Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries

Energy security has become a popular catch phrase, both in the scientific arena as well as in the political discussion. Yet, in general the applied concepts of energy security are rather vague. This paper sheds some light on concepts and indicators of energy security. First, we conceptually discuss the issue of energy supply security and explain why it is not to handle by one science alone and what economics may contribute in order to structure the topic. After providing a brief survey of existing attempts to define or measure energy security we suggest an additional dimension along which indicators of energy security may be classified: ex-post and ex-ante indicators. Finally, we illustrate our concept on the basis of several simplified indicators. While ex-post indicators are mostly based on price developments, ex-ante indicators are to a greater extent aimed at illustrating potential problems. Our illustration suggests that it is worthwhile to take into account the market structure along with the political stability of exporting countries.     

China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments in overseas energy: The energy security perspective

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are state-owned investment funds that invest in real and financial assets. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, SWFs' investments have resulted in national security concerns of host countries because SWFs continue to expand rapidly and have become increasingly active in real-time strategic transactions. Given this background, China, which has the biggest SWF in the world, is facing severe challenges of energy resources shortages while its plan is to accomplish social and economic development goals. Energy security is a key driving force of the energy investment policy of China's SWFs. This makes the SWF investments more complicated and more politically sensitive. The combination of sovereign rights and the strategic importance of energy also makes geopolitics more complicated and brings more uncertainty to SWF investments. This article explores the relationship between energy security and energy investments of China's SWFs. It is recognised that the energy investment of SWFs must follow a sustainable path to coordinate energy security, economic growth, return on investment and national security concerns. Government policymakers are urged to balance the financial and political returns on SWFs against potential negative effects. The conclusion presents insights for policymakers, energy scholars and SWF researchers.     

China’s energy security: The perspective of energy users

The article explores the energy security concerns faced by China from the point of view of energy users working in government, university, civil society and business sectors. The authors first derive a set of seven hypotheses related to Chinese energy security drawn from a review of the recent academic literature. We then explain each of these seven hypotheses, relating to (1) security of energy supply, (2) geopolitics, (3) climate change, (4) decentralization, (5) energy efficiency, (6) research and innovation of new energy technologies, and (7) self sufficiency and trade. Lastly, the article tests these hypotheses through a survey distributed in English and Mandarin completed by 312 Chinese participants. The conclusion presents insights for policymakers and energy scholars.     

The early design model for prediction of energy and cost performance of building design options

In order to encourage the use of computer modelling in building environmental analysis, it is necessary to provide a model developed from the designer's point of view. Detailed simulation models require a high degree of expertise and familiarity, further, there is also a need for detailed information not available in the early stages of the design process. Simplified models play an important role in the early stages of a design to achieve an integrated design: firstly, they are easy to use and, secondly, they require information easily available at the start of a design. In the Early Design Model (EDM) the solar gain utilisation factor has been determined as a continuous function of thermal mass. The differences between the annual energy predictions of EDM and SERI-RES ranges from 0.1% to 4.6% for time constants ranging from 378 to 2.52 hours. The differences between the two sets of predictions on monthly basis ranges from m 3.6% to m 6.48% (EDM's predictions being larger) during the heating season, and from +2.86% to a maximum of +51% (EDM's predictions being smaller) in the remaining part of the year. In addition to energy predictions, EDM incorporates a facility which gives cost indications.     

Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration

Economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fail to provide clear guidance to policy makers. As a result, governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security. This is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals, and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies. This paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making. The paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity. It defines two separate indexes: the energy security price index (ESPI), based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets, and the energy security physical availability index (ESPAI), based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets. The paper illustrates the application of ESPI and ESPAI with two case studies—France and the United Kingdom—looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030.     

The four ‘R's of energy security

Energy can be a confusing issue to the general public, policymakers, and politicians. Adding energy security to the lexicon has not provided any clarification. To assist in explaining some of the concepts associated with energy security and to show how an individual or organization can improve energy security, this paper introduces the “four ‘R's of energy security”: review (understanding the problem), reduce (using less energy), replace (shifting to secure sources), and restrict (limiting new demand to secure sources).     

Exploring public perceptions of energy security risks in the UK

Along with climate change and affordability, concerns about energy security are key drivers behind proposals for major energy system change in the UK and numerous other countries. Unlike climate change we know very little about how the public thinks and feels about this aspect of sustainability and energy policy. Beyond engaging critically with conceptual and theoretical discussions, empirical data from two surveys (Cardiff postal survey, N=520; online UK survey, N=499) using a ten item energy security scale are presented and discussed. Here we show that aspects of energy security are certainly of concern to the UK public, with particularly high concern around dependence on fossil fuels/imports and relatively lower expressed concern for actual disruption of energy supply. However public concerns around energy security are only emerging, and likely to change depending on the context in which it is discussed (e.g. in comparison to climate change). In addition, findings from public interviews are used to further contextualise the survey findings, showing unfamiliarity among the UK public with regards to the term “energy security”. We discuss implications, and further work that would be useful for understanding public perceptions in more depth.     

Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies

We present evidence on one facet of energy security in OECD economies—the extent of diversification in sources of oil and natural gas supplies. Viewed from the perspective of the energy-importing countries as a whole, there has not been much change in diversification in oil supplies over the last decade, but diversification in sources of natural gas supplies has increased steadily. We document the considerable cross-country heterogeneity in the extent of diversification. We also show how the extent of diversification changes if account is taken of the political risk attached to suppliers; the size of the importing country; and transportation risk.     

Germany and energy security in the 2000s: Rise and fall of a policy issue?

After some two decades of inattention, the issue of energy security once again moved to the top of the policy agenda in Germany in the mid-2000s. After briefly achieving renewed prominence, however, it was eclipsed in German energy policy, at least temporarily, by heightened concerns about climate change. This paper explains the re-emergence of concerns about energy insecurity in recent years as well as the reasons for their subsequent overshadowing. It describes and explains the steps that have been taken during this period to promote German energy security and analyzes their adequacy. The paper identifies a number of reasons to be skeptical about how much the agreed policies will improve Germany's energy security, but it concludes that there are nevertheless good reasons to expect the issue to regain the attention of policy-makers in the future.     

Shaping China's energy security: The impact of domestic reforms

This paper is a subsequent study of China's energy security situation which concludes that China's energy security has not improved over 30 years of economic reform. The objective of the study is to explore qualitatively why the energy security situation has not improved. To answer the ‘why’ question, the study opens up a new perspective by analyzing the relationship between energy security and energy policies from the macroeconomic reform perspective. This study discusses major reforms that took place over 30 years. It is found that China's macroeconomic reform has restricted the formation of China's energy policies and determined its energy security situation. In essence, China's energy policies are only a reaction to the macroeconomic measures. In other words, China's energy policies are not originally intended to improve energy security, but passive reactions to China's macroeconomic reform. This explains why China did not improve its energy security situation despite 30 years of reform.     

Specific concerns of Pakistan in the context of energy security issues and geopolitics of the region

The global and regional energy security in future is not likely to be threatened as much by the shortage of resources as it is likely to be endangered by the disruption of supplies and availability of tradable resources: threatened by growing terrorism and geopolitical conflicts. Pakistan's geo-strategic position and its importance act to both influence and undermine its energy security issues. It has the potential to provide a corridor for regional energy trade but it is ranked among the top nations exposed to potential threat of terrorist attacks because of the consequences of its role in the major geopolitical expeditions of the recent past. The paper examines the concerns of Pakistan emanating from the regional and global geopolitics of energy from Pakistan's viewpoint.     

The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe’s energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European–North African energy future.     

Energy demand and supply,energy policies,and energy security in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use—especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors—have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's “green economy” and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.     

Modelling of electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste system: The case of Dhaka city

This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict population growth, solid waste production, electricity generation from solid waste and percentage of total electricity demand supplied from the solid waste of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated solid waste generation in Dhaka agrees well with values reported by the Dhaka City Corporation. Simulated results show that population, solid waste generation and electricity generation potential from solid waste all increase with time, but percentage of total electricity demand supplied from solid waste decreases with time. However, MSW could still supply a significant portion of the electricity demand of Dhaka. Adoption of policy for electricity recovery from urban solid waste should be dictated by the economic adoption of the technology for electricity generation from the waste and the environmental implications. The model can be used for analysing electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste management.     

An integrated assessment of climate change,air pollution,and energy security policy

This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost–benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world’s oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO₂ emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 °C with respect to the pre-industrial level.     

The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy

This paper discusses the iterative provision of modelling insights on long-term decarbonisation scenarios for UK energy policy makers. A multi-year model construction process of the UK MARKAL-Macro-hybrid energy-economic model, and four subsequent major policy analyses illustrates the scope of this interaction. The initial set of modelling runs focused on the technical feasibility of long-term 60% carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction scenarios, the role of key technologies, and the underlying uncertainties. Furthermore subsequent modelling studies were aimed to generate insights on more stringent targets, and on issues and uncertainties that may make targets harder to achieve. Hence, this paper analyses the large number of long-term UK CO₂ reduction scenarios through a clustering approach on target stringency and barriers to implementation. Robust findings and key uncertainties are highlighted, including the critical role of the power sector, trade-offs between resources, sectors, key energy technologies and behavioural responses, and the increasing level and spread of CO₂ marginal prices and GDP impacts. The relevance and use of modelling insights to the UK energy policy process is shown in the continuation of the energy modelling–policy interface. This constitutes both ongoing model development, and nuanced scenario analysis designed to further explore key uncertainties in evolving policy issues.     

The analysis of security cost for different energy sources

Global concerns for the security of energy have steadily been on the increase and are expected to become a major issue over the next few decades. Urgent policy response is thus essential. However, little attempt has been made at defining both energy security and energy metrics. In this study, we provide such metrics and apply them to four major energy sources in the Korean electricity market: coal, oil, liquefied natural gas, and nuclear. In our approach, we measure the cost of energy security in terms of supply disruption and price volatility, and we consider the degree of concentration in energy supply and demand using the Hirschman–Herfindahl index (HHI). Due to its balanced fuel supply and demand, relatively stable price, and high abundance, we find nuclear energy to be the most competitive energy source in terms of energy security in the Korean electricity market. LNG, on the other hand, was found to have the highest cost in term of energy security due to its high concentration in supply and demand, and its high price volatility. In addition, in terms of cost, we find that economic security dominates supply security, and as such, it is the main factor in the total security cost. Within the confines of concern for global energy security, our study both broadens our understanding of energy security and enables a strategic approach in the portfolio management of energy consumption.     

Life cycle energy and environmental benefits of generating electricity from willow biomass

Biomass is a key renewable energy source expected to play an important role in US electricity production under stricter emission regulations and renewable portfolio standards. Willow energy crops are being developed in the northeast US as a fuel source for increasing biomass energy and bioproduct demands. A life cycle inventory is presented that characterizes the full cradle-to-grave energy and environmental performance of willow biomass-to-electricity. A willow biomass production model is developed using demonstration-scale field experience from New York. Scenarios are presented that mimic anticipated cofiring operations, including supplemental use of wood residues, at an existing coal-fired generating facility. At a cofiring rate of 10% biomass, the system net energy ratio (electricity delivered divided by total fossil fuel consumed) increases by 8.9% and net global warming potential decreases by 7–10%. Net SO₂ emissions are reduced by 9.5% and a significant reduction in NO_x emissions is expected. In addition, we estimate system performance of using willow biomass in dedicated biomass gasification and direct-fired generating facilities and demonstrate that the pollution avoided (relative to the current electricity grid) is comparable to other renewables such as PV and wind.     

Viability of hydrogen pathways that enhance energy security: A comparison of China and Denmark

Abstract

When designed and built properly, hydrogen energy systems can enhance energy security through technological diversification and minimizing dependence on foreign imports of energy fuels. However, hydrogen can be produced from different feedstocks according to separate pathways, and these different pathways create particular consequences on a nation's overall energy security. The objective of this study is to investigate the superiorities and inferiorities of hydrogen pathways from the perspective of China and Denmark, and to determine which pathways best contribute to national energy security objectives. The results are useful for stakeholders and energy analysts so that they can correctly plan and research the most socially optimal portfolio of hydrogen technologies.     

Supplying the energy of islands with geopolitical positions using distributed generations to increase energy security

The islands usually face challenges in their energy supply due to their specific location. On islands that are distant from the land, power is typically provided by diesel generators. Therefore, oil tankers must regularly refuel the island in order to supply the necessary fuel for diesel generators. As a result, if the fueling procedure is not completed for whatever reason, the island will not receive the necessary energy, which will result in an unavoidable loss of load. Due to their strategic location, some of these islands are used as military islands to protect the nations and waterways. Given the vital role that these military islands play for nations, a delay in supplying the island with energy can seriously harm security, the economy, and other factors. Transferring fuel to these islands is typically difficult, and in some cases impossible, under certain circumstances, such as war. Therefore, reducing the island's reliance on fossil fuels as much as feasible is vital to ensure the energy security of these specific islands. Diesel generators provide electricity to Larak Island, which is situated in the Strait of Hormuz. Larak Island serves as a military island due to its geopolitical location, hence it is crucial to consistently provide Larak with electricity. Therefore, in this paper, a combination of distributed generations and system storage is used to supply the Larak island. The photovoltaic, wind and tidal plants are considered the main power plants, and fuel cells with electrolyzers and hydrogen tanks have also been used as storage systems. In addition, the diesel generator is considered the system backup. The considered objective functions to design and manage Larak island's power supply system are reducing diesel generators fuel consumption, reducing electricity cost, and reducing electricity outages and lost power generation of renewable resources.