取与参数估计EI北大核心CSCD

风压系数极值是确定建筑围护结构设计风荷载的重要变量。实现阈值自动选取和合适的模型参数估计方法是保证超阈值模型极值计算结果精确性的先决条件,也是当前超越阈值模型研究的热点和难点。以CAARC高层建筑刚性模型测压风洞试验数据为基础开展超越阈值模型极值计算方法研究,通过对独立峰值数量和相关性研究独立峰值提取方法的性能;采用蒙特卡罗法研究4种不同的广义Pareto分布参数估计方法的性能,给出最佳参数估计方法选择建议;提出基于形状参数或极值估计结果稳定性的变点-局部比较阈值自动选取新方法。研究结果表明,基于变点理论-形状参数/极值稳定性阈值自动选取方法具有较小的样本依赖性,以及有较好的样本非高斯适用性,由此构建的改进超越阈值模型计算风压系数极值与标准极值的偏差小于5%,且完全实现阈值客观、自动选取,研究结论完善了小样本风压系数极值估计方法,对确定建筑围护结构设计风荷载具有重要意义,且可推广到其他极值估计领域。     

考虑弹流润滑及滑动作用下滚动轴承系统局部缺陷位移激励动力学建模

滚动轴承动力学模型可深入的分析轴承局缺陷动态响应特性。针对滚动轴承局部缺陷动力学建模在弹流润滑、滑动和轴承座等方面考虑因素不全的问题,建立弹流润滑及滑动作用下滚动轴承系统局部缺陷位移激励的二自由度动力学模型。首先对滚动体与滚道间的接触刚度、润滑油膜刚度和阻尼、轴承座刚度和阻尼计算并求得总的接触刚度和阻尼,然后再加入滑动更能真实的模拟轴承实际的运转情况;根据牛顿第二定律建立了局部缺陷轴承动力学方程,利用四阶龙格库塔方法求解,得到轴承局部缺陷的动态响应。通过对比故障滚动轴承试验与模型模拟的结果,验证了所建模型的正确性。     

复合泊松需求与库存约束下零售商消费信贷政策研究

针对零售商存在库存约束,消费者到达过程服从泊松分布,且其购买行为依赖于支付能力和感知价值的情形,研究零售商在一个销售季节内不同库存水平下的最优消费信贷政策决策：始终不实施、始终实施或择时实施等3种消费信贷政策。研究表明,当固定成本高于某个阈值或当库存水平低于某个阈值时,应始终不实施消费信贷政策;当库存水平高于某个阈值时,应始终实施消费信贷政策;而当库存水平介于前述两个阈值之间时,应择时实施消费信贷政策(即从销售季节开始后的某刻起实施消费信贷);当零售价格相对较高时,应为消费者提供消费信贷补贴;在其他条件不变情况下,销售季节越短则越应该实施消费信贷政策。最后,通过算例分析验证了命题的准确性和可靠性。     

三维受限刚体的摩擦接触分析

首先建立了摩擦接触约束条件下三维刚体的动力学模型,利用线性互补问题(LCP)理论对其进行了降阶处理,讨论了其解的存在性和唯一性问题,然后利用Kelvin接触模型和奇异摄动理论揭示了受限刚体降阶模型接触力稳定性的附加条件,最后以单接触细长杆为例,分别从滑动接触和滚动接触两种情况讨论了运动的稳定性,验证了理论分析的正确性.     

基于能量法的车辆侧翻稳定性动力学研究

利用能量方法研究车辆的侧翻性能,提出了一种新的车辆侧翻稳定性综合评价方法。建立了复杂非线性十自由度车辆动力学模型,并通过试验验证了模型的正确性。定义了车辆侧翻能量稳定指标:通过计算车辆实时能量储备与车辆侧翻的能量阈值比值得到侧翻能量储备系数,整合车速和转向输入得到车速-转向干扰系数,最终建立一个包含车速、侧倾角速度、侧倾角和轮胎转角等因素的车辆侧翻稳定性综合评价指标。最后在十自由度车辆动力学模型的基础上进行多工况仿真实验,通过与现有评价指标的对比分析,验证了该评价指标的正确性和适用性。     

Robust control of HIV infection by antiretroviral therapy: a super‐twisting sliding mode control approach

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome is an epidemic infectious disease which is caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and that has proliferated across worldwide. It has been a matter of concern for the scientific community to develop an antiretroviral therapy, which will prompt a rapid decline in viral abundance. With this motivation, this study proposes the design of a robust super twisting sliding mode controller based on output information for an uncertain HIV infection model. The control objective is to decrease the concentration of infected CD4+ T cells to a specified level by drug administration using only the output information of the uncertain HIV infection model which is total CD4+ T cell concentration. The robust output‐feedback controller has been developed in combination with a robust exact differentiator, functioning as an observer. The reported analysis demonstrates that the approach proposed here is capable of ensuring robust performance under several operating conditions, measurement and modelling error, parametric uncertainties and external disturbances and the simulation results prove the proficiency of the controller proposed.Inspec keywords: control system synthesis, observers, robust control, drugs, medical control systems, diseases, uncertain systems, variable structure systems, patient treatment, feedback, cellular biophysics, microorganismsOther keywords: robust control, antiretroviral therapy, sliding mode control approach, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, epidemic infectious disease, human immunodeficiency virus, scientific community, robust super, mode controller, output information, uncertain HIV infection model, control objective, infected CD4, total CD4, T cell concentration, robust output‐feedback controller, robust exact differentiator, robust performance     

基于模糊滑模切换控制的PMSMS弱磁调速控制策略

针对表贴式永磁同步电主轴(PMSMS)弱磁控制方案中,主轴系统调速性能欠佳的问题,提出一种基于模糊滑模切换控制(FSMSC)的超前角弱磁调速策略。在转速误差大于设定阈值时,使用模糊控制器实现主轴转速快速趋近给定值,利用模糊控制的特点对控制器进行实时的参数调整,使系统具有更强的鲁棒性;在转速误差小于设定阈值时,使用趋近律滑模控制器提高系统抗干扰能力,减小加工过程中因负载突变造成的加工误差,进一步增强系统鲁棒性。实验结果表明,基于FSMSC的超前角弱磁调速策略能有效抑制定子电流震荡以及电磁转矩脉动,并且控制器对抖动因子参数敏感性低,参数调节便捷,在实际加工中具有重要意义。     

非线性系统的高增益滑模输出跟踪

基于非线性系统线性化后得到外部动态与内模动态，设计一种线性化观测器，使得当摄动参数在有限范围内任意取值时，观测器误差渐近为零。并且利用在有限时间到达平衡点的连续滑动模态，设计一种连续形式的高增益滑模控制器，使得实际输出与参考输出的差渐近收敛到零。稳定性分析和仿真试验表明, 该控制系统具有较强的鲁棒性和快速收敛性。     

Spatial analyses of wildlife contact networks

Datasets from which wildlife contact networks of epidemiological importance can be inferred are becoming increasingly common. A largely unexplored facet of these data is finding evidence of spatial constraints on who has contact with whom, despite theoretical epidemiologists having long realized spatial constraints can play a critical role in infectious disease dynamics. A graph dissimilarity measure is proposed to quantify how close an observed contact network is to being purely spatial whereby its edges are completely determined by the spatial arrangement of its nodes. Statistical techniques are also used to fit a series of mechanistic models for contact rates between individuals to the binary edge data representing presence or absence of observed contact. These are the basis for a second measure that quantifies the extent to which contacts are being mediated by distance. We apply these methods to a set of 128 contact networks of field voles (Microtus agrestis) inferred from mark–recapture data collected over 7 years and from four sites. Large fluctuations in vole abundance allow us to demonstrate that the networks become increasingly similar to spatial proximity graphs as vole density increases. The average number of contacts, , was (i) positively correlated with vole density across the range of observed densities and (ii) for two of the four sites a saturating function of density. The implications for pathogen persistence in wildlife may be that persistence is relatively unaffected by fluctuations in host density because at low density is low but hosts move more freely, and at high density is high but transmission is hampered by local build-up of infected or recovered animals.     

考虑间隙的叶片辊轧机轧辊调整机构滑模控制研究

针对间隙对叶片辊轧机轧辊左右调整机构造成振动冲击的问题,建立了轧辊调整机构的动力学模型,采用微分几何反馈线性化方法对该动力学模型进行线性化解耦处理。在此基础之上,设计了基于干扰观测器的滑模控制器,利用MATLAB/Simulink软件对滑模控制过程进行跟踪仿真,并将滑模控制算法应用于叶片轧制现场,验证了滑模控制的有效性。研究结果表明,采用基于干扰观测器的滑模控制算法可以实现系统轨迹的高精度跟踪。所设计的的滑模控制器可以很好地实现对轧辊调整机构的控制,提高轧辊位置调整精度,从而提高叶片加工精度。     

基于改进ESO的磁悬浮系统模型参考滑模控制

为了提高磁悬浮输送带的稳定性,减小未建模动态和未知外界干扰对磁悬浮系统控制性能的影响,基于改进的扩张状态观测器（extend state observer, ESO）技术,提出了一种模型参考滑模控制与基于改进趋近律的滑模控制相结合的控制策略。首先,对参考模型进行滑模设计,在此基础上根据磁悬浮系统的快速响应和鲁棒性要求,结合幂次趋近律和指数趋近律对传统趋近律进行改进,设计了一种基于新型趋近律的滑模控制;其次,设计了一种新的非线性函数对ESO进行改进,基于改进的ESO对系统的扰动和状态进行观测和估计,将观测结果加入新型滑模控制器以对外界干扰进行补偿,来提高新型滑模控制器的控制性能。仿真结果表明：所设计的控制策略与传统基于指数趋近律的滑模控制相比,磁悬浮系统气隙输出的超调量减小了15.15%,系统具有更高的鲁棒性;与基于改进趋近律的滑模控制方法相比,所提出的控制器可以使系统无抖振,有更好的跟踪性能。在基于改进ESO的模型参考滑模控制下,磁悬浮系统能够稳定运行,具有较好的控制性能。研究结果对磁悬浮输送机输送带的悬浮控制具有一定的参考价值。     

Effect of different modes of viral spread on the dynamics of multiply infected cells in human immunodeficiency virus infection

Infection of individual cells with more than one HIV particle is an important feature of HIV replication, which may contribute to HIV pathogenesis via the occurrence of recombination, viral complementation and other outcomes that influence HIV replication and evolutionary dynamics. A previous mathematical model of co-infection has shown that the number of cells infected with i viruses correlates with the ith power of the singly infected cell population, and this has partly been observed in experiments. This model, however, assumed that virus spread from cell to cell occurs only via free virus particles, and that viruses and cells mix perfectly. Here, we introduce a cellular automaton model that takes into account different modes of virus spread among cells, including cell to cell transmission via the virological synapse, and spatially constrained virus spread. In these scenarios, it is found that the number of multiply infected cells correlates linearly with the number of singly infected cells, meaning that co-infection plays a greater role at lower virus loads. The model further indicates that current experimental systems that are used to study co-infection dynamics fail to reflect the true dynamics of multiply infected cells under these specific assumptions, and that new experimental techniques need to be designed to distinguish between the different assumptions.     

应用于圆饼工件分拣的码垛机器人自适应积分滑模控制

目的 针对存在系统未建模特性和负载变化下码垛机器人关节空间轨迹跟踪控制的问题,设计一种基于结合时延估计技术与自适应积分滑模面的控制策略。方法 根据圆饼工件分拣需求,设计一款桌面式码垛机器人系统,推导机器人的运动学与动力学模型,给出关节空间轨迹规划算法,并基于无模型思想设计关节空间轨迹跟踪控制器。结果 利用雅克比伪逆法可反解出机器人的关节角;通过所提的轨迹规划算法能有效获得各关节运动轨迹;与PID控制器和积分滑模控制器相比,文中所提控制器具有较好的控制精度、较强抗干扰性和较高的鲁棒性。结论 仿真和实验结果表明,所设计的基于时延估计技术的自适应积分滑模控制器是合理的,能使得码垛机器人完成圆饼工件的分拣任务,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Disease control across urban–rural gradients

Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban–rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an ‘urban–rural gradient in epidemic size'' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban–rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas.     

电液伺服系统的微分与积分滑模变结构控制

针对电液系统的非线性特性及其参数不确定性,在电液伺服系统的速度跟踪控制中,提出了一种非线性微分与积分滑模变结构控制(DI-SVSC)策略。在滑模控制中引入积分控制项,消除了传统滑模变结构控制需要被跟踪信号导数已知的假设,利用一非线性微分控制消除了系统的抖振现象。在积分滑模控制与非线性微分控制中,分别给出了切换函数、非线性微分系数及控制器的设计方法。仿真结果显示,该控制方法具有较强的鲁棒性及良好的跟踪性能。