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寡头垄断电力市场实验设计与博弈分析 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
将实验经济学的方法成功应用于寡头垄断电力市场研究,介绍了价值诱导原理、电力市场寡头垄断实验设计方案和实验过程,针对一个由3个厂商组成的寡头垄断实验市场进行了多次实验并对实验结果进行了严格的统计分析。实验结果表明,在寡头竞争市场环境、不对称成本函数和重复博弈条件下,市场竞争逐渐收敛到完全竞争均衡和纳什均衡之间的结果。被试者是否具有辅助决策工具对实验结果有显著影响,在具有辅助决策工具时,有限理性的被试者在重复博弈中能达到理论上的静态纳什均衡。所得结论为电力市场的仿真实验研究提供了方法论上的参考,也为寡头垄断电力市场的参与者行为和市场均衡分析提供了实验依据。 相似文献
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美国PJM电力市场及其对我国电力市场化改革的启示 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
美国PJM控制区(位于美国东北部的一个区域电力系统)的电力市场运作是北美建立竞争区域电力市场的典范,其成功经验值得中国借鉴。文中总结了美国PJM电力市场的发展过程、市场组织结构和市场交易机制,分析了其成功的几大因素,并针对中国特点提出:为了保征电力系统的安全运行和电力市场的有效运作,中国的电力市场交易应该以合同交易为主,随着市场需求发展多种交易类型,通过制定有效的市场规则减少市场操纵力,同时应建立明确的供电责任机制。 相似文献
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针对电力工业垄断所带来的弊端,世界各国陆续开展了电力市场化改革。介绍了我国电力市场的发展历史、改革原因、市场结构以及现货市场提出背景,分析了北欧地区以及美国PJM电力市场的发展情况,结合我国目前的电力市场改革的推进现状,提出了现阶段电力现货市场建设的若干方向。 相似文献
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单边开放电力市场的稳定性分析及对策 总被引:13,自引:4,他引:13
运用博弈论对单边开放电力市场中寡头厂商的动作行为进行了分析,结果表明:过分依赖现货市场的自由竞争将导致市场不稳定。要维持电力市场稳定运行,必须在现货市场的基础上进一步完善其他的市场运行机制,其中,建立发电安装容量市场、远期合约市场和期货市场是两种有效的手段。发电安装容量市场的存在可以保证电力市场处于一种有效竞争状态,而远期合约市场和期货市场的建立既可以正确引导长期发电投资的增长,也可以削弱寡头厂商在现货市场中的市场力量。 相似文献
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从国家和区域电力市场两个层面,深入研究了美国电力市场信息披露体系。在国家层面,详细梳理了美国能源信息署对电力基本概况、电力生产与消费、电力市场运行、环境信息等的披露,并分析了其披露这些信息的制度考量。在区域电力市场层面,以PJM电力市场为例,详细梳理了其在能量市场、辅助服务等市场中披露的系统运行、市场价格、电力供需、成员报价、市场结构等信息,并分析了其披露这些信息的作用。在此基础上,结合中国国情,提出了以引导资源跨区域流动为核心的国家层面信息披露,以及以自证市场公信力、提高省内市场效率为核心的省级层面信息披露的政策建议。 相似文献
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系统边际电价概率分布检验及模型研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对系统边际电价的概率分布研究是电力市场定量分析研究工作的基础。该文通过概率坐标图、峰度和偏度分析,对系统边际电价的分布特性进行定性和定量分析,并通过J-B检验严格验证系统边际电价分布的非正态性。根据概率坐标图发现的电价具有分段正态分布的特点,提出用加权双高斯分布模型来刻画系统边际电价概率密度分布,美国PJM (Pennsylvania-new Jersey-Maryland)和澳大利亚NSW (New South Wales)电力市场的实际数据表明,该模型比传统的高斯分布和超高斯分布更接近实际的电价分布。 相似文献
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《The Electricity Journal》2022,35(3):107093
We analyze the characteristics of the Northeast US’s PJM wholesale electricity market production cost and supply curve during the most extreme winter weather event in modern meteorological history within the PJM territory. It is seemingly ironic that the cause of such extremely cold weather events is global warming. The experience from this event demonstrates that the annual-summer-peak-centric nature of the PJM capacity planning process does not address the adequacy of supply during the winter. The PJM production cost curve is estimated and compared across recent winter season peak months to understand how large the price responsiveness to load changes can be during extreme winter weather events and how winter weather events can reduce system reliability for a summer-capacity-planning-centric power market. Therefore, PJM and other power pools (such as ERCOT in Texas) have not considered secondary peak seasons in capacity planning. 相似文献
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A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM. 相似文献
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基于PSO训练BP神经网络的短期电价预测 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
以美国PJM电力市场为背景,利用历史负荷、系统剩余容量百分比和清算电价对未来时段电价的影响来进行短期电价预测,给出了一个发电侧竞价模型中利用PSO训练BP神经网络进行市场出清电价预测的实例。与使用传统BP神经网络预测的方法进行比较,结果表明,该方法具有更高的预测精度,并能收敛于全局最优解。 相似文献
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Tomonobu Senjyu Hirofumi Toyama Phatchakorn Areekul Shantanu Chakraborty Atsushi Yona Naomitsu Urasaki Toshihisa Funabashi 《IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering》2009,4(5):618-624
Electricity price forecasting is an essential task for market participants in deregulated electricity market. This paper proposes an approach for next-day peak electricity price forecasting, since it is important for risk management and bidding strategy. In the proposed method, neural network (NN) is employed as the forecasting method, and its learning data is selected by using rough sets. Moreover, the creating method of learning data based on temperature fluctuation is also proposed for generation of new learning data in order to efficiently learn. This method is examined by using the data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and The independent electricity system operator (IESO) market. From the simulation results, it is observed that the proposed method is useful for next-day peak electricity price forecasting. Copyright © 2009 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 相似文献
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PJM日前市场电价的统计分析 总被引:10,自引:3,他引:7
对市场电价的统计分析有助于掌握电价的分布规律,并为发电厂投资、市场风险评估等研究提供依据。文中基于美国PJM(Pennsylvania—New Jersey—Mary land)日前市场的实际数据,采用K-S(Kolmogorov—Smirnove)检验法对电价的统计性质进行了验证,得出如下结论:首先,PJM日前市场的年电价服从对数正态分布;其次,以负荷高低水平将电价进行分类,在中高等负荷时段,电价服从对数正态分布,而低负荷时段电价服从正态分布;最后,在不同负荷的情形下,负荷与其对应电价的均值、标准差之间存在着一种近似的线性关系。 相似文献
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In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. 相似文献