Prequential and Cross-Validated Regression Estimation

Prequential model selection and delete-one cross-validation are data-driven methodologies for choosing between rival models on the basis of their predictive abilities. For a given set of observations, the predictive ability of a model is measured by the model's accumulated prediction error and by the model's average-out-of-sample prediction error, respectively, for prequential model selection and for cross-validation. In this paper, given i.i.d. observations, we propose nonparametric regression estimators—based on neural networks—that select the number of hidden units (or neurons) using either prequential model selection or delete-one cross-validation. As our main contributions: (i) we establish rates of convergence for the integrated mean-squared errors in estimating the regression function using off-line or batch versions of the proposed estimators and (ii) we establish rates of convergence for the time-averaged expected prediction errors in using on-line versions of the proposed estimators. We also present computer simulations (i) empirically validating the proposed estimators and (ii) empirically comparing the proposed estimators with certain novel prequential and cross-validated mixture regression estimators.     

Regenerative simulation of response times in networks of queues: statistical efficiency

Summary This paper deals with the statistical efficiency of estimation methods for passage times in closed, multiclass networks of queues with priorities. Informally, a passage time is the time for a job to traverse a portion of the network. Such quantities are important in computer and communication system models, and in this context, quantities other than mean values are of interest. We consider here the efficiencies of the marked job method for passage time simulation (based on the tracking of a distinguished job) and the decomposition method in which observed passage times for all of the jobs enter in the construction of point and interval estimates. We show that the decomposition method is superior in that, for simulations of equal length, it produces tighter confidence intervals. We also calculate theoretical values for variance constants entering into central limit theorems used to obtain confidence intervals for mean passage times. These results provide a means of quantifying the relative efficiency of the decomposition method.     

Enhancing the performance of an agent-based manufacturing system through learning and forecasting

Agent-based technology has been identified as an important approach for developing next generation manufacturing systems. One of the key techniques needed for implementing such advanced systems will be learning. This paper first discusses learning issues in agent-based manufacturing systems and reviews related approaches, then describes how to enhance the performance of an agent-based manufacturing system through learning from history (based on distributed case-based learning and reasoning) and learning from the future (through system forecasting simulation). Learning from history is used to enhance coordination capabilities by minimizing communication and processing overheads. Learning from the future is used to adjust promissory schedules through forecasting simulation, by taking into account the shop floor interactions, production and transportation time. Detailed learning and reasoning mechanisms are described and partial experimental results are presented.     

End-to-end communications management using TMN “X” interfaces

The ongoing integration of LANs and WANs to support global communications and businesses and the emergence of integrated broadband communication services has created an increased demand for cooperation between customers, network and service providers to achieve end-to-end service management. Such a cooperation between autonomous authorities, each defining their own administrative management domains, requires the application of an open standardized framework to facilitate and regulate interworking. Such a framework is given by the ITU-T recommendations on TMN, where the so-called X interface is of particular importance for inter-domain management. In this paper, we explain the role of the TMN X interface within an inter-domain TMN architecture supporting end-to-end communications management. We identify the important issues that need to be addressed for the definition and realization of TMN X interfaces and report about our practical experiences with the implementation of TMN X interfaces in the PREPARE project.     

Elderly Japanese computer users: assessing changes in usage,attitude, and skill transfer over a one-year period

Changes and interrelations among computer usage, computer attitude, and skill transfer of elderly Japanese computer users were investigated over a one-year period. Each participant, aged 60 to 76 years, was provided with one touchscreen-based computer specialized for e-mail handling for 12 months. Participants usage of the computer, mouse and/or keyboard, and computer attitudes were investigated. The results showed that the Liking factor of the computer attitude scale was a possible predictor of computer usage. The results suggested the existence of four different types of users adaptation to computers, according to a combination of the Liking and Confidence dimensions of computer attitude.     

Parallel complexity of logical query programs

We consider the parallel time complexity of logic programs without function symbols, called logical query programs, or Datalog programs. We give a PRAM algorithm for computing the minimum model of a logical query program, and show that for programs with the polynomial fringe property, this algorithm runs in time that is logarithmic in the input size, assuming that concurrent writes are allowed if they are consistent. As a result, the linear and piecewise linear classes of logic programs are inN C. Then we examine several nonlinear classes in which the program has a single recursive rule that is an elementary chain. We show that certain nonlinear programs are related to GSM mappings of a balanced parentheses language, and that this relationship implies the polynomial fringe property; hence such programs are inN C Finally, we describe an approach for demonstrating that certain logical query programs are log space complete forP, and apply it to both elementary single rule programs and nonelementary programs.Supported by NSF Grant IST-84-12791, a grant of IBM Corporation, and ONR contract N00014-85-C-0731.     

Parallel geometric algorithms on a mesh-connected computer

We show that a number of geometric problems can be solved on a n × n mesh-connected computer (MCC) inO(n) time, which is optimal to within a constant factor, since a nontrivial data movement on an MCC requires (n) time. The problems studied here include multipoint location, planar point location, trapezoidal decomposition, intersection detection, intersection of two convex polygons, Voronoi diagram, the largest empty circle, the smallest enclosing circle, etc. TheO(n) algorithms for all of the above problems are based on the classical divide-and-conquer problem-solving strategy.This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant DCR 8420814. A preliminary version was presented in the 1987 FJCC, Dallas, TX.     

Self-Repairing Mechanical Systems

This paper reviews several types of self-repairing systems developed in the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory. We have developed a modular system capable of self-assembly and self-repair. The former means a set of units can form a given shape of the system without outside help; the latter means the system restores the original shape if an arbitrary part of the system is cut off. We show both two-dimensional and three-dimensional unit designs, and distributed algorithms for the units.     

Alternative human role in manufacturing

The limits of Taylorism are alive and well in today's manufacturing systems. Automation does have to constrain human ability creativity, judgement and skill, and undermine human dignity. The paper presents an interactive concept of manufacturing. Human-Oriented Manufacturing Systems (HOMS), which aims to achieve high flexibility and quality of production while creating an environment for happy working and joyful living.Presented at conference on Ecology of Science and Technology, Japan Science Foundation, Tokyo, 1992.     

A WWW‐assisted fax system for Internet fax‐to‐fax communication

This paper describes a WWWassisted fax system (WAX) that is developed to provide reliable and enhanced Internet faxtofax communication. It integrates the easytouse WWW interface with conventional faxing procedures, resulting in an Internet fax system which not only circumvents the cost of long distance fax charges but also adds enhanced functionality not otherwise possible. The WAX system comprises two gateways, namely, the FaxIn and the FaxOut Gateways. The FaxIn Gateway accepts fax messages over Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) and stores them in a transit database. The system interfaces with the user over the WWW to provide access to his stored faxes, with the basic ability to send them out over the Internet to recipients. The FaxOut Gateway receives fax files from the FaxIn Gateway through the Internet and transmits them out to the intended recipients via the local PSTN. WAX users do not require any additional hardware except for a fax machine and a personal computer with Internet connectivity to gain access to WAX via any WWW browser. In addition, WAX provides a host of other enhanced features such as the ability to construct minifaxes from a single incoming fax as well as dynamically attach cover notes to outgoing faxes.     

Eine bedingte Form der Integral-Ungleichung von Gronwall,leichte Verallgemeinerung eines Stabilitätssatzes von Perron und überlauffreie Skalierung von Analogrechenschaltungen

Zusammenfassung Es geht in dieser Arbeit in der Hauptsache darum, ein vorgelegtes Differentialgleichungssystem so zu skalieren, daß in der zugehörigen Analogrechnerschaltung die Spannungen an den Ausgängen der Integratoren die durch die Referenzspannung einerseits und durch das Auflösevermögen andererseits gesetzten Schranken nicht über- bzw. unterschreiten. Es werden Abschätzungssätze hergeleitet, die diese Frage im Apriori-Sinn, also ohne die Lösung des Differentialgleichungssystems zu kennen, zu lösen gestatten. Zur Abschätzung werden zunächst Normen, dannKamke-Normen verwendet. Der im Titel erwähnte Satz vonPerron ergibt sich durch spezielle Normengebung und Verzicht auf Abschätzung nach unten. Erschwert werden die Betrachtungen durch die relative Schwäche der Forderung, daß die rechte Seite des Systemsdx/dt=f(x,t) der Bedingung aus xa folgt f(x,t)v(t)x genüge (...:=Norm,a positiv reell). Dadurch scheint es bei Abschätzungen mitKamke-Normen nicht mehr möglich, von den in der Literatur über Existenzbeweise und Abschätzungssätze üblichen Methoden Gebrauch zu machen. Zur Lösung dieser Frage wird eine bedingte Form des bekannten Satzes vonGronwall (auch Satz vonBellman genannt) entwickelt.

---

A conditional version of the integral inequality of gronwall, a slight generalization of a stability theorem of perron, and overflow-free scaling of analogue computer set-ups

Summary The main subject of this paper is the scaling of a given set of differential equations in such a way that the output voltages of the integrators of the associated analogue computer set-up do not exceed certain upper and lower bounds imposed by the reference voltage and the limited power of resolution of the elements of the analogue computer. The paper gives a priori bounds on the solution of the differential set. Some of these bounds work with norms, others withKamke-norms.Perron's stability theorem mentioned in the title of this paper results by inserting special norms and neglecting lower bounds. A difficulty arises by the relative weakness of the condition xa implies f(x,t)v(t)x on the right hand side of the setdx/dt=f(x,t), where ... is any norm anda is a positive real constant. As a consequence of this, it seems no longer possible to use the usual techniques known from the literature on existence theorems and bounds for the solution of differential equations. To cope with this situation, a conditional version of the well-known theorem ofGronwall (also known by the name of Lemma ofBellman) will be derived.

---

Diese Arbeit ist Teil einer am Institut für Angewandte Mathematik der Technischen Hochschule München unter Anleitung von Herrn o. Prof. Dr. rer. nat. habil.J. Heinhold angefertigten Dissertation.     

Information and pragmatic value-adding: Language games and information science

This paper discusses terms which are of mutual importance to the fields of information science and computer science. Specifically we discuss the notions of information and knowledge: their interrelationships as well as their differences, and the concept of value-adding. Concrete examples are used in the discussion.Rainer Kuhlen is professor of Information Science at the University of Konstanz.     

Decomposition of Methods and Parallelization of Algorithms for Solving Aerodynamics and Physical Gas Dynamics Problems: Computer System Potok-3

This paper is aimed at developing modern computer technologies and methods of concurrent programming designed to improve the efficiency of solving fundamental scientific and applied problems of numerical simulation in aerodynamics and physical gas dynamics. Theoretical issues concerning the design of aircraft involving large amounts of computations are also examined. This paper is focused on theoretical issues of paralleling available methods and algorithms for solving complex integro-differential systems of equations. A number of paralleling methods are considered based on various types of decomposition of the original problem into several subproblems that can be solved concurrently (decomposition by physicomathematical processes of the technological chain of computations and by the corresponding processes that can be performed concurrently (horizontal paralleling), and decomposition by the computational geometric domains and by the corresponding processes that can be performed concurrently (vertical paralleling)). The efficiency of these methods is compared and the optimal paralleling method is found. The results of the theoretical study are used in developing the third-generation package of programs for solving aerodynamics and gas dynamics problems called Potok-3.     

Constraint Propagation and Decomposition Techniques for Highly Disjunctive and Highly Cumulative Project Scheduling Problems

In recent years, constraint satisfaction techniques have been successfully applied to disjunctive scheduling problems, i.e., scheduling problems where each resource can execute at most one activity at a time. Less significant and less generally applicable results have been obtained in the area of cumulative scheduling. Multiple constraint propagation algorithms have been developed for cumulative resources but they tend to be less uniformly effective than their disjunctive counterparts. Different problems in the cumulative scheduling class seem to have different characteristics that make them either easy or hard to solve with a given technique. The aim of this paper is to investigate one particular dimension along which problems differ. Within the cumulative scheduling class, we distinguish between highly disjunctive and highly cumulative problems: a problem is highly disjunctive when many pairs of activities cannot execute in parallel, e.g., because many activities require more than half of the capacity of a resource; on the contrary, a problem is highly cumulative if many activities can effectively execute in parallel. New constraint propagation and problem decomposition techniques are introduced with this distinction in mind. This includes an O(n²) edge-finding algorithm for cumulative resources (where n is the number of activities requiring the same resource) and a problem decomposition scheme which applies well to highly disjunctive project scheduling problems. Experimental results confirm that the impact of these techniques varies from highly disjunctive to highly cumulative problems. In the end, we also propose a refined version of the edge-finding algorithm for cumulative resources which, despite its worst case complexity in O(n³) , performs very well on highly cumulative instances.     

Proof strategies in linear logic

Linear logic, introduced by J.-Y. Girard, is a refinement of classical logic providing means for controlling the allocation of resources. It has aroused considerable interest from both proof theorists and computer scientists. In this paper we investigate methods for automated theorem proving in propositional linear logic. Both the bottom-up (tableaux) and top-down (resolution) proof strategies are analyzed. Various modifications of sequent rules and efficient search strategies are presented along with the experiments performed with the implemented theorem provers.     

A Fermat-like Principle for Chemical Reactions in Heterogeneous Systems

We formulate a variational principle of Fermat type for chemical kinetics in heterogeneous reacting systems. The principle is consistent with the notion of intrinsic reaction coordinate (IRC), the idea of chemical resistance (CR) and the second law of thermodynamics. The Lagrangian formalism applies a nonlinear functional of entropy production that follows from classical (single-phase) nonequilibrium thermodynamics of chemically reacting systems or its extension for multiphase systems involving interface reactions and transports. For a chemical flux, a law of bending is found which implies that — by minimizing the total resistance — the chemical ray spanned between two given points takes the shape assuring its relatively large part in a region of lower chemical resistivity (a rarer region of the medium). In effect, the chemical flux bends into the direction that ensures its shape consistent with the longest residence of the chemical complex in regions of lower resistivity. The dynamic programming method quantifies the chemical rays and related wavefronts along the reaction coordinate.     

Theory of edge perception for computer vision feedback control

In this paper, the authors address the problem of edge-perception for its applications to vision-feedback control in robotic systems.In natural vision, the recognition of objects takes place through the process consisting of eye system, neural networks and cognition. The cognitive process, in turn yields a phenomenon known as perception. This is the phenomenon of perception of physical attributes, such as edges, color and texture, etc., which is responsible for the recognition of objects through the natural vision processes.In this paper, we make an attempt to postulate the theory of perception for gray-level images. The gray-level images, when going through the cognitive and perception processes, are contaminated by the uncertainty; here we call it cognitive uncertainty.The studies in this paper are confined to the phenomenon of edge-perception for two-dimensional gray-level images, however, these studies can be extended to other types of visual attributes both in two-dimensional and three-dimensional spaces. Indeed, the perception of these attributes, which attempts to emulate the human vision system, may help in the design of a truly robust computer vision-feedback control system for robotic applications.     

The role of “craft language” in learning “Waza”

The role of craft language in the process of teaching (learning) Waza (skill) will be discussed from the perspective of human intelligence.It may be said that the ultimate goal of learning Waza in any Japanese traditional performance is not the perfect reproduction of the teaching (learning) process of Waza. In fact, a special metaphorical language (craft language) is used, which has the effect of encouraging the learner to activate his creative imagination. It is through this activity that the he learns his own habitus (Kata).It is suggested that, in considering the difference of function between natural human intelligence and artificial intelligence, attention should be paid to the imaginative activity of the learner as being an essential factor for mastering Kata.This article is a modified English version of Chapter 5 of my bookWaza kara shiru (Learning from Skill), Tokyo University Press, 1987, pp. 93–105.     

Deterministic sequential functions

The simple rational partial functions accepted by generalized sequential machines are shown to coincide with the compositions _P ^–1 , where _P consists of the prefix codings. The rational functions accepted by generalized sequential machines are proved to coincide with the compositions _P ^–1 , where is the family of endmarkers and is the family of removals of endmarkers. (The compositions are read from left to right). We also show that _P ^–1 is the family of the subsequential functions.This work was partially supported by the Esprit Basic Research Action Working Group No. 3166 ASMICS, the CNRS and the Academy of Finland     

Modelling structures in generic space, a condition for adaptiveness of monitoring cognitive agent

The adaptiveness of agents is one of the basic conditions for the autonomy. This paper describes an approach of adaptiveness forMonitoring Cognitive Agents based on the notion of generic spaces. This notion allows the definition of virtual generic processes so that any particular actual process is then a simple configuration of the generic process, that is to say a set of values of parameters. Consequently, generic domain ontology containing the generic knowledge for solving problems concerning the generic process can be developed. This lead to the design of Generic Monitoring Cognitive Agent, a class of agent in which the whole knowledge corpus is generic. In other words, modeling a process within a generic space becomes configuring a generic process and adaptiveness becomes genericity, that is to say independence regarding technology. In this paper, we present an application of this approach on Sachem, a Generic Monitoring Cognitive Agent designed in order to help the operators in operating a blast furnace. Specifically, the NeuroGaz module of Sachem will be used to present the notion of a generic blast furnace. The adaptiveness of Sachem can then be noted through the low cost of the deployment of a Sachem instance on different blast furnaces and the ability of NeuroGaz in solving problem and learning from various top gas instrumentation.