长汀城市建设区洪水淹没风险研究

洪水淹没风险分析是进行城市防洪安全研究、合理布局城市建设用地的主要依据之一。本文基于GIS栅格数据空间分析技术,结合了传统淹没分析方法,使用长汀城市建设区地形和洪水水文数据资料,对研究区在10%、5%、2%三种频率下的洪水淹没风险进行了定量化分析,提出了城市建设用地控制原则,为城市规划中协调城市防洪安全与城市建设用地布局提供了有价值的参考。研究结果显示研究区洪水淹没风险总体上较高,城市已建设区洪水淹没风险高于其他区域。     

Introducing a method of human health risk evaluation for planning and soil quality management of heavy metal-polluted soils—An example from Grugliasco (Italy)

European governmental institutions, as well as local communities, have recently become aware of the threats arising from soil pollution for the welfare of the population. Humans contact with soils is more likely in urban than in rural areas, and is strongly dependent on land use. Spatial planning and land management may have important impacts on the potential transfer of pollutants from contaminated soils to humans. In the present study, we propose a land use-based method for the evaluation of human health risks arising from heavy metal-contaminated urban soils, addressing in particular the influence of planning measures and land use changes on such risks. The method accounts for the role of the bioavailability of soil metals as a key factor in health risk assessment. In order to increase method applicability, a step-by-step procedure and a calculation tool were elaborated. The method can be used to identify areas in which the current or planned land use is associated with unacceptable health risks and to optimise the allocation of a certain land use to areas that are well suited and where the risks are minimal. A risk index is calculated for the area, taking the land use into consideration, as the sum of the risks from different exposure pathways and different heavy metals. For those areas where risk is identified as unacceptable, alternative planning or management options should be defined to achieve a maximal risk reduction in a cost-effective way. The method is illustrated using the Italian municipality, Grugliasco.     

Introducing a method of human health risk evaluation for planning and soil quality management of heavy metal-polluted soils—An example from Grugliasco (Italy)

European governmental institutions, as well as local communities, have recently become aware of the threats arising from soil pollution for the welfare of the population. Humans contact with soils is more likely in urban than in rural areas, and is strongly dependent on land use. Spatial planning and land management may have important impacts on the potential transfer of pollutants from contaminated soils to humans. In the present study, we propose a land use-based method for the evaluation of human health risks arising from heavy metal-contaminated urban soils, addressing in particular the influence of planning measures and land use changes on such risks. The method accounts for the role of the bioavailability of soil metals as a key factor in health risk assessment. In order to increase method applicability, a step-by-step procedure and a calculation tool were elaborated. The method can be used to identify areas in which the current or planned land use is associated with unacceptable health risks and to optimise the allocation of a certain land use to areas that are well suited and where the risks are minimal. A risk index is calculated for the area, taking the land use into consideration, as the sum of the risks from different exposure pathways and different heavy metals. For those areas where risk is identified as unacceptable, alternative planning or management options should be defined to achieve a maximal risk reduction in a cost-effective way. The method is illustrated using the Italian municipality, Grugliasco.     

高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略 ——以深圳湾地区为例

气候变化背景下，高密度沿海城市受 到风暴潮和极端降雨引起的洪涝灾害冲击。文 章基于韧性理论构建城市空间洪涝风险指标 体系，制定该评价框架的实施路径；基于水文 软件Mike21、GIS平台及其空间网络分析插件 sDNA，复合“天鸽”台风风暴潮与极端降雨情 景，整合深圳湾地区的路网和土地利用进行危 险性、暴露度、脆弱性和适应能力等多源数据； 通过GIS栅格计算得到各要素层分析及洪涝风 险评价可视化地图，结果显示，潮、洪、涝突破 刚性标准加剧了危险性，高密度城市环境增大了 危险区域的暴露度，路网和土地利用布局具有 一定脆弱性，需完善应急疏散和避难场所规划以增强适应能力；根据评价地图识别高风险片区，从路网和土地利用等城市空间物质要素出发， 提出应对洪涝灾害的适应性规划策略。     

Applying Earthquake Risk Analysis Techniques to Land Use Planning

Recently developed methods of risk analysis are capable of modeling variations in earthquake hazard and its resultant damage to urban development. This type of risk analysis can provide useful information for land use decisions. Our article describes a probabilistic approach to earthquake risk analysis, which begins by estimating and mapping the expected level of ground motion over a study area. Areas subject to the earthquake-induced secondary hazards of landsliding and liquefaction are identified and combined with ground motion to describe the overall hazard. Damage estimates (by type of structure) can be produced for either the existing land use pattern or alternative future scenarios; that information can be used to evaluate alternative land use patterns in terms of their potential for earthquake damage. To illustrate the approach we use a case study application of earthquake risk analysis techniques to an area in San Luis Obispo County, California. We summarize the reactions of several practicing planners to this method of earthquake risk assessment, and we discuss the implications of improved risk analysis techniques for land use planning.     

Renal pathologies in giant toads (Bufo marinus) vary with land use

A variety of human land uses involve the release of toxins into the environment. Wildlife live alongside humans across this array of land uses and thus, are exposed to varying chemical milieus. Kidneys are the principle excretory organs for vertebrates and excessive or chronic exposure to exogenous toxins can lead to renal pathology and renal failure. Although studies have linked chemical exposure to specific renal diseases across diverse taxa, none compare renal lesions occurring in wildlife living in different types of human-modified landscapes. We identify lesions characteristic of renal stress, including toxin exposure, in 82 giant toad (Bufo marinus) males living in habitats ranging from suburban to agricultural. In a previous study [McCoy K.A., Bortnick L.J., Campbell C.M., Hamlin H.J., Guillette L.J., Jr., St. Mary C.M. Agriculture Alters Gonadal Form and Function in Bufo marinus. Environ Health Persp; in press.], these individuals were examined for gonadal abnormalities, which were significantly and positively associated with percentage of agriculture at the collection site. Thus, we hypothesized the same association for renal abnormalities. We scored gross anatomical abnormalities and used light microscopy to identify tubular and interstitial lesions that have been associated with toxicant exposure in other organisms, including humans. Renal lesions indicative of tubular disease were observed at one suburban and two agricultural sites, whereas interstitial lesions were most severe at one agricultural site. Although there was no relationship between frequency of renal disease and proportion of agriculture in the collection vicinity, the renal lesions we identify are consistent with toxin exposure and are similar to those found in human drug abusers and patients suffering medication-induced nephropathy. This is the first study to describe renal lesions in a wild amphibian species and investigate the distribution of renal lesions across human altered landscapes. Indentifying the chemicals inducing renal lesions across these landscapes, their toxicological mechanisms, and their implications on wildlife health will help us devise strategies to mitigate the impacts of toxins on humans and animals living in human-modified environments.     

基于生态系统服务空间流的洪涝调节服务需求制图与生态空间优先级识别

中国快速城市化地区面临严重洪涝风险和洪涝调节服务供需空间的分离.为识别在满足洪涝调节服务需求方面重要性高的生态空间以纳入保护的优先级,提出了一种在生态空间中绘制洪涝调节服务需求的新技术:基于生态系统服务空间流,利用流量、流边界、流方向、分配原则及其修正因子4个多维指标,表征将服务需求从建设空间向生态空间分配与投射过程的...     

Microbial risks associated with exposure to pathogens in contaminated urban flood water

Urban flood incidents induced by heavy rainfall in many cases entail flooding of combined sewer systems. These flood waters are likely to be contaminated and may pose potential health risks to citizens exposed to pathogens in these waters. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the microbial risk associated with sewer flooding incidents. Concentrations of Escherichia coli, intestinal enterococci and Campylobacter were measured in samples from 3 sewer flooding incidents. The results indicate faecal contamination: faecal indicator organism concentrations were similar to those found in crude sewage under high-flow conditions and Campylobacter was detected in all samples. Due to infrequent occurrence of such incidents only a small number of samples could be collected; additional data were collected from controlled flooding experiments and analyses of samples from combined sewers. The results were used for a screening-level quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Calculated annual risks values vary from 5 × 10⁻⁶ for Cryptosporidium assuming a low exposure scenario to 0.03 for Giardia assuming a high exposure scenario. The results of this screening-level risk assessment justify further research and data collection to allow more reliable quantitative assessment of health risks related to contaminated urban flood waters.     

Using isopleth mapping to evaluate landslide activity in relation to agricultural practices

In comparison to urban or suburban areas, agricultural lands generally have a lower landslide risk. This does not necessarily reflect a lower degree of landslide hazard. The lower risk is more often due to the sparser population and lower property values of rural areas. Population and property values influence methods applicable to assessing landslide hazard in rural areas. The cost of data and size of areas over which assessments must be made for agricultural lands render many assessment procedures uneconomic. Their use is only justified in populous, high-value areas. Many agricultural practices may have the same potential for initiating landslide activity recognized for some land uses in urban areas. Like their urban counterparts, residents dependant onagriculture for their livelihood suffer from the consequences of landslides. For these reasons, a method for landslide hazard assessment suitable for rural areas is needed. This need is satisfied by isopleth mapping of landslides. Isopleth mapping provides an economical means for assessing the degree of landslide hazard present within a large area. Data needs are limited to topographic and landslide maps. Isopleth maps facilitate comparison of landslide data to other information for developing a better understanding of how agricultural practices affect landslide activity. Their use in the Tuscany region of Italy provide insight on how changing agricultural practices altered landslide activity. Isopleth maps serve as a simple way to accomplish landslide hazard zonation. Landslide hazard zonation identifies locations where land use controls should be applied to achieve hazard reduction. Hazard reduction based on isopleth mapping is illustrated by their use in timber sale planning in California, USA.     

Semi-quantitative method to identify the vulnerable areas in terms of building aggregation for probable landslide runout at the regional scale: a case study from Soacha Province,Colombia

Landslide susceptibility and vulnerability maps are key components for urban planning and risk management. The main objective of this research was spatial vulnerability mapping in the probable landslide runout zone in Soacha Province, Colombia. This study included three major steps: identification of a landslide susceptible area, identification of its runout zone, and vulnerability assessment using an area damage index method. The landslide-prone area was identified through a susceptibility analysis using a logistic regression model. In total, 182 landslide locations were collected and randomly distributed as training data (70%) and validation data (30%). The final landslide susceptibility map was validated using the area under the curve method. The validation result showed success and prediction rates of 88.71% and 89.96%, respectively. The Flow-R model was applied to identify the runout zone, and a back-propagation analysis approach was applied to estimate two essential input data for the model, i.e., the travel angle and velocity. From seven locations, the back-propagation analysis showed an average travel angle of 14.6° and an average velocity of 11.4 m/s. A total of 3777 buildings were identified within the probable runout zone. A physical vulnerability assessment was done by finding the ratio between area of buildings and area of runout zone in each small unit boundary. The physical vulnerability was classified as low, moderate, extensive, and complete on the basis of building exposure. The final result revealed that most of the village areas are in null or moderate vulnerability zones. In contrast to the village areas, the city areas include zones of extensive and complete vulnerability. This study showed that about 52% of the area of the city of Cazuca is completely vulnerable, i.e., in areas where abandoned quarry sites are present. The map of vulnerable areas may assist planners in overall landslide risk management.

     

An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis

The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.     

Public health and economic impact of dampness and mold

The public health risk and economic impact of dampness and mold exposures was assessed using current asthma as a health endpoint. Individual risk of current asthma from exposure to dampness and mold in homes from W.J. Fisk, Q. Lei-Gomez & M.J. Mendell [(2007) Indoor Air, [corrected] 17, 284-296], and [corrected] asthma risks calculated from additional studies that reported the prevalence of dampness and mold in homes were used to estimate the proportion of US current asthma cases that are attributable to dampness and mold exposure at 21% (95% confidence internal 12-29%). An examination of the literature covering dampness and mold in schools, offices, and institutional buildings, which is summarized in the Appendix, suggests that risks from exposure in these buildings are similar to risks from exposures in homes. Of the 21.8 million people reported to have asthma in the USA, approximately 4.6 (2.7-6.3) million cases are estimated to be attributable to dampness and mold exposure in the home. Estimates of the national cost of asthma from two prior studies were updated to 2004 and used to estimate the economic impact of dampness and mold exposures. By applying the attributable fraction to the updated national annual cost of asthma, the national annual cost of asthma that is attributable to dampness and mold exposure in the home is estimated to be $3.5 billion ($2.1-4.8 billion). Analysis indicates that exposure to dampness and mold in buildings poses significant public health and economic risks in the USA. These findings are compatible with public policies and programs that help control moisture and mold in buildings. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: There is a need to control moisture in both new and existing construction because of the significant health consequences that can result from dampness and mold. This paper demonstrates that dampness and mold in buildings is a significant public health problem with substantial economic impact.     

The current state of the use of large wood in river restoration and management

Trees fall naturally into rivers generating flow heterogeneity, inducing geomorphological features, and creating habitats for biota. Wood is increasingly used in restoration projects and the potential of wood acting as leaky barriers to deliver natural flood management by ‘slowing the flow’ is recognised. However, wood in rivers can pose a risk to infrastructure and locally increase flood hazards. The aim of this paper is to provide an up‐to‐date summary of the benefits and risks associated with using wood to promote geomorphological processes to restore and manage rivers. This summary was developed through a workshop that brought together academics, river managers, restoration practitioners and consultants in the UK to share science and best practice on wood in rivers. A consensus was developed on four key issues: (i) hydrogeomorphological effects, (ii) current use in restoration and management, (iii) uncertainties and risks and (iv) tools and guidance required to inform process‐based restoration and management.     

对临安河桥镇防洪的思考

巨大的资金需要、对山地景观的破坏、用地的短期性给山地城镇防洪体系的建立带来了巨大的困难。应在符合城镇现有的经济实力的基础条件下,妥善处理防洪用地与其它各项功能用地之间的关系,防洪设施应统一规划、统一实施,使其与城镇景观自然融合。     

NbS在城市雨洪韧性规划中的应用研究

城市雨洪灾害的产生与气候变化、土地利用、防洪排涝基础设施空间布局等密切相关。大量研究证实,单一依靠市政改造雨水管网的传统做法工程成本高、改造难度大,实际效果不理想。而基于自然的解决方案(Nature-based Solutions,Nb S)倡导对生态系统的最小干预,将灰蓝绿基础设施有机结合,为城市雨洪韧性规划提供了一种新思路。采用“理论研究+应用案例”相结合的方法,首先分析了将Nb S理念应用到城市雨洪韧性规划中的切入点,提出Nb S视角下城市雨洪韧性规划的一些思考;其次,应用MIKE FLOOD模型,对场地雨洪风险进行评估;最后,结合应用案例特点,以堤防岸线、水系网络、水位管理为抓手,阐述了Nb S理念在城市雨洪韧性规划中的具体方案。结果表明,Nb S视角下的城市雨洪韧性规划方案具有可行性,以期共同推动Nb S实施行动。     

与洪水和谐相处——科学发展观指导下的城市防洪规划

结合新一轮济南市城市总体规划——城市防洪规划的编制,探讨了基于科学发展观编制城市防洪规划的热点问题:一是合理利用土地,即城市建设不与洪水争地;二是确定城市防洪标准时必须合理与适度,不应一味地追求所谓的高标准,而城市除涝标准应大幅度提高;三是强调雨洪资源化利用,将雨洪灾害转变为资源;四是变堵为疏,重视滞蓄洪区的规划,给洪水以出路;五是河道治理采用生态型河道,体现由以往的改造自然转变为回归自然、顺应自然的治理理念;六是广泛利用防洪非工程措施。     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.     

Integrating socio-economic analysis into decision-support methodology for flood risk management at the development scale (Scotland)

Legislation for Scotland increasingly requires that environmental enhancement schemes must be integral in property construction. With the introduction of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Environment and Water Services Act, developments on areas surrounding an existing watercourse often include river restoration and sustainable flood alleviation schemes. To support this, a decision-making tool is proposed that considers the hazard, exposure and vulnerability of a residential development to flooding. Rather than assessing flood risk purely in terms of hydraulic performance, it is shown that appropriate channel design selection also requires information on the socio-economic impacts. This paper takes a novel stance in predicting the social impact of flooding by using statistical evaluation of census data. This holistic approach to flood risk investigation is suitable for use by developers, planners and councils at a local (development) scale to strategically aid flood alleviation works, emergency planning and housing development.     

The Air is Always Cleaner on the Other Side: Race,Space, and Ambient Air Toxics Exposures in California

Abstract: Environmental justice advocates have recently focused attention on cumulative exposure in minority neighborhoods due to multiple sources of pollution. This article uses U.S. EPA's National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) for 1996 to examine environmental inequality in California, a state that has been a recent innovator in environmental justice policy. We first estimate potential lifetime cancer risks from mobile and stationary sources. We then consider the distribution of these risks using both simple comparisons and a multivariate model in which we control for income, land use, and other explanatory factors, as well as spatial correlation. We find large racial disparities in California's “riskscape” as well as inequalities by other factors and suggest several implications for environmental and land use policy.     

A scenario-based approach to assess Ho Chi Minh City’s urban development strategies against the impact of climate change

This paper presents an approach to quantifying current and future city-wide flood risks to Ho Chi Minh City. Here urban planning scenarios linking urban development and climate change explore the main driving forces of future risk. According to the redefined role of urban environmental planning in times of climate change, spatial planning needs to go beyond traditional planning approaches to bring together, draw upon and integrate individual policies for urban adaptation strategies for land-use planning. Our initial research results highlight that the spatiotemporal processes of urban development, together with climate change, are the central driving forces for climate-related impacts. The influence of planned urban developments to the year 2025 on future flood risk is seen to be significantly greater than that of projected sea-level rise to the year 2100. These results aid local decision making in an effort to better understand the nature of future climate change risks to the city and to identify the main driver of urban exposure.