Model for Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Project Cost for U.S. Roadwork Construction

Change orders are very common in almost every construction project nowadays, often resulting in increases of 5–10% in the contract price. Understanding the consequences of such trends, several studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on the project cost. Most of the studies aimed at the quantification of the change orders were sponsored by contractors’ organizations, where statistical models used to quantify the impact of the change orders on the project cost were based on data supplied by the contractors; a situation that can lead to owner-contractor disagreements related to the quantification method used. In addition, most of the studies tackled commercial and electromechanical work, and very rare studies tackled the field of heavy construction; a field that suffers from change orders because of errors and omissions, scope of work changes, or changes because of unforeseen conditions. This study addresses the need for a statistical model to quantify the increase of the contract price due to change orders in heavy construction projects in Florida. The model is based on data collected from 16 Florida DOT projects with contract values that ranged between $10–$25 million, and that encountered an increase in the contract price from 0.01 to 15%. Eleven variables were analyzed to test their impact on the cost of the change orders. The study concluded that most significant variables that impact the value of the change order, which are (1) the timing of the change order and (2) when the reason for issuing the change order is unforeseen conditions. Two regression models are developed and validated as follows: (1) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 0.01 to 5% and (2) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 5 to 15%. Those models will provide the owner with a retrospective or forward pricing of the change orders, and hence, allow the owner to estimate and utilize contingency amounts.     

Impact of Change Orders on Small Labor-Intensive Projects

In today’s construction, small projects can be just as important if not more important than the larger projects. However, small projects are usually fast track projects, which often involve overlapping design and construction time. Subsequent modifications may be required for the sections that are already under construction. These disruptions to the ongoing project are labeled as change orders. The impact due to changes has been described as the adverse effect upon the unchanged work due to changes in the contract. For this study, 34 projects were selected to develop a statistical model that estimates the amount of labor efficiency lost due to change orders for small projects. The variables in the final model are percent design related changes, percent owner initiated changes, the ratio of actual peak labor to estimated peak labor, the ratio of actual project duration to estimated project duration, and project manager’s percent time on the project. The results of this paper are of value to owners, electrical and mechanical contractors, and construction managers. The model quantifies the impact of change orders by introducing the most important variables that bring the largest disruptions.     

Frequency of Change Orders in Highway Construction Using Alternate Count-Data Modeling Methods

A common problem at state transportation agencies is the inability to complete projects within the original scope of work. Change orders, which are contractual documents issued to accommodate the additional work in a contract, are generally due to root causes such as design errors, unexpected site conditions, and weather conditions, and intermediate causes such as bidding characteristics. At the preaward phase of project management, an improved understanding of the factors that are associated with change orders will be of value and also can serve as a basis for taking steps to reduce concomitant contractual aberrations such as time delay and cost overruns. Recognizing that the occurrence of change orders is a count variable, this paper analyzes the frequency of change orders using a variety of count-modeling methods including the negative binomial, Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. Using 5 years of contract data from Indiana highway projects, appropriate models are estimated to assess the influence of project type, contract type, project duration, and project cost on the frequency of change orders.     

Cumulative Effect of Project Changes for Electrical and Mechanical Construction

Change is inevitable on construction projects, primarily because of the uniqueness of each project and the limited resources of time and money that can be spent on planning, executing, and delivering the project. Change clauses, which authorize the owner to alter work performed by the contractor, are included in most construction contracts and provide a mechanism for equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration. Even so, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price or the time it will take to incorporate the change. What is needed is a method to quantify the impact that the adjustments required by the change will have on the changed and unchanged work. Owners and our legal system recognize that contractors have a right to an adjustment in contract price for owner changes, including the cost associated with materials, labor, lost profit, and increased overhead due to changes. However, the actions of a contractor can impact a project just as easily as those of an owner. A more complex issue is that of determining the cumulative impact that single or multiple change orders may have over the life of a project. This paper presents a method to quantify the cumulative impact on labor productivity for mechanical and electrical construction resulting from changes in the project. Statistical hypothesis testing and correlation analysis were made to identify factors that affect productivity loss resulting from change orders. A multiple regression model was developed to estimate the cumulative impact of change orders. The model includes six significant factors, namely: Percent change, change order processing time, overmanning, percentage of time the project manager spent on the project, percentage of the changes initiated by the owner, and whether the contractor tracks productivity or not. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the model to study the impact of one factor on the productivity loss (%delta). The model can be used proactively to determine the impacts that management decisions will have on the overall project productivity. They may also be used at the conclusion of the project as a dispute resolution tool. It should be noted that every project is unique, so these tools need to be applied with caution.     

Amplitudes of the two-nucleon interaction at 579 MeV

There has been increasing emphasis in recent years on construction contract claims and disputes. This paper examines the frequency of occurrence of 427 separate construction claims which were experienced on 22 federally funded and administered construction projects. The data examined include various claim types, the frequency of their occurrence and the average cost of these claims. Also, various factors thought to influence the frequency of claims occurrence were investigated. This study indicates that the largest proportion of change orders and modifications originate with the owner of the project or with those responsible to the owner.     

Impact of Change Orders on Labor Efficiency for Mechanical Construction

Change orders have become an everyday occurrence in construction. It is widely accepted by both owners and contractors that change orders have an effect on the labor efficiency, but these effects are difficult to quantify and frequently lead to disputes. Data from 61 mechanical construction projects were collected to develop a statistical model that estimates the actual amount of labor efficiency lost due to the change orders. The input variables needed in the model are as follows: (1) The original estimated labor hours; (2) impact classification; (3) total estimated change hours; (4) number of change orders; and (5) the timing of changes. The results of this study show that impacted projects have a larger decrease in labor efficiency than unimpacted projects. Additionally, the later a change order occurs in the life of a project the more impact it will have on the labor efficiency. The results appear to be consistent with the intuition of experienced professionals. Although each project has unique characteristics, the resultant model provides owners and contractors with a baseline measure of lost labor efficiency.     

Impact of Change Orders on Labor Efficiency for Electrical Construction

Change orders are a source of many disputes in today's construction industry. The issue at hand is whether or not the execution of change orders work has a negative impact on overall labor efficiency on a construction project. Previous literature demonstrates evidence that change orders affect labor efficiency. Attempts have been made to quantify these impacts by many researchers, with limited success. Using the electrical construction industry, a research study has been conducted to quantify the impacts of change orders on labor efficiency. In this paper, results of hypothesis testing and regression analysis are presented. A linear regression model that estimates the loss of efficiency, based on a number of independent variables, is also presented. The independent variables used in this model are (1) qualitative and quantitative criteria used to determine whether projects are impacted by changes or not; (2) the estimate of change order hours for the project as a percentage of the original estimate of work hours; (3) the estimate of change order hours for the project; and (4) the total number of years that the project manager had worked in the construction industry. Additional projects were used to validate the model, with an average error rate of 5%. The results of this research study are useful for owners, construction managers, general contractors, and electrical specialty contractors, because they provide a means to estimate the impact of a change order under certain project conditions. This research also identifies factors, which, when understood and effectively managed, may be used to mitigate the impact of a change order on project costs and efficiency.     

工程项目中的合同管理

以某公司为例,介绍了强化工程项目管理中合同管理的具体措施,包括：合同管理机制建设、抓好评审环节、监控履行过程、风险管理、变更管理以及建立合同管理信息系统等。事实证明．加强合同管理是提升项目管理水平的必经之路。     

Effects of Delivery Systems on Change Order Size and Frequency in Mechanical Construction

Change orders represent one of the largest sources of cost growth on building construction projects. Field generated, or “unforeseen” change orders can also be highly disruptive to field productivity. Design-build delivery methods can potentially help minimize change orders on construction projects. This study was performed to closely examine the effects of delivery methods on the frequency and magnitude of change orders in mechanical construction, and how design-build business practices can be used to minimize the frequency of field generated chance orders. In a study of 598 change orders occurring on 120 construction projects performed by the same contractor, the total number of change orders was found to be close to the same on design-build and design-bid-build projects, however an 87% decrease in the average number of unforeseen change orders was observed on design-build projects versus design-bid-build projects. In addition, the average size of unforeseen change orders was 86% smaller on design-build projects. A detailed and qualified presentation of the research methodology and resulting data is provided. Key attributes and business practices leading to the results are discussed and practical applications of this research for owners and contractors are provided.     

Leader Orientation of Construction Site Managers

This article briefly reviews the ways in which leadership is conceptualized and taken into consideration in the context of construction projects. Data are presented that derive from a study of 43 site managers in England and Wales and that take Fiedler's Contingency Model as the point of departure. The results indicate that variations in leader orientation have an impact on project effectiveness and that this relationship is contingent upon a number of factors, including project length, value, and the extent of reliance on sub-contract labor. In particular, the results indicate that an emphasis on relationships in site managers' leader orientations is more likely to enhance project performance than an emphasis on tasks. The implications of these findings for the study of construction management are examined.     

Hybrid Model Incorporating Real Options with Process Centric and System Dynamics Modeling to Assess Value of Investments in Alternative Dispute Resolution Techniques

Project-specific dispute resolution ladders (DRLs) are typically implemented in construction projects to resolve issues arising between the project participants. The DRL typically consists of single or multiple alternative dispute resolution (ADR) techniques to address construction issues at the three levels of escalation: conflicts; disputes; and claims. However, a DRL requires significant investments to cover the direct costs incurred in-house by the project participants or, externally, if construction specialists and lawyers are recruited to assist in the resolution. Thus, the benefits of the DRL implementation in a construction project must outweigh its costs for the implementation to be worthwhile. This paper presents a methodology to study the effect of different resolution strategies on the value of the investment in a DRL using option/real option theories from financial engineering, process centric modeling, and system dynamics methodology. Of particular interest in this paper is the integration of these research methodologies into a computer model to support the evaluation of the DRL investment in a particular construction project by taking into account the characteristics of (1) the project and (2) the different ADR techniques chosen for the DRL implementation. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the application of the computer model in a real construction project. The results of the simulation serve two main purposes. First, the results of the simulation are used to verify the intended model behavior in terms of proper integration of the three methodologies (i.e., real options, process centric, and system dynamics) in one computer system. Second, the model application to a real construction project using actual project data illustrates the potential of the model in providing the project participants with information related to the expected number of claims and change orders resolved at each level of the DRL, the change in the expected savings during the construction phase, and finally the value of the investment from the perspective of the project owner.     

Relating Cost Growth from the Initial Estimate to Design Fee for Transportation Projects

Intuitively, there should be a relationship between the size of the design fee for a transportation project and the quality of the resulting design. This study sought that relationship by looking at the fee expressed as a percentage of the construction cost and the final construction cost growth from the engineer’s initial estimate of the construction cost at the time the design contract was awarded. The research team analyzed 31 projects from the Oklahoma Turnpike Authority with a total construction value of $90 million. The projects were divided into road and bridge projects. Based on the results of the analysis, it seems that as the design fee decreases, the absolute percentage of construction cost growth from the engineer’s early estimate increases. The relationship is strongest for bridge projects, which tend to be more technically complex to design than roadway projects. This confirms for U.S. projects the result of an earlier study in Saudi Arabia. This paper concludes that the design fee should be viewed as an investment at a point in time where the ability to impact the project is the highest and can accrue the benefit of reduced cost growth.     

Sources of Changes in Design–Build Contracts for a Governmental Owner

In recent years, many U.S. federal, state, and local governments have been authorized to use the design–build method of project delivery instead of the traditional design–bid–build method. Recent studies have not been definitive on the cost advantage of design–build for governmental owners. There are fewer change orders in design–build due to design errors because the designer (architect/engineer) and contractor are one entity, but there are other causes of change orders. Some literature suggests that changes requested by the owner of the facility are greater with the design–build method. This research examines the causes for construction-phase changes in 14 design–build and 20 design–bid–build projects. Total changes, expressed as number per contract, cost per contract, or percentage of original contract, were significantly lower in design–build. Fewer design errors in design–build accounted for this advantage. The number of owner-requested changes was significantly greater in design–build. The cost of owner-requested changes, averaged over all the projects, was significantly less for design–bid–build. The differences in changes due to differing site conditions were not significant. The concept that there are more owner-requested changes in design–build projects is supported by this research.     

Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures

This paper identifies the risk factors associated with international construction joint ventures (JVs) from and “integrated” perspective. The risk factors are grouped into three main groups: (1) Internal; (2) Project-specific; and (3) External. It examines the most effective mitigating measures adopted by construction professionals in managing these risks for their construction projects in East Asia. Based on an international survey of contractors, it was found that the most critical risk factors exist in the financial aspects of JVs, government policies, economic conditions, and project relationship. When entering a foreign construction market in the form of a JV, a foreign construction company could reduce its risks if it would carefully select its local partner, ensure that a good JV agreement is drafted, choose the right staff and subcontractors, establish good project relationships, and secure a fair construction contract with its client.     

Framework of Success Criteria for Design/Build Projects

Success has always been the ultimate goal of every activity, and a construction project is no exception. Due to the ambiguous definition of project success and the different perceptions of participants toward this concept, it may be difficult to tell whether a project is successful as there is a lack of consensus. Time, cost, and quality have long been the success criteria used to evaluate the performance of a construction project. However, such a list has been criticized as not being comprehensive. Even studies of the project success of a particular construction method, such as the design/build procurement system, are lacking in most previous research considering construction projects in general. This paper sets out to establish criteria for project success for a design/build project in construction, first by identifying relevant measures of project success for a construction project in past studies, with particular emphasis on design/build projects, and then by establishing a comprehensive assessment framework for project success for design/build projects. The significant impacts on the construction field of study, in terms of educational value and practical use, are also presented. With little research in the project success of design/build projects, the writers suggest a research focus for the study.     

Budgeting Owner’s Construction Contingency

This paper attempts to find ways to reduce an owner’s construction contingency budget such that just enough contingency is allocated that will allow the owner to deal with uncertainties but at the same time not tie up valuable funds that can be used for other activities. It is suggested that the common practice of allocating a fixed owner contingency (e.g., 10% of the contract value) to all projects contracted out by an owner is not appropriate. Instead, a methodology is proposed whereby the owner (1) analyzes historical project data; (2) identifies the line items that are problematic; (3) takes the necessary measures at the preconstruction stage to streamline these line items with respect to site conditions, time constraints, constructability issues, and project scope; and (4) finally budgets contingency funds based on this information. A case study was conducted to analyze the contingencies budgeted and actually spent by an owner in nine parking lot projects. The findings indicated that a systematic approach such as the methodology proposed in this paper is likely to minimize the owner’s contingency budget.     

How Relational are Construction Contracts?

For many years, the construction industry has relied on formal contracts to define and enforce the obligations and rights of contracting parties. Legal scholars have suggested that, based on their transaction characteristics, there are three different forms of contracts: classical, neoclassical, and relational. Of these, which form is more appropriate for use in construction projects? With increasing awareness of the importance of teamwork in construction, there is clear evidence of a rising trend in adopting a partnering approach to construction project delivery. For projects that seek to achieve a partnering relationship, relational contracts that value relationships, trust, and communication appear to be the appropriate form of contract. This paper discusses the application of relational contracts in construction by examining the fundamental question “How relational are construction contracts?” The degree of relationalism is assessed using a relational index comprising eight factors: cooperation, organizational culture, risk, trust, good faith, flexibility, the use of alternative dispute resolution, and contract duration. It was found that in the traditional design–bid–build form of delivery, the main contract and domestic subcontract forms are more relational than those of the nominated subcontract and the direct labor contract. The study was conducted in Hong Kong.     

Arbitral Tribunal Proceedings Case Study: Egyptian Large-Scale Construction Project

This paper investigates how arbitration is used as a dispute resolution mechanism in Egyptian large scale construction projects and what are the types of issues that construction professionals should address when they encounter claims in the Egyptian construction market. To meet the goals and objectives of this study, a research project was conducted to study the arbitration process for a dispute that was in excess of $31 million, which arose out as a result of the proceeds of a large-scale project with an original contact price of $85 million that was constructed in Cairo, Egypt. This research project analytically investigated the background of the conflicts, the arbitral proceedings, and the award issued by the arbitral tribunal. Based on such thorough study, it was concluded that arbitration did not provide a timely and cost-effective resolution for the said dispute. Moreover, the same study has raised questions in relation to the overall management of megaconstruction projects in Egypt namely: (1) the impartiality of project managers; (2) the magnitude of change orders and consequent delays; (3) the magnitude of claimed amounts; and (4) the level of management and administration of claims and disputes. It is perceived that this paper would trigger professionals to think of other suitable dispute resolution mechanisms, such as dispute review boards, for settlement of claims arising from Egyptian large scale construction projects. Furthermore, this study would be of value for contractors and owners who intend to work in the Egyptian construction market.     

Predicting Performance of Design-Build and Design-Bid-Build Projects

Design-build (DB) and design-bid-build (DBB) are two principal project delivery systems used in many countries. This paper reports on models constructed to predict performance of DB and DBB projects on 11 areas, using project-specific data collected from 87 building projects. The study included collecting, checking, and validating industry data, and the statistical development of multivariate linear regression models for predicting project performance. Robust models are developed to predict construction and delivery speeds of DB and DBB projects. Gross floor area of the project is the most significant factor affecting speed. Besides this, for DBB projects, contractors’ design ability, and adequacy of plant and equipment would ensure speedy completion of the projects. For DB projects, if the contract period is allowed to vary during tender evaluation, this would slow down the project. Robust models to predict turnover and system quality of DB projects are also constructed. A DB contractor’s track record is an important variable. They must have completed past projects to acceptable quality and have ability in financial, health and safety management.