Assessing the risk of climate change for buildings: A comparison between multi-year and probabilistic reference year simulations

Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practicing engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the release of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) [1], and the publication of a methodology for the creation of probabilistic future reference years using the UKCP09 weather generator [2], it is possible to model future building performance. However, the collapse of the distribution of possibilities inherent in the UKCP09 method into a single reference year or a small number of reference years, potentially means the loss of most of the information about the potential range of the response of the building and of the risk occupants might be subject to. In this paper we model for the first time the internal conditions and energy use of a building with all 3000 example years produced by the UKCP09 weather generator in an attempt to study the full range of response and risk. The resultant histograms and cumulative distribution functions are then used to examine whether single reference years can be used to answer questions about response and risk under a changing climate, or whether a more probabilistic approach is unavoidable.     

分质供水在缺水型中小城镇供水系统中的应用

根据水资源特点和饮用水水源布局,对沂水县中心城区供水系统提出分质供水的方案。以优先利用地表水、积极引用客水、合理开采地下水、严格限制自备井为原则,对分质供水水源地进行了规划,并介绍了饮用水水厂和工业水厂的建设规划。分质供水的实施,能够满足中心城区的用水需求,改善供水水质,节约制水能耗,确保供水安全。     

Industry views on water resources planning methods – prospects for change in England and Wales

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk‐based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In‐depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk‐based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods.     

The impact of climate change on reservoir water quality and water treatment plant operations: a UK case study

A simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into ‘real world’ impacts. Its application is demonstrated in this study to assess the impacts of climate change on the reservoir water quality and water treatment plant (WTP) operations at Grafham Water in the east of England. The primary aim is to provide WTP operators with knowledge of the potential impacts and associated probabilities of occurrence of climate change, enabling them to make informed, risk‐based adaptation and planning decisions. Using a series of coupled hydrological and water‐quality models, it is likely that there will be a decline in average reservoir water quality. Climate change will also have an impact on WTP operations, but these will be manageable within the current operational parameters.     

Risk‐based water resources planning in practice: a blueprint for the water industry in England

Resilient water supplies in England need to be secured in the face of challenges of population growth, climate change and environmental sustainability. We propose a blueprint for water resources planning that uses system simulation modelling to estimate the frequency, duration and severity of water shortages at present and in the context of future plans and scenarios. We use multiobjective optimisation tools to explore trade‐offs between these risk metrics and cost of alternative plans, and we use sensitivity analysis to identify plans that robustly achieve targets for tolerable risk, alongside other performance objectives. The results of a case study in the Thames basin demonstrate that the proposed methodology is feasible given commonly available data sets and models. The proposed method provides evidence with which to develop water resource management plans that demonstrably balance the risks of water shortages, costs to water users and environmental constraints in an uncertain future.     

降雨与库水位共同作用下近坝库岸边坡滑坡模型试验研究

根据云南省龙江水电站近坝库岸边坡滑坡特点,为了对降雨与库水位共同作用下近坝库岸边坡滑坡有深入的了解,进行了降雨与库水位共同作用下边坡滑坡大型模型试验研究。试验结果表明:降雨是引起近坝库岸边坡滑坡的重要因素,降雨与库水位共同作用下近坝库岸滑坡有效应力减小,研究库水位以下边坡土体的抗剪强度减小;库水位作用使得边坡产生沉降和裂缝,边坡的滑坡是由降雨和库水位共同作用引起,库水位以下边坡土体水分入渗充分,边坡内部孔隙水压力较大,边坡易产生滑坡且滑坡规模较大,近坝库岸边坡滑坡属于浅层牵引式滑坡。     

Evaluating demand management aspects of urban water policy—A field survey in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece

The objective of the paper is to investigate the attitudes and preferences of the residential water users of the city of Thessaloniki, in order to evaluate the demand management aspects of the urban water policy. A field survey has been conducted in the city of Thessaloniki and investigated among others the reliability of the utility’s services and infrastructure, the acceptability of various water demand options, the willingness to pay of the consumers and the level of public awareness. Straightforward comparisons with the results of a similar survey five years ago help extract useful remarks and conclusions concerning the shift of the urban water policy towards integrated and therefore more sustainable directions.     

论我国城镇水资源可持续发展的强化措施

论述了国内外水资源及其消耗状况.从行政管理、法律、教育、工程等多方面出发,提出了可持续发展的水资源保护战略、小城镇建设中的水资源利用及保护、污水回用与资源化、水循环再生工程等综合防治强化措施,供同行参考.     

Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are studied, all based on output from historical rain series of the present climate and output from Regional Climate Models. Two models are applied, one being based on an extreme value model, the Partial Duration Series Approach, and the other based on a stochastic rainfall generator model. Finally an approach is based on identification of areas, where the present climate resembles the anticipated future climate for the region in question. The results indicate that design intensities in Denmark are likely to be increased by 10–50% within the next 100 years. The increase in design intensities depend on the duration and the return period in question.     

The impact of climate variability on water and energy demand: the case of South African local governments

There is a growing need to understand how climate change impacts not only on people's livelihoods but also on the level and cost of local government infrastructure required to provide basic commodities such as water and energy. In South Africa, few studies have examined the impact of climate change on operations of local governments. This paper examines the impact of rainfall variability on municipalities’ water and energy demand. A non‐linear relationship between water and energy demand and rainfall variability was found. The results suggest that, by influencing the operations and budgets of local governments, climate change is a real threat to local governments. The local governments need to be proactively involved in the efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. This is particularly important in developing countries where the impact of climate change is more severe than in developed countries, yet adaptation and mitigation capabilities in these countries are weak.     

城市供水管网系统分区改造模式的研究

通过分析我国城市供水管网的现状，阐述了管网分区的含义，指出分区供水是提高供水优化调度效率的基础，并介绍了以供水分界线和节点压力为依据的分区方法，以及区域内部、区域间的规划。通过管网分区，各管段的功能明确，易于区域计量及压力控制。整个管网系统便于优化调度，减小管网的漏失，提高经济效益。     

余姚市供水管网漏损形成的原因及对策研究

以余姚市供水管网漏损为例,通过对管网漏损形成原因的分析,从建立免费用水水量统计、加强管网管理、加强计量管理等方面,提出了相应的对策及措施,以确保供水管网漏损率大幅度降低。     

浅论城市供水管网的漏水及防治

针对供水管网严重的漏水现象，从管道、管件的腐蚀情况，用水量的增加、施工对管道的破坏、管线接口质量等方面简要分析了管网的漏水原因，并相应地提出一些检漏及防治管网漏水的措施，同时介绍了几种供水管网的维修、维护方法，以降低管网漏水。     

Demand management aspects of urban water policy in the industrial sector: the case of the city of Thessaloniki,Greece

The present paper presents the main results of a research project. It deals with consumers' perception of water issues in the industrial sector, and examines and analyses water use patterns, water conservation methods and water pricing issues. Issues presented are the contribution of water to production processes, water consumption levels, water conservation options, the possibility of construction of a dual water supply system, the evaluation of different pricing policies, the willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential impact of a price increase. The study has shown that there is limited use of recycling methods, few pollution control practices and small effect of industrial water price on water consumption levels. As far as industrial consumers are concerned, they present inaccurate perception of water consumption levels and low willingness to pay for the improvement of water services.     

医院采用二次供水设施应注意的问题

在分析了医院供水的特殊性和二次供水的利弊基础上,进一步探讨了医院二次供水设施在系统选择、设备选型、运行维护和安全管理等各方面采取的相应措施,保证医院供水对水质、水量、水压上的安全与稳定,从而保证医疗活动的正常进行。     

Implications of land disturbance on drinking water treatability in a changing climate: Demonstrating the need for “source water supply and protection” strategies

Forests form the critical source water areas for downstream drinking water supplies in many parts of the world, including the Rocky Mountain regions of North America. Large scale natural disturbances from wildfire and severe insect infestation are more likely because of warming climate and can significantly impact water quality downstream of forested headwaters regions. To investigate potential implications of changing climate and wildfire on drinking water treatment, the 2003 Lost Creek Wildfire in Alberta, Canada was studied. Four years of comprehensive hydrology and water quality data from seven watersheds were evaluated and synthesized to assess the implications of wildfire and post-fire intervention (salvage-logging) on downstream drinking water treatment. The 95th percentile turbidity and DOC remained low in streams draining unburned watersheds (5.1 NTU, 3.8 mg/L), even during periods of potential treatment challenge (e.g., stormflows, spring freshet); in contrast, they were elevated in streams draining burned (15.3 NTU, 4.6 mg/L) and salvage-logged (18.8 NTU, 9.9 mg/L) watersheds. Persistent increases in these parameters and observed increases in other contaminants such as nutrients, heavy metals, and chlorophyll-a in discharge from burned and salvage-logged watersheds present important economic and operational challenges for water treatment; most notably, a potential increased dependence on solids and DOC removal processes. Many traditional source water protection strategies would fail to adequately identify and evaluate many of the significant wildfire- and post-fire management-associated implications to drinking water “treatability”; accordingly, it is proposed that “source water supply and protection strategies” should be developed to consider a suppliers’ ability to provide adequate quantities of potable water to meet demand by addressing all aspects of drinking water “supply” (i.e., quantity, timing of availability, and quality) and their relationship to “treatability” in response to land disturbance.     

Simulating the effects of climate change,economic and urban planning scenarios on urban runoff patterns of a metropolitan region

Urban development and climate change are expected to have significant effects on urban stormwater runoff. In this study, the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) is applied to Dublin, Ireland, to explore urban runoff patterns under varying urban growth and climate scenarios. Results show that annual urban runoff could decrease by 3.0% from climate change and monthly runoff could increase by 30% in winter and decrease by 28% in summer. Results also indicate that urban growth could increase annual runoff by up to 15%. The combined effect of climatic and land-use change generated runoff may potentially increase annual totals from between 2.9% to 21%. Monthly changes in runoff totals could increase by up to 57%. Accommodating these variations in runoff between the scenarios, flexible decentralised systems such as green roofs and pervious pavements, have a vital role in increasing the adaptability and long term sustainability of water infrastructure.     

消防水泵直接从城市给水管网吸水的消防给水系统设计计算原则探讨

分析了城市供水压力和周期性变化，结合国内外有关规范，提出直接利用城市自来水作为消防水源的有效压力，并给出消防水泵直接从城市给水管网吸水的消防给水系统设计计算原则。     

浅析高层民用建筑消防给水设计

结合《高层民用建筑设计防火规范》及《自动喷水灭火系统设计规范》对高层民用建筑消防给水设计进行了介绍，以促使高层民用建筑消防给水设计更经济、合理，使工程更完善。     

Development of computational algorithms for pump operations and their applications to the system dynamics modelling of a water supply system

In this study, computational algorithms for the simulations of the operations of pumps for water distribution storage tanks were developed. The developed algorithms include pump operating rules for different electricity price schemes and operating situations such as normal and emergency conditions. The algorithms were programmed into System Dynamics modelling modules that can be used as basic building blocks when an SD model is constructed for the simulations of complex real-world water supply systems. Based on the basic SD modelling modules, a dynamic computer simulation model was developed for the simulations of the water supply system in Young-Jong island in South Korea where multiple local water sources are to be utilised. The developed model dynamically simulated the water levels in the water distribution storage tanks and estimated the pumping costs of the system according to the normal and emergency operational scenarios. During the emergency situation it was assumed that the local water sources will not be able to supply the assigned portion of demand. STELLA system dynamics modelling software was used for the modelling.