Effects of improved energy efficiency on U.S. energy use: 1973–1980

Between 1973 and 1980, U.S. energy use grew at an average annual rate that was only one-tenth the pre-embargo rate. This dramatic change in energy growth was caused by a combination of rapidly rising fuel prices, slower economic growth, occasional shortages of fuels, and government and utility conservation programs.This paper examines the post-embargo period in terms of energy use in each of the major sectors: residential and commercial buildings, transportation, and industry. The analysis deals with two issues: what changes occurred in energy use during this period relative to pre-embargo trends and why these changes occurred.Energy use in 1980 (76 quads) was about 20 quads lower than pre-embargo trends would suggest. About half of this reduction was due to slower growth in economic activity. The remainder was due to improvements in energy efficiency, spurred primarily by rising fuel prices and also by government and utility conservation programs. The 1980 increase in overall energy efficiency (10 quads) was due primarily to technical efficiency improvements and secondarily to operational changes.     

Measuring energy savings — problems

The contribution of government energy conservation programmes to reducing national energy is an important but largely unresolved issue. This paper discusses estimating the energy-savings impact of US Department of Energy (DOE) conservation programmes. Programme-by-programme estimates of energy savings have been analysed, the results indicating that DOE conservation programmes have reduced US energy use by more than 0.5 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) annually since 1981. Limitations in the available evaluative information, however, preclude reaching unambiguous conclusions.     

Identifying barriers to the success of consumer energy conservation policies

Barriers to energy conservation inhibit or retard changes in current inefficient patterns of energy use. This paper reports the results of a project which identified barriers to energy conservation by individual householders. The focus was specifically on non-technical barriers; that is, social, institutional and economic factors which prevent people from increasing the efficiency with which they use energy. Barriers were identified by content analysis of interviews with householders; these barriers were therefore those that were seen as being important from the perspective of the householder. Six categories of barriers were identified on the basis of the circumstances out of which the barriers arose. Distributed among these six categories were 25 different types of barriers. Householders' responses towards energy conservation policy proposals were also assessed. Favourable evaluation of a policy proposal did not necessarily lead to an intention to adopt an energy-conserving practice, presumably because of the existence of barriers to energy conservation. Energy policy makers should examine in detail barriers to energy conservation of the types identified in this paper, and then develop appropriate policy mechanisms to overcome these barriers.     

能量计量应用过程中的问题凸现及对策

我国建筑能耗中采暖能耗是欧洲同纬度国家的3倍。推行建筑物能量计量,是保证能源利用效率达到最优的前提。本文论述了国内外的计量方法与应用程度,对我国供热计量收费改革进行了分析,强调建筑物能量计量是我国建筑节能的关键环节之一。     

Energy savings potential from improved building controls for the US commercial building sector

The US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a study to determine the national savings achievable in the commercial buildings through widespread deployment of controls, elimination of faults, and use of better sensing. The study estimated savings from 34 measures in 9 building types and across 16 climates. These buildings are responsible for almost 57% of the US commercial building sector energy consumption. In addition to the individual measures, three packages of measures were created to estimate savings: (1) efficient building, (2) typical building, and (3) inefficient building. The results showed significant potential for energy savings across all building types and climates. The total site potential savings by building type aggregated across all climates for each measure varied between 0 and 16%. The total site potential savings aggregated across all building types and climates for each measure varied between 0 and 11%. The national potential site energy savings across all building types studied is 29%. Across all building types, the savings represent approximately 1393 PJ (1.32 quads) of site energy savings or 2912 PJ (2.76 quads) of primary (or source) energy savings. Extrapolating the results for other building types not analyzed as part of this study, the primary energy savings could be in the range of 4220 to 5275 PJ. For comparison, the total US primary energy consumption across all sectors of energy use was 102,762 PJ (97.4 quads) in 2015. This makes commercial building control improvements strategically important to sustained reductions in national energy consumption. To realize most of this potential savings, many gaps can be addressed through research development and deployment (RD&D), as recommended in this paper.     

End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention.This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%).     

中国节能十问

当前,我国推进节能面临理念、政策和体制等障碍。节能和能源效率是减少提供同等能源服务的能源投入,其首要目的是为了获取经济效益。推进节能的最大障碍是体制性障碍。2002年,我国能源强度比非OECD国家高50%,物理能源效率比国际先进水平低10个百分点。节能必须由政府主导。节能优先是把以最小成本向终端用户提供能源服务放在能源决策的首要位置。为此,应推行节能新机制、政策工具和激励措施,调整节能战略重点,政府机构要带头节能。     

On energy conservation policies and implementation practices

Energy conservation is now playing a key role in industrial development and is vital for sustainable development. Therefore, it should be implemented by all possible means, despite of its own limitations. This study highlights the current enviromental issues and potential solutions to these issues, identifies the main steps for implementing energy conservation programs and the main barriers to such implementations, and provides assessments for energy conservation potentials for countries, as well as various practical and environmental aspects of energy conservation. It is believed that this paper will be beneficial to energy policy makers particularly for energy conservation programmes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investing in energy conservation: Are homeowners passing up high yields?

Energy conservation is examined as an investment option for homeowners. Conservation technologies produce monetary benefits through reduced fuel costs. Calculations suggest that many conservation measures have rates of return significantly higher than alternative investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate, yet the level of conservation activity is inconsistent with these high yields. Several barriers exist which inhibit investments in conservation; it is perceived as risky and the cost of obtaining reliable information is high. Public policies to encourage conservation should focus on reducing the risk of purchasing energy saving devices by improving the accuracy of energy savings estimates.     

Impact of government subsidies on market penetration of synthetic fuels

This paper assesses the impacts of various levels of government subsidies on the degree of US dependency on imported energy for the period 1977–2001 and on the reduction of energy bills under the ‘base case’, ‘conservation’, and ‘most likely’ scenarios using the Gulf/SRI US energy model. If the US government subsidizes synfuel production by 50 cents/MMBtu (10⁶ Btu), total synthetic fuel production and market penetration could be 15·1–16·9 quads (10¹⁵ Btu) in 2001 against 8·3–9·8 quads given no subsidy. This will result in a reduction of oil and gas imports by 3·8–4·3 quads by 2001. The analyses indicate that during the period 1977–2001, for every 1 MMBtu desired reduction in imported oil, each MMBtu of synfuel produced should be subsidized by $1.50–1.88.     

Energy conservation options for residential water heaters

Current designs of gas-fired and electric water heaters present a substantial opportunity for energy conservation through reductions in jacket losses, pilot losses and flue-gas losses. A systematic analysis and comparison of alternative energy-conserving designs has been carried out. Promising options for gas-fired water heaters include increased insulation, thermostat setback, forced-draft burners with intermittent ignition and flue closure, and instantaneous (low storage) designs. High efficiency electric water heaters incorporate increased insulation, thermostat setback, solar preheat, and heat pump operation. The evolution and market penetration of these alternative designs, some of which are commercially available at this writing, can reduce the energy usage for residential water heating in the U.S. by approx. 0.3 quads in the near-term, and up to 1.0 quads in the long-term as advanced designs achieve widespread saturation.     

Renewables in the U.S. Energy Future: How much,how fast?

Recent major studies of the U.S. Energy Future have yielded estimates of the potential contribution of renewable energy sources in this country by the year 2000 ranging from 0.1 to 25 quadrillion Btu (quads) per year, exclusive of geothermal and hydropower. In this article, I compare the assumptions, methods, and detailed findings of a number of these studies in order to illuminate the reasons for real and apparent disagreements. The methods used in the studies ranged from literature review combined with author judgment to elaborate energy-economic models. Not surprisingly, key assumptions involved the price of oil, coal, and nuclear power through the year 2000, costs of various technologies for harnessing renewables in this period, and the presence or absence of nonmarket incentives for renewables based on perceived advantages of these sources other than cost. After disentangling the assumptions and findings of the various studies on a source-by-source basis, I find that the contribution of renewables in the U.S. in the year 2000 probably will fall in a narrower range, from 4 to 18 quads per year. Policies in force at the end of the Carter Administration probably would have produced an intermediate figure of about 8 quads per year; the lower limit of 4 quads per year corresponds to imposition and continuation of the sort of reduced incentives that seem at this early stage to represent the policy of the Reagan Administration. Arguments are adduced here to suggest that sound public policy would seek to achieve the opposite, a societal commitment to implementation of the most attractive renewables-based technologies, aiming to produce perhaps 15–18 quads per year in the year 2000 and increasing amounts thereafter.     

Global options for short-range alternative energy strategies

A discussion is presented on the possibilities of supplying the energy needs of the world and particularly of the developing countries on the basis of renewable resources: hydro power and biomass. Hydro power is found to be underused in many parts of the developing countries and, up to the end of the century at least, 25 quads per year could be produced from this source. In addition, the unused annual increment of present-day forests could supply at least another 100 quads/year in developing countries. In industrialized countries only conservation can have a significant impact as an alternative strategy.     

Materials for energy conservation and storage

Some areas of energy use where improved materials could lead to energy savings are surveyed. Current energy use patterns and their likely evolution to the end of the century are also reviewed so that particular applications may be seen in perspective against overall energy consumption and other energy conservation measures. Energy conservation is viewed both from the point of view of energy inputs to materials and how process improvements might permit savings, and also by considering general modes of energy use—transport and combustion in particular—and assessing some general ways in which conservation could be achieved. Areas such as improved engine-management of internal combustion engined vehicles and improved batteries for electric vehicles, where progress depends very much on materials developments, are surveyed in more detail. The need for improved sensors to measure exhaust gas composition in vehicles is one particular aspect of a general need for improved monitoring to permit better quality control and hence optimal fuel input for industrial processes requiring heat. Energy storage procedures are surveyed, together with a discussion of electricity generating methods and future electricity use. Attention is given to current fuel cell programmes, which offer the potential of increased conversion efficiency of fossil fuel to electricity compared with conventional power stations but where materials problems are critical in determining commercial success, to heat storage materials, and to water electrolysis and hydrogen production as a means of energy storage. The utilisation of electrochemical processes in solids or at surfaces or interfaces is a general theme underlying many of the technologies discussed.     

Budget constrained energy conservation-an experience with a textileindustry

The conservation and efficient use of energy in industry has, for a long time, been a priority of the Government of India. In anticipation of the enactment of federal legislation on energy management for industry, the State of Government of Tamilnadu, Kerala, and other Southern States, made energy audits mandatory for large-scale energy-consuming industries. So among industrial consumers, the aspect of energy conservation is gaining due importance of the realization that "Energy Saved is Energy Produced and that too at Economical Cost". This paper shares the experiences of the authors on energy conservation projects carried out in a textile industry situated in India's Tamilnadu State. Economic and efficient measures of energy conservation have been followed subject to budget constraints and the effect of such measures were realized through reduction in energy costs with the added advantage of environmental safety     

Energy conservation in Chinese housing

In the People's Republic of China (PR China), even though climatic conditions are severe, energy use in buildings has traditionally been insignificant by Western standards. The recent increases in household energy consumption have left two options: increase household energy use at the expense of industrial and environmental gains, or develop policies to conserve or restrict household energy consumption. This paper explores the problems in introducing low-cost energy conservation practices in Henan Province, PR China. The paper describes both the practical problems encountered in the introduction of new building materials and designs and also the institutional barriers that inhibit the development of an energy conservation delivery system. A major theme of this paper is that conventional Western solutions for energy conservation often come up against significant unexpected barriers in developing nations, rendering these solutions ineffective. For instance, the high cost and/or unavailability of materials in many countries require building redesign solutions that do not utilize insulation, vapour barriers, and modern heating and cooling plants. Similarly, the particular political and economic organization of a country may mean that coordination of a regional or national conservation programme will require an approach quite different from the public or private development programmes in Western developed countries.     

Overcoming social and institutional barriers to energy conservation

Although economically rational responses to the energy crisis, energy conservation actions may be hindered by social and institutional barriers. The nature of these barriers is explored and a taxonomy of barriers is proposed. Results of a series of interviews provide examples of the different types of barriers. Strategies for overcoming barriers are examined and some criteria for evaluating such strategies are developed. The importance of considering not only the efficiency of strategies in achieving the goal of energy conservation, but also their impacts on other—possibly competing—social and economic goals is emphasized. The need for increased efforts aimed at overcoming barriers and further research into the nature of these barriers is discussed.     

我国工业节能现状调研和对策

近年来我国一次能源的消费持续快速增长,尤其是工业领域能耗巨大,约占我国总能耗的70%,能源供应形势严峻。针对目前我国以化石能源消耗为主的能耗结构,本文在用能现状分析的基础上,着重从科学用能的角度提出了节能降耗的关键技术路线,主要包括热能的梯级利用、能源-资源的综合利用、动力机械节能、余能的回收利用等,同时探讨了依靠良好的政策管理、积极的示范推广来实现节能的目的。     

Solar energy with chemical storage for cogeneration of electric power and heat

U.S.A. energy use by the year 2000 is estimated to be 116–130 quads, compared to 82 quads for 1978. Solar energy, utilized both at the individual residence-building level plus power plant level, along with all other conventional and new energy sources, will be needed to meet future energy demand. In order to make maximum utilization of energy sources to meet national energy-conservation and energy-economic policy, a power plant of the future must cogenerate electrical energy and heat medium, whether it burns fossil fuel or uses solar energy.A solar energy Central Receiver-AHS Chemical Storage cogeneration power plant can be configured to give complete flexibility for day-night and seasonal load combinations, with work efficiencies up to 46 per cent. Such a plant, as a stand-alone or network station, is a real possibility in the not too distant future. Electrical energy and heat medium produced therefrom will be competitive with fossil fuel powered generating plants.A 100 MWe Central Receiver-AHS Cycle cogeneration power plant is discussed in detail; cycle analysis, preliminary cost estimates, and unit energy costs are discussed.     

Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

To meet Turkey’s growing energy demand, the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey’s total primary energy supply (TPES) of from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected grow from 1 quad (1.06–2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79–8.5) in 2020 (1 QUAD=293.071 TWh). Turkey’s limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr⁻¹ of about 30 years. Turkey’s reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity, national environmental degradation, and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr⁻¹ (495.4 TWh yr⁻¹) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr⁻¹ (196.7 TWh yr⁻¹) of biomass energy, 0.42 quads yr⁻¹ (124 TWh yr⁻¹) of hydropower, 0.35 quads yr⁻¹ (102.3 TWh yr⁻¹) of solar energy, 0.17 quads yr⁻¹ (50 TWh yr⁻¹) of wind energy, and 0.08 quads yr⁻¹ (22.4 TWh yr⁻¹) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey’s total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010, respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey’s land resources.