Application of surrogate artificial intelligent models for real‐time flood routing

Developing a robust flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS) is essential in flood‐prone areas. Hydrodynamic models, which are a major part of such systems, usually suffer from computational instabilities and long runtime problems, which are particularly important in real‐time applications. In this study, two artificial intelligence models, namely artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), were used for flood routing in an FFWS in Madarsoo river basin, Iran. For this purpose, different rainfall patterns were transformed to run‐off hydrographs using the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)‐1 hydrological model and routed along the river using HEC river analysis system RAS hydrodynamic model. Then, the simulated hydrographs with different lag times were used as inputs for training of ANN and ANFIS models to simulate flood hydrograph at the basin outlet. Results showed that the simulations obtained from ANN and ANFIS coincided with the results simulated by the HEC‐RAS, and application of such models is strongly suggested as a backup tool for flood routing in FFWSs.     

Impact of climate change on meteorological,hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin,Vietnam

The objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well‐calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016–2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models; HadGEM3‐RA, SNU‐MM5, RegCM4 and YSU‐RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2‐AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts; however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin.     

Spatio‐temporal characterization of Korean drought using severity–area–duration curve analysis

In this study, the depth–area–duration (DAD) analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. Monthly precipitation is probabilistically transformed into standardized precipitation index (SPI) and SPI time series are decomposed into a mutually independent data set by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. All EOFs are spatially expanded to a 6 × 6 km resolution by kriging, for which a commercial package, SuRFER^?, is used. Twenty main drought events from the grid‐based SPI time series are identified to construct the drought severity–effective area–drought duration (SAD) curves. The shape of SAD curves is similar to that of the rainfall DAD curves in the sense that drought severity and effective area are out of phase and that drought severity and duration are also out of phase. However, the severity reduction rate in SAD curves is much smaller than the corresponding rate in DAD analysis.     

Analysis of catchment evapotranspiration at different scales using bottom-up and top-down approaches

Physically-based hydrological models are used to predict catchment water balance through detailed simulation of hydrological processes at small temporal and spatial scales. However, annual catchment water balance can also be easily and simply predicted using lumped conceptual model. Comparison between physically-based hydrological models and lumped conceptual models can help us understand the dominant factors on catchment water balance at different scales. In this paper, a distributed physically-based hydrological model (i.e., bottom-up approach) and a simple water-energy balance model (i.e., top-down approach) are used to predict actual evapotranspiration in nine sub-catchments, and the whole basin of the Luan River in northern China. Both simulations give very close values of annual evapotranspiration and show the same complementary relationship between actual and potential evapotranspiration at annual time scale. From the analysis at different time scales through comparison of the top-down and the bottom-up methods, it is shown that the annual catchment evapotranspiration is controlled mainly by annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and the variability of soil water and vegetation becomes more important at a smaller time scale in the study areas. It is also known that the relationship between potential and actual evapotranspiration shows a highly nonlinear relationship at the annual and catchment scale but can be simplified to a linear relationship at hourly temporal and hillslope scales, which is commonly used in the physically-based hydrological models.     

Developing a new method for spatial assessment of drought vulnerability (case study: Zayandeh‐Rood river basin in Iran)

The paper presents an approach to spatially representative depiction for assessing the vulnerability of central Iran's Zayandeh‐Rood river basin to drought using multiple indicators. Drought conditions prevailed in the study basin from 2002 to 2007, with an annual rainfall deficiency of 45 to 55%. Multi‐attribute decision making (MADM) methods develop a framework to evaluate the relative priorities of drought assessment based on a set of preferences, criteria and indicators. The proposed MADM process uses well‐known techniques for product weights analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and order preference (TOPSIS). These indicators include the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), water demand, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Groundwater Balance and Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI). Indicators' spatial information was categorised in layers prepared in the spatial domain using a geographic information system (GIS). The alternatives were ranked and presented using TOPSIS. Results show that the proposed method was highly effective in representing assessments of drought vulnerability.     

Analysis of catchment evapotranspiration at different scales using bottom-up and top-down approaches

Physically-based hydrological models are used to predict catchment water balance through detailed simulation of hydrological processes at small temporal and spatial scales. However, annual catchment water balance can also be easily and simply predicted using lumped conceptual model. Comparison between physically-based hydrological models and lumped conceptual models can help us understand the dominant factors on catchment water balance at different scales. In this paper, a distributed physically-based hydrological model (i.e., bottom-up approach) and a simple water-energy balance model (i.e., top-down approach) are used to predict actual evapotranspiration in nine sub-catchments, and the whole basin of the Luan River in northern China. Both simulations give very close values of annual evapotranspiration and show the same complementary relationship between actual and potential evapotranspiration at annual time scale. From the analysis at different time scales through comparison of the top-down and the bottom-up methods, it is shown that the annual catchment evapotranspiration is controlled mainly by annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and the variability of soil water and vegetation becomes more important at a smaller time scale in the study areas. It is also known that the relationship between potential and actual evapotranspiration shows a highly nonlinear relationship at the annual and catchment scale but can be simplified to a linear relationship at hourly temporal and hillslope scales, which is commonly used in the physically-based hydrological models.     

GIS的嘉陵江流域吸附态氮磷污染负荷研究

以美国通用土壤流失方程为基础,根据研究流域的特征和已有的研究成果确定方程中的因子算式,在地理信息系统GIS支持下,估算了各单元的土壤流失量,应用吸附态非点源污染负荷模型,对嘉陵江流域吸附态氮磷污染负荷进行了数值模拟与定量分析。结果表明:嘉陵江流域近年平均输沙模数为161.94 t/(km2.a),北碚出口吸附态氮磷污染负荷分别为29620.8 t/a和1391.96 t/a,吸附态氮磷流失较严重的地区主要分布在白龙江和西汉水流域,各土地利用类型吸附态氮磷流失模数大小顺序依次为:荒地>灌木>草地>农田>城镇>林地。     

Hydrological performance of green roofs in the context of the meteorological factors during the 5‐year monitoring period

Green roofs as solutions that can offer varying levels of stormwater management are the topic of current interest. In order to use this form of reconstructing retention capacity, it is important to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on the functioning of living roofs. The study presents the results of research, using of the ANOVA variance analysis method, on retention performance (i.e. volumetric control) and detention (temporal delay run‐off) carried out in the years 2009–2014. The results indicate that the green roof can effectively retain rainfall and delay the initiation of run‐off from the rainfall events included in the analysis. Understanding the hydrological performance of green roofs in different local meteorological conditions is key to the successful implementation and development of sustainable practices to control run‐off in urban areas.     

Optimal location of basin‐wide constructed washlands to reduce risk of flooding

A washland can effectively reduce peak flow of a high flow event at a certain location. A number of washlands located in a basin influence each other's hydrological function, and hence, their hydrological role should be evaluated from a river network perspective. Here, we present an approach to determine optimal locations of constructed washlands in a basin, considering their mutual effect. The problem is formulated as a multiobjective problem with maximizing peak flow reduction effect as one objective and minimizing the total volume of washlands, which is associated with cost, as another. By simplifying modelling algorithm for hydrological routing, we show that consideration of all possible cases is feasible for the situation of a typical basin. This approach guarantees global optimum and shows a full spectrum of Pareto front, which will help decision‐makers in problems of multiple objective functions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the Anseong River basin.     

山西省桃河阳泉站洪峰流量分析

对山西省阳泉市主要河流桃河的流域情况、暴雨洪水特征进行了简要阐述,并且结合历史调查洪水情况对桃河上的主要水文站阳泉站的洪峰流量系列进行了分析,分析结果表明桃河流域河道的防洪情况不容乐观。     

Uncertainty assessment of streamflow projection under the impact of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin,Vietnam

Uncertainty assessment of future projection of streamflow is of the essence for an effective formulation of water resources management and planning adaptive to climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the uncertainty in streamflow projection under the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin. Uncertainty associated with emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), General Circulation Models (GCMs) (CanESM2, CNMR‐CM5 and HadGEM2‐AO), statistical downscaling methods (delta change method, quantile mapping and SDSM), and hydrological models (ANN, HEC‐HMS and SWAT) is examined. The results showed the largest uncertainty source of the streamflow projection is the GCM simulations, followed by the statistical downscaling methods, hydrological models and emission scenarios. In addition, the use of hydrological models has a considerable impact on uncertainty in the simulations of dry seasonal streamflow. Generally, the present study highlighted the importance of using multi‐GCMs in the studies on hydrological impact of climate change.     

Drought-Intensity Duration and Frequency Analysis: A Case Study of Western Uganda

This paper describes (a) drought occurrences in two selected climatic zones of western Uganda and (b) examines the meteorological aspects of drought where rainfall is the main parameter of interest. Rainfall data from various stations in each climatic zone were checked for consistency using the double mass curve technique, and one representative station from each climatic zone was selected. Two probability distributions: normal and log-normal were fitted to the data, and the log-normal distribution provided a better fit in each case. Drought volumes, return periods, intensities, and severity indexes were determined for each climatic zone. The annual potential evapotranspiration was also calculated and plotted against the rainfall to give the soil-moisture deficit. From the results of the analysis it was observed that droughts of a higher severity occurred in Kasese compared with Mbarara.     

Reconstruction of water balance components using tree‐ring proxy records

Long‐term hydrological data are important elements in water resource planning and management. The hydrometric data record period in Iran varies from a few years to about 60 years; generally inadequate for long‐term planning. Reconstruction of meteorological data using tree‐ring proxy records is a viable technique in extending meteorological data in the past (i.e. backcasting). This study reconstructed the precipitation and temperature data based on the tree‐ring proxy records over the 1710–2000 period in Kermanshah Province, Iran. Furthermore, using WASMOD water balance model, streamflow and other hydrological water balance components were reconstructed. In the study basin, the average monthly streamflows were determined as 6.25, 5.56 and 5.50 mm for the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries, respectively. While the eighteenth century was the wettest, in nineteenth and twentieth centuries the streamflow reduced by an average of 14% compared to that of the eighteenth century.     

Construction and commissioning of the 'Muela Hydropower Project

The Lesotho Highlands Water Project involves impounding the surplus water from the rivers in the Highlands for transfer through the Maluti mountains and across the border to South Africa, where it will supplement the overtaxed water resources of the Vaal River basin. The first phase of the project just before the completion of Phase 1A includes the construction of Katse Dam, 82 km of tunnels through the mountains, a 72-MW hydropower station and regulation dam at 'Muela, and all associated infrastructure. This paper discusses the contracts for the electromechanical equipment for the 'Muela Hydropower Project portion of the LHWP.     

Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin

The Mike 11-TRANS modelling system was applied to the lowland Gjern river basin in Denmark to assess climate-change impacts on hydrology and nitrogen retention processes in watercourses, lakes and riparian wetlands. Nutrient losses from land to surface waters were assessed using statistical models incorporating the effect of changed hydrology. Climate-change was predicted by the ECHAM4/OPYC General Circulation Model (IPCC A2 scenario) dynamically downscaled by the Danish HIRHAM regional climate model (25 km grid) for two time slices: 1961-1990 (control) and 2071-2100 (scenario). HIRHAM predicts an increase in mean annual precipitation of 47 mm (5%) and an increase in mean annual air temperature of 3.2 degrees C (43%). The HIRHAM predictions were used as external forcings to the rainfall-runoff model NAM, which was set up and run for 6 subcatchments within and for the entire, Gjern river basin. Mean annual runoff from the river basin increases 27 mm (7.5%, p<0.05) when comparing the scenario to the control. Larger changes, however, were found regarding the extremes; runoff during the wettest year in the 30-year period increased by 58 mm (12.3%). The seasonal pattern is expected to change with significantly higher runoff during winter. Summer runoff is expected to increase in predominantly groundwater fed streams and decrease in streams with a low base-flow index. The modelled change in the seasonal hydrological pattern is most pronounced in first- or second-order streams draining loamy catchments, which currently have a low base-flow during the summer period. Reductions of 40-70% in summer runoff are predicted for this stream type. A statistical nutrient loss model was developed for simulating the impact of changed hydrology on diffuse nutrient losses (i.e. losses from land to surface waters) and applied to the river basin. The simulated mean annual changes in TN loads in a loamy and a sandy subcatchment were, respectively, +2.3 kg N ha(-1) (8.5%) and +1.6 kg N ha(-1) (6.9%). The rainfall-runoff model and the nutrient loss model were chained with Mike 11-TRANS to simulate the combined effects of climate-change on hydrology, nutrient losses and nitrogen retention processes at the scale of the river basin. The mean annual TN export from the river basin increased from the control to the scenario period by 7.7%. Even though an increase in nitrogen retention in the river system of 4.2% was simulated in the scenario period, an increased in-stream TN export resulted because of the simulated increase in the diffuse TN transfer from the land to the surface-waters.     

黑河流域地下水流数值模拟的研究进展

地下水在黑河流域水文过程和水资源转化中发挥着重要的作用。近20年来,研究者们专门针对黑河流域提出了一批地下水的数值模拟模型。这些模型在结构上可分为单层平面模型、双层准三维模型和多层三维模型。对包气带、河流与泉、开采井、季节性冻融等关键因素,现有模型采取了相似或不同的刻画方法,取得了一定的进展。未来的黑河流域地下水模型应加强与地表水、土壤水、水利工程等关联模型的耦合。     

禹门口一级泵站站址方案比较及工程地质评价

结合禹门口一级泵站所在地水文地质条件，对两种站址方案进行了比较分析，经过计算，指出两方案位置相邻，地质条件相同，基坑涌水量相近，但方案一施工条件优于方案二，从而确定方案一为推荐站址方案。     

Structural and functional changes of aquatic heterotrophic bacteria to thermal, heavy, and fly ash effluents

Heterotrophic bacterial populations were sampled at 9 sites around a fossil fuel power plant to assess the ecological impact of the resulting effluents on naturally occurring heterotrophic microbes. The total colony forming units (CFU) remained relatively high at all stations, ranging from 13,804 CFU ml⁻¹ in the heavy ash basin to 2630 CFU ml⁻¹ in an uninfluenced station, Adair Run—upstream. The percent of the total colony counts which were chromagenic was correlated with physico/chemical stresses and varied from a high of 59.0% at the reference New River station to 13.2% in the heavy ash basin. A Sequential Comparison procedure (SCI) produced diversity indices which ranged from 8.21 in upstream New River to 6.23 in the ash-influenced Adair Run station. Assimilation of [³H]glucose was used to assess the functional status of the organisms and was reduced 86.0% in the heavy ash basin and 65.5% in the fly ash basin. The structure and function of bacterial communities in the ash basins were significantly different from the same parameters of populations inhabiting reference environments; however, the basin effluents had a lesser effect on New River bacteria.     

SENEQUE: a multi-scaling GIS interface to the Riverstrahler model of the biogeochemical functioning of river systems

The Riverstrahler model describes the biogeochemical functioning of an entire river system, from 100 to 100,000 km(2) or more, taking into account the constraints set by the morphology of the drainage network, the meteorological/hydrological conditions, and the inputs of material from point and non-point sources in the watershed. This tool has been applied for research purpose to several river systems differing in terms of hydrological regime and anthropogenic influences. In order to improve its capabilities and its generic dimension, as well as to develop a user-friendly interface allowing its transfer to non-specialist users including managers, the model has been coupled to a GIS interface. This gives the user the possibility to visualize the available geospatial database, to select the best geographical representation of the drainage network, to automatically prepare the corresponding input files required for the model, to pilot the model calculation and to visualize the results. The coupling with a GIS interface has considerably improved the capabilities of the Riverstrahler model. The code of the model is now entirely generic and can be run on any river system for which a suitable database is available. Its spatial resolution can be adapted to the requirement of the relevant problem, from the highest level, where each elementary watershed is individualized, to the lower level, where the whole basin is idealized as one basin with tributaries of each order having the same characteristics. As an illustration of the new potentialities offered by the coupling of Riverstrahler with a GIS through the SENEQUE interface, the results of a same modeling scenario are compared at different spatial resolutions. For the first time, with on-line coupling to a geodatabase, the effect of increasing the spatial resolution of the drainage network representation on the performance of the Riverstrahler model has been examined. At the outlet of the basin, the water quality results were found invariant to a large degree, whatever the details of its representation in the calculations. This result justifies the use of a low resolution representation of the upstream watershed when results are required only at the outlet of the basin.