Including bottom-up emission abatement technologies in a large-scale global economic model for policy assessments

Economic models with global and economy-wide coverage can be useful tools to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies, but often disregard finer technological details of emission abatement measures. We present a framework for integrating and preserving detailed bottom-up information for end-of-pipe abatement technologies into a large-scale numerical model. Using an activity analysis approach, we capture non-linearities that typically characterise bottom-up abatement cost curves derived from discrete technology options. The model framework is flexible and can accommodate greenhouse gas and air pollution abatement, as well as modelling carbon capture and storage (CCS). Here, we illustrate this approach for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in a large-scale Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and compare results with a fitted marginal abatement curve and with completely excluding non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. Results show that excluding non-CO₂ abatement options leads to an overestimation of the total abatement cost. When the detailed bottom-up technology implementation is replaced by a fitted smooth marginal abatement cost curve, significant over- or underestimations of abatement levels and costs can emerge for particular pollutant-sector-region combinations.     

Energy intensities and greenhouse gas emission mitigation in global agriculture

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions are closely linked. This paper reviews agricultural options to reduce energy intensities and their impacts, discusses important accounting issues related to system boundaries, land scarcity, and measurement units and compares agricultural energy intensities and improvement potentials on an international level. Agricultural development in recent decades, while increasing yields, has led to lower average energy efficiencies when comparing the 1960s and the mid 1980s. In the two decades thereafter, energy intensities in developed countries increased, but with little impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Efficiency differences across countries in the year 2000 suggest a maximum improvement potential of 500 million tons of CO₂ annually. If only below average countries would increase their energy efficiency to average levels of the year 2000, the resulting emission reductions would be below 200 million tons of CO₂ annually.

Modeling of current and future energyintensity and greenhouse gas emissions ofthe Lebanese industrial sector: assessmentof mitigation options

Greenhouse gas emissions in Lebanon mainly come from energy activities, which are responsible for 85% of all CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction represent 24% of the total emissions of the energy sector. Lebanese manufacturers' accounted for 39.15 million gigajoules of fuel consumption for heat and power generation in 1994, including both fuel used directly and fuel burned remotely to generate electricity used in the sector. In addition to being processed by combustion, CO₂ is generated in calcining of carbonates in the manufacture of cement, iron and glass. Electricity, the most expensive form of energy, represented 25.87% of all fuel used for heat and power. Residual fuel oil and diesel, which are used mainly in direct combustion processes, represent 26.85 and 26.55% of all energy use by industry, respectively. Scenarios for future energy use and CO₂ emissions are developed for the industrial sector in Lebanon. The development of the baseline scenario relied on available data on major plants' outputs, and on reported amounts of fuels used by the industrial sector as a whole. Energy use in industry and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Lebanon are projected in baseline scenarios that reflect technologies, activities and practices that are likely to evolve from the base year 1994 to year 2040. Mitigation work targets a 15% of CO₂ emissions from the baseline scenario by year 2005 and a 20–30% reduction of CO₂ emissions by year 2040. The mitigation options selected for analysis are screened on the basis of GHG emissions and expert judgement on the viability of their wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. Using macroeconomic assessment and energy price assumptions, the final estimates of potential GHG emissions and reduction costs of various mitigation scenarios are calculated. The results show that the use of efficient electric motors, efficient boilers and furnaces with fuel switching from fuel oil to natural gas has the largest impact on GHG emissions at a levelized annual cost that ranges from −20 to −5 US$/tonne of CO₂ reduced. The negative costs are indicative of direct savings obtained in energy cost for those mitigation options.     

Industrial energy efficiency and climate change mitigation

Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO₂ in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy-efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Cost and performance of fossil fuel power plants with CO2 capture and storage

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is receiving considerable attention as a potential greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation option for fossil fuel power plants. Cost and performance estimates for CCS are critical factors in energy and policy analysis. CCS cost studies necessarily employ a host of technical and economic assumptions that can dramatically affect results. Thus, particular studies often are of limited value to analysts, researchers, and industry personnel seeking results for alternative cases. In this paper, we use a generalized modeling tool to estimate and compare the emissions, efficiency, resource requirements and current costs of fossil fuel power plants with CCS on a systematic basis. This plant-level analysis explores a broader range of key assumptions than found in recent studies we reviewed for three major plant types: pulverized coal (PC) plants, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems using coal. In particular, we examine the effects of recent increases in capital costs and natural gas prices, as well as effects of differential plant utilization rates, IGCC financing and operating assumptions, variations in plant size, and differences in fuel quality, including bituminous, sub-bituminous and lignite coals. Our results show higher power plant and CCS costs than prior studies as a consequence of recent escalations in capital and operating costs. The broader range of cases also reveals differences not previously reported in the relative costs of PC, NGCC and IGCC plants with and without CCS. While CCS can significantly reduce power plant emissions of CO₂ (typically by 85–90%), the impacts of CCS energy requirements on plant-level resource requirements and multi-media environmental emissions also are found to be significant, with increases of approximately 15–30% for current CCS systems. To characterize such impacts, an alternative definition of the “energy penalty” is proposed in lieu of the prevailing use of this term.     

Estimating the potential CO2 mitigation from agricultural energy efficiency in the United States

Energy efficiency in agriculture is an underanalyzed aspect of a potential climate change mitigation strategy. According to the Fourth Assessment Report, experts report only medium agreement and medium evidence that energy efficiency can provide substantial reductions (Smith et al. 2007). This paper estimates the CO₂ mitigation potential achievable through improvements in energy efficiency in the US agriculture sector. The data are presented in three formats: the cost data or break-even points of each technology, a marginal abatement supply curve expressed in terms of reduction in energy use by fuel category, and a marginal abatement supply curve expressed in terms of CO₂ emission reductions by fuel category. The largest sources of energy use in the sector were identified as motors used in irrigation systems or other pumping operations; farm machinery such as tractors used in daily farm operations; and space conditioning, such as HVAC systems for livestock and crop-drying systems.

Development forecast of renewable energy power generation in China and its influence on the GHG control strategy of the country

CO₂ emissions of the electricity supply sector in China account for about half of the total volume in the country. Thus, reducing CO₂ emissions in China’s electricity supply sector will contribute significantly to the efforts of greenhouse gas (GHG) control in the country and the rest of the world. This paper introduces the development status of renewable energy and other main CO₂ mitigation options in power generation in China and makes a preliminary prediction of the development of renewable energy in the country for future decades. Besides, based on the situation in China, the paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of CO₂ mitigation costs, mitigation potential, and fossil energy conversation capacity of renewable energy and other mitigation options, through which the influence of renewable energy on the mitigation strategy of China is analyzed.     

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO₂ emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO₂ emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO₂ at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO₂ concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO₂ emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Preparing for global rollout: A ‘developed country first’ demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use in many developed and developing countries are expected to be the major source of anthropogenic emissions for the foreseeable future. As a result, the potential to use CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) for significant reductions in CO₂ emissions from the use of coal (and other fossil fuels) at large point sources could become very important in determining the feasibility of climate change mitigation. Large-scale deployment of CCS in the EU from 2020 has been suggested, but this paper illustrates how time is very short if two complete learning cycles are to be achieved before a possible rollout in the early/mid 2020s. It also highlights some key differences between CO₂ capture technologies that suggest that learning can be achieved more quickly with post-combustion capture than with other options. This might allow rollout to be accelerated by perhaps 5 years for post-combustion capture.     

Overview of energy consumption and GHG mitigation technologies in the building sector of Japan

This paper outlines the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trends in the residential and commercial sectors in Japan. The results showed that the increase in residential energy consumption in Japan is mainly caused by the widespread use of heating equipment, hot water supply apparatus, and other household electrical appliances. On the other hand, it was indicated that the increase in commercial energy use is mainly due to the increase of the floor area of buildings, particularly hotels, hospitals, and department stores. The paper also describes political measures to promote energy conservation, including the building energy conservation standard, Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency, top runner programs, financial incentives, and the dissemination of the Cool Biz concept. Finally, the projections of CO₂ emissions until 2050 are presented.

The European power plant infrastructure—Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications

This paper presents a newly established database of the European power plant infrastructure (power plants, fuel infrastructure, fuel resources and CO₂ storage options) for the EU25 member states (MS) and applies the database in a general discussion of the European power plant and natural gas infrastructure as well as in a simple simulation analysis of British and German power generation up to the year 2050 with respect to phase-out of existing generation capacity, fuel mix and fuel dependency. The results are discussed with respect to age structure of the current production plants, CO₂ emissions, natural gas dependency and CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) under stringent CO₂ emission constraints.     

Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

Low greenhouse gas biomass options for cooking in the developing countries

Large quantities of biomass fuels are used for cooking in the developing countries. Although biomass is a renewable source of energy, traditional biomass-fired stoves cause significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to formation of products of incomplete combustion; also, exposure to smoke from these stoves causes serious health problems. This paper presents an analysis of a number of selected options available for developing countries in the context of reducing total greenhouse gas emission per unit of useful energy for cooking. It is assumed that biomass as an energy carrier is CO₂—neutral. However, other GHGs emitted from biomass combustion cause a net greenhouse effect; accordingly, in this study only the non-CO₂ greenhouse gases i.e. CH₄ and N₂O are considered in estimating GHG emission for different biomass-based cooking options. The total GHG emission from traditional wood-fired stoves is estimated to be about $\text{110}\text{g}$ of CO₂ equivalent per mega joule of useful energy (g CO₂-e MJ_useful⁻¹) delivered to the cooking pot; this can be compared with 42, 5, 2, 350, 166 and $\text{196}\text{g}\text{CO}{}_2$-e MJ_useful⁻¹ in case of improved wood-, biogas-, producer gas-, kerosene-, natural gas- and LPG-fired stoves, respectively. Modern biomass based cooking options such as improved biomass-, biogas- and producer gas-fired stoves can potentially play an important role in mitigating GHG emission from domestic cooking by providing an alternative to kerosene-, natural gas- and LPG-fired stoves.     

Global and regional potential for bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage

Among technological options to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biomass energy with carbon capture and storage technology (BECCS) is gaining increasing attention. This alternative offers a unique opportunity for a net removal of atmospheric CO₂ while fulfilling energy needs. Empirical studies using bottom-up energy models show that BECCS has an important role to play in the future energy mix. Most of these studies focus on global BECCS potential, whereas it is of interest to understand where this mitigation option will be deployed. This key issue will strongly depend on regions’ biomass resources and possession of storage sites. The aim of this study is to assess the global and regional potential of BECCS up to 2050 in power generation. This analysis is conducted using the multiregional TIAM-FR optimization model. The climate policy scenarios investigated lead to a considerable expansion of renewable energy and CCS and BECCS technologies in the power sector. CCS from fossil fuel is mainly deployed in fast developing countries (India and China) and BECCS is highly distributed in developing countries, even though biomass resources are widely available in all regions.     

A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia

The emissions from road transport are serious threats to urban air quality and global warming. The first step to develop effective policies is to determine the source and amount of emissions produced. This paper attempts to review emissions from road transport using COPERT 4 model and examined possible emission mitigation strategies. In road transport, results have show that passenger cars are the main cause of CO₂, N₂O and CO emissions, while motorcycles are main source of hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. However, light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles are the main contribution of particulate matters. The total CO₂ equivalent emissions for road transport in Malaysia are 59,383.51 ktonnes for year 2007. Further results show that CO₂ emission is the primary source of greenhouse gas pollution which is 71% of the total CO₂ equivalent. A parametric study was conducted to estimate the potential emission mitigation strategies for road transport by taking the emissions in 2007 as a reference year. It was observed that promoting the public transport is an effective strategy to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from the technical view point. It can totally save up to 1044 ktonnes of fuel consumption and total CO₂ equivalents emissions can be decreased by 7%. It was noted that, fleet renewal and promoting natural gas vehicles will significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions in Malaysia.     

Comparative analysis of energy requirements of CO2 removal from metallurgical fuel gases

The paper presents preliminary results of the analysis concerning a CO₂ removal process, applied to metallurgical fuel gases: blast-furnace gas and Corex gas. The CO₂ removal is realised by the physical absorption process with the Selexol solvent as the absorbing liquid. The analysis is focused on the energy consumption in the case of such installations, when blast-furnace gas or Corex gas are supposed to be treated. The CO₂ removal from metallurgical gases can be attractive from both technological and environmental points of view. Decreased CO₂ content in the gases and increased lower heating value (LHV) results in better conditions for its utilisation e.g. in a gas turbine-based combined heat and power (CHP) plant or direct utilisation within the process, e.g. as an auxiliary fuel or reducing gas in a blast furnace. As the composition, flow rate and LHV of the raw blast furnace and Corex gases differ strongly, the physical absorption installation has different requirements and operation parameters in the two cases. The optimisation leads to minimal energy consumption with the assumed CO₂ removal efficiency. The results indicate which technology of pig-iron production has greater potential in the field of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, with respect to the technological possibilities of utilisation of the treated fuel gases.     

An evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation options for coal-fired power plants in the US Great Lakes States

We assessed options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in the US Great Lakes States, a region heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants. A proposed 600 MW power plant in northern Lower Michigan, USA provided context for our evaluation. Options to offset fossil CO₂ emissions by 20% included biomass fuel substitution from (1) forest residuals, (2) short-rotation woody crops, or (3) switchgrass; (4) biologic sequestration in forest plantations; and (5) geologic sequestration using CO₂ capture. Review of timber product output data, land cover data, and expected energy crop productivity on idle agriculture land within 120 km of the plant revealed that biomass from forestry residuals has the potential to offset 6% and from energy crops 27% of the annual fossil fuel requirement. Furthermore, annual forest harvest in the region is only 26% of growth and the surplus represents a large opportunity for forest products and bioenergy applications. We used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare mitigation options, using fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions per unit electricity generation as criteria. LCA results revealed that co-firing with forestry residuals is the most attractive option and geologic sequestration is the least attractive option, based on the two criteria. Biologic sequestration is intermediate but likely infeasible because of very large land area requirements. Our study revealed that biomass feedstock potentials from land and forest resources are not limiting mitigation activities, but the most practical approach is likely a combination of options that optimize additional social, environmental and economic criteria.     

CCS: A future CO2 mitigation option for Germany?—A bottom-up approach

The role that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies could play within the framework of an overall CO₂ mitigation strategy is examined in the form of scenarios up to 2030 with the example of Germany. As the calculations show, the use of CCS can represent an interesting mitigation option in view of stringent CO₂ reduction goals. The scenarios, performed with the aid of the IKARUS optimization model, however, also show that according to cost-efficiency criteria a large number of measures would have to be taken covering all energy sectors. CCS can at best represent one element in an overall strategy. The model results show that a mitigation goal for 2030 corresponding to a 35% reduction of CO₂ as compared to 1990 is necessary to trigger a significant contribution of CCS. As an alternative to a CO₂ restriction, we also calculated reduction scenarios based on CO₂ penalties. These scenarios showed that a penalty price of approximately 30 €/tCO₂ is necessary before CCS can be included in the model.