中国能源地缘政治的战略定位与对策

中国经济持续高速增长和对国外能源需求的不断增加,对全球能源政治格局产生重要冲击,进而使得构建清晰和有效的中国能源地缘政治战略显得迫切而必要。本文界定了中国能源地缘政治战略的定位和原则,并提出了四大战略任务:(1)建立安全可靠的国内能源供应体系,增强我国能源地缘政治优势,在对外交往合作中处于有利地位;(2)建立多元化利用全球资源的国外能源供应体系;(3)建设海陆并举、贯穿东西南北的油气安全运输体系;(4)建立亚洲能源贸易与国际合作体系,实现能源产品的有序进出口。在此基础上,探讨未来中国能源地缘政治的战略对策。     

亚太地缘政治视野中的“能源合作”

只要有国家存在,能源就始终不会成为一种纯粹的商品,因此在国家之间能源合作和贸易背后总能看到地缘政治的影子。     

世界能源市场动向和中国、印度面临的挑战

当前，世界能源市场形势复杂多变。一些大国为维护自身的地缘政治和经济利益，正加紧控制全球的能源供应来源；许多发展中国家为发展经济，摆脱贫穷，也在积极寻找能源，世界范围内的能源争夺越发明显。加之目前多数能源供应国的政治经济局势动荡，突发事件不断出现，致使国际油价始终在高位上徘徊。     

中国面临能源挑战,制定合理能源战略势在必行

《嘹望》周刊发表国务院发展研究中心副主任陈清泰的文章《中国国家能源战略和政策》，指出中国能源利用效率在过去20年中有大幅度提高，但仍面临过度依赖化石燃料、继续提高能源利用效率、环境保护、石油安全方面的挑战。因此，合理的能源战略至关重要。     

入世后我国能源面临的挑战与对策

着重阐述了中国入世后，中国能源面临的主要挑战：能源资源相对短缺、能源消耗率高等，在充分利用世界贸易组织规则的基础上，趋利弃弊，提出了能源开发与节约并重，科技创新，以提高国际竞争力为核心的应对对策。     

国际能源格局现三重变化

受中东地缘政治形势和日本核电危机的影响，国际能源格局将出现重大调整，化石能源与可再生能源矛盾凸显。     

经济和能源地缘格局变化及中美战略对策

本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、"重返亚洲"的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。     

我国能源投融资现状及面临的机遇与挑战

本文分析讨论了我国能源投资规模、融资渠道的变化;能源融资机制与体制的历史沿革;以及当前我国能源投融资所面临的机遇与挑战。研究最后指出,当前我国能源行业面临的挑战主要有以下几个方面,在投融资监管机制、法律法规体系完善、金融市场发育程度、能源市场化程度、投资渠道和资金结构等方面都存在很大的挑战。     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

德国实现能源转型的措施与挑战

德国于2010年9月发布《能源方案》,提出到2050年完成"能源转型",实现以可再生能源为主的能源供应系统。《能源方案》中德国政府还决定延长核电站运营年数,将核能作为可再生能源发展成熟之前的过渡技术。2011年3月福岛核事故的发生使德国政府再次决定彻底放弃核能,加速进入可再生能源时代。本文介绍了《能源方案》中推动"能源转型"的各项政策措施,分析了德国在实现这一宏伟目标过程中将面临的挑战。     

《世界能源展望2009》对我国的启示

本文分析了《世界能源展望2009》中有关450情景对我国参与气候变化的主要影响,指出该情景的减排基准过高,情景中描述的全球减排协议标准对我国工业及交通行业发展影响巨大,所规定的从2021年开始给主要发展中国家实施碳排放总量限额将全面影响我国经济发展。     

The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China

The paper briefly summarizes China’s energy situation and sustainable development strategy as they were by 2009. The energy consumption in 2009 is reported to be 3.1 billion tons standard coal equivalent, 1/7 of the world total, 6.3% higher than in the year 2008, and its share of world CO₂ emissions increased rapidly to 20.3% in 2006. These trends are most likely to continue with China’s plan to accomplish its social and economy development goals. To address these problems and also respond to increasing world pressure for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the Chinese government plans and has legislated promotion of energy conservation, efficiency, renewable energy technologies and use, and reduction of energy-related environmental impacts to reduce energy intensity by 20% during the 2006-2010 period, and to reduce the CO₂ emission/GDP ratio by 40-45% by 2020 relative to 2005. China is facing severe energy-related challenges that conflict resources shortages with the planned rapid economic development, energy use with the related environmental pollution, and new technology with the old production/consumption patterns. It is recognized that energy development must, however, follow a sustainable path to coordinate economy growth, social development, and environmental protection.     

Energy conservation investments: A comparison between China and the US

Growth in energy consumption in China has soared from 2001 to 2004, driven largely by a booming economy and heavy investment in infrastructure and housing. In response, China has poured billions of dollars of investment in building power plants—at a rate of one large power plant (1000 MW) per week. In fact, China in 2004 has added the entire generating capacity of California or Spain in a single year. In contrast, investment in energy conservation projects has weakened considerably in recent years. This paper examines trends in energy efficiency investments in China and the US. The comparison highlights the potential of energy conservation investments in addressing China's current energy crisis as well as the inadequacy of such investments in China. Finally, the paper outlines a few scenarios for appropriate levels of investments in energy efficiency in China in the future.     

中国节能的成效、挑战与机遇

"十一五"以来,我国采取了技术、经济、行政、法规等多项政策措施,大力加强节能工作,节能工作成效卓著,单位产值能耗下降,技术节能贡献增大,节能对保障经济增长起到了重要作用,为应对全球气候变化做出了重大贡献。面对未来,节能减排压力增大,节能工作面临严峻挑战。未来十年将是经济社会转型期和能源结构调整期,必将为进一步推进节能工作带来新的机遇。     

我国绿色建筑发展现状、挑战及政策建议

我国"十二五"期间要大力发展绿色建筑,发展绿色建筑是转变城乡建设模式和建筑业发展方式的重要举措,我国目前尚处于自愿发展的起步阶段,绿色建筑相关的法规制度、标准、激励政策、技术支撑等还不健全,本文提出今后要明确绿色建筑发展的方向和目标,因地制宜,并从法规、标准、政策、监管等各方面,全面促进绿色建筑的发展。本文重点解读了绿色建筑的内涵,阐述了我国发展绿色建筑的重要意义,分析了我国绿色建筑发展的现状和面临的挑战,并提出政策建议。     

新理念引领能源高质量发展

近两年在新发展理念引领下,能源高质量发展取得了显著成果。本文从能源生产、节能降耗、污染治理、技术创新、国际合作、体制改革等六个方面,系统阐述了能源在保障国家经济安全、支撑生态文明建设和应对气候变化、助力共建人类命运共同体等方面的卓越成绩。在建国70周年之际,展望了进一步深化能源革命、树立高质量发展"中国样本"的美好前景。     

Towards decentralization: Energy planning in Guangdong,PR China

Even before the recently announced Chinese decentralization policy, Guangdong Province had been given substantially increased autonomy in international cooperation and financial and investment planning. For the energy sector, where decentralization is only partial, it is shown that constraining factors inhibit full exhaustion of Guangdong's autonomy. Administrative structures and processes have not yet been adapted to the requirements of decentralized planning, especially regarding horizontal communication, information and coordination. Furthermore, coexistence of centralized and decentralized responsibilities reinforces inertial tendencies within provincial institutions. However, scope exists for the Province to utilize its planning autonomy more fully, through realigning structure and processes of provincial energy planning institutions.