Hydrocarbon plant—New source of energy for future

The development of alternative sources for energy and chemicals, particularly the use of plant biomass as a renewable source for fuel or chemical feedstocks, has received much recent attention. This paper attempts to review the work carried out by many workers on evaluation of some plant materials as source of energy and chemical feedstocks and the possibilities of producing hydrocarbon and related chemical products, directly or indirectly. Also an exploratory work carried out at Regional Research Laboratory, Jorhat is discussed. Some future directions, which need to be considered to promote development of these petrocrops, are suggested.     

What is the future of solar energy? Economic and policy barriers

The most important characteristics and limitations of solar energy were reviewed in this study. The analysis of different aspects indicated that the most important global challenges of solar energy development were climatic challenges, technical constraints, and unwillingness to make investments. After describing current conditions and predicting the future of solar energy, this study analyzed the policies formulated by developed countries to develop this from of energy. Accordingly, China has gotten ahead of other countries in this industry due to the technological production of solar panels and governmental supports. Finally, the economic estimation of solar energy was presented by dealing with the economic barriers to this form of energy in developed countries. According to the significant growth in the reduction of solar energy electricity production cost, this source of energy can be used as a major source in the future. It was then recommended to use a hybrid of solar energy with other sources such as wind to reduce the costs.     

Can the future EU ETS support wind energy investments?

This article discusses how the future Emissions Trading Scheme legislation should be designed to allow the European Union to comply with the 20% CO₂ emissions reduction target, while at the same time promoting wind energy investments. We examine whether CO₂ prices could eventually replace the existing support schemes for wind and if they adequately capture its benefits. The analysis also looks at the effectiveness of the clean development and joint implementation mechanisms to trigger wind projects and technology transfer in developing countries. We find out that climate policy is unlikely to provide sufficient incentives to promote wind power, and that other policies should be used to internalise the societal benefits that accrue from deploying this technology: CO₂ prices can only reflect the beneficial impact of wind on climate change but not its contribution to the security of supply or employment creation. A minimum price of around €40/tCO₂ should be attained to maintain present support levels for wind and this excludes income risks and intermediation costs. Finally, CDM improves the return rate of wind energy projects in third countries, but it is the local institutional framework and the long-term stability of the CO₂ markets that matters the most.     

National energy policies: Obstructing the reduction of global CO2 emissions? An analysis of Swedish energy policies for the district heating sector

The effect of national energy policies on a local Swedish district heating (DH) system has been studied, regarding the profitability of new investments and the potential for climate change mitigation. The DH system has been optimised regarding three investments: biomass-fuelled CHP (bio CHP), natural gas-fuelled combined cycle CHP (NGCC CHP) and biomass-fuelled heat-only boiler (bio HOB) in two scenarios (with or without national taxes and policy instruments). In both scenarios EU’s tradable CO₂ emission permits are included. Results from the study show that when national policies are included, the most cost-effective investment option is the bio CHP technology. However, when national taxes and policy instruments are excluded, the DH system containing the NGCC CHP plant has 30% lower system cost than the bio CHP system. Regardless of the scenario and when coal condensing is considered as marginal electricity production, the NGCC CHP has the largest global CO₂ reduction potential, about 300 ktonne CO₂. However, the CO₂ reduction potential is highly dependent on the marginal electricity production. Demonstrated here is that national policies such as tradable green certificates can, when applied to DH systems, contribute to investments that will not fully utilise the DH systems’ potential for global CO₂ emissions reductions.     

Waste to energy – An evaluation of the environmental impact

The thermal treatment of waste with the heat recovery (Waste to Energy – WTE) provides us with clean and reliable energy in the form of heat as well as power. This has contributed to primary energy savings in conventional utility systems. Impact of WTE regarding the environmental issue is quantified in this paper. The evaluation focuses on the calculation of primary energy savings. A novel methodology is proposed. Then an assessment of the emission rate is made and results discussed. Real up-to-date municipal solid waste incinerator with nominal capacity 100 kt/y is involved in a case study. Benefit of its operation has been compared with other up-to-date utility concepts.     

Green electricity in Belgium : An experimental ground for the future EU market?

The green electricity market is rapidly developing on an international scale, with an ever-increasing concentration of trade at the EU level. In this article Geert Palmers, of 3E NV in Belgium presents his viewpoint on the market mechanisms necessary to prepare for this international trade, while maintaining the subsidiarity at the demand side of the market, and maintaining the ambitions of a recent EU White Paper on this subject.     

Nuclear fusion: luxurious mirage of a long‐term future energy option?

The original vision of controlled thermonuclear fusion as the ideal solution of the energy problems of the mankind collides with the reality of a dramatically expensive research with too long‐term, too uncertain and too limited perspectives. After more than four decades of scientific and technical research, other five decades would be required to commercialization of fusion reactors according to the constant projections the fusion community has been reiterating since the 1980s. However, alone, the huge cost/progress ratio of the attempts of the last 20 years to develop just one ‘next‐step’ experiment and the resulting 10 billion proposal with still unresolved basic engineering/technology problems and highly uncertain physics objectives; this cannot support the anticipated rate of progress. Furthermore, due to their nuclear nature, their inherent large (GWe) size and the very complex and sophisticated technologies, fusion power plants would be strongly limited in meeting ecological, economical and political/social requirements of a future energy mix and in fitting into the already growing trend towards liberalization and restructuring of the energy market. These limitations are increasingly undermining the justification of the immense resources dedicated to research and development of fusion and its attractiveness as a virtually unlimited energy source, particularly in comparison with emerging non‐nuclear systems such as those based on fuel cells. Operated initially with natural gas‐ or coal gas‐derived hydrogen and ultimately with renewable hydrogen, fuel cells (in particular the high‐temperature ones) are becoming the focus of interest for applications in decentralized power and combined heat and power plants, in centralized power stations in the MW range and in the transport sector. Adequately supported, fuel cell technologies can be expected to be commercially established before a hypothetical demonstration of the scientific feasibility of fusion. After a brief review of the historical evolution of major fusion plans, in particular of the next‐step projects in Europe, this paper discusses critically the above mentioned aspects of fusion, addressing primarily the most advanced concept, the ‘tokamak’. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuelwood: The “other” renewable energy source for Africa?

In recent years, increasing concerns over rising oil prices, supply shortfalls and the environmental impacts of fossil fuel use have fed growing interest in renewable energy sources for Sub-Saharan Africa. Although traditional biofuels already enjoy widespread popularity, their use has often been actively discouraged due to the lingering influence of “fuelwood crisis” era narratives. In particular, urban fuelwood consumption is frequently portrayed as a cause of environmental degradation leading to energy insecurity among low-income households, especially where the resource is commercialized. Such views have had significant influence among policy makers, often resulting in repressive forestry legislation. In contrast, however, a number of researchers have demonstrated that wood energy dependence is often not a significant cause of deforestation and can provide important livelihood opportunities. This article reassesses urban fuelwood sourcing and its impacts using a recent case study conducted by the authors in Maun, Botswana and results previously reported in the literature. Findings indicate that although harvesting is unregulated, its impacts are significantly mitigated by collectors' strong preferences for source sites with abundant dead wood, low competition and recognized access rights. As well, fuelwood vending is found to provide critical support to rural incomes and a key source of low-cost urban energy. As such, the benefits of fuelwood use and avoidance of negative effects will most effectively be achieved by decentralised management approaches that build on local institutions and understandings of the resource.     

A hydrogen standard for future energy accounting?

Present methods of energy accounting include both primary energy and final energy consumption. Both these methods have inconsistencies, although today their impact is minor. Some level of inconsistency and approximation in energy accounting is unavoidable when energy inputs come from such heterogeneous sources. We argue that in the decades to come, renewable energy will probably come to dominate the energy supply system, with most from intermittent energy sources, particularly wind and solar. In such an energy system, existing measures will become increasingly irrelevant for tracking energy use over time, for assessing a renewable energy source’s technical potential, and in determining future energy infrastructure needs. Further, conversion of most primary electricity to a storable energy form will be needed, with some then perhaps converted back to electricity as needed. We propose that in this case energy production and demand, and technical potential for renewable energy sources, will be more accurately measured by use of a new energy accounting framework, based on the energy content of hydrogen.     

Does renewable energy generation decrease the volatility of electricity prices? An analysis of Denmark and Germany

Although variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies with zero marginal costs decrease electricity prices, the literature is inconclusive about how the resulting shift in the supply curves impacts price volatility. Because the flexibility to respond to high peak and low off-peak prices is crucial for demand-response applications and may compensate for the losses of conventional generators caused by lower average prices, there is a need to understand how the penetration of VRE affects volatility. In this paper, we build distributed lag models with Danish and German data to estimate the impact of VRE generation on electricity price volatility. We find that in Denmark wind power decreases the daily volatility of prices by flattening the hourly price profile, but in Germany it increases the volatility because it has a stronger impact on off-peak prices. Our analysis suggests that access to flexible generation capacity and wind power generation patterns contribute to these differing impacts. Meanwhile, solar power decreases price volatility in Germany. By contrast, the weekly volatility of prices increases in both areas due to the intermittency of VRE. Thus, policy measures for facilitating the integration of VRE should be tailored to such region-specific patterns.     

Investment in energy efficiency: do the characteristics of investments matter?

??Investment in energy efficiency: do the characteristics of firms matter??? In their famous 1998 paper, DeCanio and Watkins raised the question and answered it affirmatively. Our paper addresses a parallel question: ??Investment in energy efficiency: do the characteristics of investments matter??? To answer this question, we first describe our new investment decision-making model, applicable to all investment types. We then discuss our research results, based on questionnaires submitted to finance managers of 35 major electricity consumers in various commercial and industrial sectors. We show how characteristics other than profitability play an important role in investment choices. The investment category influences profitability evaluation, profitability requirement, and, ultimately, the decision made. For half of the firms in our study, energy-efficiency investments did not exist as a category. However, wide diversity regarding investment behavior is observed between firms. Our findings lead to a different explanation of the energy-efficiency gap and open the way for a new approach to promoting energy-efficiency investments, which is briefly discussed in the conclusion.     

Energy embodied in the international trade of China: An energy input–output analysis

Growing international trade has not only positively affected the People’s Republic of China’s (China’s) economic development, but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production. This energy flow out will pose risks to China’s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection. In this paper, we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in China during 1992–2005 and use input–output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports. (Direct primary energy efficiency, primary energy consumption structure, structure of intermediate inputs, structure of exports, and scale of exports.) For the three sub-periods of 1992–1997, 1997–2002, and 2002–2005, results show that China is a net exporter of energy, and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time. The expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy-intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub-periods, but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub-period from 1992 to 1997. From 2002 to 2005, the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors. Our research has practical implications for the Chinese economy. Results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out-flow and pollution generation.     

The future of the European electricity system and the impact of fluctuating renewable energy – A scenario analysis

The ongoing transformation of the European energy system comes along with new challenges, notably increasing amounts of power generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar. How current objectives for emission reduction can be reached in the future and what the future power system will look like is, however, not fully clear. In particular, power plant investments in the long run and power plant dispatch in the short run are subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore an approach is presented which allows electricity market development to be assessed in the presence of stochastic power feed-in and endogenous investments in power plants and renewable energies. To illustrate the range of possible future developments, five scenarios for the European electricity system up to 2050 are investigated. Both generation investments and dispatch as well as utilization of transmission lines are optimized for these scenarios and additional sensitivity analyses are carried out.     

How fast can businesses in the new energy sector grow? An analysis of critical factors

For the new energy technology markets to grow, demand, prices, and business conditions need to be in balance. It is not just declining prices and increasing volumes that are important, but the business in the new energy sector also needs to be healthy, which is not always the case at present. We have analyzed the ability of businesses in the new energy sector to invest in new production capacity, which influences the total volume growth. Using the self-financeable growth rate (SGR) as an indicator, a declining trend was found among PV and wind power manufacturers. The prospects of initiating new investments through returns from operations are poor or negligible at present, which is explained by tougher competition, shrinking public support, and new entrants, among others. Reducing the cost of sales would be the most effective way to improve the growth prospects, though increasing revenues, e.g., through higher product prices, comes close to achieving the same result. Market measures such as consolidation, rationalization, better asset use, improving efficiency, etc. are equally important. The analysis results imply a growth limit of ca. 15–25% per year with present market conditions, which may also be a more permanent level, supported by findings from technology diffusion and growth model studies. The results suggest that it is not self-evident that the new energy technologies will meet the future goals set for these in the climate and energy policy strategies, unless policymakers and decision makers properly address the issue of restoring and securing sound business conditions.     

Does more energy consumption bolster economic growth? An application of the nonlinear threshold regression model

This paper separates data extending from 1971 to 2002 into the energy crisis period (1971–1980) and the post-energy crisis period (1981–2000) for 82 countries. The cross-sectional data (yearly averages) in these two periods are used to investigate the nonlinear relationships between energy consumption growth and economic growth when threshold variables are used. If threshold variables are higher than certain optimal threshold levels, there is either no significant relationship or else a significant negative relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. However, when these threshold variables are lower than certain optimal levels, there is a significant positive relationship between the two. In 48 out of the 82 countries studied, none of the four threshold variables is found to be higher than the optimal levels. It is inferred that these 48 countries should adopt a more aggressive energy policy. As for the other 34 countries, at least one threshold variable is higher than the optimal threshold level and thus these countries should adopt energy policies with varying degrees of conservation based on the number of threshold variables that are higher than the optimal threshold levels.     

Is bioethanol a sustainable energy source? An energy-, exergy-, and emergy-based thermodynamic system analysis

Biofuels are widely seen as substitutes for fossil fuels to offset the imminent decline of oil production and to mitigate the emergent increase in GHG emissions. This view is, however, based on too simple an analysis, focusing on only one piece in the whole mosaic of the complex biofuel techno-system, and such partial approaches may easily lead to ideological bias based on political preference. This study defines the whole biofuel techno-system at three scales, i.e., the foreground production (A), the background industrial network (B, including A), and the supporting Earth biosphere (C, including B). The thermodynamic concepts of energy, exergy and emergy measure various flows at these three scales, viz. primary resources, energy and materials products, and labor and services. Our approach resolves the confusion about scale and metric: direct energy demand and direct exergy demand apply at scale A; cumulative energy demand and cumulative exergy demand apply at scale B; and energy is applied at scale C, where it is named emergy, while exergy also can be applied at scale C. This last option was not examined in the present study.The environmental performance of the system was assessed using a number of sustainability indicators, including resource consumption, input renewability, physical benefit, and system efficiency, using ethanol from corn stover in the US as a technology case. Results were compared with available literature values for typical biofuel alternatives. We also investigated the influence of methodological choices on the outcomes, based on contribution analysis, as well as the sensitivity of the outcomes to emergy intensity. The results indicate that the techno-system is not only supported by commercial energy and materials products, but also substantially by solar radiation and the labor and services invested. The bioethanol techno-system contributes to the overall supply of energy/exergy resources, although in a less efficient way than the process by which the Earth system produces fossil fuels.Our results show that bioethanol cannot be simply regarded as a renewable energy resource. Furthermore, the method chosen for the thermodynamic analysis results in different outcomes in terms of ranking the contributions by various flows. Consequently, energy analysis, exergy analysis, and emergy analysis jointly provide comprehensive indications of the energy-related sustainability of the biofuel techno-system. This thermodynamic analysis can provide theoretical support for decision making on sustainability issues.     

The role of hydrogen energy development in the Korean economy: An input–output analysis

Korea has been developing hydrogen energy technology to enhance its energy security. The Hydrogen Energy R&D Center established by the Korean government invested about 100 billion Korean won (KRW) into the development of hydrogen energy technology from 2003 to 2012. This study uses input–output (I–O) analysis, along with the scenario–based exogenous specification method, to investigate the effect of hydrogen energy technology investment on the Korean economy for the period 2020–2040. We focus on two perspectives: (1) the sectoral linkage effect and (2) the sectoral impacts of hydrogen energy supply investments. The overall results reveal that the hydrogen sector can be characterized as intermediate primary production because of its high backward and forward linkage effects. By 2040, total production in the hydrogen sector under two scenarios will be 13,484 and 2979 billion KRW, respectively. This study is a pioneering study into the assessment of the economy–wide effects of Korea's hydrogen energy industries.     

Integrated MAED–MARKAL-based analysis of future energy scenarios of Nepal

This paper employs an integrated model for analysis of energy demand and MARKet ALlocation modelling framework for assessing different pathways for the development of energy systems of Nepal. Four energy scenarios are analysed with the time horizon from 2010 to 2030. With high electrification and energy efficiency and demand-side management, the analysis reveals that all three major goals of sustainable energy for all can be achieved by 2030, but that the total discounted systems costs required account for three times the costs of the reference scenario. In the policy scenario, net fuel import costs and greenhouse gas emissions will decline by 20% and 35%, respectively and the share of renewable energy will increase from 3% in 2010 to 22% in 2030. The analysis provides insights for selecting a better pathway for the sustainable energy development and energy security of the country.     

Fuelwood as an energy source for the commercial cooking sector – An overview analysis focused in the city of São Paulo,Brazil

This paper provides an overview analysis of fuelwood utilization in the commercial cooking sector. Cultural, market and logistic factors that may weaken the explanatory power of the energy ladder hypothesis are highlighted. Additionally, gender issues and health and environmental aspects related to fuelwood use in cities are explored. The analysis is developed as from the viewpoint of the use of different fuels for cooking in urban areas, focusing on commercial establishments. Evidences were observed in the pizza market in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, demonstrating that consumer expectations, expressed by means of classical market pressure mechanisms, can markedly influence this commercial cooking niche and consist in an important driving force for its energy choice. The city has the second largest pizza market in the world, characterized by the commercialization of 40 million units of the product per month in over 5000 commercial establishments. Interviews conducted in 270 of these establishments reveal that 88% use fuelwood ovens despite its lower practicality and wide availability of modern energy options such as electricity and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The work validates the fuel stacking model, according to which energy diversification – and not substitution –, results from economic development, urbanization and/or a population income growth.