Turkey's natural gas necessity,consumption and future perspectives

Turkey is an important candidate to be the “energy corridor” in the transmission of the abundant oil and natural gas resources of the Middle East and Middle Asia countries to the Western market. Furthermore, Turkey is planning to increase its oil and gas pipeline infrastructure to accommodate its increased energy consumption. Naturally, Turkish natural gas usage is projected to increase remarkably in coming years, with the prime consumers, expected to be industry and power plants. Energy demand of Turkey is growing by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. In addition, natural gas consumption is the fastest growing primary energy source in Turkey. Gas sales started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters), in 1987 and reached approximately 22 bcm in 2003. This article deals with energy policies and natural gas consumption of Turkey. Besides modernization of present lines and realization of capacity increase, new lines will also be needed. In this context, Turkey, due to its geographical location is, in an important position to vary European supply. Therefore, Turkey's role as a transitory area gains importance.     

Multi-criteria evaluation of natural gas resources

Geologically estimated natural gas resources are 500 Tcm. With the advance in geological science increase of estimated resources is expected. Natural gas reserves in 2000 have been proved to be around 165 Tcm. As it is known the reserves are subject to two constraints, namely: capital invested in the exploration and drilling technologies used to discover new reserves. The natural gas scarcity factor, i.e. ratio between available reserves and natural gas consumption, is around 300 years for the last 50 years. The new discovery of natural gas reserves has given rise to a new energy strategy based on natural gas.     

Natural Gas requirement by fertilizer sector in India

Natural Gas is one of the important fossil fuel energy resources in India. Anchor customers of natural gas are the power sector and nitrogenous fertilizer. It is the cleanest form of energy derived from the fossil fuel basket. Because of clean combustion characteristics, natural gas is the fuel choice for many sections of Indian industry. The demand for natural gas will grow with time. Currently natural gas accounts for 7% of the primary energy consumption of India. The Government of India has its commitment to food security and energy security. The policies are directed toward greater allocation of natural gas on a priority basis to fertilizer and the power sector. Natural gas is the main and preferred feedstock for urea manufacture. This paper analyzes and estimates projected demand of natural gas in the next two decades. The demand projections have been reviewed in the context of changing government policies regarding the fertilizer industry, such as farm gate price regulation and self-sufficiency level of indigenous urea production. The current growth plan of natural gas supply and evolving supply scenario in the future are also considered in the study.     

Natural gas demand in Turkey

On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.     

采用燃气—蒸汽联合循环冷热电三联供能源系统在焦炉煤气制液化天然气工厂的应用研究

日益恶化的全球环境问题,要求中国天然气消费与生产保持高速增长,资源的特征决定了须从多种渠道解决天然气来源问题,焦炉煤气制液化天然气作为煤制天然气的一个路线,也将逐步地成为一个新兴的行业而快速成长与发展,国家已将此技术列入了近年重点示范推广的关键技术。在这个生产过程中冷热电能消耗都比较大,本文研究的是运用燃气轮机,进行燃气—蒸汽联合循环,实现"冷热电"三联供的典型分布式能源系统,使系统的循环效率从22～23%提高到40%以上。     

Wind energy status in renewable electrical energy production in Turkey

Main electrical energy sources of Turkey are thermal and hydraulic. Most of the thermal sources are derived from natural gas. Turkey imports natural gas; therefore, decreasing usage of natural gas is very important for both economical and environmental aspects. Because of disadvantages of fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are getting importance for sustainable energy development and environmental protection. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. The estimated wind power capacity of Turkey is about 83,000 MW while only 10,000 MW of it seems to be economically feasible to use. Start 2009, the total installed wind power capacity of Turkey was only 4.3% of its total economical wind power potential (433 MW). However, the strong development of wind energy in Turkey is expected to continue in the coming years. In this study, Turkey's installed electric power capacity, electric energy production is investigated and also Turkey current wind energy status is examined.     

The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing,Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO₂ emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use.     

Electricity capacity expansion in Thailand: An analysis of gas dependence and fuel import reliance

Electricity generation in Thailand is highly dependant on natural gas. Recent research has revealed that the Thai economy would become more vulnerable from high gas dependence in the power sector. This paper aims to assess the economic impact of gas dependence in power generation in the coming decades. To fulfil this objective, two scenarios of electricity capacity planning were developed and the results were analysed to understand the changes in gas dependence and the effects on import reliance. It is found that from 2011 to 2025, the average cost of natural gas for power generation will account for 2.41% of gross domestic product (GDP) while high oil price in international energy markets would push this cost to 2.97% of GDP. In addition, reliance on fuel imports for power generation, particularly natural gas and coal, is going to be another crucial concern to the security of energy supply as the costs of these imports during the planning horizon will increase significantly at an average rate of 6.78% per year.     

Monthly natural gas demand forecasting by adjusted seasonal grey forecasting model

ABSTRACT

Natural gas stands out among fossil fuels because it is relatively cleaner. It is also an important energy source type for several fields such as electricity production, industry, and heating, etc. Due to the poor capacity of Turkey in terms of natural gas sources, the demand is supplied by producer countries. Hence, accurate forecasting for the demand is of critical importance for Turkey, which imports 99% of its natural gas consumption. In the current literature about demand forecasting, most studies were conducted on an annual basis. However, the seasonal effect on the demand for natural gas cannot be foreseen through annual studies. Besides, to deal with some situations such as seasonal balancing, peak shaving, and gas supply shortage in monthly demand, forecasting models that capture the seasonal trend are needed. Therefore, in this study, a new grey seasonal forecast model has been presented and Turkey’s monthly natural gas demand was predicted via the proposed model. Performance of that model was compared with SGM(1,1) and SARIMA (p,d,q) x (P,D,Q)^s. The obtained results show the superiority of the proposed model. By using this model, Turkey’s monthly natural gas demand was forecasted up until the year 2025. The proposed model allows us to capture seasonal patterns more successfully. In case this seasonal behavior continues, Turkey’s natural gas demand is expected to increase by %20 until 2025. At this point, the outcomes of the study provide important information to decision-makers to be able to determine reliable and stable energy policies.     

Long term forecasting of natural gas production

Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700–18,300 EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250–11,000 EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140–217 EJ/y (133–206 tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates.     

Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption

The use of natural gas in China is still relatively immature, as gas production only supplies a low percentage of the domestic energy system. In contrast, Chinese economy mainly relies on coal with a 67% share of the total primary energy supply. The environmental impact from this high coal dependence is significant and planners have sought for cleaner energy sources. Natural gas is both cleaner and generally more efficient than coal and gas consumption is rising quickly due to these facts.The growth tendency indicates that natural gas will become an important substitution for coal in some parts of the Chinese primary energy consumption. To quantify this tendency, this paper uses a system dynamics model to create a possible outlook. The results show that the gas consumption in China will continue to increase fast to 89.5 billion cubic meters in 2010; 198.2 billion cubic meters in 2020, before finally reach 340.7 billion cubic meters in 2030.Scenario analysis is used to assess the accuracy of the results. Finally, this paper gives policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure constructions and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.     

美国能源结构及消费现状

美国石油储量220亿桶,石油消耗占美国总能耗的40％以上,是全球主要的石油生产国和消费国.美国煤炭可实现自给自足,每年消耗10亿t,90％用于发电.美国天然气储量6.73万亿m3,年消费量660 km3,页岩气产量占天然气产量的25％左右.美国拥有104个核电反应堆,总生产能力为806.2TWh.美国能源总消费量的8％由可再生能源提供,10％的电力由可再生能源提供,累计风力发电装机容量为43461 MW,拥有48 MW世界上最大的光伏发电项目,地热能安装能力2957 MW.     

Electricity restructuring in Turkey and the share of wind energy production

This paper presents the current status of Turkey's electricity power sector, efforts for introducing competition in the Turkey's power industry, and concerns with the restructuring in Turkey. Turkey include long-term high-cost agreements, low quality of power, and therefore restrictions for synchronization with UCTE network, increase in the reliance on imported natural gas, and the urgent need for highly qualified staff that would be capable of fast and reliable implementation of ongoing reforms in the electricity sector. The contribution of the exploiting wind energy potential in Turkey to reconstruction of Turkey electricity structure is investigated. The strong development of wind energy in Turkey is expected to continue in the coming years.     

加速发展天然气产业是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一

加速发展天然气产业应是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一。由非常规天然气带动的天然气"革命"为世界天然气产业发展创造了有利的资源条件,全球天然气过剩,价格下降。目前我国天然气在一次能源结构中所占的比例仍然过低,只达到世界水平的1/4左右,而提升天然气的消费比例与提高综合能效具有正相关关系。综合考虑,"十二五"末我国天然气在一次能源消费中的比例应达到12%～15%,甚至更多一些。21世纪以来我国常规天然气储产量增长迅速,新增探明天然气储量已连续7年保持在5000×108m3以上。预计2020年我国天然气年产量将达到2000×108m3,2030年前后可达到2500×108～3000×108m3,加上从国外进口的天然气(包括沿海进口的LNG)和煤制气的发展,天然气消费总量将达4500×108m3,占国内一次能源消费比重可望有一个大幅度的提升。"十二五"期间我国煤层气开采可望首先获得突破性进展,而页岩气正处于勘探开发起步的关键时期,国家在加强领导的同时要加大扶持力度。天然气储运工程对于天然气产业和市场的发展非常重要,"十二五"期间成立中国天然气管道总公司的条件已经成熟。     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅳ)——天然气能源在中国的应用前景和碳减排分析

中国目前天然气在能源消费结构中的比例不到4%。与欧美发达国家相比,中国在商业和居住方面的年人均天然气消费量要低30多倍;按照EIA的中长期预测,中国天然气仅占家庭用能的21%～28%、商业用能的14%～20%,与发达国家大约相差1倍。中国用于发电的天然气使用量不到2%,由于风电比例的提高,非常有必要争取2050年将天然气调峰发电的比率提高到5%以上。如果2030年中国天然气产量达到3000×108m3并加大从国外的进口量,使消费量达到5000×108m3,天然气在能源消费结构中的比率有可能提高到14%。制约中国天然气消费量提高的因素包括国内天然气产量、国外进口量、基础设施建设和天然气价格等。提出2050年中国实现天然气消费量达到6000×108m3和8000×108m3的两个情景,其基础是确保常规天然气产量为2500×108m3,页岩气产量达到1000×108~1500×108m3,煤层气和煤制替代天然气产量达到1000×108~1500×108m3,进口量为1500×108~2500×108m3,这是一个非常艰巨但却有可能实现的目标。如果2050年中国天然气消费量达到8000×108m3的高消费量情景,按照发改委能源研究所设定的节能情景的能源消费总量测算,天然气在一次能源消费结构中的比例可上升到14%;按低碳情景测算,天然气的比例可上升到18%;按强化低碳情景测算,天然气的比例可上升到20%,达到目前世界的平均水平。两个天然气消费情景的二氧化碳排放量分别为7.4×108t和9.6×108t。从各方面而言,增加天然气消费量都是正效应而非负效应。     

Energy saving potential in the residential sector of Uzbekistan

In 2003, the residential sector of Uzbekistan has consumed about 15.073 Mtoe (million ton of oil equivalent) of energy or 27.3% of the total energy consumed in the country. This value is approximately twice as much as that of residential sector of Turkey and Romania. The climate of above countries is comparable to that of Uzbekistan. In this article we suggest to use the heating degree-day method for determining the natural gas consumption norms for residential heating. Taking the climatic differences into account, the norms of natural gas consumption in respect to each resident are submitted for each region of Uzbekistan. The realization of suggested proposals allows saving about 9.2 billion m³ of natural gas annually.     

Towards a liberalized Turkish natural gas market: a SWOT analysis

Turkey is currently in the process of restructuring and liberalization of its natural gas market. However, Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation’s (BOTAS) monopoly of more than 80% of natural gas imports, and ranging subsidized gas prices from the beginning, mainly for power generators but also for households and the industry, are among the factors preventing the formation of a fully competitive and liberal market. Hence, the primary aim of this study is to gain insight into the private sector view of the restructuring process, through a qualitative inquiry, including an industry-wide survey and a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis. This study reveals the various internal (Strengths and Weaknesses) and external (Opportunities and Threats) factors, the degree of importance of each factor for the future of the industry, and the level of consistency between these aforementioned assessments. Based on the consensus reached among the Turkish Natural Gas industry representatives, policy recommendations are provided. Results suggest that market liberalization and increase in private sector involvement are the two strengths agreed upon. Likewise, competitive structuring is evaluated as a critical factor for transparency and efficiency, rather than being simply infrastructure-based development. In addition, the participants concur on the importance of increasing share of LNG in the total natural gas supply.     

我国天然气资源利用的主要途径

随着西气东输这一西部大开发标志性工程的启动，我国天然气利用的一个新时代正在到来。天然气是优质的有机化工原料，在化肥等化工生产中使用天然气做原料，可以大幅度降低原料成本，提高化工产品的市场竞争力。同时，天然气又是一种多用途的优质能源，通过在发电、交通燃料、城市民用燃料等方面增加天然气消费比例，优化能源结构。特别是天然气作为一种清洁燃料，对改善城市大气环境有重要的作用。天然气的各种用途之间需要综合规划，做到资源最佳配置，使这种优质资源得到高效利用。     

China’s natural gas reform: why and how

Natural gas is playing an extremely significant role in implementing green and low-carbon economy in China, while its share in energy mix only accounted for 6.4% of China’s total energy consumption in 2016. The Chinese government began to make a series of policies and measures to catalyze natural gas production and consumption for dealing with severe air pollution and optimizing energy structure. Some key issues such as highly regulated natural gas pricing system, the monopoly of natural gas pipelines, and the dominance of state-owned oil companies are substantially existing to be addressed in the forthcoming natural gas reforms. The dilemma of reforms is analyzed in this article and the related reform solutions are to be explored in the deregulation of Chinese natural gas pricing mechanism, separation of state-owned companies’ pipeline, and nondiscriminatory third-party access. The results show that Chinese natural gas reform is destined to be a long-lasting war.