共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 531 毫秒
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为了有效评价河北省水环境安全状况,立足于河北省水环境和水资源现状,基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)模型构建水环境安全评价体系,引入加权马氏距离和灰色关联分析改进TOPSIS,采取熵值法计算指标权重,运用改进TOPSIS法评估河北省2010~2019年水环境安全状况。结果表明,2010~2019年河北省水环境安全相对贴进度呈波动上升趋势,由0.405增至0.561,整体由基本安全向安全状态发展,表明水环境安全状况逐渐好转,其中,2014年相对贴进度最低(为Ⅳ级),2019年最高(为Ⅱ级);河北省应从产业结构调整、环保投入、农业节水等方面做出积极响应,从而降低水环境风险。 相似文献
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针对唐山市地域特征和水安全现状,采用压力一状态一响应模型(PSR)建立了唐山市水安全评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,对唐山市2004~2012年水安全状况进行综合评价,并在此基础上利用灰色系统模型GM(1,1)对唐山市2013~2020年的水安全状况进行预测。结果表明,唐山市2005~2009年的水安全状况处于基本安全状态,2012年水安全状况转为安全,但仍在安全与不安全状态的边缘波动,2013~2020年城市水安全状况会逐渐好转,但压力、状态、响应因子呈现不同的变化幅度,说明人类社会经济活动对水环境的影响较大,仍需加大水环境保护投资和水环境污染治理力度,提高水资源承载力才能形成生态环境与社会经济和谐发展的局面,从而确保城市用水安全。 相似文献
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随着城市化的发展,水环境安全的重要性日渐凸显。为评价城市化进程中不同发展模式对区域水环境安全的影响效应,以DPSR模型为理论基础,建立城市水环境安全评价指标体系,对浙江省台州市椒江区2013年水环境安全进行评价,并在此基础上设置六种发展模式情景,预测椒江区2025年水环境安全状况。结果表明,椒江区现状水环境安全度为2.605,总体较差,以响应层最为薄弱;六种情景预测方案对水环境安全的提升度为情景6情景5情景3情景4情景2情景1,其中情景3、5、6水环境安全均达到较好状态。以提高环保投资、强化废污水收集处理为主的发展模式对椒江区水环境安全的提升效果显著,且多种措施并重的发展模式对水环境安全的提升效果更佳。研究成果对于区域水环境保护及经济社会可持续发展意义重大。 相似文献
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湖南省饮水安全综合评价研究 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
针对湖南省饮水资源特征及现状,从水量、水质、供水三方面提出一个4层14指标的饮水安全综合评价指标体系;分别采用层次分析法、基于AHP的模糊集综合评价法、突变评价法,对湖南省各地市饮水安全进行综合评价;运用突变理论与聚类分析方法将全省饮水安全状况分为6个区,并分析各区突出的饮水问题.计算结果表明,郴州市饮水状况处于非常安全状态,益阳市、永州市及怀化市的饮水状况处于安全状态,湘潭市饮水状况处于不安全状态,其他地市(州)饮水状况处于基本安全状态;三种方法的对比分析表明,突变评价法计算简单、客观性强、结果较合理,能够反映不同地区饮水安全状态的差异性. 相似文献
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为综合评价江苏省主要河流水环境状况,基于江苏省境内三大流域13条主要河流35个采样点的生物和理化数据,采用因子分析和相关分析法建立了兼顾生物信息和理化信息的河流综合评价体系,并采用对应分析法分析了影响评价结果的原因。结果表明,江苏省主要河流水环境状况不容乐观,营养元素氮排放可能是重要原因。 相似文献
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基于层次分析法,根据矿井实际状况,共选择了15小类指标建立了安全评价体系,通过量化处理等方法,对各指标进行了评价.此外,成功预测了2015—2020年之间矿井人员负伤率,证明了安全评价体系的可行性、可信性. 相似文献
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Reliability analysis has been considered as an important step in any system design process. A reliable electrical power system means a system which has sufficient power to feed the load demand during a certain period or, in other words, has small Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). LOLP is defined as an expected fraction of load not met by its power needs from electrical power system during its lifetime. Photovoltaic (PV)/Wind Energy System (WES) Hybrid Electric Power System (PV/WES HEPS) differs considerably from the Utility Grid (UG) in its performance and operating characteristics. With the interconnection of PV/WES as a HEPS into the UG, the fluctuating nature of the energy produced by these systems has a different effect on the overall system reliability than that of the fluctuating nature of energy produced by UG. Therefore, this paper presents a complete study, from reliability point of view, to determine the impact of interconnecting PV/WES HEPS into UG. Four different configurations of PV/WES/UG have been investigated and a comparative study between these four different configurations has been carried out. The overall system is divided into three subsystems, containing the UG, PV and WES. The generation capacity outage table has been built for each configuration of these subsystems. These capacity outage tables of UG, PV/UG, WES/UG and PV/WES/UG are calculated and updated to incorporate their fluctuating energy production. This paper also presents a fuzzy logic technique to calculate and assess the reliability index for each HEPS configuration under study. 相似文献
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Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers’ network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. 相似文献
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水安全问题在国家发展战略中占有重要地位,对水安全的分析和评价是了解一个国家或地区安全与否的重要手段,而全面合理的水安全评价指标体系的建立是水安全评价效果的重要保证。本文在对区域水安全的多个影响因素进行分析整理的基础上,引入层次分析法对各影响因素重要性程度进行量化分析,在此基础上剔除了其中权重较小的因素,形成了相对合理的评价指标体系。这种对评价指标的筛选方法能够避免因指标选择过少而影响评价精度,也能降低后续计算的复杂程度,同时也不会对评价的效果造成较大影响。 相似文献
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识别合流制管网溢流特征是城市水环境治理工作的重要依据,也是城市给排水研究的难题。为此,基于支持向量机算法与SWMM模型进行耦合分析场降雨事件合流制溢流特征。以北京市通州区海绵城市建设试点区域内一片老城区为例,通过建立SWMM模型构造数据集训练得到SVM模型,对历史127场降雨事件进行溢流特征识别,在训练期、测试期精度分别达到93%、89%,表明基于支持向量机的算法精度可靠,结果符合实际,能作为一种新的手段识别合流制管网溢流特征,为海绵城市规划设计、防灾减灾与水环境治理工作提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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