In-depth analysis of accidental oil spills from tankers in the context of global spill trends from all sources

This study gives a global overview of accidental oil spills from all sources (> or =700t) for the period 1970-2004, followed by a detailed examination of trends in accidental tanker spills. The present analysis of the number and volume of tanker spills includes temporal and spatial spill trends, aspects of spill size distribution as well as trends of key factors (i.e., flag state, hull type, tanker age, accident cause and sensitivity of location). Results show that the total number and volume of tanker spills have significantly decreased since the 1970s, which is in contrast to increases in maritime transport of oil and to popular perceptions following recent catastrophic events. However, many spills still occur in ecologically sensitive locations because the major maritime transport routes often cross the boundaries of the Large Marine Ecosystems, but the substantially lower total spill volume is an important contribution to potentially reduce overall ecosystem impacts. In summary, the improvements achieved in the past decades have been the result of a set of initiatives and regulations implemented by governments, international organizations and the shipping industry.     

Model of spills and fires from LNG and oil tankers

A comprehensive model for predicting the dynamics of spills from LNG and oil product tankers is constructed from fluid mechanics principles and empirical properties of oil and LNG spills on water. The analysis utilizes the significant tanker hold and discharge flow area dimensions to specify the cargo liquid outflow history and the ensuing pool characteristics, including the establishment of a pool fire. The pool fire area, duration, and heat release rate are determined as functions of the tanker cargo variables. Examples of an LNG and gasoline spill show that for likely discharge flow areas these spills may be regarded as instantaneous, simplifying the evaluation of risk consequences.     

Risk-based maintenance--techniques and applications

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions.     

Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil

Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments. Exposure of aquatic habitats and organisms to whole oil and toxic components is estimated in the biological model, followed by estimation of resulting acute mortality and ecological losses. Natural resource damages are based on estimated costs to restore equivalent resources and/or ecological services, using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) and Resource Equivalency Analysis (REA) methods. Oil spill modeling was performed for two spill sites in central San Francisco Bay, three spill sizes (20th, 50th, and 95th percentile volumes from tankers and larger freight vessels, based on an analysis of likely spill volumes given a spill has occurred) and four oil types (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The scenarios were run in stochastic mode to determine the frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation of fates, impacts, and damages. This work is significant as it demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method for estimating potential impacts and financial consequences that may be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses. The statistically-defined spill volumes and consequences provide an objective measure of the magnitude, range and variability of impacts to wildlife, aquatic organisms and shorelines for potential spills of four oil/fuel types, each having distinct environmental fates and effects.     

Modeling the effectiveness of oil combating from an ecological perspective--a Bayesian network for the Gulf of Finland; the Baltic Sea

Maritime traffic poses a major threat to marine ecosystems in the form of oil spills. The Gulf of Finland, the easternmost part of the Baltic Sea, has witnessed a rapid increase in oil transportation during the last 15 years. Should a spill occur, the negative ecological impacts may be reduced by oil combating, the effectiveness of which is, however, strongly dependent on prevailing environmental conditions and available technical resources. This poses increased uncertainty related to ecological consequences of future spills. We developed a probabilistic Bayesian network model that can be used to assess the effectiveness of different oil combating strategies in minimizing the negative effects of oil on six species living in the Gulf of Finland. The model can be used for creating different accident scenarios and assessing the performance of various oil combating actions under uncertainty, which enables its use as a supportive tool in decision-making. While the model is confined to the western Gulf of Finland, the methodology is adaptable to other marine areas facing similar risks and challenges related to oil spills.     

Using transportation accident databases to investigate ignition and explosion probabilities of flammable spills

Risk assessment of hazardous material spill scenarios, and quantitative risk assessment in particular, make use of event trees to account for the possible outcomes of hazardous releases. Using event trees entails the definition of probabilities of occurrence for events such as spill ignition and blast formation. This study comprises an extensive analysis of ignition and explosion probability data proposed in previous work. Subsequently, the results of the survey of two vast US federal spill databases (HMIRS, by the Department of Transportation, and MINMOD, by the US Coast Guard) are reported and commented on. Some tens of thousands of records of hydrocarbon spills were analysed. The general pattern of statistical ignition and explosion probabilities as a function of the amount and the substance spilled is discussed. Equations are proposed based on statistical data that predict the ignition probability of hydrocarbon spills as a function of the amount and the substance spilled. Explosion probabilities are put forth as well. Two sets of probability data are proposed: it is suggested that figures deduced from HMIRS be used in land transportation risk assessment, and MINMOD results with maritime scenarios assessment. Results are discussed and compared with previous technical literature.     

Design of marine structures with improved safety for environment

The paper describes a method for design of marine structures with increased safety for environment, considering also the required investment costs as well as the aspects of risk distribution onto the maritime stakeholders. Practically, the paper seeks to answer what is the optimal amount that should be invested into certain safety measure for any given vessel. Due to the uneven distribution of risk, as well as the differing impact of costs emerging from safety improvements, stakeholders experience conflicting ranking of alternatives. To solve this multi-stakeholder decision-making problem, in which each stakeholder is a decision-maker, the method applies concepts of group decision-making theory, namely the Game Theory. The method fosters axiomatic definition of the optimum solution, arguing that the solution, or the final selected design, should satisfy the non-dominance, efficiency, and fairness. These three are thoroughly discussed in terms of structural design, especially the latter. Considering the coupling of environmental risk and structural design, the method also builds on the preference structure of four maritime stakeholders: yards, owners, oil receivers and the public, who either share the risks or directly influence structural design. Method is presented on a practical study of structural design of a tanker with a crashworthy side structure that is capable of reducing the risk of collision. The outcome of this study outlines a number of possibilities for successful improvement of tanker safety that can benefit, concurrently, all maritime stakeholders.     

Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections

The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss.     

A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics

A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.     

Analysing the risk of LNG carrier operations

This paper presents a generic, high-level risk assessment of the global operation of ocean-going liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The analysis collects and combines information from several sources such as an initial hazid, a thorough review of historic LNG accidents, review of previous studies, published damage statistics and expert judgement, and develops modular risk models for critical accident scenarios. In accordance with these risk models, available information from different sources has been structured in the form of event trees for different generic accident categories. In this way, high-risk areas pertaining to LNG shipping operations have been identified. The major contributions to the risk associated with LNG shipping are found to stem from five generic accident categories, i.e. collision, grounding, contact, fire and explosion, and events occurring while loading or unloading LNG at the terminal. Of these, collision risk was found to be the highest. According to the risk analysis presented in this paper, both the individual and the societal risk level associated with LNG carrier operations lie within the As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) area, meaning that further risk reduction should be required only if available cost-effective risk control options could be identified. This paper also includes a critical review of the various components of the risk models and hence identifies areas of improvements and suggests topics for further research.     

Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents

Minor bicycle accidents are defined as “bicycle accidents not involving death or heavily injured persons, implying that possible hospital visits last less than 24 hours”. Statistics about these accidents and related injuries are very poor, because they are mostly not reported to police, hospitals or insurance companies. Yet, they form a major share of all bicycle accidents. Official registrations underestimate the number of minor accidents and do not provide cost data, nor the distance cycled. Therefore related policies are hampered by a lack of accurate data.This paper provides more insight into the importance of minor bicycle accidents and reports the frequency, risk and resulting costs of minor bicycle accidents. Direct costs, including the damage to bike and clothes as well as medical costs and indirect costs such as productivity loss and leisure time lost are calculated. We also estimate intangible costs of pain and psychological suffering and costs for other parties involved in the accident. Data were collected during the SHAPES project using several electronic surveys. The weekly prospective registration that lasted a year, covered 1187 persons that cycled 1,474,978 km. 219 minor bicycle accidents were reported. Resulting in a frequency of 148 minor bicycle accidents per million kilometres. We analyzed the economic costs related to 118 minor bicycle accidents in detail. The average total cost of these accidents is estimated at 841 euro (95% CI: 579–1205) per accident or 0.125 euro per kilometre cycled. Overall, productivity loss is the most important component accounting for 48% of the total cost. Intangible costs, which in past research were mostly neglected, are an important burden related to minor bicycle accidents (27% of the total cost). Even among minor accidents there are important differences in the total cost depending on the severity of the injury.     

On the use of risk acceptance criteria in the offshore oil and gas industry

Risk acceptance criteria, as upper limits of acceptable risks, have been used for offshore activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for more than 20 years. The common thinking has been that risk analyses and assessments cannot be conducted in a meaningful way without the use of such criteria. The ALARP principle also applies, but the risk acceptance criteria have played a more active role in the assessment processes than seen for example in the UK. Recently there has, however, been a discussion about the suitability of risk acceptance criteria to assess and control risks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by presenting and discussing a risk analysis regime that is not based on the use of risk acceptance criteria at all. We believe that we can do better if cost-effectiveness (in a wide sense) is the ruling thinking rather than adoption of pre-defined risk acceptance limits. This means a closer resemblance with the ALARP principle as adopted in the UK and other countries, but is not a direct application of this practice. Also the building blocks of the common way of applying the ALARP principle are reviewed. The Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point, but the discussion is to large extent general.     

Wireless Sensor for Continuous Real-Time Oil Spill Thickness and Location Measurement

Marine pollution by oil spills is a devastating environmental hazard, requiring a low-cost efficient system for continuous and real-time thickness measurement and localization of oil. Knowing that none of the previous detection methods has managed to fully meet these requirements, it is necessary to devise a new technique for guiding and speeding up the clean-up process of oil spills. This paper presents a sensor device that is capable of sensing, processing, and transmitting information about an oil spill (location and thickness). This paper discusses two new methodologies of detection based on the difference in the absorbance spectral signatures and electric conductivity properties of oil and water. This paper also discusses the mechanical design of the device, the hardware implementation of its components, and the integration and evaluation of the whole system. The experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method under different lighting, salinity, temperature, and sea conditions.      

Spread of large LNG pools on the sea

A review of the standard model of LNG pool spreading on water, comparing it with the model and experiments on oil pool spread from which the LNG model is extrapolated, raises questions about the validity of the former as applied to spills from marine tankers. These questions arise from the difference in fluid density ratios, in the multi-dimensional flow at the pool edge, in the effects of LNG pool boiling at the LNG–water interface, and in the model and experimental initial conditions compared with the inflow conditions from a marine tanker spill. An alternate supercritical flow model is proposed that avoids these difficulties; it predicts significant increase in the maximum pool radius compared with the standard model and is partially corroborated by tests of LNG pool fires on water. Wind driven ocean wave interaction has little effect on either spread model.     

A high-level synthesis of oil spill response equipment and countermeasures

This paper presents an operational synthesis of major oil spill response methods (mechanical, chemical, etc.) and the corresponding oil response equipment for sea context (booms, skimmers, etc.). We focus on important features of oil spill response, in order to formulate a decision-based database, capable of supporting the development of a complete oil spill response operation. Moreover, we classify these findings and introduce simple formatting and standards to supply predictive tools for oil spill models. The actual goal of this paper is to come up with a decision-driven process, which can provide for a realistic choice of oil spill response equipment in the design of the primary oil response phase. This is intended to lead to a prompt, logical, and well-prepared oil spill response operation satisfying time and cost criteria and protecting the marine environment.     

Head injury prediction capability of the HIC, HIP, SIMon and ULP criteria

The objective of the present study is to synthesize and investigate using the same set of sixty-one real-world accidents the human head injury prediction capability of the head injury criterion (HIC) and the head impact power (HIP) based criterion as well as the injury mechanisms related criteria provided by the simulated injury monitor (SIMon) and the Louis Pasteur University (ULP) finite element head models. Each accident has been classified according to whether neurological injuries, subdural haematoma and skull fractures were reported. Furthermore, the accidents were reconstructed experimentally or numerically in order to provide loading conditions such as acceleration fields of the head or initial head impact conditions. Finally, thanks to this large statistical population of head trauma cases, injury risk curves were computed and the corresponding regression quality estimators permitted to check the correlation of the injury criteria with the injury occurrences. As different kinds of accidents were used, i.e. footballer, motorcyclist and pedestrian cases, the case-independency could also be checked. As a result, FE head modeling provides essential information on the intracranial mechanical behavior and, therefore, better injury criteria can be computed. It is clearly shown that moderate and severe neurological injuries can only be distinguished with a criterion that is computed using intracranial variables and not with the sole global head acceleration.     

Keys to modeling LNG spills on water

Although no LNG ship has experienced a loss of containment in over 40 years of shipping, it is important for risk management planning to understand the predicted consequences of a spill. A key parameter in assessing the impact of an LNG spill is the pool size. LNG spills onto water generally result in larger pools than land spills because they are unconfined. Modeling of LNG spills onto water is much more difficult than for land spills because the phenomena are more complex and the experimental basis is more limited.

The most prevalent practice in predicting pool sizes is to treat the release as instantaneous or constant-rate, and to calculate the pool size using an empirical evaporation or burn rate. The evaporation or burn rate is particularly difficult to estimate for LNG spills on water, because the available data are so limited, scattered, and difficult to extrapolate to the large releases of interest.

A more effective modeling of possible spills of LNG onto water calculates, rather than estimating, the evaporation or burn rate. The keys to this approach are to:

• Use rigorous multicomponent physical properties.

• Use a time-varying analysis of spill and evaporation.

• Use a material and energy balance approach.

• Estimate the heat transfer from water to LNG in a way that reflects the turbulence.

These keys are explained and demonstrated by predictions of a model that incorporates these features. The major challenges are describing the effects of the LNG–water turbulence and the heat transfer from the pool fire to the underlying LNG pool. The model includes a fundamentally based framework for these terms, and the current formulation is based on some of the largest tests to-date. The heat transfer coefficient between the water and LNG is obtained by applying a “turbulence factor” to the value from correlations for quiescent film and transition boiling. The turbulence factor is based on two of the largest unignited tests on water to-date. The heat transfer from the fire to the pool is based on the burning rate for the largest pool fire test on land to-date.     

Risk based methodology for safety improvements in ports

With the introduction of the Formal Safety Assessment in the International Maritime Organisation decision making process regarding new regulations, and the recent tanker disasters resulting in extensive oil pollution, the public and political pressure to improve safety in ports and the shipping industry has increased. Considering that some kind of Safety Report (case) regulations related to marine operations have not been established, and that the ports and shipping industry are at the onset of safety regimes utilised in other industries, a step wise methodology for safety improvements in ports has been developed. In the first step, the hazard identification and the qualitative risk assessment is carried out to establish hazard barriers which are or should be in place to prevent hazards from being released; the controls for managing these hazards are then developed and integrated into the Safety Management System (SMS). In the second and optional step, the areas of high risk are investigated in detail and the approach for risk quantification discussed. The use of the quantitative risk assessment results is illustrated in two examples.     

An analysis of safety control effectiveness

The cost of injuries and “accidents” to an organisation is very important in establishing how much it should spend on safety control. Despite the usefulness of information about the cost of a company's accidents, it is not customary accounting practice to make these data available. Of the two kinds of costs incurred by a company through occupational injuries and accidents, direct costs and indirect costs; the direct costs are much easier to estimate. However, the uninsured costs are usually more critical and should be estimated by each company. The authors investigate a general model to estimate the above costs and hence to establish efficient safety control. One construction company has been a pilot for this study. By analysing actual company data for three years, it is found that the efficient safety control cost should be 1.2–1.3% of total contract costs.