Substitution possibilities and determinants of energy intensity for China

This paper measures technological change, factor demand and inter-factor and inter-fuel substitutability measures for China. We use individual fuel price data and a two-stage approach to estimate total factor cost functions and fuel share equations. Both inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution elasticities are calculated and the change in energy intensity is decomposed into its driving forces. The results suggest that energy is substitutable for capital regionally and for labor nationally. Capital substitutes for energy more easily than labor does. Energy intensity changes vary by region but the major drivers seem to be “budget effect” and the adoption of energy-intensive technologies, which might be embodied in high-level energy-using exports and sectors, capital investment and even old technique and equipment imports. Whether the trend in rising energy intensity continues will be significant for China and the rest of the world.     

Energy substitution in cotton production in the USA

The paper investigates the nature and extent of the substitution of energy for other inputs in the production of cotton in the USA. The specific inputs considered, in addition to energy, are labour, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, pesticides and water. The results show that input use is responsive to variations in own prices and that some limited substitution does occur between energy, labour and nitrogen fertilizer.     

U.S. manufacturing aggregate energy intensity decomposition: The application of multivariate regression analysis

This paper introduces the use of a multivariate regression analysis to explain factors that impact aggregate energy intensity. This kind of study is useful to evaluate the past and predicts the future trends for energy‐policy evaluation. Historical aggregate fuel and electricity intensities of the entire U.S. manufacturing sector (Standard Industrial Classification, SIC, codes of 20–39) over the 1977–1998 period are used to develop the proposed multivariate regression model. The proposed model allows identifying the structural effect of aggregate energy intensity changes without relying on detailed disaggregated energy data. Its results are validated by comparison with those from conventional decomposition techniques based on economic index numbers. For illustration, the historical aggregate fuel intensity of the U.S. primary metal industry (SIC 33) is used as an example of a situation for which economic index numbers fail to decompose the historical aggregate energy intensity since the disaggregated energy data are unavailable, while the multivariate regression analysis can still be applied. Empirical results show that a structural shift contributes to decreases of about 28, 41 and 19% of total declines of U.S. manufacturing aggregate fuel, U.S. manufacturing aggregate electricity, and U.S. primary metal industry aggregate fuel intensities, respectively, for the 1977–1998 period. The method based on multivariate regression models estimates the time series structural effects within deviation averages of 8.5 and 7.0% of the time series structural effect estimates based on the economic index numbers for the U.S. manufacturing aggregate fuel and electricity intensities, respectively, even though the multivariate regression model does not require disaggregated energy data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上海市产业结构变化对能源强度的影响

能源短缺已成为社会经济发展的巨大瓶颈。在阐述能源强度及其影响因素的基础上,对上海能源强度变化的特征及三次产业结构变化对能源消费强度的影响作出进一步分析,认为上海市产业结构变化与能源利用效率的提高是促使能源强度下降的两大主要因素,但后者的影响更大,尤其是第二产业能源强度下降是导致综合能源强度下降的主要动力;但第三产业的发展又在不断提高能源强度。针对上述情况,提出了应对措施。     

Regional drivers of on-farm energy production in Bavaria

Bavaria's energy policy seeks to increase the share of power supply from renewable sources related to on-farm energy production (agricultural biogas, wind- and solar energy) from currently 15% to more than 30% in 2021. It is therefore of particular interest for policy-makers to identify regional drivers of and barriers to this concept.The presented study addresses this issue and applies a spatial regression analysis to Bavaria’s 71 rural counties. The findings indicate significant impacts of technological regional transformation ability, agricultural structure (degree of professionalization and consolidation of organic farming) and neighborhood effects. This is in contrast to most geographical factors, which seem to be of minor relevance.     

Modeling and forecasting the U.S. manufacturing aggregate energy intensity

Two forecasting models are developed for forecasting the U.S. manufacturing aggregate fuel and electricity intensities. The models are both simple to apply and capable of identifying the effect of underlying forces of aggregate energy intensity change. The validation of the results provided by these models is performed by comparing these results with those rendered by conventional decomposition techniques based on economic index numbers. The results indicate that the aggregate fuel intensity is expected to decline by 3.2%yr^?1 from the year 2000 to 2010, of which 1.1%yr^?1 is due to structural effect, i.e. a share of 32.9% of aggregate fuel intensity change. The results also show that in the same period the aggregate electricity intensity is expected to decline at a rate of 1.2%yr^?1, of which 0.6%yr^?1 is due to structural effect, i.e. a share of 46.3% of aggregate electricity intensity change. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the impact of reduced averaging time on small wind turbine power curves,energy capture predictions and turbulence intensity measurements

The effect of varying the averaging time of measured data used to calculate wind turbine power curves is examined. The effects of reducing the averaging time from 10 to 1 min, as recommended for small wind turbines, are investigated using power performance data recorded using a 15 kW wind turbine. Test site data have been processed according to the relevant international standard, IEC 61400‐12‐1, to provide power curves and annual energy yield predictions. A number of issues are explored: the systematic distortion of the power curve that occurs as averaging time is decreased, the errors introduced by the use of 1 min averaged power curves to calculate energy yield and the reduction of turbulence intensity as averaging time is reduced. Recommendations for improved small wind turbine testing and energy yield calculation are given. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of solar energy cost on water production cost of seawater desalination plants in Egypt

Many countries in North Africa and the Middle East are experiencing localized water shortages and are now using desalination technologies with either reverse osmosis (RO) or thermal desalination to overcome part of this shortage. Desalination is performed using electricity, mostly generated from fossil fuels with associated greenhouse gas emissions. Increased fuel prices and concern over climate change are causing a push to shift to alternative sources of energy, such as solar energy, since solar radiation is abundant in this region all year round.     

Firm-level determinants of energy and carbon intensity in China

In recent years, China׳s leaders have sought to coordinate official energy intensity reduction targets with new targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) intensity reduction. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) included for the first time a binding target for energy intensity, while a binding target for CO₂ intensity was included later in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). Using panel data for a sample of industrial firms in China covering 2005 to 2009, we investigate the drivers of energy intensity reduction (measured in terms of direct primary energy use and electricity use) and associated CO₂ intensity reduction. Rising electricity prices were associated with decreases in electricity intensity and increases in primary energy intensity, consistent with a substitution effect. Overall, we find that energy intensity reduction by industrial firms during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan translated into more than proportional CO₂ intensity reduction because reducing coal use—in direct industrial use as well as in the power sector—was a dominant abatement strategy. If similar dynamics characterize the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), the national 17 percent CO₂ intensity reduction target may not be difficult to meet—and the 16 percent energy intensity reduction target may result in significantly greater CO₂ intensity reduction.     

The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered.     

Effect of material flows on energy intensity in process industries

Many energy-intensive process industries have complex material flows, which have a strong effect on the overall energy intensity of the final product (OEIF). This problem, however, has only been recognised qualitatively due to the lack of quantitative analysis methods. This paper presents an in-depth quantitative analysis of the effect of material flows on energy intensity in process industries. Based on the concept of a standard material flow diagram (SMFD), as used in steel manufacturing, the SMFD for a generic process industry was first developed. Then material flow scenarios were addressed in a practical material flow diagram (PMFD) using the characteristics of practical process industries. The effect of each material flow deviating from a SMFD on the OEIF was analysed. The steps involved in analysing the effect of material flows in a PMFD on its energy intensity are also discussed in detail. Finally, using 1999 statistical data from the Chinese Zhenzhou alumina refinery plant, the PMFD and SMFD for this plant were constructed as a case study. The effect of material flows on the overall energy intensity of alumina (OEIA) was thus analysed quantitatively. To decrease OEIA, the process variations which decrease the product ratios could be employed in all except in multi-supplied fraction cases. In these cases, the fractions from the stream with lower energy intensities should be increased.     

The effect of increasing exports on industrial energy intensity in China

Given China's heavy reliance on fuel energy and the dominance of its industrial sector in the economy, improving energy efficiency remains one of the practical means for the country to decrease energy intensity and to fulfill its commitment made at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference to achieve a 40–45 percent reduction in CO₂ emission intensity by 2020. This study investigates the impact of exports on industrial energy intensity to explore the possibility of reducing energy intensity through greater exports. A panel varying-coefficient regression model with a dataset of China's 20 industrial sub-sectors over 1999–2007 suggests that in general, greater exports aggravate energy intensity of the industrial sector and that great divergences exist in the impact of exports on energy intensity across sub-sectors. A panel threshold model further estimates the thresholds for the major determinants of energy intensity: exports, input in technological innovations, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) intensity. Given the great differences in specific sub-sector characteristics and the changing roles played by different factors across sub-sectors, there is no general export policy that would work for all sub-sectors in reducing sub-sector energy intensity. Instead, policies and measures aiming to encourage more efficient use of energy should take into full consideration the characteristics and situations of individual sub-sectors.     

Impact of energy efficiency upgrade retrofits on the residential energy consumption in Canada

The impact of various energy efficiency upgrade scenarios on the annual energy consumption of the Canadian housing stock is assessed using the Canadian Residential Energy End‐use Model (CREEM). The energy efficiency upgrade scenarios that are considered include major retrofits, such as the improvement of the house envelope by adding insulation, and the replacement of the existing heating system and appliances by higher efficiency units, as well as minor retrofits, such as lighting fixture, thermostat, showerhead and aerator upgrades that reduce energy consumption. The economic feasibility of each upgrade was assessed using the indicator ‘energy savings per dollar investment’. The results indicate that the energy savings potential of the retrofits is rather small, resulting in savings of 0–8 per cent of the total energy consumption of the Canadian housing stock. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of climate change on biomass production and substitution in north-central Sweden

In this study we estimate the effects of climate change on forest production in north-central Sweden, as well as the potential climate change mitigation feedback effects of the resulting increased carbon stock and forest product use. Our results show that an average regional temperature rise of 4 °C over the next 100 years may increase annual forest production by 33% and potential annual harvest by 32%, compared to a reference case without climate change. This increased biomass production, if used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials, can result in a significant net carbon emission reduction. We find that carbon stock in forest biomass, forest soils, and wood products also increase, but this effect is less significant than biomass substitution. A total net reduction in carbon emissions of up to 104 Tg of carbon can occur over 100 years, depending on harvest level and reference fossil fuel.     

Provincial energy intensity in China: The role of urbanization

Chinese policymakers have attached great importance to energy intensity reduction. However, the unprecedented urbanization process exercises additional pressure on the realization of energy intensity reduction targets. A better understanding of the impacts of urbanization is necessary for designing effective policies aimed at reaching the next energy intensity reduction targets. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of urbanization on China's aggregate and disaggregated energy intensities using a balanced panel dataset of 30 provinces covering the period from 2000 to 2012 and panel estimation techniques. The results show that urbanization significantly increases aggregate energy intensity, electricity intensity and coal intensity.     

A cross-country analysis of aggregate energy and carbon intensities

An update on the study by Ang [Energy Economics 9 (1987) 274–286] shows substantial changes in the relationship between energy consumption and national output across world countries from 1975 to 1997. While the ratio of commercial energy consumption to national output increases across countries as per capita income increases in 1975, the converse is observed in 1997. The cross-country energy elasticity has also dropped from values well above unity to below or close to unity. Using the 1997 data, the relationship between CO₂ emissions and national output across countries is studied and the results show some interesting differences from that between energy consumption and national output.     

建筑管理与能源匹配中的建筑节能

基于调研成果 ,分析了目前上海市公共建筑的管理模式与建筑能源的匹配情况 ,探讨了建筑管理与建筑能源匹配对公共建筑节能的影响     

Effect of fuelwood scarcity and socio-economic factors on household bio-based energy use and energy substitution in rural Ethiopia

In Ethiopia biomass is predominantly utilized for household energy needs often using inefficient rudimentary stoves which cause adverse environmental and welfare effects. This paper examined the contribution of biomass resources to rural household energy use and energy substitution. The analysis applied the ordinary least square in the final stage estimation of fuelwood and overall biomass energy consumption by using predicted shadow prices. The paper used Tobit model to estimate charcoal and agricultural fuel consumption due to the presence of censoring. An increase in fuelwood shadow price was associated with reduced household fuelwood consumption with price elasticity of −0.38. The cross price elasticity between fuelwood and agricultural fuels revealed no evidence of energy substitution, which conforms to the findings of previous studies. Household access to electricity was associated with lower household biomass energy utilization but kerosene was not fuelwood substitute. Household energy use conformed to the ‘fuel stacking’ or ‘multiple fuel use’ concept, but households preferred modern energy options as welfare increased in areas where modern energy is available. This suggests that there is a promising prospect for fuel-transition, but access to modern energy and economic growth have key roles. The findings suggest that a concerted policy effort is required that would help diversify rural livelihoods, improve living standards and encourage economic growth, encourage inter-fuel substitution through improved modern energy access and afforestation to increase biomass supply.     

Impact of single versus multiple policy options on the economic feasibility of biogas energy production: Swine and dairy operations in Nova Scotia

The economic feasibility of on-farm biogas energy production was investigated for swine and dairy operations under Nova Scotia, Canada farming conditions, using net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period (PP) economic decision criteria. In addition, the effects of selected environmental and “green” energy policy schemes on co-generation of on-farm biogas energy production and other co-benefits from anaerobic digestion of livestock manure were investigated. Cost-efficiencies arising from economies of scale for on-farm anaerobic biogas production were found for swine farms, and less so for dairy production systems. Without incentive schemes, on-farm biogas energy production was not economically feasible across the farm size ranges studied, except for 600- and 800-sow operations. Among single policy schemes investigated, green energy credit policy schemes generated the highest financial returns, compared to cost-share and low-interest loan schemes. Combinations of multiple policies that included cost-share and green energy credit incentive schemes generated the most improvement in financial feasibility of on-farm biogas energy production, for both swine and dairy operations.     

The role of energy intensity improvement in the AR4 GHG stabilization scenarios

This study analyzes the role of energy intensity improvement in the short term (to the year 2020) and midterm (to the year 2050) in the context of long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) stabilization scenarios. The data come from the latest Emissions Scenarios Database and were reviewed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, quantitative decomposition analyses using the extended Kaya identity are applied to the stabilization scenarios in Categories I to IV of Table SPM.5 in the AR4. Furthermore, quantitative decomposition analyses of Category IV scenarios are conducted for major GHG-emitting countries, such as the USA, Western Europe, China, and India, by utilizing the large number of reports in the database. This study provides in-depth analyses of the relationship between energy intensity improvement and other major indicators. One finding is that energy intensity improvement plays an important role in the short term, and the rate of energy intensity improvement is assumed to be around 2% per year as a median value across Categories I–III in the midterm on the global scale. However, achieving stringent stabilization levels requires various other measures regarding the use of less-carbon intensive fossil fuels, the shift to non-fossil fuel energies, and advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage.