考虑停电损失的配电网网架规划的免疫算法

基于人工免疫算法借鉴生物免疫系统中抗体多样性的保持机制和基于抗体浓度的调节机制,同时又具有一般进化算法的随机全局搜索能力,适合求解多目标问题的特点,综合考虑配电网供电可靠性对用户侧的经济影响,提出了应用免疫算法求解考虑用户侧停电损失的配电网网架规划问题的优化方法。针对配电网辐射性的要求,根据图论知识,采用将新增加负荷节点作为染色体基因座的编码方法,保证了生成解的可行性,避免了辐射性检查,提高了计算速度。最后通过实际算例说明了这种方法的有效性。     

Implications of a regional resource adequacy program for utility integrated resource planning

Resource adequacy (RA) is the ability of an electricity system to reliably satisfy loads using its available resources. Assessing and maintaining RA is becoming more challenging due to increasing coal plant retirements, penetration of wind and solar resources, reliance on bilateral and market transactions, and emerging technologies. RA evaluation and planning have traditionally been conducted by utilities and overseen by their state regulators using integrated resource planning (IRP) processes. However, the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) is developing a proposal for a regional RA program in the Western U.S. that would set and enforce capacity obligations for member utilities, and achieve RA more cost-effectively by pooling resources and load profiles from across the region. In this paper, we investigate the policy implications of a regional RA program for existing IRP regulations, with the proposed NWPP RA program as our main object of study. We compile the RA assessment practices of Western U.S. utilities, the proposed NWPP RA program design, and lessons from the historical experience of the Southwest Power Pool’s RA program. Our analysis reveals that the IRP components which would be most heavily impacted by the regional program are RA targets, load forecasts, capacity accreditation factors, and transmission upgrades. We conclude by discussing the policy issues that RA program design and state IRP policy would have to address.     

Key issues in integrated resource planning for electric utilities

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a means for utilities and state regulatory commissions to consistently assess a variety of demand and supply resources to cost-effectively meet customer energy-service needs. The authors review recent progress in IRP and identify the need for additional work by utilities, regulatory commissions, and other organizations. They point out that IRP as a planning and regulatory process can also greatly reduce the uncertainties and risks faced by utilities and state public utility commissions. Such benefits occur because of the diversity of resources considered, public involvement in the planning process, and cooperation among interested parties     

输电网的规划综合成本法及其应用研究

针对电网发展日益受到土地、环境及风险评估等内外部条件约束的现状,提出一种输电网规划与项目决策的新方法.该方法基于全寿命周期管理的理念,以全社会成本为尺度,对输电网扩展方案的技术性和经济性进行综合评判,通过引入土地机会成本和风险评估方法实现了对电网征地和电网风险等关键因素的量化评估.与传统输电网的规划设计方法进行比对分析表明,该方法能够更加准确地计及输电网规划方案的长期性和全面性,为输电网规划设计技术经济比选方法的改进提供了参考依据.     

考虑综合能源站柔性调控作用的城市配电网多阶段规划方法

随着城市经济发展与终端用能电气化的普及,以制冷用电为首的电负荷需求持续增加且峰谷差情况愈发严重化,导致现有配电网运行负担逐渐加重。在此背景下,将综合能源站(IES)作为多能流耦合节点,在配电网中引入多能协调互补及蓄能移峰功能,计及多个阶段负荷发展及多类型负荷特征,提出在IES柔性调控作用下的配电网多阶段规划方法。基于IES能流结构及其运行机制,分别在不同气候类型地区负荷模拟场景下,以总规划期内投资与运行经济性最优为目标,建立由线路、变电站和IES构成决策对象的配电网双层多阶段规划模型,规划与运行层模型通过决策变量关联达成一体化协同求解。通过修改后的IEEE 33节点配电系统对所提方法的有效性进行校验,并进一步将所提方法应用于某地实际152节点配电系统,分析不同负荷特征下配电网规划运行效益、负荷峰谷差调节效果及IES运行状况,得出计及IES的城市配电网规划方法的实用性结论。     

A generation expansion model for electric utilities with stochastic stranded cost

We design and analyze a generation expansion planning model considering the stochastic nature of stranded cost. The stranded cost is the investment balance outstanding when a generation unit is forced to shut down because it is not economically competitive. This is an important issue nowadays due to the on-going transition of the electric power industry from regulated monopolies toward competition with substantial financial uncertainties. In this paper, specifically, we mathematically formulate a generation expansion planning model with stochastic stranded cost based on the mean–variance method. Next, based on experts' estimation of elementary relations among projects over periods, we derive mathematical formulae for covariances among projects and periods. This is shown to enhance the implementability of the generation expansion planning model. Also, managerial insights are provided (e.g. a set of negatively correlated projects will reduce the financial risk associated with stranded cost). Finally, by way of a numerical example, the features of our model are illustrated.     

计及不确定性的区域综合能源系统双层优化配置规划模型

针对综合能源系统规划运行时缺乏对负荷、可再生能源预测误差和购能价格波动不确定性的考虑,构建了基于粒子群优化-区间线性规划的双层优化模型,用于求解计及不确定性的综合能源系统规划问题。为了说明所提优化配置模型能够显著提高系统运行的灵活性,给出了评价系统参与需求响应项目的潜力指标,量化分析了系统在响应电网削负荷指标和应对购能价格变化方面的优势。算例结果不仅验证了所提模型的有效性和可行性,还表明了在能源互联替代的背景下,天然气价格和电负荷的波动直接影响能源服务公司的收益区间,可通过所提模型优化配置各类储能设备以提高能源利用率、抑制系统运营收益的波动。     

A flexible decision method for transmission system expansion planning considering power interruption cost

Under the current deregulation of the electric utility industry, power system planning has become more complex. System planners are required to study how to use available resources to meet customer's demand economically with acceptable reliability and quality. Integrated resource planning has emerged recently as one effective approach for this problem, and the approach has been expanded to include the value of reliability, that is, power interruption cost. This paper is aimed at developing a flexible decision method to select a favorable plan among various transmission system expansion alternatives, not only from a power supplier's viewpoint, but also from the customer's perspective, including cost of interruption. Bellman-Zadeh's maximizing decision using a fuzzy decision set is applied as a flexible decision method which is able to reflect the planner's intentions. Numerical examples are given to ascertain the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

基于可靠性成本- 效益分析的电网规划

传统电网规划是以电网的直接投资费用最小为目标来满足一定可靠度的电网规划。电网规划的目的是保证电网的供电可靠性,而没有考虑由于电网的扩展所产生的经济效益,这样规划出的电网并不能获得最佳的社会效益。该文通过引入缺电成本,将可靠性与经济性结合在一起,在此基础上提出了一种新的电网规划成本-效益分析方法与数学模型,该方法将缺电成本作为供电总成本的重要组成部分,并且用缺电成本的大小来衡量可靠性效益的高低,将规划的可靠性成本与可靠性效益统一在对电网的经济性评估上。对规划方案进行了分析和评价,进一步完善了成本-效益分析方     

建立发电系统停运容量模型的实用算法

分析了现有建立发电系统停运容量模型的方法存在着计算繁琐的问题。提出了发电系统停运容量预备表的概念,并据此给出了先形成发电系统停运容量预备表,再建立发电系统停运容量模型的实用算法。所提算法着力于减少发电系统停运容量表形成过程中的状态数及计算工作量,提高计算效率。数值算例表明,该文提出的算法是正确的,具有快速方便的特点。     

基于区间理论的油田综合能源系统优化规划

针对油田的能源结构和用能负荷的特征,构建了油田综合能源系统架构;考虑可再生能源出力的不确定性和油田多元负荷用能的随机性,建立了光伏、光热出力的区间模型,热负荷区间模型和基于价格型响应的电负荷区间模型;通过分析设备投资成本的时间价值和区域碳中和途径,建立一种计及源荷不确定性的综合能源系统规划模型,并结合仿射算法和区间序关系,将不确定性优化问题转化为确定性的多目标优化问题进行求解。算例分析表明,油田综合能源系统架构符合油田能源禀赋和负荷实际耦合情况,设备配置方案投资回收年限短,不确定性权重系数越高,投资越大,年净收益区间越大,结果验证了规划方法的有效性。与传统鲁棒凸规划优化方法相比,所提方法为决策者提供了满足区间约束的解集,避免了规划方案的保守性。     

当前电力体制下考虑需求侧管理的电网规划新思路

电力需求侧管理(DSM)因其能有效调控负荷已成为电力公司的一种常态化工作,这就需要在电网规划中考虑DSM的影响。在电网规划中考虑DSM的影响不仅有利于发挥DSM的作用而且能提高电网规划的经济性。在对传统电网规划和综合资源优化规划分析的基础上提出几点考虑DSM的电网规划新思路,算例验证了提出模型的有效性。     

低碳经济下能源综合规划的生态功能单元方法

基于生态学与技术经济学两个学科的交叉,提出了低碳经济下能源综合规划的生态功能单元方法。通过对自然界的能量循环过程和电力系统中的能量循环过程进行对比分析,并借鉴自然界在能量流动、物质循环和信息传递等生态功能单元机理,从而实现能源规划中的发展目标,即低碳、减排、节能、经济与稳定。生态功能单元规划方法所提供的是一种系统的、动态的、进化的思考方式,将使有限的电力建设资金更多地投向绿色能源开发方面,符合"十二五"电力规划中"智能电网"的理念。     

发达国家综合资源规划工作的经验与启示

对美国太平洋电力公司、美国加州电力系统、加拿大诺瓦斯克提亚电力公司、欧洲各同的电力行业实施综合资源规划的现状进行研究,分析其在规划任务和目标、规划方法、组织结构、实施方案、政策法规等方面的成功经验,并结合当前我国电力规划存在的问题,从规划方式、工作模式、配套措施3个角度,提出对我国开展综合资源规划工作可以借鉴的模式.     

基于停电损失计算与成本分析的配电网单元制供电网格可靠性规划

提出一种基于停电损失计算与成本分析的配电网单元制供电网格可靠性规划方法。首先对单元制网格分类,并建立起停电损失、投资成本与可靠性指标间的数学关系。其次基于帕累托优化方法,量化计算并得到单元制网格满足一定的可靠性目标前提下的投资成本、停电损失,作为网格规划的重要参考。最后结合算例分析验证了方法的有效性。     

A time-varying transformer outage model for on-line operational risk assessment

The failure probabilities of system components may vary with changes in the operating conditions. Performing a probabilistic risk assessment in real-time is challenging, since component failure probabilities are difficult to predict. Accordingly, this paper introduces a delayed semi-Markov process that incorporates real-time data from advanced sensors, as a means of efficiently calculating time-varying or condition-based failure probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the procedure, a time-varying transformer outage model with numerical examples is presented. In the proposed technique, an analytic random model is developed to accommodate the impact of real-time dissolved gas analysis data, as well as other conditions pertaining to the failure probabilities of system components.     

基于多能互补的综合能源系统多场景规划案例分析

综合能源系统存在冷热电气多种能源形式、多方利益主体、差异化用能需求等特点,如何统筹协调多种能源互补特性,通过源-网-荷-储等各环节灵活配置,实现可再生能源就地消纳,提升系统综合能效,是综合能源规划所面临的关键问题。结合北方某园区综合能源系统规划实例,对多场景规划理念进行了探讨,分别对能源需求预测分析、综合能源站子系统规划场景设计、建设时序及多能互补协同效益等规划环节进行了深入的分析,可为相关区域综合能源系统规划项目提供参考。     

All-source bidding: Extending integrated competition to utility resource procurement

When facing a resource need, utilities should use all-source bidding to help identify the highest value resources to procure. By soliciting proposals from suppliers across all resource options, the utility applies to procurement the same important principles that guide integrated resource planning. All-source bidding is not new, but many utilities have not used it. This article explains how all-source bidding works, describes the benefits, and offers practical recommendations for utilities and utility regulators.     

考虑需求侧响应的新能源接入下的配电网无功规划研究

随着风力发电、太阳能发电等可再生新能源的逐渐成熟和电力市场的逐步推进和发展,配电网不仅与负荷和新能源出力的波动高度相关,而且需要考虑未来电力市场对新能源接入下的配电网影响。电力市场改革背景下,用户的电力需求侧响应得到了越来越多的关注,负荷可切除或中断将对配电网的规划带来积极的影响。为此,文中提出了一种考虑需求侧响应的配电网无功规划方法,该方法考虑了新能源接入后出力波动和电力市场背景下可中断负荷的影响,建立了需求侧响应的弹性需求模型,并在无功规划模型中考虑了需求侧响应的影响。算例分析表明,所提出的考虑需求侧响应的含新能源接入的配电网无功规划方法在电力市场应用中具有一定的可行性,较传统无功规划方法具有更好的经济性和实用性。     

计及不确定性的综合能源系统容量规划方法

计及分布式可再生能源不确定性因素的综合能源系统(Integrated Energy System,IES)规划更加接近实际情况,也是实现多能协调和IES优化运行的基础.考虑光伏发电出力的间歇性和波动性,提出了一种计及不确定性的含冷、热、电、气多能流的综合能源系统容量规划模型及其求解方法.首先,为了精确地模拟光伏发电的不...