Air quality and environmental impacts of alternative vehicle technologies in Ontario,Canada

This study is focused on the province-wide emissions in Ontario, Canada and urban air pollution in the city of Toronto. The life-cycle (LC) impacts of utilizing alternative fuels for transportation purposes is considered in terms of six major stressors for climate change, acidification and urban air quality. The vehicles considered are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (FCPHEVs). Modeling of the penetration rates for these types of vehicles has been completed based on the maximum base-load capacity of Ontario's electricity grid to accommodate the generation of hydrogen and charging of vehicles using grid electricity. Results show that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from adoption of PHEVs or FCVs will exceed 3% of the current emissions from the transportation sector in Ontario while FCPHEVs may achieve almost twice this reduction. All vehicles exhibit similar impacts on the precursors for photochemical smog although the province-wide effects differ significantly.     

Hydrogen economy transition in Ontario – Canada considering the electricity grid constraints

This paper investigates the feasibility of electrolytic hydrogen production for the transport sector during off-peak periods in Ontario. This analysis is based on the existing electricity system infrastructure and its planned future development up to 2025. First, a simplified but realistic zonal based model for Ontario's electricity transmission network is developed. Then, based on Ontario's Integrated Power System Plan (IPSP), a zonal pattern of generation capacity procurement in Ontario from 2008 to 2025 is proposed, specifying the total effective generation capacity in each zone that contributes to base-load energy. Finally, an optimization model is developed to find the optimal size of hydrogen production plants to be developed in different zones, as well as optimal hydrogen transportation routes to achieve a feasible hydrogen economy penetration in Ontario up to 2025. The proposed model is shown to be an effective planning tool for electrolysis based hydrogen economy studies. The results of the present study demonstrate that the present and projected electricity grid in Ontario can be optimally exploited for hydrogen production, achieving 1.2–2.8% levels of hydrogen economy penetration by 2025 without any additional grid or power generation investments beyond those currently planned.     

The role of hydrogen cars in the economy of California

Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative transportation fuel that could reduce energy consumption and eliminate tailpipe emissions when used in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). To investigate the potential effects of hydrogen vehicles on California’s economy over the next two decades, we employed the modified Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model and a California-specific computable general equilibrium model. Results indicate that, even in the aggressive scenario, hydrogen cars can only account for a minor fraction of the on-road fleet through 2030. Although new sales could drop sharply, conventional gasoline cars and carryover pre-2010 vehicles are still expected to dominate the on-road vehicle stock and consume the majority of transportation energy through 2030. Transportation energy consumption could decline dramatically, mainly because of the fuel economy advantage of FCVs over conventional cars. Both moderate and aggressive hydrogen scenarios are estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California’s economy. However, the negative economic impacts could be lessened as the market for hydrogen and FCVs builds up. Based on the economic optimization model, both hydrogen scenarios would have a negative economic impact on California’s oil refining sector and, as expected, a positive impact on the other directly related sectors that contribute to either hydrogen production or FCV manufacturing.     

A realistic framework to a greener supply chain for electric vehicles

The quantity of electric vehicles in the transport sector has steadily risen over the last 10 years. Most developed countries and China have laid out ambitious plans for electric vehicles penetration. However, there are several challenges that must be addressed on the supply‐chain side of the problem for a successful transition toward an alternative and less environmentally harmful transport system. This study proposes a methodology for the optimal plan and decision making of primary energy sources, electricity generation, electricity distribution to vehicles' charging stations, carbon capture and sequestration, and electric vehicles' charging stations network to satisfy the electricity demand of the overall economy including electric vehicles at a regional/countrywide level under operation and green constraints. The optimization problem was modeled as a mixed integer program in general algebraic modeling system (GAMS). The formulation was employed to propose the upcoming electricity supply chain for electric vehicles in the most populous German state (North Rhine‐Westphalia) in 2025. The optimization show that fossil‐based power still controls the generation in 2025, while carbon capture and sequestration along with higher renewable penetration help meeting the state's greenhouse gases (GHG) emission target. The charging stations network expansion consists of 12 820 charging points mainly alternating current (AC) chargers (22‐kW capacity).     

Lifecycle performance assessment of fuel cell/battery electric vehicles

This paper has performed an assessment of lifecycle (as known as well-to-wheels, WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption of a fuel cell vehicle (FCV). The simulation tool MATLAB/Simulink is employed to examine the real-time behaviors of an FCV, which are used to determine the energy efficiency and the fuel economy of the FCV. Then, the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) model is used to analyze the fuel-cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions for hydrogen fuels. Three potential pathways of hydrogen production for FCV application are examined, namely, steam reforming of natural gas, water electrolysis using grid electricity, and water electrolysis using photovoltaic (PV) electricity, respectively. Results show that the FCV has the maximum system efficiency of 60%, which occurs at about 25% of the maximum net system power. In addition, the FCVs fueled with PV electrolysis hydrogen could reduce about 99.2% energy consumption and 46.6% GHG emissions as compared to the conventional gasoline vehicles (GVs). However, the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions of the FCVs fueled with grid-electrolysis hydrogen are 35% and 52.8% respectively higher than those of the conventional GVs. As compared to the grid-based battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the FCVs fueled with reforming hydrogen from natural gas are about 79.0% and 66.4% in the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively.     

Assessment of primary impacts of a hydrogen economy in New Zealand using UniSyD

Small economies such as New Zealand risk significant economic hardship without careful evaluation of alternatives to petroleum-based transportation due to the adverse effects of climate change and depleting international oil reserves. This paper uses an integrated multi-regional multi-fleet system dynamics model of New Zealand's energy economy to assess the primary impacts of alternative vehicle fleet technologies. Results suggest that hydrogen fuelled HICEs and FCVs may offer significantly greater economic savings than BEVs due to a much lower capital cost. Under our Base Case, 65% of the light fleet are HICEs and FCVs and 5% BEVs. Excluding hydrogen vehicles from the vehicle fleet can result in an average annual cost of US$562 per vehicle between 2015 and 2050. Co-production of hydrogen and electricity using coal gasification with carbon capture and storage is the dominant long term hydrogen production technology.     

Assessing green energy growth in Nepal with a hydropower-hydrogen integrated power grid model

The involvement of green hydrogen in energy transformation is getting global attention. This assessment examines the hydrogen production and its utilization potential in one of the hydropower-rich regions, Nepal under various demand growth and technology intervention scenarios by developing a power grid model of 52 nodes and 68 transmission lines operating at an hourly time-step. The model incorporates a grid-connected hydrogen storage system as well as charging stations for electric and hydrogen vehicles. The least-costly pathways for power grid expansion at the nodal and provincial levels are identified through optimization. The results show that 32 GW of installed capacity is required to meet domestic electricity demand and 14 GW more hydropower should be exploited to completely decarbonize the transport sector by 2050. For maintaining 50% shares of hydrogen vehicle in the transport sector and meet government electricity export targets, Nepal requires 5.7 GW, 12 GW and 23 GW of the additional electrolyzer, hydrogen storage tanks and storage-based hydropower capacities respectively. For a given electricity demand, introducing hydrogen systems can reduce the capacity requirements of hydro storage by storing surplus power generated from pondage run-of-the-river and run-of-the-river hydropower during the rainy season and using it in the dry season.     

Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland

This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland׳s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand׳s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government.     

The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and GDP in Pakistan

This study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption, its price and real GDP at the aggregate and sectoral level in Pakistan. Using annual data for the period 1960–2008, the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption. In particular, growth in output in commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption, while in residential sector, growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption. The study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises. This is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding.     

Economical planning of fuel cell vehicle-to-grid integrated green buildings with a new hybrid optimization algorithm

Popularity of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCVs) is an important criterion for solving the global problem of reducing CO₂ emissions. However, the overall cost of FCVs and hydrogen fuel production is relatively high, so FCV promotion is slow. Considering that FCVs have near-zero CO₂ emissions and high endurance, which is suitable for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems, this study aims to analyze the economic potential of the fuel cell vehicle-to-grid (FCV2G) systems to promote FCVs to the highest level. For this purpose, a large-scale green building was first selected as the research target and an agent to provide V2G services for the power grid. Then, Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the vehicle visiting time. A discharge model was also developed. Considering CO₂ emission price and self-elasticity coefficient of discharge price, an overall economic optimization model was presented. Then, the hybrid algorithm of competitive swarm optimization (CSO) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) was applied to optimize the model, which not only led to definite results and reduced standard deviation, but also eliminated the weakness of the CSO, i.e., convergence speed and poor performance in some benchmark functions. The simulation results indicated the proposed algorithm had faster convergence and more accuracy in finding the optimal solution than other optimization algorithms. Moreover, the overall economic profit improved in the presence of FCVs. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed on six parameters, including daily electricity price, battery cost, fuel cell cost, CO₂ emission price, power grid carbon emission, and hydrogen cost. The results showed FCV2G system had high development potential as well as great economic profit increasing over time.     

Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios

Both fuel cell and electric vehicles have the potential to play a major role in a transformation towards a low carbon transport system that meets travel demands in a cleaner and more efficient way if hydrogen and electricity was produced in a sustainable manner. Cost reductions are central to this challenge, since these technologies are currently too expensive to compete with conventional vehicles based on fossil fuels. One important mechanism through which technology costs fall is learning-by-doing, the process by which cumulative global deployment leads to cost reduction. This paper develops long-term scenarios by implementing global technology learning endogenously in the TIAM-UCL global energy system model to analyse the role of hydrogen and electricity to decarbonise the transport sector. The analysis uses a multi-cluster global technology learning approach where key components (fuel cell, electric battery and electric drive train), to which learning is applied, are shared across different vehicle technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and battery operated vehicles in cars, light goods vehicles and buses. The analysis shows that hydrogen and electricity can play a critical role to decarbonise the transport sector. They emerge as complementary transport fuels, rather than as strict competitors, in the short and medium term, with both deployed as fuels in all scenarios. However, in the very long-term when the transport sector has been almost completely decarbonised, technology competition between hydrogen and electricity does arise, in the sense that scenarios using more hydrogen in the transport sector use less electricity and vice versa.     

Environmental and economic appraisal of power generation capacity expansion plan in Nigeria

The power sector in Nigeria is undergoing structural reforms aimed at improving and expanding the current grid generation capacity and distribution network. The Government has injected huge funds into this sector while also granting licences to private companies for the provision of electricity. It is also aiming to increase electricity generation capacity to 25,000 MW by 2020 from the current installed capacity of 6500 MW while also pledging to connect 75% of the population to the grid from the current 40% by 2025. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of the energy policy in Nigeria and presents the life cycle environmental and economic analysis of the current and future electricity sector. The results show that all the life cycle impacts and economic costs increase significantly over the time-period (2003–2030), but at different rates depending on the types of technologies deployed. Renewables such as large hydro and solar proposed by the Government have a potential to reduce the overall life cycle environmental impacts from the electricity mix, considering their lower environmental impacts compared to fossil-fuels. However, this requires a five-fold increase in grid investments from the current US$1.7 billion per year to US$9.40 billion by 2030.     

Analysis of Ontario's hydrogen economy demands from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

The ‘Hydrogen Economy’ is a proposed system where hydrogen is produced from carbon dioxide free energy sources and is used as an alternative fuel for transportation. The utilization of hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) can significantly decrease air pollutants and greenhouse gases emission from the transportation sector. In order to build the future hydrogen economy, there must be a significant development in the hydrogen infrastructure, and huge investments will be needed for the development of hydrogen production, storage, and distribution technologies. This paper focuses on the analysis of hydrogen demand from hydrogen FCVs in Ontario, Canada, and the related cost of hydrogen. Three potential hydrogen demand scenarios over a long period of time were projected to estimate hydrogen FCVs market penetration, and the costs associated with the hydrogen production, storage and distribution were also calculated. A sensitivity analysis was implemented to investigate the uncertainties of some parameters on the design of the future hydrogen infrastructure. It was found that the cost of hydrogen is very sensitive to electricity price, but other factors such as water price, energy efficiency of electrolysis, and plant life have insignificant impact on the total cost of hydrogen produced.     

The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power.     

Commercializing light-duty plug-in/plug-out hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles: “Mobile Electricity” technologies and opportunities

Starting from the premise that new consumer value must drive hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicle (H₂FCV) commercialization, a group of opportunities collectively called “Mobile Electricity” is characterized. Mobile Electricity (Me-) redefines H₂FCVs as innovative products able to import and export electricity across the traditional vehicle boundary. Such vehicles could provide home recharging and mobile power, for example for tools, mobile activities, emergencies, and electric-grid-support services. This study integrates and extends previous analyses of H₂FCVs, plug-in hybrids, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power. Further, it uses a new electric-drive-vehicle and vehicular-distributed-generation model to estimate zero-emission-power versus zero-emission-driving tradeoffs, costs, and grid-support revenues for various electric-drive vehicle types and levels of infrastructure service. By framing market development in terms of new consumer value flowing from Me-, this study suggests a way to move beyond the battery versus fuel-cell zero-sum game and towards the development of integrated plug-in/plug-out hybrid platforms. As one possible extension of this Me- product platform, H₂FCVs might supply clean, high-power, and profitable Me- services as the technologies and markets mature.     

How to decarbonize the transport sector?

This article investigates possible evolution pathways for the transport sector during the 21st century, globally and in Europe, under a climate change control scenario. We attempt to shed light on the question how the transport sector should best be decarbonized. We perform our study with the global bottom-up energy systems model TIAM-ECN, a version of the TIAM model that is broadly used for the purpose of developing energy technology and climate policy scenarios, which we adapted for analyzing in particular the transport sector. Given the global aggregated perspective of TIAM-ECN, that in its current version yields at every point in time a single CO₂ price for different forms of energy use across geographic regions and economic sectors, it generates a decarbonization process that for the transport sector occurs later in time than for the power sector. This merely reflects that emission reductions are generally cheaper for electricity production than for transportation, and that it is thus cost-minimizing to spend limited financial resources available for CO₂ emissions abatement in the power sector first. In our scenarios the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines and fuel cells, rather than electricity as energy carrier and batteries to store it, gradually becomes the dominant transport technology. This outcome is in agreement with some recent publications but is at loggerheads with the current popularity of the electric car. Based on sensitivity analysis we conclude that even if the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure proves about an order of magnitude more costly than modeled in our base case, electricity based transportation only broadly emerges if simultaneously also the costs of electric cars go down by at least 40% with respect to our reference costs. One of the explanations for why the electric car is today, by e.g. entrepreneurs, often considered the supposed winner amongst multiple future transportation options is that the decision horizon of many analysts is no more than a few decades, instead of a full century. Electric cars fit better the current infrastructure than hydrogen fueled vehicles, so that from a short time perspective (covering the next decade or two) investments are not optimally spent by establishing an extensive hydrogen distribution network. Hence the path-dependency created by the present existence of a vast power transmission and distribution network can make electricity the most efficient choice for transportation, but only if the time frame considered is short. Electric transportation generally proves the more expensive alternative in our long-term perspective, except when electric car costs are assumed to drop substantially.     

Transitioning electricity systems: The environmental benefits and economic cost of repurposing surplus electricity in non-conventional end users

A power grid with a lower global warming impact has the potential to extend its benefits to energy systems that conventionally do not utilize electricity as their primary energy source. This study presents the case of Ontario where the role of complementing policies in transitioning electricity systems is assessed. The policy cost to incentivize surplus low emission electricity via an established mechanism for the transportation sector has been estimated (Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program). It is estimated that the 9056 (4760 battery and 4296 plug-in hybrid) electric vehicles that qualified for incentives from the provincial government at the end of 2016 vehicles cost $732.5-$883.9 to reduce a tonne of CO_2,e emissions over an eight year lifetime. This is then compared with the potential cost incurred by two power to gas energy hubs that utilize clean surplus electricity from the province to offset emissions within the natural gas sector. The use of hydrogen-enriched natural gas and synthetic natural gas (SNG) offsets emissions at $87.8 and $228.7 per tonne of CO_2,e in the natural gas sector. This analysis highlights the potential future costs for incentivizing new clean technologies such as electric vehicles and power to gas energy hubs in jurisdictions with a transitioning electricity system.     

Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO₂ emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).     

Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO₂ emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005–2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity.     

Integrating private transport into renewable energy policy: The strategy of creating intelligent recharging grids for electric vehicles

A new business model for accelerating the introduction of electric vehicles into private transport systems involves the provision by an Electric Recharge Grid Operator (ERGO) of an intelligent rechargeable network in advance of the vehicles themselves. The ERGO business model creates a market for co-ordinated production and consumption of renewable energy. The innovative contribution of the model rests in its ability to combine two problems and thereby solve them in a fresh way. One problem derives from utilizing power grids with a substantial increase in renewable electric energy production (as witnessed in the Danish case with wind energy) and managing the resulting fluctuating supply efficiently. The other problem concerns finding ways to reduce CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. The ERGO business model effectively solves both problems, by transforming EVs into distributed storage devices for electricity, thus enabling a fresh approach to evening out of fluctuating and unpredictable energy sources, while drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This integrated solution carries many other associated benefits, amongst which are the possibility of introducing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) distributed power generation; introducing IT intelligence to the grid, and creating virtual power plants from distributed sources; and providing new applications for carbon credits in the decarbonisation of the economy. The countries and regions that have signed on to this model and are working to introduce it in 2009–2011 include Israel, Denmark, Australia, and in the US, the Bay Area cities and the state of Hawaii.